HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-05-19 05:23 PM - Post#279485
In response to mobrien
OK, then could it be that the committee determines the draw for the weaker of the 2 finalists and slots the winner there regardless?
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mobrien
Senior
Posts: 390
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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03-05-19 05:47 PM - Post#279489
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I don't think so? Princeton got the 12-seed it deserved in 2017, even though it was playing a Yale team in the final that, had it won, probably would have been a 15 or 16 seed given that it only would have had one Quad 2 win (the Ivy final).
Last year, Harvard and Penn both likely would have been 16s, so it doesn't tell us much.
If Yale or Harvard got worse than a 14 seed this year, that would be evidence in support of your theory.
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The Quad
Sophomore
Posts: 137
Reg: 12-16-04
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03-05-19 06:27 PM - Post#279493
In response to mobrien
Agree with HarvardDadGrad. The comment that last year Penn was equivalent to Harvard and should have been a #16 seed I recall is incorrect. According to most pundits & bracketologists, Penn could have gone as high as #13 and likely a #14; Penn was under-seeded. That is why many were predicting Penn as the first #16 to beat a #1 seed, and their low point spread reflected that. That sucked up so much publicity, no one gave UMBC a rat’s chance against Virginia.
My sense is that the NCAA Troglodyte Selection Committee, knowing that Harvard deserved a #16 seed, did not want to do an alternate seeding chart to have Penn, not in a Power 5 conference, especially in the Ivy League, be rightfully slotted.
That is a big disadvantage of have the Ivy League Tournament on Selection Sunday.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3988
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-05-19 06:47 PM - Post#279495
In response to The Quad
Brown is clearly in the best position to get favorable treatment by the Committee .
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mobrien
Senior
Posts: 390
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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03-05-19 06:48 PM - Post#279496
In response to The Quad
My point is, I think the pundits had it wrong last year. Penn had zero — let me repeat, zero — Quad 1 or 2 wins last year. Its best wins were St. Joe's on a neutral court (#116 in Kenpom) and Harvard (#141) twice at home. A team without any Quad 1 or 2 wins was very unlikely to be a 13 or 14.
I defer to mrjames here, but my sense is that the committee almost solely looks at Quad 1 and 2 wins when it's seeding the 13 to 16s.
What made Penn a trendy pick was it had the overall efficiency of a 14 seed, but was a 16. To give you a better idea of that, Wright State was a 14 last year despite having a slightly lower Kenpom rating than Penn (125 vs 133), largely, I'd argue, because it had three Quad 2 wins to Penn's zero.
Georgia State was probably the best example of this. They got a 15 last year despite having a better Kenpom rating (#101) than four of the teams seeded ahead of them. In fact, I think Georgia State might have had one of the three best efficiency margins of any 15 seed in the Kenpom era (so going back to 2002). The problem, once again, was no Quad 1 or 2 wins.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-05-19 11:30 PM - Post#279518
In response to mobrien
Yeah, the 13s thru 16s are usually sorted out by either the Q1 and Q2 wins OR a gaudy W-L record. Penn played most of its games against Q4 teams. Harvard wouldn’t have been in much better shape but at least the win @Penn would have been Q2. I don’t think anyone would have sneezed at either being on the 15 line, but a 16 with those resumes wasn’t all that harsh.
Between Yale having a crazy W-L record (and a decent win against Miami) and Harvard, Princeton and Penn (Brown to a lesser extent with its blowout of SDSU) having the goods in the quality win dept, the entire Ivy Tourney this year should safely be seeded above last year’s rep.
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Bryan
Junior
Posts: 231
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-19 10:16 AM - Post#280122
In response to mrjames
With the Yale and Harvard losses last night the Ivy regular season champ will have at least 4 losses. That has only happened 4 times in league history, 83-84 Princeton, 84-85 Penn, 85-86 Brown and 86-87 Penn. If both Yale and Harvard lose tonight it will be the first time the Ivy champ has 5 losses and only the second 3 way tie for the title.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
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Ivy League Season Champion 03-09-19 11:57 AM - Post#280137
In response to Bryan
HYP each lose in awful performances. Is this a conincidence? What will Y at P look like tonight? Will Princeton play Schwieger? How will Oni, Aiken, Lewis, etc rebound from their worst performances of the year?
Will top seeds go 1-5 this weekend only because someone has to win in Princeton?
If this malaise at the top is endemic to having clinched a Tournament slot after 5 grueling weeks of back to backs, doesn't that add another obstacle for 2 NCAA bids? Can a top 45 team who has come to play for 20+ games now continue the intensity for not just the tournament, but also the final weekend? Throw in midterm exams and papers, injuries, fatigue, and expose teams with little to play for to the dismal environs of desperate teams. Cornell and Princeton gyms were embarrassingly empty and quiet. Of course, what the nations sees is a 4pm game where Princeton holds back a player, commits 25 TO's, and still almost wins.
Have we actually diminished ourselves in the eyes of the national basketball fans by establishing additional hurdles? Doesn't this decrease the likelihood of a second bid? HYP likely saw their KP's drop last night. If any of HYP had been under consideration for an at large bid, last evening might have eliminated that chance.
Last evening we delivered to our fans uninspired and ugly basketball by creating a focus on making the tournament, instead of motivating the competition between the 3 teams eligible to win the regular season. Instead of a possible 3 team tie breaker with playoffs, we'be sublimated that to figuring out which squad finishes 4th.
The folly infected the league yesterday. Unless H or Y decide that they are willing to risk injured or tired players to win the regular season tonight, the only contest is Brown at Penn for 4th place - at 6pm, not televised.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 03-09-19 11:59 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-09-19 11:59 AM - Post#280138
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
You're blaming last night's HYP losses on the tournament? Really?
LOL.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-09-19 12:00 PM - Post#280139
In response to TheLine
Yup.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-09-19 12:01 PM - Post#280140
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Then let's just award HYP teams a participation trophy and call it a day.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-09-19 12:28 PM - Post#280141
In response to TheLine
Try the numbers:
Harvard was 5-3 against non-H/P
Princeton was 8-1 against non-H/Y
Yale was 8-1 against non-H/P
So, these 3 teams were a combined 21-5 against the remainder of the league, but 0-3 last evening.
I believe the probability of these 3 Tournament clinched squads going 0-3 last evening was 0045, or 1 in over 200.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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03-09-19 01:06 PM - Post#280144
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
There is only one "real" benefit that has come out of IvyMadness . When the Tigers went undefeated and won the initial inane IvyMadness, they received a #12 seed for the Big Dance and the strong likelihood is that they would have a received a #13 seed without beating Penn and Yale at the Palestra. If Yale wins IvyMadness this year at home, they may be pushed backed a seed at the Big Dance with their lack luster performance after clinching a spot for this year's inane IvyMadness tournament. Other than that, they are simply no "real" benefits tonight vs. imagined ones.
But I forgot, the players simply LOVE IT!
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-09-19 01:37 PM - Post#280145
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Maybe your teams aren't as good as you think they are. Maybe the non-HYPs are better than you give them credit for,
You have to play all the games. That didn't seem to be an issue last year or the year before. Remember there are no HYP privilege points in basketball.
If you can't beat the 4-5-6 teams in the league then how do you think you're going to fare in the tournament?
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-09-19 02:45 PM - Post#280161
In response to TheLine
Uh, you’re ignoring the stats. All that changed is that this weekend became relatively meaningless for 3 teams. That’s the variable.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-09-19 02:53 PM - Post#280166
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Uh, no.
Maybe you are ignoring the stats? Penn is 2nd in KP in the league, last night's game was close to a toss-up. Brown has a higher KP rating than Princeton and is better than a Cannady-less Princeton.
You could argue that Harvard and Yale have more incentive to land the 2 seed and play Cannady-less Princeton in the first round, but that's it.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-09-19 03:43 PM - Post#280175
In response to TheLine
Let's not forget that Harvard is 2 Bryce Aiken circus shots away from needing a victory tonight to make the conference tournament.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-09-19 03:46 PM - Post#280176
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
There’s a big problem with your logic here. You’re ignoring what the odds were of those teams going 8-1 in the first place. Those teams beat the odds to get where they were. They’ve ended up somewhere pretty close to where the odds said they should be overall at the start of the season (which is why I predicted the league champ would lose at least 3 and quite possibly 4 at the outset of the league season).
I only saw one game last night, but at least as far as Yale is concerned they didn’t look like a team with nothing to play for. Jones, Copeland, and Williams in particular all looked pretty PO’d about what was going on.
These teams are all playing for seeding in both the Ivy tournament and the NCAAs. I find it a little odd that everyone is lamenting the perceived loss of a higher seed allegedly due to the Ivy tournament. If it matters so much, go out and win the dang games, rather than saying your kids lost because they didn’t care.
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Naismith
Sophomore
Posts: 149
Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
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03-09-19 04:26 PM - Post#280180
In response to SomeGuy
One of four potential #15 seeds will get a ticket to move on next week.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-09-19 04:37 PM - Post#280181
In response to SomeGuy
All of these comments still don’t explain the discrepancy and coincidence of teams that were 21-5 dropping all 3 games once they have locked up a spot in the Tournament. This is not a disparagement of any team, just an empirical fact.
Pre-season expectations are superseded by actual performance and now irrelevant.
KP measures OOC which is also now largely irrelevant. Freshmen aren’t freshmen any longer, injured stars have returned, or not, and there have been other roster changes, good and bad.
The tournament is flawed and yesterday is just another example of how it influences things. The concept that HYP are playing for seeding is more than a stretch. Seeding in our tournament is fluid and largely irrelevant. Finishing first doesn’t tell you who you will play as it still could be Princeton, Penn or Brown. The NCAA’s likely could care less how things turn out this weekend - unless it gives the committee an opportunity to shaft the Ivy rep. - again.
Looking frustrated at how you lost is less important that being prepared and focused at the start.
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