palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-13-19 02:01 PM - Post#281037
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/game?g...
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:04 PM - Post#281038
In response to palestra38
Yale 86%:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/game?g...
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:06 PM - Post#281039
In response to palestra38
How do these translate to point spreads?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:08 PM - Post#281040
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
2...and look at this analysis
https://www.legitgamblingsites.com/blog/ivy-league...
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:11 PM - Post#281042
In response to palestra38
And Yale by...8 or so?
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-13-19 02:19 PM - Post#281047
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
The gambler is unaware that Michael Wang will be unavailable for the tournament.
Ever since the U.S. Supreme Court made it easier for states to legalize betting on college sports, I have asked when college coaches from Nick Saban to Tommy Amaker will have the same obligations as their professional colleagues to publicly release honest injury information.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:23 PM - Post#281048
In response to palestra38
Read it carefully. he thinks Yale beat Nova and is a premier defensive team. Ha!
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:27 PM - Post#281049
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
How do these translate to point spreads?
I think Penn opens -1 and Yale opens -8 or 9
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 03:05 PM - Post#281062
In response to Streamers
My guess would be that the Harvard-Penn line might skew a bit toward Harvard (maybe to a PK open) because in these types of situations, they try to move off the true line to make up for the fact that the general betting public might see "better seed an underdog to worse seed" and money might come in unevenly at true odds. And while Vegas usually tries to give the fair line because that's what's most likely to make the money fall evenly (what they want), in situations where they know things will be perceived a certain way, they shade that way to try to get that money to fall evenly.
But Penn is, indeed, a -1.5 or so favorite here.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 03:28 PM - Post#281070
In response to mrjames
My guess would be that the Harvard-Penn line might skew a bit toward Harvard (maybe to a PK open) because in these types of situations, they try to move off the true line to make up for the fact that the general betting public might see "better seed an underdog to worse seed" and money might come in unevenly at true odds. And while Vegas usually tries to give the fair line because that's what's most likely to make the money fall evenly (what they want), in situations where they know things will be perceived a certain way, they shade that way to try to get that money to fall evenly.
But Penn is, indeed, a -1.5 or so favorite here.
So if I understand you correctly, Penn "should" be more of a -2.5 point favorite?
Edited by T.P.F.K.A.D.W. on 03-13-19 03:28 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-13-19 03:36 PM - Post#281076
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Maybe I'm just a sh1tty fan, but I simply cannot find it within myself to feel any sense of confidence about this game. It really comes down to whether the 3s are falling, and that's such a random thing. When Penn is hitting from the perimeter, they can beat any team in the conference by 20+. If not, every game becomes a toss up at best.
I'm going to go out in my back yard on Saturday morning and sacrifice a goat to the basketball gods. We'll see if that helps.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-13-19 03:37 PM - Post#281077
In response to Silver Maple
I'm going to go to shul and daven extra hard. That usually helps. I think sacrificing a goat is probably a bad idea.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-13-19 03:45 PM - Post#281079
In response to Silver Maple
You hit on the key point, when we shoot well from 3, we will blow out anyone in the league. When we don't, we'll be competitive because of our defense, but we can lose to anyone. Over the last 5 games, 4 of which were wins, we were from 3 point range:
Cornell: 11-29 (W: 68-50)
Harvard: 7-26 (L: 59-53)
Dartmouth: 17-30 (W: 65-51)
Yale: 19-34 (W: 77-66)
Brown: 7-31 (W: 58-51)
It is remarkable how consistent is the number of 3s we take. And in the Harvard game, we had the much better open 3s but Harvard hit killers under pressure and we missed the open ones.
It's good to play this game on a neutral court. We certainly can win----eat that goat curry for me.
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1154
Reg: 07-28-07
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03-13-19 03:46 PM - Post#281081
In response to 10Q
I think that offering a sacrifice may be appropriate as this week's parasha is all about sacrifices. You could make the mincha sacrifice - cheaper, more timely with game at 12:30, and done by a nefesh (soul) rather than an adam (person)
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-13-19 03:50 PM - Post#281085
In response to 10Q
I'm going to go to shul and daven extra hard. That usually helps. I think sacrificing a goat is probably a bad idea.
Sorry. I'm afraid it's curtains for Clover. 38 wants rogan josh.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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03-13-19 03:54 PM - Post#281091
In response to 10Q
I'm going to go to shul and daven extra hard. That usually helps. I think sacrificing a goat is probably a bad idea.
::cancels goat order::
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 04:02 PM - Post#281094
In response to SteveChop
But remember: The beis hamikdash is no longer kayam. Since the churban, we may no longer offer karbonos on bamos.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3992
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-13-19 04:04 PM - Post#281096
In response to weinhauers_ghost
I may barbecue a leg of lamb in the back yard after I watch the game on TV. I can afford to buy P'38's ticket prices.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-13-19 04:19 PM - Post#281098
In response to Old Bear
Penn is paper thin right now. Things have to break extremely well to beat Harvard.
If Harvard wins then I promise not to whine that the better team lost due to injuries.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 04:21 PM - Post#281099
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
My guess would be that the Harvard-Penn line might skew a bit toward Harvard (maybe to a PK open) because in these types of situations, they try to move off the true line to make up for the fact that the general betting public might see "better seed an underdog to worse seed" and money might come in unevenly at true odds. And while Vegas usually tries to give the fair line because that's what's most likely to make the money fall evenly (what they want), in situations where they know things will be perceived a certain way, they shade that way to try to get that money to fall evenly.
But Penn is, indeed, a -1.5 or so favorite here.
So if I understand you correctly, Penn "should" be more of a -2.5 point favorite?
I think once the public sees a lower seed that already has two losses to the higher seed open as a favorite, you will see the line go to PK, at least for a while. I would wait for that before taking them.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 04:32 PM - Post#281100
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
No - more that I see Penn as like a "true" 1.5-pt favorite, but that the line might open as a pick for the reasons I mentioned. I think Penn -2.5 would be aggressive toward Penn.
** Insert comment about who knows who will play or be 100% so it's tough to set accurate lines and shouldn't that be outlawed ** - See, Stu, I mentioned it!
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 04:51 PM - Post#281105
In response to 10Q
Some of us in '08 offered karbonos on bamos for Obama.
Score one for old school prayer.
But remember: The beis hamikdash is no longer kayam. Since the churban, we may no longer offer karbonos on bamos.
Edited by penn nation on 03-13-19 04:51 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-13-19 05:17 PM - Post#281116
In response to penn nation
I offered a korban todah when he departed
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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03-13-19 05:23 PM - Post#281117
In response to 10Q
I offered a korban todah when he departed
The new leader broke off and set up an alternate location for offerings in 87665 Mar-a-Lago.
Needless to say, God rejected this Northern Kingdom breakaway shul and its offerings. Its charitable organization was shut down early in its administration.
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LyleGold
PhD Student
Posts: 1712
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-13-19 07:00 PM - Post#281142
In response to 10Q
I offered a korban todah when he departed
I hope it was paired with multiple nesachim - and not just poured over the mizbeach!
I suspect mine would have been quite different than yours - gratitude rather than thank goodness he's gone.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3992
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-13-19 07:14 PM - Post#281146
In response to LyleGold
Are are any other yiddish BB Boards?
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LyleGold
PhD Student
Posts: 1712
Reg: 11-22-04
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ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 07:16 PM - Post#281147
In response to Old Bear
To be technical, it's Hebrew, but to answer your question - not one that includes Penn basketball. For historical perspective, in the Golden Age of Quaker hoops, the majority of Penn fans were Jewish and were also students. Now the majority of Penn fans are cranky old Jews. We save the Yiddish for cursing out the opposition and each other.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-13-19 07:42 PM - Post#281149
In response to LyleGold
Feh. Gornisht
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-13-19 08:15 PM - Post#281161
In response to 10Q
Thankfully I can still follow much of it without resorting to Google translate as a result of my NYC childhood.
Side note: my recently discovered minority Jewish DNA courtesy of ancestry.com reaffirms (and perhaps explains) my status as an old-school Penn hoops fan, even if it is on my father’s side.
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LyleGold
PhD Student
Posts: 1712
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-13-19 08:30 PM - Post#281165
In response to Streamers
Thankfully I can still follow much of it without resorting to Google translate as a result of my NYC childhood.
Side note: my recently discovered minority Jewish DNA courtesy of ancestry.com reaffirms (and perhaps explains) my status as an old-school Penn hoops fan, even if it is on my father’s side.
I was pretty surprised to learn a couple years ago that you were, in fact, a goy. I guess that explains why you never really fly off the handle or go on tirades just to hear yourself talk.
So you spit in the cup and at least discovered a MOTI in the woodpile? I guess that's some consolation.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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03-13-19 09:27 PM - Post#281190
In response to Streamers
I'm a quarter jewish on my mother's side. I remember when grandma used to come and babysit us she would talk with her sisters in english with yiddish interspersed. For the curse words.
Not sure if I'm spelling it right but think it was coccy mun? which meant s*** on him/her or something like that? Wish i could remember some more.
Out of five boys my brother who went to Penn was the only one who looked jewish out of the bunch. Dark curly hair. Maybe he was profiled? 
So count me in as cranky old jew/gentile quaker fan.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-13-19 11:57 PM - Post#281227
In response to OldBig5
I have no idea what you guys are talking about, but Let’s Go Quakers!
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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03-14-19 12:15 AM - Post#281229
In response to Mike Porter
I have no idea what you guys are talking about, but Let’s Go Quakers!
If you get really bored one day, sit down and read the Book of Leviticus. Everything you ever wanted to know about sacrifices, and then some.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-14-19 12:22 AM - Post#281232
In response to penn nation
Wait. We are a favorite? And Harvard beat us twice during the season? Did something happen? It's not because of Towns, is it?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 07:10 AM - Post#281244
In response to Penndemonium
No, because he has not played this year, so had nothing to do with the 2 Harvard wins. I think Penn should have won both of those games-- a giveaway certain win in the first game and we outplayed them for much of the 2nd but simply could not hit the open 3. However, I doubt the linesmakers know that---but the seasonal stats have us looking slightly better.
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Charlie Fog
Masters Student
Posts: 586
Age: 55
Loc: Philly
Reg: 11-12-13
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03-14-19 07:22 AM - Post#281245
In response to Mike Porter
I have no idea what you guys are talking about, but Let’s Go Quakers!
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-14-19 10:17 AM - Post#281262
In response to palestra38
No, because he has not played this year, so had nothing to do with the 2 Harvard wins. I think Penn should have won both of those games-- a giveaway certain win in the first game and we outplayed them for much of the 2nd but simply could not hit the open 3. However, I doubt the linesmakers know that---but the seasonal stats have us looking slightly better.
I gathered that we gave them a good run for the money in both games, but I still don't understand why we would actually be favored. Hope the odds are right!
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-14-19 10:26 AM - Post#281266
In response to Penndemonium
Remember-- the odds are a reflection on how the public will bet, not on what the actual outcome will be.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 11:34 AM - Post#281277
In response to Silver Maple
Opening odds are also based in part on data like KenPom. That has Penn up by .6 - round it up. For all means and purposes, this should be even.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-14-19 12:12 PM - Post#281280
In response to Streamers
Got it. I didn't realize that KenPom also favored us. It is true that the odds reflects betting, but these days there seems to be a fair amount of statistical betters that should close the gap in betting house odds vs. consensus probabilities of winning.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 12:17 PM - Post#281281
In response to Streamers
And once again we find ourselves in the position of rooting for Princeton.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 12:24 PM - Post#281284
In response to 10Q
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. We'll be happy to play either Yale or Princeton on Sunday.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 12:27 PM - Post#281286
In response to palestra38
Q is right though. I'd want them even if they were better.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 12:28 PM - Post#281287
In response to Penndemonium
Got it. I didn't realize that KenPom also favored us. It is true that the odds reflects betting, but these days there seems to be a fair amount of statistical betters that should close the gap in betting house odds vs. consensus probabilities of winning.
It is safe to assume the line will move a bit after it is posted.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 01:47 PM - Post#281297
In response to Streamers
Line or not, I see us as the underdog. We lost to them 2X, they were co-champions. I prefer the underdog role for this team anyway, and feel we play that role best.
Of course if we play at peak capability, we can absolutely beat them, but to have a chance we will need to hit a reasonable % of 3's.
We shot 27% and 25% in our two losses. If we shoot less than 30% again, I don't see us winning.
Let's Go Quakers!
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-14-19 03:22 PM - Post#281309
In response to Mike Porter
How can we not be the underdog? The team is banged up. It isn't the same team that took down Nova earlier.
That said, it's still a winnable game.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 03:26 PM - Post#281311
In response to TheLine
Is anyone other than Wang banged up? We've found some answers with the older players. That's all I can figure.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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03-14-19 03:34 PM - Post#281316
In response to 10Q
Bryce hasn't been the same since he was wrestled to the ground at Harvard.
It really is remarkable to look at from where we got the scoring early in the year vs now. It's all in the seniors hands at this point...I'd love to see a Bryce resurgence and think we could use it, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 03:48 PM - Post#281321
In response to Quakers03
I like having seniors at the fore in the post-season.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 03:51 PM - Post#281322
In response to Quakers03
There is something to be said for playing guys who are in their last game if they lose. There is a level of desperation in it which I like, especially given the experience factor. These guys have not been making many mistakes since Steve went All-Dunphy in the last 3 games, winning the turnover battle each time. That was something that had been killing us previously. These guys know how to play D also.
The 3 point shooting may be spotty, but with low turnovers and good D, we have a puncher's chance even if we don't shoot well.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-14-19 05:11 PM - Post#281338
In response to palestra38
Seniors are wonderful and all, but would love to have a healthy Mike and Bryce.
I'd assume Max is in his usual banged up state but will leave nothing in the tank.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-19 05:41 PM - Post#281356
In response to TheLine
Had they continued the out of conference performance in the Ivy season, of course. But they did not and are banged up.
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13otto
Masters Student
Posts: 779
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-14-19 06:14 PM - Post#281362
In response to palestra38
There is something to be said for playing guys who are in their last game if they lose. There is a level of desperation in it which I like, especially given the experience factor.
Do you really think this would be the last game for the seniors if they lose? I realize they wouldn't get an NIT bid, but there are a couple other tournaments.
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13otto
Masters Student
Posts: 779
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-14-19 06:19 PM - Post#281363
In response to palestra38
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. We'll be happy to play either Yale or Princeton on Sunday.
Agreed. I'll be happy to play either on Sunday. However, a win over Harvard and I'm rooting for Princeton over Yale in game two.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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03-16-19 11:11 AM - Post#281610
In response to Streamers
Lots of rowdy Harvard fans at my breakfast spot. Would love to see one penn fan. No board activity st all? Let’s go!
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-19 11:46 AM - Post#281615
In response to Quakers03
No worries - there will be a game thread with lots of play by play chatter and the occasional insight ;-)
I won't watch with a device in my hand because I'm sure there will be at least one moment where I jump out of my chair which would send the device flying.
Keep up the reports from the pre-game scene though. Want to see those.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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03-16-19 12:24 PM - Post#281618
In response to Streamers
It’s the bad ref again. I can’t believe it....
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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03-16-19 12:38 PM - Post#281620
In response to Quakers03
Between Max and our favorite ref we should be up ten. Killer.
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