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Username Post: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday        (Topic#22867)
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
03-13-19 02:01 PM - Post#281037    

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/game?g...

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:04 PM - Post#281038    
    In response to palestra38

Yale 86%:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/game?g...

 
T.P.F.K.A.D.W. 
PhD Student
Posts: 1169

Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:06 PM - Post#281039    
    In response to palestra38

How do these translate to point spreads?

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:08 PM - Post#281040    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

2...and look at this analysis

https://www.legitgamblingsites.com/blog/ivy-league...




 
T.P.F.K.A.D.W. 
PhD Student
Posts: 1169

Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:11 PM - Post#281042    
    In response to palestra38

And Yale by...8 or so?


 
Stuart Suss 
PhD Student
Posts: 1439

Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
03-13-19 02:19 PM - Post#281047    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

The gambler is unaware that Michael Wang will be unavailable for the tournament.

Ever since the U.S. Supreme Court made it easier for states to legalize betting on college sports, I have asked when college coaches from Nick Saban to Tommy Amaker will have the same obligations as their professional colleagues to publicly release honest injury information.


 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 8141
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:23 PM - Post#281048    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:

Read it carefully. he thinks Yale beat Nova and is a premier defensive team. Ha!

 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 8141
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 02:27 PM - Post#281049    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

  • T.P.F.K.A.D.W. Said:
How do these translate to point spreads?



I think Penn opens -1 and Yale opens -8 or 9


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 03:05 PM - Post#281062    
    In response to Streamers

My guess would be that the Harvard-Penn line might skew a bit toward Harvard (maybe to a PK open) because in these types of situations, they try to move off the true line to make up for the fact that the general betting public might see "better seed an underdog to worse seed" and money might come in unevenly at true odds. And while Vegas usually tries to give the fair line because that's what's most likely to make the money fall evenly (what they want), in situations where they know things will be perceived a certain way, they shade that way to try to get that money to fall evenly.

But Penn is, indeed, a -1.5 or so favorite here.

 
T.P.F.K.A.D.W. 
PhD Student
Posts: 1169

Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 03:28 PM - Post#281070    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:
My guess would be that the Harvard-Penn line might skew a bit toward Harvard (maybe to a PK open) because in these types of situations, they try to move off the true line to make up for the fact that the general betting public might see "better seed an underdog to worse seed" and money might come in unevenly at true odds. And while Vegas usually tries to give the fair line because that's what's most likely to make the money fall evenly (what they want), in situations where they know things will be perceived a certain way, they shade that way to try to get that money to fall evenly.

But Penn is, indeed, a -1.5 or so favorite here.


So if I understand you correctly, Penn "should" be more of a -2.5 point favorite?

Edited by T.P.F.K.A.D.W. on 03-13-19 03:28 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3765

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
03-13-19 03:36 PM - Post#281076    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

Maybe I'm just a sh1tty fan, but I simply cannot find it within myself to feel any sense of confidence about this game. It really comes down to whether the 3s are falling, and that's such a random thing. When Penn is hitting from the perimeter, they can beat any team in the conference by 20+. If not, every game becomes a toss up at best.

I'm going to go out in my back yard on Saturday morning and sacrifice a goat to the basketball gods. We'll see if that helps.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 23193

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
03-13-19 03:37 PM - Post#281077    
    In response to Silver Maple

I'm going to go to shul and daven extra hard. That usually helps. I think sacrificing a goat is probably a bad idea.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
03-13-19 03:45 PM - Post#281079    
    In response to Silver Maple

You hit on the key point, when we shoot well from 3, we will blow out anyone in the league. When we don't, we'll be competitive because of our defense, but we can lose to anyone. Over the last 5 games, 4 of which were wins, we were from 3 point range:

Cornell: 11-29 (W: 68-50)
Harvard: 7-26 (L: 59-53)
Dartmouth: 17-30 (W: 65-51)
Yale: 19-34 (W: 77-66)
Brown: 7-31 (W: 58-51)

It is remarkable how consistent is the number of 3s we take. And in the Harvard game, we had the much better open 3s but Harvard hit killers under pressure and we missed the open ones.

It's good to play this game on a neutral court. We certainly can win----eat that goat curry for me.

 
SteveChop 
PhD Student
Posts: 1150

Reg: 07-28-07
03-13-19 03:46 PM - Post#281081    
    In response to 10Q

I think that offering a sacrifice may be appropriate as this week's parasha is all about sacrifices. You could make the mincha sacrifice - cheaper, more timely with game at 12:30, and done by a nefesh (soul) rather than an adam (person)

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3765

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
03-13-19 03:50 PM - Post#281085    
    In response to 10Q

  • 10Q Said:
I'm going to go to shul and daven extra hard. That usually helps. I think sacrificing a goat is probably a bad idea.



Sorry. I'm afraid it's curtains for Clover. 38 wants rogan josh.

 
weinhauers_ghost 
Postdoc
Posts: 2125

Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
03-13-19 03:54 PM - Post#281091    
    In response to 10Q

  • 10Q Said:
I'm going to go to shul and daven extra hard. That usually helps. I think sacrificing a goat is probably a bad idea.



::cancels goat order::

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 23193

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 04:02 PM - Post#281094    
    In response to SteveChop

But remember: The beis hamikdash is no longer kayam. Since the churban, we may no longer offer karbonos on bamos.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3988

Reg: 11-23-04
03-13-19 04:04 PM - Post#281096    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

I may barbecue a leg of lamb in the back yard after I watch the game on TV. I can afford to buy P'38's ticket prices.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
03-13-19 04:19 PM - Post#281098    
    In response to Old Bear

Penn is paper thin right now. Things have to break extremely well to beat Harvard.

If Harvard wins then I promise not to whine that the better team lost due to injuries.


 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 8141
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: ESPN has Penn 54.5% to Win Saturday
03-13-19 04:21 PM - Post#281099    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

  • T.P.F.K.A.D.W. Said:
  • mrjames Said:
My guess would be that the Harvard-Penn line might skew a bit toward Harvard (maybe to a PK open) because in these types of situations, they try to move off the true line to make up for the fact that the general betting public might see "better seed an underdog to worse seed" and money might come in unevenly at true odds. And while Vegas usually tries to give the fair line because that's what's most likely to make the money fall evenly (what they want), in situations where they know things will be perceived a certain way, they shade that way to try to get that money to fall evenly.

But Penn is, indeed, a -1.5 or so favorite here.


So if I understand you correctly, Penn "should" be more of a -2.5 point favorite?



I think once the public sees a lower seed that already has two losses to the higher seed open as a favorite, you will see the line go to PK, at least for a while. I would wait for that before taking them.


 
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