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Username Post: Penn v. Harvard III        (Topic#22885)
84grad 
Sophomore
Posts: 115

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
03-15-19 08:47 AM - Post#281410    

Having won the game that really counted last Saturday vs. Columbia, the most important work has been done. 7 titles (4 shared) in 9 years is a tremendous achievement. For me, the NCAA bid is gravy, particularly with the consolation prize of an NIT bid.

I would much rather be playing Yale at the Palestra in a true playoff game. The last time we did was epic. But we’re stuck with Ivy Madness.

And, as unfair as it would be, I would rather be playing Penn at the Cathedral on Saturday and not hosting the tournament at Harvard next year. The tournament rotation will lead to some pretty rough years.

As a Harvard fan, I would like to see them get it done this weekend after two disappointing tournament losses in the past two years. If it’s Yale vs. Harvard on Sunday (and I’d be shocked if Yale doesn’t win on Saturday), it likely will take another heroic effort by Aiken to pull off the road win.

The big key for Harvard at this point is Bassey’s availability. If he is at full strength, I would have to give Harvard the edge on Saturday. Would allow Kirkwood to come off the bench as he had been doing.

Penn has 3 very solid players, but they have had a lot of adversity to deal with, starting with the tough injury to Betley and now the disappearance of Wang and Washington after promising starts.

Brodeur will score his points, but Harvard has enough defenders to make it difficult for Woods and Goodman, likely forcing some of the others to have to step up. Not that that couldn’t happen, but I wouldn’t want to bet on that.

Woods is such an elite defender that he can makes things difficult for even an elite scorer like Aiken. Aiken’s OT passing display vs. Columbia was a reminder of his excellent PG credentials, and if Harvard can knock down even a decent percentage of 3s off of kick outs, that may be the winning formula.

Also think Penn’s usual discipline to avoid team foul trouble is key. Allowing Harvard to score free points at the FT line helps compensate for the inevitable parade of ridiculous TOs. If Aiken can get the calls by being aggressive, I am confident that Harvard can deliver a good afternoon at the FT line (they’ve been erratic, but I still like our chances there vs.Penn).


 
LyleGold 
Masters Student
Posts: 919

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Penn v. Harvard III
03-15-19 09:06 AM - Post#281413    
    In response to 84grad

While I am impressed by your thoughtfulness and solid overall knowledge, I have a couple of minor quibbles. The first is that your opening paragraph sounds an awful lot like the foundation for rationalizing an eventual loss tomorrow. (We've already accomplished our goal; the rest is gravy.) No, the way things are currently structured, nobody has accomplished anything except getting within a couple of games of accomplishing something. I agree completely with everything you said about The Cathedral and the justice of a true playoff, but that's not the way it is.

Regarding your game analysis, I think you have misinterpreted Antonio Woods's role. Yes, he is an elite defender, but he is not likely to be covering Aiken most of the time. My guess is that Devon Goodman, with his superior quickness, will get that assignment. Second, Woods's scoring is not all that critical. Again, it will likely fall more upon Goodman's shoulders to open things up for Brodeur inside by hitting from outside. Antonio was spectacular against Yale last week offensively, but that was his career game. If Goodman is cold, we'll have to hope Jackson Donahue, Bryce Washington (who has largely disappeared lately), Michael Wang (also MIA the last couple months), or Antonio again can step up. If not, we're in big trouble.

Overall, this game is a toss up.

 
weinhauers_ghost 
PhD Student
Posts: 1405

Age: 59
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
Re: Penn v. Harvard III
03-15-19 10:25 AM - Post#281423    
    In response to LyleGold

Wang, alas, has been ruled out for the tournament. He is done for the season, as of last weekend.

 
LyleGold 
Masters Student
Posts: 919

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Penn v. Harvard III
03-15-19 11:46 AM - Post#281447    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

  • weinhauers_ghost Said:
Wang, alas, has been ruled out for the tournament. He is done for the season, as of last weekend.



Right, I forgot about that. We're really thin!


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1619

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-15-19 01:23 PM - Post#281484    
    In response to LyleGold

Both team are better defensively than they are on offense, so I expect a low scoring physical game. Each are missing not only one of their two respective best offensive weapons (Towns & Bruner), but Penn is without Wang and others are banged up. Harvard has been playing without Bassey, and others are banged up. Bassey returned last weekend for limited minutes and only able to contribute on defense.

I expect Brodeur and Aiken to score, but also find themselves the focus of the opponent's defensive scheming. For Penn that means Goodman, Woods or Silpe need to score and for Harvard that means Lewis, Kirkwood & Juzang. If anyone else can contribute in a meaningful way that can be the difference. At Harvard, it was Djuricic & Haskett and it could be Catchings. For Penn it could simply be Washington returning to form.

I'd be surprised if the winner breaks 60.

 
weinhauers_ghost 
PhD Student
Posts: 1405

Age: 59
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
03-15-19 01:55 PM - Post#281497    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
Both team are better defensively than they are on offense, so I expect a low scoring physical game. Each are missing not only one of their two respective best offensive weapons (Towns & Bruner), but Penn is without Wang and others are banged up. Harvard has been playing without Bassey, and others are banged up. Bassey returned last weekend for limited minutes and only able to contribute on defense.

I expect Brodeur and Aiken to score, but also find themselves the focus of the opponent's defensive scheming. For Penn that means Goodman, Woods or Silpe need to score and for Harvard that means Lewis, Kirkwood & Juzang. If anyone else can contribute in a meaningful way that can be the difference. At Harvard, it was Djuricic & Haskett and it could be Catchings. For Penn it could simply be Washington returning to form.

I'd be surprised if the winner breaks 60.



Bruner is out? I hadn't seen anything to that effect.


 
mobrien 
Sophomore
Posts: 143

Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
03-15-19 02:02 PM - Post#281501    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

I think he meant Betley.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1619

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Penn v. Harvard III
03-15-19 02:14 PM - Post#281507    
    In response to mobrien

Yes, I meant Betley.

Multi-tasking as I figure out when to leave for New Haven and where to park!

Although, Princeton just announced Schwieger is out. This year has become a war of attrition for everyone but Yale! Last Eli standing?

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 03-15-19 02:15 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1619

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Penn v. Harvard III
03-15-19 03:18 PM - Post#281535    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

The Boston Globe published the following sentence today:

"This year, the Crimson navigated a minefield of injuries — Seth Towns and Justin Bassey are out for the season, and Bryce Aiken missed the first 13 games — and slumped to a 6-7 start."

Clearly, Bassey was hobbled, playing limited minutes vs Cornell and Columbia after missing the previous 3.5 games. Is the Globe just sloppy or is Justin done?

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 03-15-19 03:19 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
weinhauers_ghost 
PhD Student
Posts: 1405

Age: 59
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
Re: Penn v. Harvard III
03-15-19 03:59 PM - Post#281550    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
The Boston Globe published the following sentence today:

"This year, the Crimson navigated a minefield of injuries — Seth Towns and Justin Bassey are out for the season, and Bryce Aiken missed the first 13 games — and slumped to a 6-7 start."

Clearly, Bassey was hobbled, playing limited minutes vs Cornell and Columbia after missing the previous 3.5 games. Is the Globe just sloppy or is Justin done?



I got the Harvard game notes from the Penn Athletics website, and Bassey is listed as an available reserve. If I recall correctly, didn't he play limited minutes last weekend? Something like ten minutes in the Columbia game?


 
mobrien 
Sophomore
Posts: 143

Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
03-15-19 04:18 PM - Post#281556    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

Yeah, he did. But if they don't think he was able to get through even those limited minutes well enough, there's a good chance they might just shut him down.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1619

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-15-19 04:45 PM - Post#281558    
    In response to mobrien

Bassey didn’t play in the first 25-30 minutes. His defense helped win the game.

If he’s shut down the Crimson are a very different team. He’s the best rebounder and defender and scores 10+.

Oh well. Another Brycean effort needed.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5491

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-19 05:08 PM - Post#281561    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

The Globe article came out yesterday, and today at the presser Amaker seemed to think he’d go but they wanted to see how he felt at the shootaround. I think that line was just a mistake, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be as limited as he was in the last few games.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1619

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-15-19 07:22 PM - Post#281573    
    In response to mrjames

Good to hear.

Crimson will be playing again anywhere from Tuesdsy through Friday. No idea who will be healthy enough to play after this weekend. Last year Bassey took over in the absence of Aiken and Towns in a game effort vs Marquette in the NIT.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4896

Reg: 11-22-04
03-15-19 11:59 PM - Post#281601    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

The interesting thing in terms of adjustments is that Penn’s Defense on Aiken last game really worked all game, and Harvard’s Defense on AJ worked enough when it counted. Curious to see if Harvard finds more ways to get Goodman off Aiken on switches, and if Penn actually takes the foot off the accelerator on AJ early in order to make sure they have him at the end (as they did against Brown last Saturday with the season on the line).

Agree that this game is likely to be a defensive struggle, and that Penn will need to hit 3s to win. Should be fun, but probably not real pretty.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1619

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-16-19 11:55 AM - Post#281616    
    In response to SomeGuy

Somehow I’ve ended up eating a late breakfast with the entire Yale team.

Go Crimson!

 
mobrien 
Sophomore
Posts: 143

Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
03-16-19 12:21 PM - Post#281617    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Bassey is warming up at least.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1619

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-16-19 12:39 PM - Post#281622    
    In response to mobrien

Arena is empty

 
digamma 
Senior
Posts: 312

Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
03-16-19 01:25 PM - Post#281641    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Rough start. Pulled it together despite shooting 25% from 3. Let’s even that out in the second.

 
mobrien 
Sophomore
Posts: 143

Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
03-16-19 02:35 PM - Post#281669    
    In response to digamma

Really balanced effort. Catchings' energy and effort were huge. He was able to do a pretty good job on Brodeur that second half. Bought Lewis enough rest to close things out -- he had a couple of big blocks and offensive boards.

Goodman did a good job on Bryce once again, but as soon as he went out with four fouls, Bryce's eyes lit up and he finally got a stepback three that was huge.

Wasn't pretty and there were more than a few points in that second half where things didn't look good, but a very solid win overall.

 
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