mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-15-19 01:11 PM - Post#281482
Penn -1 vs. Harvard
Princeton +10 at Yale
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Semifinal Lines
03-15-19 01:25 PM - Post#281485
In response to mrjames
Mike, I know KP shows a 1 point difference in favor of Penn, but that includes OOC. Is there a way to recalculate to reflect recent play - say, in conference? I say this because Harvard is much better with Aiken who only played 13 in-conference games and Penn seems to miss Wang.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 03-15-19 01:25 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Semifinal Lines
03-15-19 01:31 PM - Post#281489
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Yeah, that's a narrative that people seem to like that doesn't really mesh with reality.
Leveraging just Feb/Mar data, no matter how you cut it, Penn would mostly be a bigger favorite and would never be an underdog.
Harvard has been marginally worse since Bryce returned, and Penn was about the same in the Ivy back-to-backs as it was before those.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-15-19 01:35 PM - Post#281492
In response to mrjames
Thanks Mike.
That's very interesting and surprising. Guess we should bench Bryce!
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4910
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-15-19 01:50 PM - Post#281494
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
We're getting 10! Wow, it's like being a low seed in the Big Dance.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-15-19 02:01 PM - Post#281499
In response to SRP
We're getting 10! Wow, it's like being a low seed in the Big Dance.
Should we assume based on the time stamp of Mike’s post that the spread probably already factors in Schweiger’s absence? Did the oddsmakers release those after today’s press conference?
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1345
Reg: 12-08-04
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03-15-19 02:02 PM - Post#281500
In response to SRP
Not that it makes a material difference, but I expect 30% of that spread is due to Yale's home game status.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Semifinal Lines
03-15-19 03:20 PM - Post#281539
In response to mrjames
Penn -1 vs. Harvard
Princeton +10 at Yale
I would have happily laid 8 or even 9 with Yale, but 10 is a bit rich. I'm going to hope for it to come in a bit, but I'm not counting on it.
PU's depth issues are big here. There is a scenario where PU actually wins this, albeit improbable. It requires that they shoot well, RA goes all Brodeur inside, Stephens takes Oni out of the game the way Woods did, and Copeland gets the lights in his eyes when shooting. They also need some real minutes from guys Morales and Much.
I'm willing to hedge a bit with a small amount on PU ML at +600.
Penn-Harvard is already even on the ML. I expect that price ATS will be available between now and tipoff.
P/H over is down to 135 already. I like it.
Y/P over is at 142. Too much if you think Yale has a big lead late and starts eating clock as a result.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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Re: Semifinal Lines
03-15-19 10:22 PM - Post#281588
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Mike, I know KP shows a 1 point difference in favor of Penn, but that includes OOC. Is there a way to recalculate to reflect recent play - say, in conference? I say this because Harvard is much better with Aiken who only played 13 in-conference games and Penn seems to miss Wang.
For those who want to play with these questions themselves, Bart Torvik's site has the best way I've found to cut game scores (and any other stats you want) by any timeframe:
http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Harvard&ye...
Takes some time to get used to it (e.g. to find the average across a period you have to look for the last point on the "rolling average" line) but very handy once you do.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-15-19 10:29 PM - Post#281590
In response to whitakk
Thanks!
Soon I’ll have a lot of time to play! We all will.
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Bruno
PhD Student
Posts: 1419
Loc: Brooklyn, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-19 10:27 AM - Post#281607
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Princeton getting 10.5 now. Despite who they’re missing, this feels like a lot given they’re historically low tempo (although a lot less so this year) and are probably lower tempo now missing two of their more aggressive gunners.
I took Harvard giving 2 and then 10 min later they’re even. Strategy.
I like Aiken in a big game, and have an inkling Bassey will play bigger minutes than he has been able to recently.
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