UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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03-16-19 04:32 PM - Post#281689
I guess it time to officially start thinking about next year. I did my usual crude quantitative analysis based of KenPom and Verbal Commits. Here what I come up with:
Ending point. Obviously, Yale come off the strongest year although they finished weakly in the league. Remember, however that Penn, who has the second highest ranking, finished weakly too. Princeton was well back, then came the rest. The league overall was strong, but distinguished more by depth than the excellence of the best teams. Without the injuries to Towns, Penn’s three and the loss of Canady that probably would have been different.
Losses: Harvard has everybody back again. Dartmouth and Cornell also lose nobody important. For Penn it is all on defense between Antonio and Max. If one emphasizes defense, then perhaps Penn loses the most.
Injured returns: I am obviously missing some people from other teams but Penn is far ahead here in its expectations. Harvard comes next assuming Towns returns.
Recruits: Yale has the best single recruit, while Penn has the big guy and Harvard Ludlum. I put Penn equal to Yale given the apparent depth of the class, especially, because it is heavy on guards.
Composite: I rank Harvard slightly ahead of Penn given its returning all its important players and the potential contribution from Towns and the Frosh Ludlum. If they could find some outside shooting, it could be a very good team, assuming Towns is healthy. I think Penn has a major upside if Betley, Wang, and Jelani are healthy and if the big frosh can play. I rank Yale just behind Penn then a big gap to Princeton given the loss of Canady.
For the first time in a decade next year’s team should have significant athleticism at every starting position: AJ, Wang, Betley, Devon, Washington with Simmons, Williams and one or more of the Frosh guards coming off the bench. Such good fortune would give Donahue an upgrade at two or three starting positions and most of the bench. I suggest the bench strength could be very important. They had just three points off the bench against Harvard today. Put differently, next year’s team should be very good offensively. The jury is out, however, on defense. Still, given Max’s injuries, this year every position should be better on D except for Antonio’s replacement. Let’s hope this all comes true, because next year is clearly a peak year with AJ as a senior. Where inside scoring comes after that luxury we don’t know.
All in all a good year. The Big Five Championship was very sweet.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3994
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-16-19 06:06 PM - Post#281701
In response to UPIA1968
Cornell loses nobody important? How many teams in the league?
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91Quake
PhD Student
Posts: 1125
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-16-19 06:09 PM - Post#281702
In response to UPIA1968
Cornell has one pretty important loss.
Ledlum is probably the best recruit.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8236
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-19 07:57 PM - Post#281710
In response to 91Quake
Silpe is also a significant loss. We need Jelani to come back 100%.
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1154
Reg: 07-28-07
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03-16-19 08:54 PM - Post#281716
In response to Streamers
While I hope that Jelani will be able to make a contribution, it may take a while. Let’s remember - he hasn’t played competitive BBall in almost 3 years.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next year
03-17-19 12:08 AM - Post#281746
In response to UPIA1968
Who is the Yale recruit who is best in the league? Both recruits seem good, but they don’t look better than Ledlum to me. As for grad losses, I assume you meant somebody besides Cornell — they lose Morgan, so they lose the most in the league for sure.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next year
03-17-19 12:24 AM - Post#281748
In response to UPIA1968
No mention of the fact that in the incoming class the best players—and ones most likely to get early rotation minutes—are going to be the bigs, not the guards.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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Re: Next year
03-17-19 06:43 PM - Post#281827
In response to Chip Bayers
I classify Betley as incoming and a guard - same with Jelani. Plus we have to replace two guards. That says new starting minutes will come to one big and two guards. I suppose one could say that Wang and Washington are returnees. Still only three players return from the seven who got significant time yesterday. Looks like there will be at five new faces in November, two, MLL and Wang will be bigs, the others guards.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Next year
03-17-19 06:53 PM - Post#281828
In response to UPIA1968
Betley and Wang defined as “incoming†and “new faces.â€
Got it.
Edited by Chip Bayers on 03-17-19 06:53 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next year
03-17-19 07:46 PM - Post#281836
In response to SomeGuy
Ledlum is the best recruit in the league, and it’s not particularly close. Penn’s probably got the other best class, along with Harvard. Other teams got a piece or two, but none of those pieces come close to Ledlum.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next year
03-17-19 08:22 PM - Post#281839
In response to Chip Bayers
My list of who has the best chance to play immediately for Penn would start with Martz and Dingle. MLL is the highest rated, but he probably will need some refinement and would have to get past AJ, Simmons, and Wang for time, plus Betley if we play small. With 3 of our 4 rotation guards for the last few games all graduating, there will be room for at least 3 guys who were not playing at the end of this year to be in the rotation with Goodman. Obviously a healthy Betley is one. But after that, it should be very interesting and competitive.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1899
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-17-19 11:43 PM - Post#281862
In response to SomeGuy
Dingle looks like a player. I don't think we've ever had such a physical guard before.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-18-19 12:16 AM - Post#281865
In response to Penndemonium
In the presser before the ILT, Coach Donahue said "Jelani was our best player in Italy". If that's true and JWil returns to form, we will be set in the backcourt with Dev, JWil, Bryce, and 1-2 of the new kids.
I also think the late season emergence of Jarrod spells good things to come. He has to get in the gym and devote himself to strengthening his confidence in his game. Teamed with AJ and Mike, he could be a big time upgrade for Penn.
Of the new guys Max Martz and Jordan Dingle are the two I would expect to see minutes early.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1899
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-18-19 12:47 PM - Post#281922
In response to PennFan10
Jarrod has physically transformed himself this year and his skills are good enough to compete. I expect that he can continue to improve over the years in these areas. The parts that concern me about him has to do with his motor and game awareness. If he can keep working on the blocks at all times (similar to AJ), his potential is very high. He seems to be conserving energy too often to really stand out. That little bit of dirty work makes everything else (defense, rebounding, offense) just a bit easier.
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