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Username Post: 2019-20 Projections        (Topic#23008)
mrjames 
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04-09-19 12:44 PM - Post#283444    

Bart Torvik posted his preliminary 2019-20 rankings here: http://www.barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

Ivy ranks:
36. Harvard
53. Penn
114. Princeton
133. Columbia
163. Dartmouth
170. Brown
183. Yale
286. Cornell

If you click on the team, you can see which players comprise the analysis. Notably, Oni is not in Yale’s number. Also, despite many freshmen being included (mainly to consume open minutes), none of Harvard’s freshman class is in its number. Towns and Betley have been added back to Harvard and Penn, respectively.

As a whole, I think this shows a good amount of respect to how good this league could and should be next year. With the rankings above, each of the top two teams would have 4 Tier I/II chances in league play (1 Tier I, 3 Tier IIs). The bottom four teams would have 6 such chances (2 Tier I, 4 Tier II).

For me, it seems like certain teams’ departures are hitting them harder (Yale, Cornell) than others’ (Penn, Brown, Princeton). Not saying I agree or disagree, but specifically for Yale, they’re sitting on a lot of recent recruits who despite my feeling that they were a bit overrated, still comprise a very talented pool from which to draw. Curious that the Bulldogs dropped more in rank than Cornell, which ostensibly has a lot, lot less in the cupboard.

I think I’d feel better about the 4-7 above being exactly flipped, though it’s still early (probably lots of injuries and other fun stuff to inevitably wreck the rosters we thought we’d see as per usual) and the actual difference in Pythag between those teams isn’t huge.

 
HGA 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
04-09-19 01:50 PM - Post#283445    
    In response to mrjames

Specific to Yale, they lose 4 starters, which is a big hit for any team. The 4 averaged nearly 50 points a game in total. They still will be good but its hard to calculate the impact of the loss.

 
james 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
04-09-19 07:56 PM - Post#283484    
    In response to HGA

No doubt they lose a lot.

But their talent is very solid which should emerge. Certainly this is a relative underrank.

No the recruits weren’t overrated. Having seen them play in high school I would argue the opposite. They were underrated.

now have they developed since they didn’t play much this year? We shall see. I wouldn’t bet against it.

And bruner who many on the inside believe had the highest ceiling last summer of the returning players...is the wild card. if healthy he will take over. But he needs a healthy offseason for once which he hasn’t really had in years it seems




 
mrjames 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
04-10-19 10:01 AM - Post#283496    
    In response to james

I was referring more to their starting point, which was hotly debated on these boards. Cotton was a 4-star and ranked at one point, while Kelly was seen as a three-star on the fringe of the rankings with power five potential.

By the time the 2018 rankings were finalized those players were more appropriately rated (and maybe underrated - given that they ended up barely inside the top 400).

Swain, Atkinson, Bruner is still a good core, but without Oni, this feels a lot like the 2015-16 Harvard team and the drop in the rankings was comparable. Maybe it's just convenient availability bias creeping in, but that feels like a tremendous comp, and it just so happens that the present year and next year projection line up very well.

 
PennFan10 
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04-10-19 12:49 PM - Post#283502    
    In response to mrjames

Bruner is going to take over? If I had seen that in just one game I might believe it. Call me a skeptic. All the talent but hasn't really panned out relative to his ability in my opinion. Atkinson is a much better big that Bruner right now.

 
Silver Maple 
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04-10-19 12:50 PM - Post#283503    
    In response to mrjames

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the most likely course of events is that Oni will be back, right? If so, that's probably the strongest argument for Yale being underrated.

And, for the record, while I think Penn is likely to improve next year, I have a lot of trouble seeing them at #53.

 
mrjames 
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04-10-19 01:16 PM - Post#283506    
    In response to PennFan10

Bruner is a much more dynamic player than Atkinson, though Atkinson is a better pure big. If you're looking for someone that has a prayer of taking on the usage load left behind by Copeland and Oni, it's much more likely to be Bruner than Atkinson.

That being said, Bruner was a non-factor offensively down the stretch for Yale. His good showing versus LSU (24% usage, 116 ORAT) came over a month after his last 20+% usage, 100+ ORAT performance (the first Cornell game), which itself was one of only two Ivy games in which he managed that feat. Despite his ceiling (and I think he's shown it a little more than PF10 is giving him credit for), going from that to doing it every game is a big, big jump.

He's gotta stop the Greg Mangano perimeter grazing, though - he may become a good shooter some day, but he isn't right now. His best performance on any type of jumper was 38% on 2PT Js in 2017, and he's a closer-to-30% average shooter on all jumpers (2s and 3s). He's averaging 75% at the rim, and nearly half of his buckets there AREN'T assisted. For him to unlock his superstar potential, he's gotta find a way to consistently get that shot and stop settling for jumpers he can't hit.

 
mobrien 
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2019-20 Projections
04-10-19 01:51 PM - Post#283507    
    In response to mrjames

Any sense of where Yale would be in these rankings if Oni did come back? (And are people actually confident that he won't?)

 
PennFan10 
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04-10-19 02:10 PM - Post#283510    
    In response to mobrien

Bruner and Atkinson are very different players as you note MrJ, but Atkinson is much closer to being an all Ivy type performer than Bruner and that simply shouldn't be the case based on ability.

 
westcoast 
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04-10-19 02:31 PM - Post#283512    
    In response to PennFan10

Here are their stats from last year:
Bruner: 10.4 pts, 8.4 rebs, 3.0 assts, 1.5 blks, 1.0 stls
Atkinson: 9.1 pts, 5.0 rebs, 1.0 assts, 0.6 blks, 0.5 stls

Bruner did average more minutes than Atkinson (28.0 vs 20.2), but Bruner's per minute stats are better than Atkinson in every stat except for points.

Bruner finished 2nd in the Ivy League in rebounds and 3rd in blocks last year. He's not too far from All-Ivy status.

 
james 
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04-10-19 02:53 PM - Post#283519    
    In response to westcoast

BRuner does it all.

He didn’t trust his body in the post. when you have multiple knee operations in just a few yrs while your body develops its understandable.

If he stays healthy and gets past it he will play more like he did against LSU when he was Yale’s best player and a power 5 grad dream.

I think he will if gets healthy. certainly the coaching staff believes it. and as I said they believed it last year also.

And Yale’s recruits are undervalued. Jarvis and Mahoney I left off. They are dynamite. Can they build cohesion with all they have to replace?

Well they started 7. So you have 2+bruner (the most talented player according to the coaches) returning. if oni comes back they will be a force.

If he doesn’t they are still undervalued and the comment on the recruits is just wrong.

 
james 
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04-10-19 02:59 PM - Post#283520    
    In response to james

and bruner didn’t shoot well Back half of year from 3.

But he facilitated and spread the floor. He was a key cog in the offense bc you need this role. not forgetting the 7’3 wingspan (watch the block of tremont waters floater, nuts)

With Atkinson and bruner with better legs this will be a powerful tandem.

Then you add in Jarvis to the mix of returning players who are all effective when they play—the 4/5 looks good. the guard play absent swain will be the question. But there’s talent. Does it develop?

 
james 
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04-10-19 03:01 PM - Post#283521    
    In response to james

Copeland was the best player against LSU offensively. But bruner did it all and popped off the screen (or court in person?

 
james 
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04-10-19 03:08 PM - Post#283522    
    In response to james

Atkinson has amazing post moves. If he can get stronger he will be a total force down low.

But bruner is far more we’ll rounded. He makes Atkinson better bc of his passing ability

If he turns alpha dog on good knees, look out. But his stats are fine but not fully reflective of his existing value at least to that team. Without copeland and maybe oni he will need to do more and use his length against the league



 
mrjames 
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04-10-19 04:48 PM - Post#283528    
    In response to james

A lot here to digest.

Just to be clear, I can get on board with the 2019 class from Yale being underrated. Mahoney and Jarvis should have a shot to be contributors right away. The 2018 class was the one that I wasn't a huge fan of.

Either way, for Yale to feel like a favorite to make the Ivy Tourney, much less contend for the Ivy title, they need Oni to return.

 
PennFan10 
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04-10-19 07:04 PM - Post#283534    
    In response to westcoast

  • westcoast Said:
Here are their stats from last year:
Bruner: 10.4 pts, 8.4 rebs, 3.0 assts, 1.5 blks, 1.0 stls
Atkinson: 9.1 pts, 5.0 rebs, 1.0 assts, 0.6 blks, 0.5 stls

Bruner did average more minutes than Atkinson (28.0 vs 20.2), but Bruner's per minute stats are better than Atkinson in every stat except for points.

Bruner finished 2nd in the Ivy League in rebounds and 3rd in blocks last year. He's not too far from All-Ivy status.



Probably better to compare career stats since both guys have played 2 seasons. Those are much more comparable:

Bruner 25 minutes per game, 9.3 ppg 6.9 reb (1.8 Off Reb), 51% FG percentage.

Atkinson 22.2 minutes per game, 9.2 ppg, 4.8 reb (1.7 off reb) 69.5% FG percentage

The other stats are more about the different roles they play on the team. Regardless, Bruner has so much more ability these two shouldn't even be close. My original point was to highlight the idea of Bruner taking over in Oni's absence. Yale fans should hope that happens but to date we haven't seen that ability.


 
SRP 
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04-10-19 08:01 PM - Post#283537    
    In response to PennFan10

Big question for Yale is how much hidden game Swain has. As a second or third option he was terrific, but can he be effective as the primary perimeter threat? If he's actually able to drive around defenders and finish (or dish) then Yale's offense looks potent for sure, but even if he's just able to run around off the ball and get off shots he could contribute a lot of efficient usage. OTOH, if he has trouble scoring when the perimeter D is tilted toward him, then Yale's offense will have to find a lot of new secondary perimeter scoring.

 
Stuart Suss 
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04-11-19 05:22 PM - Post#283585    
    In response to SRP

I do not have any personal favorite in a debate comparing Bruner and Atkinson. But debates like this are why I post my annual individual efficiency statistics.

They show that for regular season, conference games, Bruner ranked 3rd and Atkinson ranked 11th. However that difference was strictly a function of the extra 121 minutes that Bruner played.

On a per minute (per 40 minute) basis, Atkinson ranked higher because Atkinson went to the foul line more frequently, did not not take and miss almost 75% of his three point attempts, and because Atkinson had a much lower turnover rate.




 
PennFan10 
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04-11-19 05:41 PM - Post#283586    
    In response to Stuart Suss

A voice of reason emerges.

 
james 
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04-15-19 12:06 PM - Post#283653    
    In response to PennFan10

Atkinson is not effective when the floor is not spread.

You spread the floor in a high ball screen oriented offense by having a 4 man off the block.

It is no secret why Reynolds had a solid year. It is also no secret as to why Atkinson was just as effective as last year in fewer minutes without showing an expanded game.

The link is bruner played this year and you undervalue him in this quant analysis.

Now did bruner play up to what jones expects offensively from him this year? No. Bc he didn’t trust his Body and settled too much. this would include the dirk fadaway with lower success (forgetting Miami game where he dropped a beauty)

Is he a better 3 point shooter than he showed? Well the insiders believe so though I only watch the games.

the projection is a qualitative exercise. But as it stands he was perhaps the best passer on the team. And rebounded well.

If he sits down more inside and uses his length he will be a force. And if he does that and hits the 3 ball like they feel he can then he will be elite.

The kid didn’t play his junior year of high school and has blown out both knees since. Not easy.

“I probably have never had anyone as talented as this.” James Jones

That quote is 10 mos old. I don’t watch practice but I played the game and understand the mental hurdles with injuries.

Can he get there? it’s a qualitative assessment but I like my primary research. I think it’s just being healthy starting now.

 
james 
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04-15-19 12:33 PM - Post#283658    
    In response to james

agree on point about swain. He showed a decent floater at times to complement his sniping ability.

that will be impt going forward given his size.

gabiddon is tough. He missed last year and the end of this yr with injuries but he flashed well when he played.

kelly I saw some in high school. He is elite athletically in an Ivy League context. But his jumper wasn’t as consistent. He was a good finisher esp w Wendell but his weaknessss came out a bit when Wendell left. Besides a great half against Vermont you didn’t see much this year bc he didn’t play much.

cotton is ultra talented. but it’s back to has he developed given limited playing time this yr?

lanford is a physical beast. But he basically just dunked a lot on a high school team with a lottery pick and Aaron nesmith.
hard to see him displacing Atkinson in the interim.

I like alausa. Crazy wingspan. Might be in the rotation
W Williams. That’s 4 talented posts returning+ Jarvis who is a stud.

So it’s really who steps up to fill the void in guard play and does bruner become elite? In my eyes. And this Mahoney kid is an elite shooter. Has to be in the mix.


 
welcometothejungle 
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2019-20 Projections
10-10-19 04:18 PM - Post#288469    
    In response to james

Picked up Lindys Sports' preview magazine the other day…Their projections for the league are:
1. Harvard (ranked #32 overall and projected to make the 2nd round of the NCAAs)
2. Penn
3. Yale
4. Princeton
5. Columbia
6. Brown
7. Dartmouth
8. Cornell

Awards Projections:
1st Team All-Ivy: Aiken, Brodeur, Choh, Towns, Aririguzoh
2nd Team: Betley, Kirkwood, Smith, Bruner, Knight

POY: Aiken, ROY: Lorca-Lloyd

They also had 6 "honor roll categories":
Best Shooter - Barry
Best Rebounder - Brodeur
Best Playmaker - Smith
Best Defender - Bruner
Most Versatile - Choh
Best NBA Prospect - Towns

Pretty uncontroversial picks all around looks like, no real surprises. Lorca-Lloyd over Ledlum as ROY may be a minor upset since Ledlum was ranked higher out of HS but not sure. Any other early contenders for ROY who look like they'll get a lot of opportunity around the league early on? Sounded like Dingle at Penn figures to get time in their guard rotation, have to imagine 1 or 2 of the Princeton frosh will slide into the rotation there as well. Not sure about the rest of the league

Edited by welcometothejungle on 10-10-19 04:22 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
SomeGuy 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-10-19 10:35 PM - Post#288476    
    In response to welcometothejungle

I think this may underestimate Brown. I think more Anderson will replace a lot of the lost scoring. Okolie’s defense may be tougher to replace, but I think they could finish as high as third (maybe even 2nd if Penn has health issues again).

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-10-19 10:44 PM - Post#288477    
    In response to SomeGuy

ROY to Lorca-Lloyd over Ledlum is not at all unlikely. L-L is immediately crucial for Penn due to the lack of depth for bigs whereas Ledlum will play behind Towns, Bassey, Kirkwood and possibly even Djuricic.

Barry is out for the season.

Choh as most versatile might be pressed by Bassey/Kirkwood.

Hoping that Lindys has good information re. Towns.

 
SomeGuy 
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10-10-19 10:55 PM - Post#288479    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

While I agree Penn has room for Lorca-Lloyd to step right in, I am not so sure he will be ready to be ROY. In fact, I don’t think he is the most likely Penn freshman to compete for the award (though again I agree that Penn has a decent chance of having the ROY).

On Harvard, they are so deep that they could literally play two full lines like Yale did in ‘02. The problem Jones ran into was if fouls or injuries impacting one of the lines, guys weren’t accustomed to playing with the other group. Harvard is so deep that Tommy could literally play two five man lines, and then have three backups for each group (so two teams of 8). Remarkable.



 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-10-19 11:16 PM - Post#288480    
    In response to SomeGuy

I still believe that Robert Baker is incredible versatile. If he could learn to post near the basket he'd create some incredible matchup problems.

 
mrjames 
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10-11-19 08:57 AM - Post#288482    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

It’s entirely possible that Sakota ends the year with a better ROY case than Ledlum. It’s harder to integrate a rookie high-usage playmaker into a lineup already full of veteran high-usage playmakers than it is to throw in a three-point sniper. For instance, Corbin Miller had nearly the same level of impact on that veteran 2011-12 Harvard team as a freshman as Wesley Saunders did.

Injuries could change all that (Kirkwood got to shine early due to Towns being out), but at full strength, it’s easy to see a scenario where Sakota’s shooting is more important to Harvard than Ledlum’s ability to be efficient at high usage.

All that being said, if Harvard has any serious ROY candidates, then its season didn’t go to plan. Right now, I like Columbia, Princeton and Yale as the right combo of opportunity and talent to produce an ROY.

 
HGA 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-11-19 10:12 AM - Post#288487    
    In response to welcometothejungle

I see Yale as a stretch at #3 given what they lost from last year -- the starting 1,2, and 3 positions. They do have a good coach but unproven talent coming in.

 
Old Bear 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-11-19 02:33 PM - Post#288502    
    In response to SomeGuy

I think you may be right SG, Brown will be much deeper than last. Okolie’s D will be missed for sure, but the offense should not be a problem. There are a couple of Freshmen who will contribute right away, maybe more than two.

 
PennFan10 
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10-11-19 04:14 PM - Post#288505    
    In response to Old Bear

I really like the Chicago, Perry Cowan, for Brown. He is going to be a high level Ivy guard.

 
welcometothejungle 
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2019-20 Projections
10-11-19 04:14 PM - Post#288506    
    In response to Old Bear

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/ivy-league-202...

3 Man Weave published their Ivy League preview today, typically one of the more in-depth and statistically backed previews out there, definitely would encourage people to read the entire preview. As a fan of the league it's nice to see close looks at lineup combinations and things like that.

(Tier 1)
1. Harvard
2. Penn
3. Princeton
(Tier 2)
4. Yale
5. Columbia
6. Dartmouth
7. Brown
(Tier 3)
8. Cornell

First Team: Aiken (POY), Smith, Knight, Towns, Brodeur
Second Team: Llewellyn, Betley, Choh, Bruner, Tape
ROY: Dingle, Best Newcomer: Ary-Turner

Another preview that is quite down on Brown, and surprisingly high on Dartmouth even without Barry

Edited by welcometothejungle on 10-11-19 04:17 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
1LotteryPick1969 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-11-19 05:27 PM - Post#288508    
    In response to welcometothejungle

Thanks for the link. It is a nice read.

My only quibble is Arirguzoh third team All Ivy.

But that's why we play the games.

 
bradley 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-11-19 05:46 PM - Post#288510    
    In response to 1LotteryPick1969

I am not sure if Richmond will raise his game to another level as it would require him to be able to have a 10 to 15 foot jump shot although he does have a smooth FT shooting motion. He had massive improvement from sophomore to junior but it will be a lot more challenging this year.

It was interesting to Llewellyn showing up on 2nd team. He clearly has the potential for taking a giant step but time will tell if he takes a similar jump that Richmond took last year.

 
SomeGuy 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-11-19 06:08 PM - Post#288513    
    In response to welcometothejungle

Little surprised nobody has Goodman as even second team.

 
welcometothejungle 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-11-19 06:53 PM - Post#288514    
    In response to SomeGuy

Yeah, could definitely see Goodman in that conversation. 3MW has Goodman, Swain, Boeheim, Atkinson, Aririguzoh on their 3rd team, as well as Ledlum, Sakota, Ary-Turner, Dingle, and Smoyer on their all-newcomers team

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-11-19 08:12 PM - Post#288515    
    In response to welcometothejungle

This is the best news I've heard all day. With declining wins in league we are a little pessimistic over in the Dartmouth forum. This ray of sunshine should break through some of the clouds that overhang our forum. I'm going to post it wholesale. All credit to welcometothejungle.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
Old Bear 
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10-11-19 09:10 PM - Post#288517    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Please join me on wishing Zack Husacker, Brown Co-Captain, on his wedding tomorrow.

 
Naismith 
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10-11-19 09:42 PM - Post#288519    
    In response to Old Bear

No pressure on Harvard after that Weave build up.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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2019-20 Projections
10-13-19 01:54 PM - Post#288541    
    In response to james

Ivy League Preview College Hoops Overtime

Ivy League Preview Podcast

The Ivy League champions last year were led by an explosive player that went on to play in the NBA during the 2018-19 season and Greg thinks a team with two explosive players should run this conference in 2019-20. He also looks at how the conference playing on back to back days leads to a lot of value on totals and Eli Hershkovich of Radio.com helps Greg look at the advanced analytics of these teams before he gives his projected order of finish!


FYI These guys murder the pronunciation of everyone's name 😭

"...no excuses - only results!”


Edited by GoBigGreenBasketball on 10-13-19 02:14 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
bradley 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-14-19 08:38 PM - Post#288565    
    In response to welcometothejungle

Unlike the prior year, I cannot find any well established NBA mock draft websites that have any IL men's player as projected in the 1st or 2nd round. Although the depth of the IL seems to be improving, it appears that there is still a long way to go to secure the highest talent level if it is at all possible. The NBA scouts are normally pretty good as to assessing talent that can play in the league.

 
james 
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10-14-19 10:00 PM - Post#288567    
    In response to bradley

Seth towns is forecasted to possibly get selected at end of 2nd round on nbadraft.net

But this is a crap shoot. Miye oni is first IL kid to be drafted in 25 yrs

Scouts attend a lot of practices at Yale so I would presume Harvard etc also. This was not the case 20 yrs ago!

the biggest difference is how many kids play at high level in Europe now. That wasn’t the case either 20 yrs ago

But given the arms race in the power 5 and a possible expansion of benefits there is a ceiling on the Ivy League. The question is are they hitting it now or can they get another bump

 
mrjames 
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10-15-19 09:44 AM - Post#288580    
    In response to james

I'd be very cautious to set a key result that doesn't give you good feedback on what you're trying to measure. Assessing increases in league quality based on the draft misses an awful lot.

For all but the top leagues, draft buzz is about variance more than anything. CJ McCollum gave the Patriot League a lottery pick in 2013. Yet the Ivy League has been 5-10 spots higher in conference ranking than the Patriot every year since.

As James mentioned, the league does indeed have a player with draft buzz for the second-consecutive year (https://www.nbadraft.net/2020mock_draft). But more importantly, more players are having professional careers at much higher levels of competition than when I started covering the league close to two decades ago. More scouts have eyes on the league assessing talent, because the talent level merits it.

You can make tournament runs with a core of Top 50-150 players, who may not be draft-level prospects, but are unrecognizable talents relative to where we were in the mid-2000s. And the league has demonstrated sustained success recruiting there. To the extent the Final Four is your goal, having names on the left side of mock draft boards is of huge importance, but I think even the most optimistic among us realize that's probably unattainable given our structure.

 
rbg 
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10-16-19 09:18 AM - Post#288602    
    In response to mrjames

https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/10/15/ivy-league -...

Busting Brackets website
1. Harvard
2. Penn
3. Princeton
4. Yale
5. Cornell
6. Brown
7. Columbia
8. Dartmouth

The writer has Columbia with a healthy Stefanini at #7 and Dartmouth with a healthy Barry at #8.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-16-19 09:33 AM - Post#288603    
    In response to rbg

I tend to agree with much of this Busting Brackets projections, but this is a very cursory overview that is egregiously out of touch.

In addition to having Stefanini and Barry healthy, there is no mention of Seth Towns.

For a much better analysis, of Harvard, I'd suggest: https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/09/30/harvard-ba s...

Same publication but it seems that the two authors didn't coordinate.


 
palestra38 
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10-16-19 09:40 AM - Post#288607    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

To give them the benefit of the doubt, Harvard never said Towns was out last year---they have released no information on the kid since he was hurt in the Penn playoff game 2 years ago. So there's no reason to believe he can play until he actually plays.

 
HGA 
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Re: Busting Brackets Projections
10-16-19 10:13 AM - Post#288613    
    In response to rbg

A few comments:

I find it hard to believe that Columbia would be ranked 7th with a healthy Stefanini. I think that they would be in the 3-5 range with a talented backcourt and very decent front court. I also don't see Dartmouth at #8 with a healthy Barry and Cornell at #5 minus a Matt Morgan. As mentioned previously, Yale is questionable at #4 with the loss of four starters.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-16-19 12:29 PM - Post#288622    
    In response to HGA

SB Nation is ranking Top 25 projected Midmajors, releasing one projection each day, working down from #25. #14 BYU released today. Hoping that both Harvard and Penn are still to come.

 
Condor 
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10-17-19 07:35 AM - Post#288647    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I will predict that Harvard will be in the 8-12 range. I think Penn will have to prove it on the court before anyone ranks them.

 
mrjames 
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10-17-19 07:57 AM - Post#288648    
    In response to Condor

To be fair, Harvard is No. 4 and Penn is No. 10 among mid-majors at Bart's site. It wouldn't be a shock to see both Harvard and Penn still make the list. They both have essentially equal rankings at KenPom over the past two years, so it's not like Harvard's projection starts from a higher base or anything.

 
Condor 
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10-17-19 08:16 AM - Post#288651    
    In response to mrjames

Well, I will not attempt to argue the numbers with you, but Harvard does bring everyone back, they appear to have the best recruiting class, and they finally seem to be healthy. Penn has major losses at guard without any proven replacements, their health is still in question, and they have questionable depth. I am hopeful that Penn will be as good as some project, but until I see that they are healthy and are able to get freshmen contributions, I do not see them challenging Harvard.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-17-19 09:00 AM - Post#288652    
    In response to Condor

Yes, but there’s still room for both Harvard and Penn in this ranking. Rivalries aside, it’s better for us all if both squads perform well and are recognized.

Makes rooting for Harvard to sweep all 3 from Penn again more meaningful! Same goes for Penn fans who are undoubtedly looking to knock Harvard from this year’s pedestal.

Gotta assume Gonzaga and St. Mary’s fans root for both to be highly ranked.

 
palestra38 
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10-17-19 09:12 AM - Post#288655    
    In response to Condor

I disagree, since they did not have Betley (their best guard) the entire season last year. As much as I love Antonio, he did not have a great year offensively and we have athletic guys who should be able to come close enough on defense by the Ivy season that the return of Betley's offense should make us a better team overall. The real difference is not a step down by Penn, but a major step up by Harvard. If they learn to play together, this could be the best Ivy team in a generation.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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10-17-19 09:44 AM - Post#288657    
    In response to mrjames

Does anyone know when we'll see the coaches poll? It'll be interesting where the coaches predict the league shakes out
.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
mrjames 
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2019-20 Projections
10-17-19 10:05 AM - Post#288660    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Most years the media poll would have been released yesterday. Now that there's no teleconference, I don't have a good sense when we'll see it. I'd assume soon?

 
PennFan10 
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10-17-19 01:28 PM - Post#288668    
    In response to mrjames

Condor believes Penn has to prove it on the court but Harvard doesn’t need to. Penn has injury questions but Harvard doesn’t. Penn’s newcomers aren’t a given to contribute but Harvard’s are. Nice Crimson colored glasses.

 
palestra38 
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10-17-19 01:49 PM - Post#288670    
    In response to PennFan10

The only question for Harvard is the coaching--how he brings this talent to play together. Penn has questions in the backcourt and wasn't as good as Harvard last year to begin with.


Both have to prove it on the court---but clearly, Harvard is the favorite and the better team on paper.

 
Condor 
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10-17-19 02:40 PM - Post#288676    
    In response to PennFan10

PennFan10, while my glasses are not colored Crimson, it doesn’t mean that I can’t try to be objective. If Betley is playing at the level he was at before the injury, if Wang returns to his pre-injury form of the 1st half of last season, if Dingle is ok and is ready for D1, if Simmons can maintain a high level of play, if MLL, Martz, &/or some of the other freshmen produce, &/or if Kuba, Jackson, Scott, or someone else raises their play to become valuable rotation players, I think Penn could compete for the championship. Of course, they just need a majority of the above to be true. For Harvard, I think the only questions are Towns and the coach. However, I think Harvard will still be very good without Towns. Also, I think the team has too much talent, experience, and depth for the coach to hold them back. That is why I feel Penn has more to prove than Harvard. You seem to have some connection to the Penn team, so I would love to hear you tell me that all my concerns are unfounded.

 
HGA 
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10-17-19 02:50 PM - Post#288677    
    In response to Condor

Harvard is the preseason #1 for a reason.

 
mrjames 
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10-17-19 03:05 PM - Post#288678    
    In response to palestra38

Here's sort of how I approach this whole thing:

1) We know that Tommy *can* coach a team to a Top 50 KenPom ranking. He's done it twice.

2) We know that Tommy can successfully integrate high usage players back into the lineup after a year away.

3) We believe (probably correctly) that this team, at full strength, is more talented than those two teams.

From that, I'm not concerned about the crazy hype about Harvard. It's possible Harvard could be that good.

I also live in reality, though. In reality, the following things are true:

1) The top five players (in terms of production) from the stellar 2016 class have consistently battled injuries throughout their time at Harvard. And while all are on pace to start the year healthy, who knows how long that will last.

2) Tommy struggles to play the right combinations of players when it's not obvious which to play consistently. His 2012 and 2014 Top 50 teams were predicated on having obvious rotations.

3) Turnovers have been a YUGE problem for this class, and despite this team's consistently gaudy non-TO ORAT, there's no reason to believe that turnovers will magically decline.

So, the question of where a team will end up is a range that includes the myriad outcomes defined by all the things that could happen to personnel throughout the year. In that respect, I think Harvard's range is really, really wide, and specifically, I think it is much wider than Penn's - for one important reason. Namely, I have a lot more faith in Steve's ability to get results out of different combinations of personnel he might face in an injury-plagued season than Tommy's ability to do so.

That's a really important consideration for a Harvard team that has been decimated by injuries each of the past two seasons.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-17-19 03:22 PM - Post#288680    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:
Most years the media poll would have been released yesterday. Now that there's no teleconference, I don't have a good sense when we'll see it. I'd assume soon?



Thanks.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-17-19 05:15 PM - Post#288690    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Thanks Mike.
Notwithstanding Donahue’s ability to coach through injuries, I believe that Amaker should warrant recognition for winning 7 straight over the tourney participants + beating St. Mary’s despite a boatload on injuries.

That win at Yale was brilliant (no Towns or Bassey and both Lewis and Juzang hobbled) and the victory at St. Mary’s came without Lewis, Aiken or Towns). AMAZING!

 
SomeGuy 
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10-17-19 11:47 PM - Post#288705    
    In response to Condor

I think Betley is the key. If he is at his pre-injury level, I think it is AJ, Goodman, and Betley’s team, and the other guys are role players. Not saying that it doesn’t matter at all who plays with them, but those guys would win some games playing with Jeff2SF and P38.

 
PennFan10 
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10-18-19 03:56 AM - Post#288709    
    In response to SomeGuy

Betley is going to have a great year. The kid can shoot and tearing a patella tendon didn’t change that. He can move without the ball and this offense is awesome for a kid with his ability. Offensively I would expect to see him at or better than his level 2 years ago. The issue is on the defensive end. Can he move laterally enough to stay in front of the guys he will have to cover? Penn has been top 100 on defense mainly because they had 5 guys on the court who could guard without help. That allowed them to stay on the kick outs and make the guy with the ball work to get a shot off over their defender. If one guy can’t consistently stay in front of their assignment it requires help and then the defense begins to break down philosophically

 
palestra38 
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10-18-19 09:01 AM - Post#288720    
    In response to SomeGuy

No. I can guarantee that at age 62, I would be a yawning crevasse in any college basketball team. When I was in law school, I would have been merely bad at that level (although I had a couple of "Glory Days" games playing at Levien/Dodge). But now, fuggettaboutit.

 
palestra38 
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10-18-19 09:03 AM - Post#288721    
    In response to PennFan10

Well, that is the question. Betley cannot be a defensive liability if we are to have a very good year. And we just don't know about that right now. I agree that he should help us massively improve on the offensive end. But we can't have our bigs running up fouls because we can't stop penetration.

 
rbg 
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10-18-19 10:10 AM - Post#288733    
    In response to palestra38

ESPN mid-major predictions
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/story...

Each of the three experts picked Harvard to win the Ivy League.

- We come off a decade in which the Horizon League (twice), the Colonial and the Missouri Valley (twice) all sent teams to the Final Four. Beside the two WCC teams mentioned previously, name a team from outside the top leagues that you would not be surprised to see in Atlanta in April.

Gasaway: If I can still admit to being mildly surprised (because I would be), then I'll go with Harvard. The only thing holding this offense back last season was turnovers, and the Crimson still came within 20 minutes of the NCAA tournament. Everyone's back this season, and Bryce Aiken and his veteran cohorts are a safe bet to improve in terms of taking care of the ball. Once that happens, everything's in place for this team to score a lot of points. Watch Harvard this season, and you will be entertained. -

 
welcometothejungle 
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10-20-19 03:11 PM - Post#288805    
    In response to rbg

KenPom's preseason projections are out for the 19-20 season. Overall, he has the league starting as the 12th best league in the country, the same spot it finished last season at. For each team he has:

#75 Harvard (#76 offense, #72 defense)
#112 Penn (#124 O, #108 D)
#146 Yale (#139 O, #172 D)
#151 Columbia (#138 O, #183 D)
#176 Brown (#222 O, #131 D)
#180 Princeton (#215 O, #139 D)
#196 Dartmouth (#165 O, #236 D)
#298 Cornell (#277 O, #309 D)

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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10-20-19 04:52 PM - Post#288809    
    In response to welcometothejungle

Kenpom projected league records.

11-3 #75 Harvard (#76 offense, #72 defense)
9-5 #112 Penn (#124 O, #108 D)
7-7 #146 Yale (#139 O, #172 D)
7-7 #151 Columbia (#138 O, #183 D)
7-7 #176 Brown (#222 O, #131 D)
6-8 #180 Princeton (#215 O, #139 D)
6-8 #196 Dartmouth (#165 O, #236 D)
3-11 #298 Cornell (#277 O, #309 D)
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-20-19 08:46 PM - Post#288817    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Do we believe that KenPom incorporates season ending injuries to Stefanini and Barry?

Projects dogfight for last two tournament spots, with 5 teams mathematically involved on final weekend. Suggest every Ivy squad has a tournament chance except for Cornell (3-11).

If Crimson are fully healthy - a big if - and finish 11-3 in the league, then this league continues to improve. Guess this raises the question of KenPom's assumptions regarding Seth Towns.


 
mrjames 
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10-20-19 09:29 PM - Post#288821    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

KenPom and Bart Torvik come at this from different angles. KenPom focuses more heavily on “sticky” factors over time that can scale really easily to make predictions (eg, that teams tend to regress/progress to their recent mean over time). That means for KenPom, players are really just returning player mins and the quality of those mins, applied algorithmically. Bart actually does player builds, so losing a player can be directly accounted for with offense (and defense, less so) adjusted for accordingly (by adding minutes to existing players or bringing in new players).

KenPom tends to be biased against big moves, which means that it is likely to get the best and worst right with high accuracy (teams in the Top 50 and Bottom 50 tend not to be terribly high variance in their performance YOY). But that bias does hurt the projections of good mids that can be Top 50 at the top of their cycle while maybe averaging somewhere in the 100s on average otherwise. Bart, on the other hand, because he does that player build and not just a macro model, can catch those nuances.

This is a long way of saying that KenPom doesn’t really have anything baked in for Seth Towns or not. Seth Towns would merely be seen as returning player mins at a given efficiency. Harvard’s maxed out on returning player mins anyway, so... not sure that it would have a huge effect either way (which again is a real limitation of what KenPom is trading off when it comes to scale versus predictive quality).

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-21-19 11:26 PM - Post#288885    
    In response to mrjames

AP Preseason poll released today.

Harvard receives 24 votes (voting points?) and is listed at would be #32.

Doubt a win in opener over MIT will launch Crimson into top 25, no matter how resounding. A 6-0 start prior to the Thanksgiving tournament in Orlando and a first round matchup with Texas A&M might be enough. Three participants in that tournament are ranked above the Crimson (Maryland, Marquette, Davidson). Chance to make some noise!

 
welcometothejungle 
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10-22-19 12:18 PM - Post#288907    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

The Ivy League preseason media poll came out today: https://ivyleague.com/news/2019/10/22/mens- basketb...

1. Harvard (15 first place votes) - 134 points
2. Penn (2) - 117 points
3. Yale - 94 points
4. Princeton - 88 points
5. Brown - 62 points
6. Columbia - 51 points
T7. Cornell - 33 points
T7. Dartmouth - 33 points

 
welcometothejungle 
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10-22-19 12:22 PM - Post#288908    
    In response to welcometothejungle

CBS's Matt Norlander also published his annual 1-353 rankings: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ne ws/...

Ivy ranks:
39. Harvard
98. Penn
142. Yale
158. Princeton
175. Brown
226. Columbia
246. Dartmouth
305. Cornell

 
rbg 
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10-23-19 11:16 AM - Post#288978    
    In response to welcometothejungle

The women's preseason media poll was released this morning.

https://ivyleague.com/news/2019/10/23/princ eton-pe...

1. Princeton (10) 125
1. Penn (7) 125
3. Harvard 95
4. Yale 90
5. Cornell 60
6. Columbia 47
6. Dartmouth 47
8. Brown 23

Princeton and Penn are clearly the top two teams. A mild surprise that the two teams are tied.

I think Columbia is better than its tied for 6th spot.

 
whitakk 
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10-23-19 10:24 PM - Post#288988    
    In response to rbg

uh what??

Penn over Princeton alone is hard for me to understand, but 125 points means four voters picked Princeton to finish third (or one fourth and two thirds, etc).

I guess voters are pricing in a huge loss from Banghart? I thought she was good tactically but that wasn't the biggest reason she won; she built a great program and got the most talent.

 
rbg 
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10-28-19 08:58 AM - Post#289161    
    In response to whitakk

High-Post Hoops has a preview of the Ivy women.

https://highposthoops.com/2019/10/28/2019-20-iv y-l...

1. Princeton
2. Penn
3. Yale
4. Cornell
5. Harvard
6. Columbia
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown

Ivy Madness
1. Princeton over 4. Cornell
3. Yale over 2. Penn

1. Princeton over 3. Yale

 
Albert08 
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10-28-19 09:33 AM - Post#289170    
    In response to rbg

In his national Mid-Major Poll, ESPN's Graham Hays puts the Tigers at #8.

https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basket ball/sto...

Along with the conventional wisdom, he thinks the Carla Berube hire was as good as any to replace Banghart.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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10-28-19 10:24 AM - Post#289177    
    In response to Albert08

FWIW, there is a very cursury overview of the Ivy men's teams on Mid-Major Madness Podcast. The coverage starts at the 42.28 minute mark.

Mid-Major Madness Podcast



"...no excuses - only results!”


 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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10-29-19 03:50 PM - Post#289233    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Another take on the Ivy

The top of the Ivy League seems interesting this year, especially with how good Harvard can be, but Penn and Princeton should be solid too. How good does Harvard have to be for the Ivy to have an outside shot at a two-bid league? — John D.

From Mr. Bennett:

I’m loving the Ancient 8 question. I wasn’t smart enough to go to an Ivy League school, though I do have some ivy in my yard. So I feel qualified to answer this.

The short version: It will be extremely difficult, if not utterly inconceivable, for the Ivy to earn an at-large bid. Sure, Belmont got an at-large last season from the Ohio Valley Conference, which was a much weaker overall league than the Ivy by both KenPom.com and NET numbers. But that was a rarity. Teams such as Lipscomb, UNC-Greensboro and Furman getting snubbed is more the status quo.

The Ivy would need to pull some upsets early, and opportunities are out there. Harvard could face Texas A&M, Maryland and USC in the Orlando Invitational. Yale plays at — gulp — North Carolina on Dec. 30. Penn will get some shots, going to Alabama, Providence and Villanova and possibly playing Arizona in the Wooden Legacy. Princeton, which beat Arizona State on the road last year, somehow got Arizona State to come to its gym this season. The Tigers also travel to Indiana.

One of these Ivy teams would have to build a top-40 NET profile and then get clipped in the conference tournament title game by another top-100 team. Then pray. Hard.

It would take a whole lot of ifs, including things breaking right elsewhere. Hey, I’m totally here for two Ivy teams making the tournament, because when have kids from those schools ever caught a break in life? Still, I certainly wouldn’t count on it.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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10-29-19 04:14 PM - Post#289238    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

I pulled out the ones that matter most to us in these forums. Feel free to check out the whole article. Ivy teams in the article:

Harvard
Penn
Yale
Columbia

AND!

Dartmouth
How about that, Dartmouth is must see T.V.


1 mid-major game to watch every day this season
Just go ahead and bookmark this


Best Mid-Major Games To Watch

By Russell Steinberg @Russ_Steinberg Oct 29, 2019, 5:05am PDT

If you’re anything like me, you’re starting to think about how you’re going to attack this college basketball season — mainly, what days you’re going to camp out on your couch and avoid human contact.

I’ll make your job a little easier (or harder, depending on how you look at it). Here’s one game for every day of the college basketball season that you’re going to want to watch. Games featuring schools from the traditional seven high-major conferences are excluded due to [gestures wildly at name of website].

TV info is listed. Some of them are local channels, so if you don’t get them, don’t yell at me. Other people do. Think about someone else for a change, okay?

All times are Eastern.

Nov. 5: Yale at Stony Brook, 7 p.m., SNY/ESPN+

Some might try to tell you the biggest games in New York on opening night are happening at Madison Square Garden. Don’t believe them. Yale and Stony Brook are both quality teams picked to finish just below the runaway favorites in their conferences. This would be a good resume booster for both that could help a lot come March. Jordan Bruner is the Bulldogs’ lone returning starter, but he’s a force. The rebounding and shot-blocking extraordinaire will anchor a strong front court for Yale. Geno Ford is in his first season with the Seawolves and Elijah Olyani is the guy to watch on his side.

Nov. 11: Florida Gulf Coast at Dartmouth, 7 p.m., ESPN+

Shoutout Dartmouth.

Nov. 14: Siena at Harvard, 7 p.m., ESPN+

Dec. 2: Columbia at Delaware, FLOSports, 7 p.m.

Dec. 6: Columbia at Bryant, NEC Front Row, 7 p.m.

NEC Front Row is the best small-conference digital network in Division I, complete with some A+ local ads.

Dec. 11: Yale at UMass, NESN, 7 p.m.

Dec. 30: Albany at Columbia, ESPN+, 7 p.m.

Jan. 31: Harvard at Penn, ESPNU, 5 p.m.

The two favorites in the Ivy League square off at the Palestra in the first of two meetings that could decide the regular season crown. Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns are finally back together (in theory... Aiken technically hasn’t been cleared yet) and they have the Crimson already receiving some Top 25 hype. The Quakers are no pushover, however, and are led by unanimous all-conference first-teamer AJ Brodeur. Brodeur scored in double figures 28 times last season and averaged 17.6 per game.

Feb. 7: Davidson at VCU, ESPN2, 7 p.m.

No disrespect to the Ivy League, but it feels like the A-10 is starting to take over Friday nights during conference season. Sure, you can watch Harvard vs. Yale on ESPNU if you want. Or you could watch two probable Top 25 teams battle it out on the deuce.

Feb. 28: Penn at Yale, 7 p.m., ESPN+

"...no excuses - only results!”


 
mrjames 
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10-29-19 05:10 PM - Post#289248    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

A lot is being and has been said about two bids on these boards. I don't want to get into the arguments and narrative and the different sides here, but I do want to highlight one thing that continually gets missed.

There's always a ton of focus on OOC opportunities - and that's obviously an important part of at large consideration. But the bigger key for mids to get bids is to be part of leagues with a good number of Tier I and II opportunities. If you look at the most successful mid-major leagues at getting at large bids, you'll see that they had a lot of those chances to go around in the years they secured bids.

So, it's really impossible to assess two bid possibilities without talking about expectations for the league's teams. If we come close to Bart Torvik's preseason rankings and give Harvard and Penn a Tier I game (at each other) and three Tier II games (home vs. each other, at Princeton and at Columbia), that's a much different landscape than the top team having one Tier II game in league play (at the second best team).

To some extent, that's what killed Monmouth in 2016, after putting up an incredible OOC campaign, they had one other top 100 team to play (3X) over their final 21 games.

2BidIvy isn't going anywhere unless it can produce four Top 135 NET teams and have a couple of those in the Top 75. Have to have those in league opportunities no matter what the OOC run looks like.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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10-30-19 08:52 AM - Post#289268    
    In response to james

MEN’S BASKETBALL: What to expect around the Ivy League in 2019–20
Harvard, Penn, Yale, Princeton top 2019-20 preseason media poll

WILLIAM MCCORMACK
12:23 AM, OCT 29, 2019

Click here to view the article.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
rbg 
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2019-20 Projections
10-30-19 09:07 AM - Post#289270    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/29/nc aa-basketb...

Mid-Major Team to Watch
Woo: Harvard

Harvard should play its way into the Top 25 picture sooner than later, with the only kicker being an extremely weak overall schedule that leaves potential for a heavy win total, but perhaps a lack of the requisite adversity required to keep up with top-flight opponents come March. The Crimson can account for a whopping 96.4% of last season’s minutes on their current roster, led by point guard Bryce Aiken and versatile forward Seth Towns (who missed last season with injury), and boast a talented, senior-driven group that’s thirsty to make it to the NCAA tournament for the first time. The talent level isn’t in question here. After consecutive losses in the Ivy League tournament final, it’s just a matter of getting the results they deserve, and an opportunity in the Big Dance.

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/28/nc aa-basketb...

32. Bryce Aiken, Harvard, Senior
Harvard looks one of this season’s most dangerous small-conference teams, due in large part to Aiken, whose playmaking savvy and perimeter shooting (22.2 points per game while using a third of his team’s possessions last season) could make the the Crimson a dangerous match for high-major opposition. He’s succeeded in spite of his small stature, the entire roster returns around him, and he has room to improve from an efficiency standpoint. But Aiken’s quickness off the dribble and passing poise makes him the Ivy League’s top player, and one of the more unheralded star guards in the country.

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/25/mi d-major-ba...

10. Harvard

Bryce Aiken! Seth Towns! Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns! Playing together again! Aiken, a 2019 All-Ivy First Team guard, playing with Towns, the 2018 Ivy League Player of the Year! (And don’t forget 2019 Ivy League Newcomer of the Year Noah Kirkwood!)

Last year, Aiken returned right after the start of conference play to lead the Crimson to a share of the Ivy League regular season title and title game loss to Yale. More than 95% of the minutes and points from that team are back this year, except now they’re also going to add the 2018 conference player of the year to the lineup.

The Crimson can only play as many as four games against power conference teams, depending on how they do at their Thanksgiving tournament in Disney World, and one of those four would be against Cal, which barely counts. Their opportunities to prove themselves will be limited. Still, they could roll through the Ivy League and enter March as a terrifying 12-seed.


Edited by rbg on 10-30-19 09:13 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
10-30-19 09:10 AM - Post#289271    
    In response to rbg

That's an accurate review.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-30-19 12:36 PM - Post#289286    
    In response to palestra38

FWIW, if I had to rank/tier the teams going into the year, here’s what I generally expect:

1) Harvard (Nat’l Rank: 50)
2) Penn (95)
3-4) Princeton/Yale (~150)
5) Brown (190)
6-7) Columbia/Dartmouth (~225-250)
8) Cornell (275)

So, counter to a lot of what’s being written (and what I would have hoped before a miserable offseason), I think this is going to be a year in-line with some of our better years this decade, but nothing groundbreaking. Hope I’m wrong.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
11-01-19 07:57 AM - Post#289413    
    In response to mrjames

Your projections seem reasonable and perhaps a tad bit optimistic other than for Harvard, Penn and Brown. The injury factor is obviously a wild card factor. Plus predictions are just that predictions, go ask MLB executives regarding Washington winning the WS.

I do believe that Harvard has a real vs wishful thinking opportunity to get to the NCAA Tournament even if they lose IvyMadness. Their seniors should be driven by one last chance, like Weisz and Cook. They may well finish at or near being a top 25 team. Penn will need a really good non-conference performance to get a bid if they do not win IvyMadness and the quality of other IL teams this year will probably not help them. Let's hope that we are surprised this year with the league's overall performance -- it could happen although unlikely.

The formula to get a 2nd NCAA bid remains the same -- have one outstanding team that loses IvyMadness. May be tough to happen this year based on homecourt but that is always another story when it comes to "IVYMADNESS".

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
11-01-19 08:01 AM - Post#289415    
    In response to bradley

I'll believe it when I see it, but I think that no matter what happens there will not be a second Ivy bid. So it's all Harvard's bid to lose up at their tiny cage.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
2019-20 Projections
11-01-19 10:28 AM - Post#289437    
    In response to palestra38

Agreed. If Harvard plays to at top 50 level but loses the Tournament there is no way it gets a bid. Heck, if Harvard plays near or to top 25 level but loses Tournament I don't see a 2nd bid. Sounds harsh but with all the pressure on the Power 5 coaches plus some very talented MidMajor squads this year I can't see the committee inviting 2 Ivy squads. Harvard either needs to win its last game of the season OR each of the first 29 contests.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 11-01-19 10:28 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
11-01-19 11:25 AM - Post#289448    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

We have never had a 2nd bid or a sniff of one. We also haven't had this level of talent in the IL, ever. As MRJames has already said, last year, if Penn had continued to play at the Big 5 Championship level and gone 12-1 in OOC with wins against Miami, Villanova, Oregon State, Temple, LaSalle, Toledo, etc, and then gone through the IL and lost in the title game to Yale.....They would have had a very strong resume and been a contender for a 2nd bid.

As MrJames has also noted, Harvard isn't playing the kind of OOC schedule this year that will put them in a position to win a non auto bid, but Penn and Yale both have schedules that could give them a strong resume. Unlikely it will happen but one year, if the talent keeps trending and the OOC schedules stay strong, it's bound to force the issue with the committee.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-01-19 11:45 AM - Post#289451    
    In response to PennFan10

To be fair, while it seems to get forgotten around these parts, Harvard in 2011 was pretty darn close to the bubble. If Kyle Casey hadn't missed the Michigan game (which they lost by three), Harvard probably makes the tourney as an at large. (The stupid way the NCAA calculates SOS - by opponent Ws and Ls - also played a huge role as well).

RPI 35
Top 50: 1-4
51-100: 2-1

At 2-3 vs. Top 50 and an RPI around 30, that would have been tough to ignore.

 
welcometothejungle 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
11-01-19 03:46 PM - Post#289478    
    In response to mrjames

Sports Illustrated published their 1-353 rankings today: https://www.si.com/college/2019/11/01/nc aa-basketb...

71. Harvard
107. Penn
141. Princeton
177. Yale
180. Columbia
193. Brown
199. Dartmouth
264. Cornell

Likely that Columbia's ranking isn't taking into account Tape's departure from the team as that just came out yesterday

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
11-01-19 06:17 PM - Post#289488    
    In response to mrjames

True but the possibility of 2 bids every 8 to 10 years probably does not cut it.

I do think that the Harvard OOC schedule does not help their cause this year, in all likelihood, but it is possible that the IL could get two bids if Harvard does not win IvyMadness. I am surprised that Amaker did go for a more challenging schedule. Henderson did it several years ago when he had the seniors -- it did not work but probably worth the risk.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 805

Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
11-02-19 09:34 PM - Post#289526    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

2019-20 College Basketball Preseason Projected Standings & Win Totals
November 1, 2019 - by David Hess


.............Conf.......Overall
.............W---L......W---L.......
Harvard 10.1-3.9 19.8-7.2
Conf. Odds
44.9%
Tourney Odds
49.8%

U Penn 8.2-5.8 14.2-10.8
Conf. Odds
17.1%
Tourney Odds
14.1%

Yale 8.1-5.9 16.2-12.8
Conf. Odds
15.0%
Tourney Odds
13.2%

Princeton 6.8-7.2 12.8-13.2
Conf. Odds
7.2%
Tourney Odds
6.9%

Columbia 6.6-7.4 14.6-14.4
Conf. Odds
6.0%
Tourney Odds
5.8%

Brown 6.3-7.7 13.7-13.3
Conf. Odds
5.1%
Tourney Odds
4.8%

Dartmouth 6.2-7.8 14.8-14.2
Conf. Odds
4.5%
Tourney Odds
4.7%

Cornell 3.6-10.4 9.1-17.9
Conf. Odds
0.4%
Tourney Odds
0.6%
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
11-03-19 04:16 PM - Post#289577    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

The only positive increment I see for Harvard’s minuscule chances of an at-large bid is that they have at least one pretty well-known star to feed the low-information opinion machine. Even then, they will need to bomb weaker opponents, a la Gonzaga, to even be discussed that way.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 805

Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
11-03-19 06:12 PM - Post#289588    
    In response to SRP

Yeah the strength of schedule across the league makes it very difficult to warrant two bids even if the top teams go nearly undefeated.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
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