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Username Post: 2019-20 Projections        (Topic#23008)
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5556

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-29-19 04:10 PM - Post#289248    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

A lot is being and has been said about two bids on these boards. I don't want to get into the arguments and narrative and the different sides here, but I do want to highlight one thing that continually gets missed.

There's always a ton of focus on OOC opportunities - and that's obviously an important part of at large consideration. But the bigger key for mids to get bids is to be part of leagues with a good number of Tier I and II opportunities. If you look at the most successful mid-major leagues at getting at large bids, you'll see that they had a lot of those chances to go around in the years they secured bids.

So, it's really impossible to assess two bid possibilities without talking about expectations for the league's teams. If we come close to Bart Torvik's preseason rankings and give Harvard and Penn a Tier I game (at each other) and three Tier II games (home vs. each other, at Princeton and at Columbia), that's a much different landscape than the top team having one Tier II game in league play (at the second best team).

To some extent, that's what killed Monmouth in 2016, after putting up an incredible OOC campaign, they had one other top 100 team to play (3X) over their final 21 games.

2BidIvy isn't going anywhere unless it can produce four Top 135 NET teams and have a couple of those in the Top 75. Have to have those in league opportunities no matter what the OOC run looks like.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 748

Age: 47
Reg: 05-19-16
10-30-19 07:52 AM - Post#289268    
    In response to james

MEN’S BASKETBALL: What to expect around the Ivy League in 2019–20
Harvard, Penn, Yale, Princeton top 2019-20 preseason media poll

WILLIAM MCCORMACK
12:23 AM, OCT 29, 2019

Click here to view the article.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
rbg 
PhD Student
Posts: 1907

Reg: 10-20-14
2019-20 Projections
10-30-19 08:07 AM - Post#289270    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/29/nc aa-basketb...

Mid-Major Team to Watch
Woo: Harvard

Harvard should play its way into the Top 25 picture sooner than later, with the only kicker being an extremely weak overall schedule that leaves potential for a heavy win total, but perhaps a lack of the requisite adversity required to keep up with top-flight opponents come March. The Crimson can account for a whopping 96.4% of last season’s minutes on their current roster, led by point guard Bryce Aiken and versatile forward Seth Towns (who missed last season with injury), and boast a talented, senior-driven group that’s thirsty to make it to the NCAA tournament for the first time. The talent level isn’t in question here. After consecutive losses in the Ivy League tournament final, it’s just a matter of getting the results they deserve, and an opportunity in the Big Dance.

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/28/nc aa-basketb...

32. Bryce Aiken, Harvard, Senior
Harvard looks one of this season’s most dangerous small-conference teams, due in large part to Aiken, whose playmaking savvy and perimeter shooting (22.2 points per game while using a third of his team’s possessions last season) could make the the Crimson a dangerous match for high-major opposition. He’s succeeded in spite of his small stature, the entire roster returns around him, and he has room to improve from an efficiency standpoint. But Aiken’s quickness off the dribble and passing poise makes him the Ivy League’s top player, and one of the more unheralded star guards in the country.

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/25/mi d-major-ba...

10. Harvard

Bryce Aiken! Seth Towns! Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns! Playing together again! Aiken, a 2019 All-Ivy First Team guard, playing with Towns, the 2018 Ivy League Player of the Year! (And don’t forget 2019 Ivy League Newcomer of the Year Noah Kirkwood!)

Last year, Aiken returned right after the start of conference play to lead the Crimson to a share of the Ivy League regular season title and title game loss to Yale. More than 95% of the minutes and points from that team are back this year, except now they’re also going to add the 2018 conference player of the year to the lineup.

The Crimson can only play as many as four games against power conference teams, depending on how they do at their Thanksgiving tournament in Disney World, and one of those four would be against Cal, which barely counts. Their opportunities to prove themselves will be limited. Still, they could roll through the Ivy League and enter March as a terrifying 12-seed.


Edited by rbg on 10-30-19 08:13 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 22417

Reg: 11-21-04
10-30-19 08:10 AM - Post#289271    
    In response to rbg

That's an accurate review.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5556

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-30-19 11:36 AM - Post#289286    
    In response to palestra38

FWIW, if I had to rank/tier the teams going into the year, here’s what I generally expect:

1) Harvard (Nat’l Rank: 50)
2) Penn (95)
3-4) Princeton/Yale (~150)
5) Brown (190)
6-7) Columbia/Dartmouth (~225-250)
8) Cornell (275)

So, counter to a lot of what’s being written (and what I would have hoped before a miserable offseason), I think this is going to be a year in-line with some of our better years this decade, but nothing groundbreaking. Hope I’m wrong.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1211

Age: 70
Reg: 01-15-16
11-01-19 06:57 AM - Post#289413    
    In response to mrjames

Your projections seem reasonable and perhaps a tad bit optimistic other than for Harvard, Penn and Brown. The injury factor is obviously a wild card factor. Plus predictions are just that predictions, go ask MLB executives regarding Washington winning the WS.

I do believe that Harvard has a real vs wishful thinking opportunity to get to the NCAA Tournament even if they lose IvyMadness. Their seniors should be driven by one last chance, like Weisz and Cook. They may well finish at or near being a top 25 team. Penn will need a really good non-conference performance to get a bid if they do not win IvyMadness and the quality of other IL teams this year will probably not help them. Let's hope that we are surprised this year with the league's overall performance -- it could happen although unlikely.

The formula to get a 2nd NCAA bid remains the same -- have one outstanding team that loses IvyMadness. May be tough to happen this year based on homecourt but that is always another story when it comes to "IVYMADNESS".

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 22417

Reg: 11-21-04
11-01-19 07:01 AM - Post#289415    
    In response to bradley

I'll believe it when I see it, but I think that no matter what happens there will not be a second Ivy bid. So it's all Harvard's bid to lose up at their tiny cage.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1704

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
2019-20 Projections
11-01-19 09:28 AM - Post#289437    
    In response to palestra38

Agreed. If Harvard plays to at top 50 level but loses the Tournament there is no way it gets a bid. Heck, if Harvard plays near or to top 25 level but loses Tournament I don't see a 2nd bid. Sounds harsh but with all the pressure on the Power 5 coaches plus some very talented MidMajor squads this year I can't see the committee inviting 2 Ivy squads. Harvard either needs to win its last game of the season OR each of the first 29 contests.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 11-01-19 09:28 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2397

Reg: 02-15-15
11-01-19 10:25 AM - Post#289448    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

We have never had a 2nd bid or a sniff of one. We also haven't had this level of talent in the IL, ever. As MRJames has already said, last year, if Penn had continued to play at the Big 5 Championship level and gone 12-1 in OOC with wins against Miami, Villanova, Oregon State, Temple, LaSalle, Toledo, etc, and then gone through the IL and lost in the title game to Yale.....They would have had a very strong resume and been a contender for a 2nd bid.

As MrJames has also noted, Harvard isn't playing the kind of OOC schedule this year that will put them in a position to win a non auto bid, but Penn and Yale both have schedules that could give them a strong resume. Unlikely it will happen but one year, if the talent keeps trending and the OOC schedules stay strong, it's bound to force the issue with the committee.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5556

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-01-19 10:45 AM - Post#289451    
    In response to PennFan10

To be fair, while it seems to get forgotten around these parts, Harvard in 2011 was pretty darn close to the bubble. If Kyle Casey hadn't missed the Michigan game (which they lost by three), Harvard probably makes the tourney as an at large. (The stupid way the NCAA calculates SOS - by opponent Ws and Ls - also played a huge role as well).

RPI 35
Top 50: 1-4
51-100: 2-1

At 2-3 vs. Top 50 and an RPI around 30, that would have been tough to ignore.

 
welcometothejungle 
Freshman
Posts: 21

Age: 22
Reg: 07-31-19
11-01-19 02:46 PM - Post#289478    
    In response to mrjames

Sports Illustrated published their 1-353 rankings today: https://www.si.com/college/2019/11/01/nc aa-basketb...

71. Harvard
107. Penn
141. Princeton
177. Yale
180. Columbia
193. Brown
199. Dartmouth
264. Cornell

Likely that Columbia's ranking isn't taking into account Tape's departure from the team as that just came out yesterday

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1211

Age: 70
Reg: 01-15-16
11-01-19 05:17 PM - Post#289488    
    In response to mrjames

True but the possibility of 2 bids every 8 to 10 years probably does not cut it.

I do think that the Harvard OOC schedule does not help their cause this year, in all likelihood, but it is possible that the IL could get two bids if Harvard does not win IvyMadness. I am surprised that Amaker did go for a more challenging schedule. Henderson did it several years ago when he had the seniors -- it did not work but probably worth the risk.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 748

Age: 47
Reg: 05-19-16
11-02-19 08:34 PM - Post#289526    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

2019-20 College Basketball Preseason Projected Standings & Win Totals
November 1, 2019 - by David Hess


.............Conf.......Overall
.............W---L......W---L.......
Harvard 10.1-3.9 19.8-7.2
Conf. Odds
44.9%
Tourney Odds
49.8%

U Penn 8.2-5.8 14.2-10.8
Conf. Odds
17.1%
Tourney Odds
14.1%

Yale 8.1-5.9 16.2-12.8
Conf. Odds
15.0%
Tourney Odds
13.2%

Princeton 6.8-7.2 12.8-13.2
Conf. Odds
7.2%
Tourney Odds
6.9%

Columbia 6.6-7.4 14.6-14.4
Conf. Odds
6.0%
Tourney Odds
5.8%

Brown 6.3-7.7 13.7-13.3
Conf. Odds
5.1%
Tourney Odds
4.8%

Dartmouth 6.2-7.8 14.8-14.2
Conf. Odds
4.5%
Tourney Odds
4.7%

Cornell 3.6-10.4 9.1-17.9
Conf. Odds
0.4%
Tourney Odds
0.6%
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3844

Reg: 02-04-06
11-03-19 03:16 PM - Post#289577    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

The only positive increment I see for Harvard’s minuscule chances of an at-large bid is that they have at least one pretty well-known star to feed the low-information opinion machine. Even then, they will need to bomb weaker opponents, a la Gonzaga, to even be discussed that way.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 748

Age: 47
Reg: 05-19-16
11-03-19 05:12 PM - Post#289588    
    In response to SRP

Yeah the strength of schedule across the league makes it very difficult to warrant two bids even if the top teams go nearly undefeated.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
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