james
Masters Student
Posts: 801
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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10-14-19 10:00 PM - Post#288567
In response to bradley
Seth towns is forecasted to possibly get selected at end of 2nd round on nbadraft.net
But this is a crap shoot. Miye oni is first IL kid to be drafted in 25 yrs
Scouts attend a lot of practices at Yale so I would presume Harvard etc also. This was not the case 20 yrs ago!
the biggest difference is how many kids play at high level in Europe now. That wasn’t the case either 20 yrs ago
But given the arms race in the power 5 and a possible expansion of benefits there is a ceiling on the Ivy League. The question is are they hitting it now or can they get another bump
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-15-19 09:44 AM - Post#288580
In response to james
I'd be very cautious to set a key result that doesn't give you good feedback on what you're trying to measure. Assessing increases in league quality based on the draft misses an awful lot.
For all but the top leagues, draft buzz is about variance more than anything. CJ McCollum gave the Patriot League a lottery pick in 2013. Yet the Ivy League has been 5-10 spots higher in conference ranking than the Patriot every year since.
As James mentioned, the league does indeed have a player with draft buzz for the second-consecutive year (https://www.nbadraft.net/2020mock_draft). But more importantly, more players are having professional careers at much higher levels of competition than when I started covering the league close to two decades ago. More scouts have eyes on the league assessing talent, because the talent level merits it.
You can make tournament runs with a core of Top 50-150 players, who may not be draft-level prospects, but are unrecognizable talents relative to where we were in the mid-2000s. And the league has demonstrated sustained success recruiting there. To the extent the Final Four is your goal, having names on the left side of mock draft boards is of huge importance, but I think even the most optimistic among us realize that's probably unattainable given our structure.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3068
Reg: 10-20-14
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10-16-19 09:18 AM - Post#288602
In response to mrjames
https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/10/15/ivy-league -...
Busting Brackets website
1. Harvard
2. Penn
3. Princeton
4. Yale
5. Cornell
6. Brown
7. Columbia
8. Dartmouth
The writer has Columbia with a healthy Stefanini at #7 and Dartmouth with a healthy Barry at #8.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2701
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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10-16-19 09:33 AM - Post#288603
In response to rbg
I tend to agree with much of this Busting Brackets projections, but this is a very cursory overview that is egregiously out of touch.
In addition to having Stefanini and Barry healthy, there is no mention of Seth Towns.
For a much better analysis, of Harvard, I'd suggest: https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/09/30/harvard-ba s...
Same publication but it seems that the two authors didn't coordinate.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-16-19 09:40 AM - Post#288607
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
To give them the benefit of the doubt, Harvard never said Towns was out last year---they have released no information on the kid since he was hurt in the Penn playoff game 2 years ago. So there's no reason to believe he can play until he actually plays.
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HGA
Sophomore
Posts: 106
Loc: New York
Reg: 10-16-18
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Re: Busting Brackets Projections
10-16-19 10:13 AM - Post#288613
In response to rbg
A few comments:
I find it hard to believe that Columbia would be ranked 7th with a healthy Stefanini. I think that they would be in the 3-5 range with a talented backcourt and very decent front court. I also don't see Dartmouth at #8 with a healthy Barry and Cornell at #5 minus a Matt Morgan. As mentioned previously, Yale is questionable at #4 with the loss of four starters.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2701
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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10-16-19 12:29 PM - Post#288622
In response to HGA
SB Nation is ranking Top 25 projected Midmajors, releasing one projection each day, working down from #25. #14 BYU released today. Hoping that both Harvard and Penn are still to come.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-17-19 07:35 AM - Post#288647
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I will predict that Harvard will be in the 8-12 range. I think Penn will have to prove it on the court before anyone ranks them.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-17-19 07:57 AM - Post#288648
In response to Condor
To be fair, Harvard is No. 4 and Penn is No. 10 among mid-majors at Bart's site. It wouldn't be a shock to see both Harvard and Penn still make the list. They both have essentially equal rankings at KenPom over the past two years, so it's not like Harvard's projection starts from a higher base or anything.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-17-19 08:16 AM - Post#288651
In response to mrjames
Well, I will not attempt to argue the numbers with you, but Harvard does bring everyone back, they appear to have the best recruiting class, and they finally seem to be healthy. Penn has major losses at guard without any proven replacements, their health is still in question, and they have questionable depth. I am hopeful that Penn will be as good as some project, but until I see that they are healthy and are able to get freshmen contributions, I do not see them challenging Harvard.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2701
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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10-17-19 09:00 AM - Post#288652
In response to Condor
Yes, but there’s still room for both Harvard and Penn in this ranking. Rivalries aside, it’s better for us all if both squads perform well and are recognized.
Makes rooting for Harvard to sweep all 3 from Penn again more meaningful! Same goes for Penn fans who are undoubtedly looking to knock Harvard from this year’s pedestal.
Gotta assume Gonzaga and St. Mary’s fans root for both to be highly ranked.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-17-19 09:12 AM - Post#288655
In response to Condor
I disagree, since they did not have Betley (their best guard) the entire season last year. As much as I love Antonio, he did not have a great year offensively and we have athletic guys who should be able to come close enough on defense by the Ivy season that the return of Betley's offense should make us a better team overall. The real difference is not a step down by Penn, but a major step up by Harvard. If they learn to play together, this could be the best Ivy team in a generation.
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 806
Age: 52
Reg: 05-19-16
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10-17-19 09:44 AM - Post#288657
In response to mrjames
Does anyone know when we'll see the coaches poll? It'll be interesting where the coaches predict the league shakes out
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| "...no excuses - only results!†|
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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2019-20 Projections
10-17-19 10:05 AM - Post#288660
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Most years the media poll would have been released yesterday. Now that there's no teleconference, I don't have a good sense when we'll see it. I'd assume soon?
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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10-17-19 01:28 PM - Post#288668
In response to mrjames
Condor believes Penn has to prove it on the court but Harvard doesn’t need to. Penn has injury questions but Harvard doesn’t. Penn’s newcomers aren’t a given to contribute but Harvard’s are. Nice Crimson colored glasses.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-17-19 01:49 PM - Post#288670
In response to PennFan10
The only question for Harvard is the coaching--how he brings this talent to play together. Penn has questions in the backcourt and wasn't as good as Harvard last year to begin with.
Both have to prove it on the court---but clearly, Harvard is the favorite and the better team on paper.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-17-19 02:40 PM - Post#288676
In response to PennFan10
PennFan10, while my glasses are not colored Crimson, it doesn’t mean that I can’t try to be objective. If Betley is playing at the level he was at before the injury, if Wang returns to his pre-injury form of the 1st half of last season, if Dingle is ok and is ready for D1, if Simmons can maintain a high level of play, if MLL, Martz, &/or some of the other freshmen produce, &/or if Kuba, Jackson, Scott, or someone else raises their play to become valuable rotation players, I think Penn could compete for the championship. Of course, they just need a majority of the above to be true. For Harvard, I think the only questions are Towns and the coach. However, I think Harvard will still be very good without Towns. Also, I think the team has too much talent, experience, and depth for the coach to hold them back. That is why I feel Penn has more to prove than Harvard. You seem to have some connection to the Penn team, so I would love to hear you tell me that all my concerns are unfounded.
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HGA
Sophomore
Posts: 106
Loc: New York
Reg: 10-16-18
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10-17-19 02:50 PM - Post#288677
In response to Condor
Harvard is the preseason #1 for a reason.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-17-19 03:05 PM - Post#288678
In response to palestra38
Here's sort of how I approach this whole thing:
1) We know that Tommy *can* coach a team to a Top 50 KenPom ranking. He's done it twice.
2) We know that Tommy can successfully integrate high usage players back into the lineup after a year away.
3) We believe (probably correctly) that this team, at full strength, is more talented than those two teams.
From that, I'm not concerned about the crazy hype about Harvard. It's possible Harvard could be that good.
I also live in reality, though. In reality, the following things are true:
1) The top five players (in terms of production) from the stellar 2016 class have consistently battled injuries throughout their time at Harvard. And while all are on pace to start the year healthy, who knows how long that will last.
2) Tommy struggles to play the right combinations of players when it's not obvious which to play consistently. His 2012 and 2014 Top 50 teams were predicated on having obvious rotations.
3) Turnovers have been a YUGE problem for this class, and despite this team's consistently gaudy non-TO ORAT, there's no reason to believe that turnovers will magically decline.
So, the question of where a team will end up is a range that includes the myriad outcomes defined by all the things that could happen to personnel throughout the year. In that respect, I think Harvard's range is really, really wide, and specifically, I think it is much wider than Penn's - for one important reason. Namely, I have a lot more faith in Steve's ability to get results out of different combinations of personnel he might face in an injury-plagued season than Tommy's ability to do so.
That's a really important consideration for a Harvard team that has been decimated by injuries each of the past two seasons.
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 806
Age: 52
Reg: 05-19-16
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Re: 2019-20 Projections
10-17-19 03:22 PM - Post#288680
In response to mrjames
Most years the media poll would have been released yesterday. Now that there's no teleconference, I don't have a good sense when we'll see it. I'd assume soon?
Thanks.
| "...no excuses - only results!†|
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