HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
|
10-17-19 05:15 PM - Post#288690
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Thanks Mike.
Notwithstanding Donahue’s ability to coach through injuries, I believe that Amaker should warrant recognition for winning 7 straight over the tourney participants + beating St. Mary’s despite a boatload on injuries.
That win at Yale was brilliant (no Towns or Bassey and both Lewis and Juzang hobbled) and the victory at St. Mary’s came without Lewis, Aiken or Towns). AMAZING!
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
10-17-19 11:47 PM - Post#288705
In response to Condor
I think Betley is the key. If he is at his pre-injury level, I think it is AJ, Goodman, and Betley’s team, and the other guys are role players. Not saying that it doesn’t matter at all who plays with them, but those guys would win some games playing with Jeff2SF and P38.
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
10-18-19 03:56 AM - Post#288709
In response to SomeGuy
Betley is going to have a great year. The kid can shoot and tearing a patella tendon didn’t change that. He can move without the ball and this offense is awesome for a kid with his ability. Offensively I would expect to see him at or better than his level 2 years ago. The issue is on the defensive end. Can he move laterally enough to stay in front of the guys he will have to cover? Penn has been top 100 on defense mainly because they had 5 guys on the court who could guard without help. That allowed them to stay on the kick outs and make the guy with the ball work to get a shot off over their defender. If one guy can’t consistently stay in front of their assignment it requires help and then the defense begins to break down philosophically
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
|
10-18-19 09:01 AM - Post#288720
In response to SomeGuy
No. I can guarantee that at age 62, I would be a yawning crevasse in any college basketball team. When I was in law school, I would have been merely bad at that level (although I had a couple of "Glory Days" games playing at Levien/Dodge). But now, fuggettaboutit.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
|
10-18-19 09:03 AM - Post#288721
In response to PennFan10
Well, that is the question. Betley cannot be a defensive liability if we are to have a very good year. And we just don't know about that right now. I agree that he should help us massively improve on the offensive end. But we can't have our bigs running up fouls because we can't stop penetration.
|
rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3050
Reg: 10-20-14
|
10-18-19 10:10 AM - Post#288733
In response to palestra38
ESPN mid-major predictions
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/story...
Each of the three experts picked Harvard to win the Ivy League.
- We come off a decade in which the Horizon League (twice), the Colonial and the Missouri Valley (twice) all sent teams to the Final Four. Beside the two WCC teams mentioned previously, name a team from outside the top leagues that you would not be surprised to see in Atlanta in April.
Gasaway: If I can still admit to being mildly surprised (because I would be), then I'll go with Harvard. The only thing holding this offense back last season was turnovers, and the Crimson still came within 20 minutes of the NCAA tournament. Everyone's back this season, and Bryce Aiken and his veteran cohorts are a safe bet to improve in terms of taking care of the ball. Once that happens, everything's in place for this team to score a lot of points. Watch Harvard this season, and you will be entertained. -
|
welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
|
10-20-19 03:11 PM - Post#288805
In response to rbg
KenPom's preseason projections are out for the 19-20 season. Overall, he has the league starting as the 12th best league in the country, the same spot it finished last season at. For each team he has:
#75 Harvard (#76 offense, #72 defense)
#112 Penn (#124 O, #108 D)
#146 Yale (#139 O, #172 D)
#151 Columbia (#138 O, #183 D)
#176 Brown (#222 O, #131 D)
#180 Princeton (#215 O, #139 D)
#196 Dartmouth (#165 O, #236 D)
#298 Cornell (#277 O, #309 D)
|
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 806
Age: 52
Reg: 05-19-16
|
10-20-19 04:52 PM - Post#288809
In response to welcometothejungle
Kenpom projected league records.
11-3 #75 Harvard (#76 offense, #72 defense)
9-5 #112 Penn (#124 O, #108 D)
7-7 #146 Yale (#139 O, #172 D)
7-7 #151 Columbia (#138 O, #183 D)
7-7 #176 Brown (#222 O, #131 D)
6-8 #180 Princeton (#215 O, #139 D)
6-8 #196 Dartmouth (#165 O, #236 D)
3-11 #298 Cornell (#277 O, #309 D)
| "...no excuses - only results!†|
|
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
|
10-20-19 08:46 PM - Post#288817
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Do we believe that KenPom incorporates season ending injuries to Stefanini and Barry?
Projects dogfight for last two tournament spots, with 5 teams mathematically involved on final weekend. Suggest every Ivy squad has a tournament chance except for Cornell (3-11).
If Crimson are fully healthy - a big if - and finish 11-3 in the league, then this league continues to improve. Guess this raises the question of KenPom's assumptions regarding Seth Towns.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
10-20-19 09:29 PM - Post#288821
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
KenPom and Bart Torvik come at this from different angles. KenPom focuses more heavily on “sticky†factors over time that can scale really easily to make predictions (eg, that teams tend to regress/progress to their recent mean over time). That means for KenPom, players are really just returning player mins and the quality of those mins, applied algorithmically. Bart actually does player builds, so losing a player can be directly accounted for with offense (and defense, less so) adjusted for accordingly (by adding minutes to existing players or bringing in new players).
KenPom tends to be biased against big moves, which means that it is likely to get the best and worst right with high accuracy (teams in the Top 50 and Bottom 50 tend not to be terribly high variance in their performance YOY). But that bias does hurt the projections of good mids that can be Top 50 at the top of their cycle while maybe averaging somewhere in the 100s on average otherwise. Bart, on the other hand, because he does that player build and not just a macro model, can catch those nuances.
This is a long way of saying that KenPom doesn’t really have anything baked in for Seth Towns or not. Seth Towns would merely be seen as returning player mins at a given efficiency. Harvard’s maxed out on returning player mins anyway, so... not sure that it would have a huge effect either way (which again is a real limitation of what KenPom is trading off when it comes to scale versus predictive quality).
|
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
|
10-21-19 11:26 PM - Post#288885
In response to mrjames
AP Preseason poll released today.
Harvard receives 24 votes (voting points?) and is listed at would be #32.
Doubt a win in opener over MIT will launch Crimson into top 25, no matter how resounding. A 6-0 start prior to the Thanksgiving tournament in Orlando and a first round matchup with Texas A&M might be enough. Three participants in that tournament are ranked above the Crimson (Maryland, Marquette, Davidson). Chance to make some noise!
|
welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
|
10-22-19 12:18 PM - Post#288907
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
The Ivy League preseason media poll came out today: https://ivyleague.com/news/2019/10/22/mens- basketb...
1. Harvard (15 first place votes) - 134 points
2. Penn (2) - 117 points
3. Yale - 94 points
4. Princeton - 88 points
5. Brown - 62 points
6. Columbia - 51 points
T7. Cornell - 33 points
T7. Dartmouth - 33 points
|
welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
|
10-22-19 12:22 PM - Post#288908
In response to welcometothejungle
CBS's Matt Norlander also published his annual 1-353 rankings: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ne ws/...
Ivy ranks:
39. Harvard
98. Penn
142. Yale
158. Princeton
175. Brown
226. Columbia
246. Dartmouth
305. Cornell
|
rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3050
Reg: 10-20-14
|
10-23-19 11:16 AM - Post#288978
In response to welcometothejungle
The women's preseason media poll was released this morning.
https://ivyleague.com/news/2019/10/23/princ eton-pe...
1. Princeton (10) 125
1. Penn (7) 125
3. Harvard 95
4. Yale 90
5. Cornell 60
6. Columbia 47
6. Dartmouth 47
8. Brown 23
Princeton and Penn are clearly the top two teams. A mild surprise that the two teams are tied.
I think Columbia is better than its tied for 6th spot.
|
whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
|
10-23-19 10:24 PM - Post#288988
In response to rbg
uh what??
Penn over Princeton alone is hard for me to understand, but 125 points means four voters picked Princeton to finish third (or one fourth and two thirds, etc).
I guess voters are pricing in a huge loss from Banghart? I thought she was good tactically but that wasn't the biggest reason she won; she built a great program and got the most talent.
|
rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3050
Reg: 10-20-14
|
10-28-19 08:58 AM - Post#289161
In response to whitakk
High-Post Hoops has a preview of the Ivy women.
https://highposthoops.com/2019/10/28/2019-20-iv y-l...
1. Princeton
2. Penn
3. Yale
4. Cornell
5. Harvard
6. Columbia
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown
Ivy Madness
1. Princeton over 4. Cornell
3. Yale over 2. Penn
1. Princeton over 3. Yale
|
Albert08
Masters Student
Posts: 572
Reg: 08-21-10
|
10-28-19 09:33 AM - Post#289170
In response to rbg
In his national Mid-Major Poll, ESPN's Graham Hays puts the Tigers at #8.
https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basket ball/sto...
Along with the conventional wisdom, he thinks the Carla Berube hire was as good as any to replace Banghart.
|
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 806
Age: 52
Reg: 05-19-16
|
10-28-19 10:24 AM - Post#289177
In response to Albert08
FWIW, there is a very cursury overview of the Ivy men's teams on Mid-Major Madness Podcast. The coverage starts at the 42.28 minute mark.
Mid-Major Madness Podcast
| "...no excuses - only results!†|
|
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 806
Age: 52
Reg: 05-19-16
|
10-29-19 03:50 PM - Post#289233
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Another take on the Ivy
The top of the Ivy League seems interesting this year, especially with how good Harvard can be, but Penn and Princeton should be solid too. How good does Harvard have to be for the Ivy to have an outside shot at a two-bid league? — John D.
From Mr. Bennett:
I’m loving the Ancient 8 question. I wasn’t smart enough to go to an Ivy League school, though I do have some ivy in my yard. So I feel qualified to answer this.
The short version: It will be extremely difficult, if not utterly inconceivable, for the Ivy to earn an at-large bid. Sure, Belmont got an at-large last season from the Ohio Valley Conference, which was a much weaker overall league than the Ivy by both KenPom.com and NET numbers. But that was a rarity. Teams such as Lipscomb, UNC-Greensboro and Furman getting snubbed is more the status quo.
The Ivy would need to pull some upsets early, and opportunities are out there. Harvard could face Texas A&M, Maryland and USC in the Orlando Invitational. Yale plays at — gulp — North Carolina on Dec. 30. Penn will get some shots, going to Alabama, Providence and Villanova and possibly playing Arizona in the Wooden Legacy. Princeton, which beat Arizona State on the road last year, somehow got Arizona State to come to its gym this season. The Tigers also travel to Indiana.
One of these Ivy teams would have to build a top-40 NET profile and then get clipped in the conference tournament title game by another top-100 team. Then pray. Hard.
It would take a whole lot of ifs, including things breaking right elsewhere. Hey, I’m totally here for two Ivy teams making the tournament, because when have kids from those schools ever caught a break in life? Still, I certainly wouldn’t count on it.
| "...no excuses - only results!†|
|
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 806
Age: 52
Reg: 05-19-16
|
10-29-19 04:14 PM - Post#289238
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
I pulled out the ones that matter most to us in these forums. Feel free to check out the whole article. Ivy teams in the article:
Harvard
Penn
Yale
Columbia
AND!
Dartmouth
How about that, Dartmouth is must see T.V.
1 mid-major game to watch every day this season
Just go ahead and bookmark this
Best Mid-Major Games To Watch
By Russell Steinberg @Russ_Steinberg Oct 29, 2019, 5:05am PDT
If you’re anything like me, you’re starting to think about how you’re going to attack this college basketball season — mainly, what days you’re going to camp out on your couch and avoid human contact.
I’ll make your job a little easier (or harder, depending on how you look at it). Here’s one game for every day of the college basketball season that you’re going to want to watch. Games featuring schools from the traditional seven high-major conferences are excluded due to [gestures wildly at name of website].
TV info is listed. Some of them are local channels, so if you don’t get them, don’t yell at me. Other people do. Think about someone else for a change, okay?
All times are Eastern.
Nov. 5: Yale at Stony Brook, 7 p.m., SNY/ESPN+
Some might try to tell you the biggest games in New York on opening night are happening at Madison Square Garden. Don’t believe them. Yale and Stony Brook are both quality teams picked to finish just below the runaway favorites in their conferences. This would be a good resume booster for both that could help a lot come March. Jordan Bruner is the Bulldogs’ lone returning starter, but he’s a force. The rebounding and shot-blocking extraordinaire will anchor a strong front court for Yale. Geno Ford is in his first season with the Seawolves and Elijah Olyani is the guy to watch on his side.
Nov. 11: Florida Gulf Coast at Dartmouth, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Shoutout Dartmouth.
Nov. 14: Siena at Harvard, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Dec. 2: Columbia at Delaware, FLOSports, 7 p.m.
Dec. 6: Columbia at Bryant, NEC Front Row, 7 p.m.
NEC Front Row is the best small-conference digital network in Division I, complete with some A+ local ads.
Dec. 11: Yale at UMass, NESN, 7 p.m.
Dec. 30: Albany at Columbia, ESPN+, 7 p.m.
Jan. 31: Harvard at Penn, ESPNU, 5 p.m.
The two favorites in the Ivy League square off at the Palestra in the first of two meetings that could decide the regular season crown. Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns are finally back together (in theory... Aiken technically hasn’t been cleared yet) and they have the Crimson already receiving some Top 25 hype. The Quakers are no pushover, however, and are led by unanimous all-conference first-teamer AJ Brodeur. Brodeur scored in double figures 28 times last season and averaged 17.6 per game.
Feb. 7: Davidson at VCU, ESPN2, 7 p.m.
No disrespect to the Ivy League, but it feels like the A-10 is starting to take over Friday nights during conference season. Sure, you can watch Harvard vs. Yale on ESPNU if you want. Or you could watch two probable Top 25 teams battle it out on the deuce.
Feb. 28: Penn at Yale, 7 p.m., ESPN+
| "...no excuses - only results!†|
|
