UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1122
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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04-09-19 08:48 PM - Post#283485
To get a cut at this I looked at Penn’s All-Ivy players since 1993. I got a crude score buy counting POY as 4, other 1st team as 3, 2nd team as 2 and honorable mention as 1. I made no adjustments for the supposed toughness of the league, reasoning that each coach was competing against the programs of his time. The highest score came from the ‘94 team with 6 players qualifying generating 14 points. The second best score came from the ‘03 team with 12 points earned by 5 players. In contrast the four years of pure Jerome Allen talent produced a total of 4 points. In five of the championship years Penn earned 10 or more points. There was one 7-point ring, ‘02, and one 6-point ring, ‘18. This year was 4 points.
Using this crude method we see that Steve has raised the team to the cusp of contention but remains short of the talent that routinely wins championships. With AJ still on the roster and a prospect for POY, and the return of Ryan, a second-teamer as a soph, 2020 looks like a 7 or 8 points year not counting contribution from people who have yet to reach All-Ivy status. Given Harvard’s prospects and Yale if Oni comes back the program will need those prospective contributions to really contend. Still a bit better free throw shooting from this year’s team could have earned a shared championship. Penn is close enough to eak out a championship.
Still it is obvious from this analysis that Steve still has a way to go before proving that he can get the talent that enabled Fran to average 8 points per year over that wonderful 15-year run from 93 to 07. Brodeur certainly qualifies, but he is gone after next year with no obvious heir on board. One could sum up Steve’s recruiting to a single good year that produced AJ, Dev, and Betley. Next year will be a good test to see if anyone from the current collection of youth, Williams, Wang, Simmons, Bryce, of Eddie makes the jump to light speed. If not, we will have to wait for future recruiting classes. Let’ hope not. The development of Darnell, Devon, Caleb, and Max shows that Steve can improve on existing talent. AJ and Betley prove that his best frosh can contribute early.
The truth so far is that Steve is a competent talent scout and developer; he falls short of the great, but his current crop has the potential to makes us believers. We are back to the insight of Mike James. Once in a while the Ivies capture a can’t miss talent, Jerome Allen, U, Brodeur. But most of the good players are next level talents who turn out to have a knack for the college game, Michael Jordan, Begley, Langel, Ibby, Zollar, Betley and Dev. Six of Penn’s championships since 93 have had a can’t miss player and the other six got by with the diamonds in the rough. Next year Penn should have both. The following several years will depend on those flawed diamonds or a wonderous recruit who contribute right away.
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1156
Reg: 07-28-07
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04-10-19 02:41 PM - Post#283515
In response to UPIA1968
Thanks for your thorough analysis. One dynamic that has changed recruiting between the two eras is the far greater number of "one and done" and even "two and done" players. This results in the big schools having to constantly be in the process of recruiting new players, with the number of new players increasing between the Dunphy and Donahue eras. The more players needed by the big schools, the talent level of those available to Ivy schools declines.
I will note that I have no empirical data supporting this but offer it as a additional factoid which your analysis did not (and maybe could not) consider.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32868
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-10-19 02:46 PM - Post#283518
In response to SteveChop
" The more players needed by the big schools, the talent level of those available to Ivy schools declines."
Except that objectively, we have far better athletes now than we have, perhaps ever, but certainly since the 1970s. And we don't compete for the one and dones, anyway.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Steve compared to Fran
04-10-19 03:17 PM - Post#283523
In response to UPIA1968
I made no adjustments for the supposed toughness of the league, reasoning that each coach was competing against the programs of his time.
this seems outrageously dubious.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3781
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Steve compared to Fran
04-10-19 04:50 PM - Post#283529
In response to Jeff2sf
I made no adjustments for the supposed toughness of the league, reasoning that each coach was competing against the programs of his time.
this seems outrageously dubious.
Agreed. The league is unrecognizable vs. Fran's time. Everything about the recruiting environment has changed profoundly. It's impossible to say how Dunphy would recruit today.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1122
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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Re: Steve compared to Fran
04-10-19 09:46 PM - Post#283540
In response to Silver Maple
Of course recruiting has changed. But I looked only at the relative status of players in their own eras. All-Ivy players are the best players of their era whether they are Corky Calhoun in an up era or Lamar Plummer in a down year.
Also the '94 team had three NBA players. Was that a down era for Penn? I'd trade that group for Harvard or Yale's talent today in an instant. Or put differently. Put Begley on last year's Penn team and it would have won the league.
Oh and didn't that Cornell team from a down ear make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Seems like an objective measure of quality to me. Yale the up year champ this year lost in the first round.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-11-19 09:21 AM - Post#283550
In response to UPIA1968
when half the league isn't functionally trying and the 3rd and 4th place teams are worse than top 200, I don't know that all ivy means the same thing. In fact, I know that it doesn't.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3781
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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04-11-19 11:19 AM - Post#283559
In response to Jeff2sf
Half the league? I'd say that 75% of the league was making no effort at all prior to the arrival of Amaker at Harvard.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-11-19 11:34 AM - Post#283560
In response to Silver Maple
i defer to you on that. I was not completely sure and wanted to be conservative. But yes, 75% seems right.
I feel, upia, like you're asking me what's better: Crepes or the Eiffel Tower. Yes, both things are vaguely related in that they're both French, but they're two different things.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32868
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-11-19 11:45 AM - Post#283561
In response to Jeff2sf
I'm not really a crepe guy---I go for the Eiffel Tower.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21262
Reg: 12-02-04
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04-11-19 11:46 AM - Post#283562
In response to Jeff2sf
I feel, upia, like you're asking me what's better: Crepes or the Eiffel Tower.
Neither. It's blintzes. More specifically, the delicious cheese blintzes my grandmother taught me to make. Never the store bought variety.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3781
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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04-11-19 01:03 PM - Post#283573
In response to penn nation
I love all that stuff, but I don't eat it. I've gone keto, because I'm so trendy.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32868
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-11-19 01:06 PM - Post#283575
In response to Silver Maple
No kishka for you?
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3781
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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Steve compared to Fran
04-11-19 02:32 PM - Post#283576
In response to palestra38
Only for a very special treat.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-11-19 02:55 PM - Post#283577
In response to Silver Maple
you can't compare it to another food then it becomes a legitimate debate. Shoulda said you prefer Monet, or a Renault car. something.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3781
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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04-11-19 03:08 PM - Post#283578
In response to Jeff2sf
It's been said many times that Monet was the kishka of French impressionists.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3619
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-11-19 03:26 PM - Post#283579
In response to Silver Maple
This thread jumped the shark quickly which signals the true start of the offseason.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32868
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-11-19 03:32 PM - Post#283580
In response to Mike Porter
Is that a mako, a Great White, or a Whale Shark? Because they are very different, you know.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23476
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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 04-11-19 03:40 PM - Post#283582
In response to Mike Porter
So who do you think the starters will be?
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3619
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-11-19 03:54 PM - Post#283583
In response to palestra38
Gotta be great white because that is what The Fonz had to jump: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpraJYnbVtE
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