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Username Post: Harvard Basketball Culture/Expectations        (Topic#23031)
Naismith 
Sophomore
Posts: 149

Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
Re: Harvard Basketball Culture/Expectations
04-21-19 10:46 AM - Post#283844    
    In response to palestra38

Not necessarily a rationale for failing to win a national title. I doubt that Penn was the only team eating at McDonald's or Smokey Joe's in the 70's. It was the culture at that time for all kids, just as the new nutritional and conditioning
programs are prevalent across the board in 2019.

Edited by Naismith on 04-21-19 10:47 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Harvard Basketball Culture/Expectations
04-21-19 11:00 AM - Post#283846    
    In response to Naismith

That's precisely my point. If Penn had it while Magic and Bird did not, perhaps Penn would have had a chance. Everything being equal, it was a bad year to be a Cinderella. The year before, when Penn lost a squeaker to Duke, they could have won.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Harvard Basketball Culture/Expectations
04-21-19 08:55 PM - Post#283849    
    In response to mrjames

Home court certainly makes a difference in the odds. However, the odds are still just the odds. Penn and Yale didn’t win simply because they had home court, and Harvard didn’t lose simply because they were on the road. Both results could have occurred at a neutral site, and Harvard could have won either year. Obvious points, perhaps, but they make it a little unfair to just say that the reason Harvard didn’t get in was the lack of a neutral setting.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Harvard Basketball Culture/Expectations
04-22-19 08:01 AM - Post#283851    
    In response to SomeGuy

So, I view basketball games through the lens of win expectation. And three points to take a game from road to neutral around the center of the bell curve moves win probability a lot (12ish percentage points).

What I said was it was the “biggest factor,” not the “only factor.” It’s possible that a healthy Seth or healthy Bryce could have moved the line and thus the win exp nearly that much. But technically those were two separate factors (Bryce being injured one year and Seth another). It’s hard to think of one singular bigger factor in reducing win exp than pre-determined HCA...



 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Harvard Basketball Culture/Expectations
04-22-19 11:33 PM - Post#283870    
    In response to mrjames

Well, I’d say the biggest factor is the quality of the teams.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Harvard Basketball Culture/Expectations
04-23-19 07:48 AM - Post#283873    
    In response to SomeGuy

Let me try this one more time...

Harvard’s 2016 class has won the most Ivy games of any team over its three years despite all of the injuries and it’s clear of the field by four games. Given that, its NCAA Tournament expectation is somewhere in the neighborhood of one trip to the dance, and the singular factor impacting that expectation the most is twice playing road Ivy Tourney games.

Of course, if a team isn’t that talented, that’s going to have a larger impact on winning an Ivy Tourney than HCA (though ask Princeton *how* untalented the home team has to be to win a road game). But given that Harvard has won the most Ivy games over the past three years - by a comfortable margin - we’re within the realm where team quality is good enough that HCA is the biggest factor.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
04-23-19 09:40 AM - Post#283880    
    In response to mrjames

Mike,

It's the biggest factor, AMONG MANY FACTORS, as in 3 pts. That doesn't explain a 12 pt loss to Yale where Harvard had already shown they can win. Another way to say what you are claiming is: Harvard did not lose in the ILT this year solely because of HCA.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
04-23-19 11:36 AM - Post#283889    
    In response to PennFan10

We don't know the answer to that question.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
04-23-19 12:58 PM - Post#283891    
    In response to mrjames

So the biggest factor is HCA, it's just a very small part of the many factors that affect these outcomes. e.g. HCA is maybe a 5% factor and the next biggest is 3%, the next is 2.8%, etc, etc.

Seems like you are saying we don't know the answer at all and the biggest factor (which is a very small part of the answer and one of many factors involved) is the one we want to to focus on?

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
04-23-19 03:39 PM - Post#283902    
    In response to PennFan10

It's more than 5%.

Yale was 72% to win at Bart in 2019 and Penn was 69% in 2018. If you strip away HCA, those would fall by somewhere in the 12ish percentage point range (60% and 57%, respectively).

The percentage likelihood that Harvard loses both under the HCA scenario is 72% * 69% = 50%.

Under the no HCA scenario, the likelihood that Harvard loses both is 60% * 57% = 34%.

That's a sizeable swing in the odds of this class having made a tourney due to location alone. I'm not really sure why this is such a controversial statement.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
04-23-19 04:07 PM - Post#283903    
    In response to mrjames

Because you associate probability with cause. There was still a substantial chance of Harvard winning or losing despite HCA. But on the court, they lost.

Sort of like the 2016 election. Probability was that Clinton would win. Didn't happen--didn't make the polls or probabilities wrong.

To attribute the losses to HCA is inaccurate. They surely would have had a greater chance to win at home, but still would have had a sizable chance to lose.

Again, however, your thesis will all come up for validation this year, as Harvard's best team on paper will get the home game.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
04-23-19 08:40 PM - Post#283906    
    In response to palestra38

In fairness, both injuries and not having homecourt or playing at a neutral court have been detrimental to the Crimson during the past two years. Personally, I would put greater weight on not having Towns this year at Yale and not having Aiken at the Palestra versus homecourt. I also believe that the homecourt disadvantage was even greater in 2018 vs. 2019 as to results.

I do have empathy for the Crimson players and coaching staff regarding injuries as it has been somewhat brutal. I have no empathy for Amaker or the Harvard administration regarding the homecourt disadvantage as they signed up for IvyMadness and sometimes, you get what you ask for. As to fans who supported IvyMadness sometimes you also get what you wished for.



 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
04-27-19 12:44 AM - Post#283955    
    In response to mrjames

There isn’t anything controversial about saying that HCA impacts the odds. As P38 points out, the reason I found your original statement controversial is that it appeared to attribute causation to HCA.

 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
Re: Harvard Basketball Culture/Expectations
04-28-19 07:27 AM - Post#283960    
    In response to palestra38

The obvious and key difference is—not many kids are on campus as many scatter for internships etc so the work is individual weighted and part of a bigger grind for the ivies

at the power 5 you are expected to be around where they manage everything—nutrition, work outs individual and now team workouts which are less taboo.

Have always thought nutrition is a big disadvantage. Yale lacrosse appears to have been the exception but not sure how. Meal plan can ever compare to a training table.

 
OnlyCrimsonBlood 
Freshman
Posts: 20

Age: 57
Reg: 04-02-19
04-28-19 06:17 PM - Post#283968    
    In response to james

Dear Mr. James,

Interesting facts. I understand the P5 comparison. The assumption is though this also would apply across the board to the mid major level? For instance consistently good mid-major programs (or even ones that have one special run) have a more favorable basketball culture for player development.

I think your answer goes to the heart of my subject post. It helps give perspective and temper expectations. Based on the post above the most essential factors are missing to create that truly special season. You can see the lack of physical development in some players over a 4 year stretch.

Just like anything in life there is a direct correlation to level of success and commitment. This is no indictment on IVY teams/players. Harvard in particular.

It is what it is...

Thanks Mr. James!



 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
04-28-19 08:11 PM - Post#283970    
    In response to OnlyCrimsonBlood

BIG difference between posters “James” and “MrJames”....BIG difference.

 
OnlyCrimsonBlood 
Freshman
Posts: 20

Age: 57
Reg: 04-02-19
Harvard Basketball Culture/Expectations
04-28-19 09:21 PM - Post#283971    
    In response to PennFan10

Was looking for the edit feature after reading your post. May have timed out.

Edited by OnlyCrimsonBlood on 04-28-19 09:22 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
04-29-19 08:03 AM - Post#283975    
    In response to OnlyCrimsonBlood

ha. true. my last thought on this....these ivy kids pay an incredible price. strength and conditioning undoubtedly has come a long way in 20 yrs since i was in the grind, but for all levels.

this being said, its a question of relative development. 20 yrs ago i remember 4 of my teammates had wall st internships for 2 of 4 yrs. we all worked out religiously when we had time but....when i played with the georgetown guys in the kenner league there was a big difference. they played on the same summer league team (i was the add on) in a very competitive league in their home gym (with a lot of mid major add ons who were locals) and went to summer school. basketball was their full time job when not in class 1-2 hrs a day all summer.

anyway, from what i can gather, it is more stark today bc you can actually work out with your coaches in the offseason. so it matters if you arent on campus in the summer.

this all being said, the ivy kids do the same during the school year so we are only really talking about 3 mos a year.

so i think the key differentiating factor is nutrition. at the ivy league level the onus is on the individual. at the power 5, its not a choice but a mandate with all the requisite convenience and availability of a training table.

lastly guys like miye oni and others have serious personal trainers in the summer. of course that helps. but its expensive unless of course you are good enough to have a future profit sharing arrangement:) so not everyone has this access.



 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Harvard Basketball Culture/Expectations
04-29-19 08:10 AM - Post#283976    
    In response to james

Although IL teams had an improved non-conference record last year, they still have a long way to go. Harvard's performance in league vs. non-conference play is very differnt over the past 3 years. Is it probably a combination of many factors including physical strength development let alone other factors including academics.

It does not appear that IL teams have the "kill" factor as part of the culture when playing lesser non-conference opponents. Obvious advantage is that IL teams have 4 year players which should work to their advantage.

Still many challenges in getting to a regular two bid league.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3765

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
04-29-19 03:08 PM - Post#283988    
    In response to bradley

I doubt very much that Ivy programs would ever move to a training table model, for the same reason they don't have athletic dorms and athlete-only academic tracks. Ivies want athletes to be fully integrated into the student population.

 
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