Steve
Freshman
Posts: 69
Age: 65
Reg: 08-12-09
|
01-07-20 01:04 AM - Post#296175
In response to Bison137
Little close for comfort at the end there for my Colgate Raiders, but I'll take any win I can get.
On the plus side, it's a nice feeling knowing that 'Gate can get away with an off-night or two from their top scorers. Cummings was obviously the star today as Burns couldn't get much going from the field.
Of course Burns has more than done his part in the past and is electric at his best.
The defense is also much-improved from earlier efforts this year, namely their loss to Niagara. Only ranked 178th in adjusted D per KenPom, but getting better.
I am concerned about the depth -- Gate is running an 8-man rotation at this point but David Maynard doesn't play much -- as well as these random lulls where nothing seems to go right for Gate. It happened at the end of the Army game and nearly cost them.
An X-factor there on the depth is Keegan Records. He's Gate's most improved player from the opening NJIT game until now, in my opinion.
Encouraged by his development, and I feel more confident in his ability to spell Ivanauskas for a few minutes.
I think Colgate is the best team in the conference, and they're a lot of fun to watch. I'm very grateful for this team.
But I think it'd be overly optimistic for me to believe they're anything close to a shoo-in for 1st in the conference.
Edge on any other team one on one? Sure.
Colgate vs. the field? Flip a coin, I'd say.
I'm conditioned to be scared of Bucknell ever since I became a Gate fan in '06, so I'm never counting them out regardless of their preseason projections. My early guess is a PL title rubber match, but who knows?
|
jkrun80
Postdoc
Posts: 3305
Age: 65
Reg: 05-07-12
|
01-07-20 08:57 AM - Post#296178
In response to Bison137
Colgate didn't have an easy time with Army. They're not looking like a dominant team so far.
|
res
Masters Student
Posts: 839
Reg: 03-21-06
|
01-07-20 09:11 AM - Post#296179
In response to jkrun80
Maybe not "dominant", but the team to beat for sure. I'd give the "field" at this point an advantage for the tournament bid, but I think Steve's probably close on his regular season pick-em.
|
Bison89
Professor
Posts: 5370
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
|
01-07-20 11:16 AM - Post#296190
In response to res
Maybe not "dominant", but the team to beat for sure. I'd give the "field" at this point an advantage for the tournament bid, but I think Steve's probably close on his regular season pick-em.
I'd take Colgate over the field at this point. I think that the only thing that could stop them would be a serious issue such as injuries, academic probation, etc. Otherwise, Colgate has more talent than anybody in the PL this year.
Then again, if the Bison are hot from behind the arch in the PL Championship game, anything can happen!
| New season, new team, new dream . . . |
|
Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
|
01-07-20 01:09 PM - Post#296199
In response to Steve
Little close for comfort at the end there for my Colgate Raiders, but I'll take any win I can get.
On the plus side, it's a nice feeling knowing that 'Gate can get away with an off-night or two from their top scorers. Cummings was obviously the star today as Burns couldn't get much going from the field.
Of course Burns has more than done his part in the past and is electric at his best.
The defense is also much-improved from earlier efforts this year, namely their loss to Niagara. Only ranked 178th in adjusted D per KenPom, but getting better.
I am concerned about the depth -- Gate is running an 8-man rotation at this point but David Maynard doesn't play much -- as well as these random lulls where nothing seems to go right for Gate. It happened at the end of the Army game and nearly cost them.
An X-factor there on the depth is Keegan Records. He's Gate's most improved player from the opening NJIT game until now, in my opinion.
Encouraged by his development, and I feel more confident in his ability to spell Ivanauskas for a few minutes.
I think Colgate is the best team in the conference, and they're a lot of fun to watch. I'm very grateful for this team.
But I think it'd be overly optimistic for me to believe they're anything close to a shoo-in for 1st in the conference.
Edge on any other team one on one? Sure.
Colgate vs. the field? Flip a coin, I'd say.
I'm conditioned to be scared of Bucknell ever since I became a Gate fan in '06, so I'm never counting them out regardless of their preseason projections. My early guess is a PL title rubber match, but who knows?
Steve, welcome back. It would be great if we hear more from you. Barring injury, I don't see anyone challenging Colgate for the regular season title. One key injury could definitely change things, however, since as you say, there isn't much depth. Not a great showing last night, but any road win is a good one. Had Grayson, a 35% three-point shooter, done better than 1-9 from beyond the arc, we might have seen an upset.
Ivanauskas' long range shooting once again did not look good. A lot of the misses were way off the mark. He is now 15-64 (.234) on threes after hitting 42-97 (.433) last year. Any idea what's up with that? I think only Bruce Moore is keeping him from having the biggest 3-point drop in the league (or the country?).
One big question for you: Verbal Commits is showing Colgate has promised 16 scholarships for next year, i.e. three above the NCAA max. I think I can account for two of the three overages, but not sure about the third. Here is the list - based on eligibility remaining - with a few notes for those who don't follow Colgate.
The list has 17 players, because I have also included transfer Blake Henry, who VC views as a non-scholarship player:
SR (next year): Ferguson, D. Maynard, Burns, Ivanauskas, Blake Henry *, Oliver Lynch-Daniels #
JR: Nelly Cummings, T. Richardson, Zach Light
SO: Pearson Parker ##, Ryan Moffatt, Nick Evtimov **, Malcolm Bailey, Keegan Records
FR - A. Capitano, S. Thomson, J. Woodward
- - - - -
* Transfer from a California juco (viewed as non-scholarship)
# Transfer from Houston Baptist
** Transfer from Western Carolina
## Freshman from Exeter-Phillips
I think there are at least nine who are definitely on scholarship. My view on the questionable ones:
- David Maynard - Very likely scholarship; was regarded as one of the best HS player in Utah and got a very early offer from Colgate (in June just as he was finishing his junior year); led the state in scoring; Colgate held his offer open while he did his Mormon mission. The one wild card could be his advanced age and being married. Might he have accelerated his academics enough to graduate this May?
- Blake Henry - don't think he's on scholarship; was an OK juco player but nothing special. BUT Verbal Commits counts him as a walk-on, so this doesn't narrow the scholarship overage.
- Oliver Lynch-Daniels - I think he is scholarship; definitely was on scholarship at Houston Baptist and started for the majority of his soph year.
- Zach Light - I think he is NOT on scholarship. Had no offers out of HS and appears to have been a walk-on initially. VC changed his status this year to being a scholarship player, but I haven't seen anything to support that.
- Pearson Parker - I think he is NOT on scholarship. Committed very late in what was his post-grad year, and didn't have any other reported offers. Only ranked #95 in New England by NERR, a ranking that usually points to players who didn't get D1 scholarships.
- Ryan Moffatt - Widely reported that he had a scholarship offer from Colgate, as long as he agreed to prep for a year at the Hill School. This was reported by his coach and several articles, who said he had to prep because Colgate had no scholarships left for that season.
- Nick Evtimov - Definitely scholarship; Had multiple scholarship offers from good schools, went to W. Carolina on scholarship.
- Malcolm Bailey - very probably scholarship; was one of the better players in Canada and had offers from Kent, Niagara, and Binghamton. Committed late to Colgate, but my guess is that he was going to come to the U.S. for a post-grad year if he didn't get the offer he wanted.
- Keegan Records - probably scholarship; only had one offer (Binghamton) prior to a late Colgate offer, which makes it less certain. But both he and his coach said he had a scholarship offer and signed a NLI, and his coach in an interview talked about how much money his "scholarship" was worth.
- Three incoming freshmen (Thomson, Capitano, Woodward) - All definitely scholarship. All committed early, and all had good offers from other schools.
(I see that recently CU has stopped listing Bailey, Henry, and Parker on the Game Notes roster. I presume that means they are injured and not available, since all three are still on the main roster.)
So my guesses have eliminated two players (Light and Parker) from the Verbal Commits scholarship list. But that still leaves 14 - one over the limit. Possibly could be Lynch-Daniels or Records, although I doubt it. To me, the most likely scenario is that Ivanauskas is planning to go the graduate transfer route, a la Nate Sestina, for his final year. There is obviously some attraction in getting a free Master's degree, and I figure he should be on track to graduate. Most if not all of his Northwestern credits should have been accepted by Colgate, especially with him being a liberal arts major.
If you have a chance, tell me which of the above you agree and disagree with. Especially the Ivanauskas scenario.
|
Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
|
01-07-20 01:42 PM - Post#296201
In response to Bison137
https://twitter.com/PatriotLeagueTV/statu s/1214547...
|
Bison89
Professor
Posts: 5370
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
|
01-07-20 05:53 PM - Post#296210
In response to Bison137
| New season, new team, new dream . . . |
|
MrPhillie
Postdoc
Posts: 2757
Loc: NE PA
Reg: 07-14-08
|
01-07-20 07:11 PM - Post#296212
In response to Bison89
Yeah, really, injuries are only thing stopping Colgate winning the regular season PL title (tourney could still be open for debate.) Looking quickly at some stats, overall ‘Gate isn’t overly impressive shooting the ball, however.
|
bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
|
01-07-20 07:40 PM - Post#296216
In response to MrPhillie
In the “anything can happen category†I give you Holy Cross 2016 ( I think). Colgate is the class of the league this year, period. While Army gave it a “never say die†effort last night, the game was not as close as the score, ang ‘gate did not play their best except for a stretch in the second half when they put the game out of reach. The PL is ‘gate’s to lose imo.
|
Steve
Freshman
Posts: 69
Age: 65
Reg: 08-12-09
|
01-08-20 11:47 AM - Post#296239
In response to Bison137
Good to be back. This is the best/realistically only place to talk Gate hoops, believe it or not, and I have more reason to now.
I can't disagree with any of those scholarship calls, Bison137. I don't have any insider info, but the logic on all of them makes sense. Those would be my educated guesses.
As far as Rap goes, maybe that's the case, maybe not (I sure hope not but would understand it). That's a logical conclusion to your detective work though.
Also, Colgate students are required to have 32 credits to graduate. One class--one credit. Simple.
However, as I know from personal experience when I dropped Intro to Econ after getting a 38 on my first exam, one can take 3 classes in a semester and still be considered a FT student at Gate.
So, hypothetically, there's a route for students to not finish their 'Gate degree in four years.
One could theoretically redshirt, take 3 classes instead of 4 for a while and drag out their academic tenure until they exhaust NCAA eligibility (potentially, depends on timing).
Again, I have no idea what Rap's plans are. My insider info is long gone (to be honest I wouldn't share it here anyway, but I've been out of school for a decade now). Whatever he decides, I wholeheartedly support as he's been an excellent addition to the program.
Rap's been off from beyond the arc and I'm not sure why. Frankly most of the team has been off. You would think positive regression would kick in at some point.
They're getting the looks -- I don't think it's a Langel issue or schematic issue or what have you. The shots just...aren't falling.
But Rap's been better in some other ways, per my eye test.
I think he's done an admirable job being the de-facto starting 5 in replacement of Dana Batt. He's done better on the boards and defense than last year.
The same goes for the team generally after giving up 93 in OT to Niagara.
Bigger players can give Rap and Rayman (now the 4 as you probably know) problems on D (see: Army), but they more then hold their own.
Also, Rap needed to play an A-plus game versus Cincinnati to win that one (that game is a whole other discussion I missed out on, man where would I begin), and he did.
I believe Cincinnati's coach called him the best player on the floor. I'd tend to agree for that night at least. Biggest W in program history outside PL title games in a very long time.
Good luck to the Bison tonight.
|
Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
|
Around the Patriot League 2019-20
01-12-20 02:53 PM - Post#296568
In response to Steve
Current Pomeroy projections for the expected number of PL wins for each team:
Colgate 14.2
Boston 10.9
Lafayette 10.3
American 9.7
Bucknell 9.5
Navy 9.0
Lehigh 8.6
Loyola 8.2
Army 5.1
Holy Cross 4.5
One note on Loyola. At full strength, I think they are better than the projection. However they have been plagued by injury. In recent games they have been missing:
- Andrew Kostecka, who has been the league's top player this year; he has a sprained ankle.
- Cam Spencer, a freshman SG who was on his way to making the All-Rookie team.
- Santi Aldama, the 6-11 Spanish center who was projected to be the PL ROY. He had knee surgery a few months ago; may return by the start of February.
= Chuck Champion, senior SF who started the previous two years and also their first few games this year.
|
bisonmania
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Reg: 10-26-07
|
01-12-20 03:32 PM - Post#296569
In response to Bison137
137, any updates on Lehigh’s Karnik? I see Lynch is now back.
|
Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
|
01-12-20 04:06 PM - Post#296572
In response to bisonmania
All I know is that Karnik is in a boot and apparently injured his ankle two games ago. It doesn’t sound like he will be out for a long time, but I have no first-hand information. Lynch just returned from being academically ineligible.
|
JimK_LU72
Freshman
Posts: 41
Loc: Allentown
Reg: 02-03-18
|
01-13-20 10:54 AM - Post#296586
In response to Bison137
I've been digging to find out if Karnik has a break or just a bad sprain, but still not sure. He was moving pretty well around the bench Saturday night so I'm optimistic.
Fortunately the four freshman who see substantial minutes for us picked it up against American for a wire to wire win. We start two of them and will give you a preview of Lehigh's future Saturday night at Sojka.
Bought my seat for Saturday last night and there weren't many left in Section E. The Bison have a well deserved, long standing tradition of support in central Pa. Its a treat to visit and I hope we can give you a game. You never know with Frosh. Please hold the snow 'til Sunday.
|
bison75
Masters Student
Posts: 487
Reg: 01-26-06
|
Around the Patriot League 2019-20
01-13-20 08:39 PM - Post#296634
In response to Bucknellbisonfan21
Anyone besides me watching Loyola- Boston? Currently 30-8 Boston. Are they that good or is Loyola that bad?
Edited by bison75 on 01-13-20 08:40 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
|
Re: Around the Patriot League 2019-20
01-13-20 09:13 PM - Post#296636
In response to bison75
Anyone besides me watching Loyola- Boston? Currently 30-8 Boston. Are they that good or is Loyola that bad?
I think a combination. Boston U has been playing very well lately, and Max Mahoney is playing like a POY candidate. Although Kostecka is back tonight, he hasn't played up to his normal level. And Loyola is still missing a lot of players:
- Center Santi Aldama, potential ROY
- SG Cam Spencer, likely All-Rookie team
- PF Casmir Ochiaka, a solid big man who started the latter part of last season.
- SF Chuck Champion, who started the past two years.
|
MrPhillie
Postdoc
Posts: 2757
Loc: NE PA
Reg: 07-14-08
|
01-13-20 09:54 PM - Post#296638
In response to Bison137
I was hoping to watch Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Alabama State but alas, it is delayed. So I guess LSU-Clemson it is.
|
BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts: 5203
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
|
01-14-20 09:27 AM - Post#296646
In response to MrPhillie
In his pre-second half interview, BU (Boston University) coach Joe Jones said this year's squad is his favorite team in his 10 years there.
|
Bucknellbisonfan21
Masters Student
Posts: 548
Loc: Bloomsburg
Reg: 11-12-15
|
01-14-20 09:35 AM - Post#296647
In response to JimK_LU72
Please hold the snow 'til Sunday.
Seems like a handful of Bucknell/Lehigh games were played on snowy days recently. I wonder if there’s any chance this game gets moved up from 7:00. Right now it looks snow will be worse later in the day Saturday.
|
JimK_LU72
Freshman
Posts: 41
Loc: Allentown
Reg: 02-03-18
|
01-14-20 12:05 PM - Post#296656
In response to Bucknellbisonfan21
Could it get pushed to Sunday? That would be my choice.
|
