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Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



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Username Post: Breakout star        (Topic#23269)
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2328

Reg: 03-02-08
08-23-19 06:48 PM - Post#287179    

My prediction — Tai Bibbs. I see him as taking a giant leap and turning into an all Ivy talent.


 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2328

Reg: 03-02-08
08-23-19 06:51 PM - Post#287180    
    In response to Chet Forte

And my second prediction. Smith will be fully recovered, Tape will be the best big man in the league, Stefanini will be a POY candidate, and we will be a playoff team.


 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2349

Reg: 02-15-15
08-23-19 08:46 PM - Post#287181    
    In response to Chet Forte

Bold. Tape will have to pass 4 bigs who were all better than him last year and all return. If only that happens, the Lions will be a playoff team. If the other things happen, definitely a playoff team and not 4th place.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1653

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
08-24-19 12:52 AM - Post#287182    
    In response to PennFan10

Columbia can be a playoff team. Period.
Size & scoring.
Please just shorten the games vs Harvard.

 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2328

Reg: 03-02-08
08-24-19 10:35 AM - Post#287184    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Tape over the last half of the Ivy season was one of the two best pure centers in the IL. He and the kid from Princeton were both very good. Unusual combination of skills for a 6’10” athlete.


 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2328

Reg: 03-02-08
08-24-19 10:37 AM - Post#287185    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Tape over the last half of the Ivy season was one of the two best pure centers in the IL. He and the kid from Princeton were both very good. Unusual combination of skills for a 6’10” athlete.


 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2328

Reg: 03-02-08
08-24-19 10:38 AM - Post#287186    
    In response to Chet Forte

Love f those Harvard games. Looking forward to the two fastest PGs in the IL going head to head assuming Mike Smith is 100%


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1653

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Breakout star
08-24-19 11:43 AM - Post#287187    
    In response to Chet Forte

Prefer they be on Saturday, not Friday. Columbia lost the following night at Dartmouth as Stefanini was hampered. Harvard lost to Cornell at home. Bassey didn’t play and Juzang was limited.

Both were impactful losses as both squads paid the price for the Lavietes marathon.

Likely cost Harvard outright regular season title and cost Columbia playoff hopes. If Lions could have maintained Friday’s level of play they should have beaten Dartmouth. That’s why I’m bullish on the Lions this season to compete/make the tournament.

Oh, and if Aiken doesn’t hit that shot, Stefanini doesn’t get banged up in further OT’s, Columbia beats Dartmouth and makes the tournament. Don’t overlook the Lions this year!

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 08-24-19 11:59 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2349

Reg: 02-15-15
08-24-19 01:42 PM - Post#287191    
    In response to Chet Forte

  • Chet Forte Said:
Tape over the last half of the Ivy season was one of the two best pure centers in the IL. He and the kid from Princeton were both very good. Unusual combination of skills for a 6’10” athlete.



I don’t think you can count partial seasons. That’s not how statistics work as it doesn’t account for a whole bunch of variables. Counting the full round robin is a better picture.

The Bigs in IL play for ‘18-19:

AJ Brodeur 20.1 ppl, 9.3 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.6 blocks
Chris Knight 15.4 ppg, 5.7 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.1 blocks
R. Aririguzoh 13.3 ppg, 7.6 reb, 1.6 ast, 0.7 blocks
Patrick Tape 12.4 ppg, 6.5 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.9 blocks

You can argue Tape was 3rd or 4th best among this group. If you add Choh, who really isn’t a center but played the 5 for Brown much of the time, he would be 2nd or 3rd on this list. Lewis didn’t play as much in conference play and would be 5th in this group (10.1 ppg, 5.6 reb, 1.5 blocks)

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1765

Reg: 10-09-09
08-24-19 08:20 PM - Post#287193    
    In response to PennFan10

Full season stats are generally the best, except when someone comes on strongly as Tape did for his last six games, when he scored between 14 and 19 pts every game and ended up averaging 16.3 ppg. for the length of that run. If the issue is performance over the season, then you're right. If, on the hand, the issue is standing at the season's end as an indicator of what might happen in 2019-20, then Chet is.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2349

Reg: 02-15-15
08-25-19 01:49 AM - Post#287195    
    In response to cc66

No. That’s not how stats work. You can’t subjectively take subsets of numbers and consider them predictive. Especially when you are effectively reducing the sample size. More data is always better than less data.

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1765

Reg: 10-09-09
08-25-19 10:08 AM - Post#287198    
    In response to PennFan10

On the contrary, when the subset is 6 consecutive games at the end of the season that exhibit the same consist pattern, you can and should take them as predictive.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 22148

Reg: 11-21-04
08-26-19 09:39 AM - Post#287206    
    In response to cc66

While I like Tape, saying that statistics in meaningless playing out the string games are more imdicative than full season stats is ridiculous.


But it doesn't matter what we think--let's see how he does this season against some very strong upperclass opponents.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1653

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
08-26-19 11:07 AM - Post#287211    
    In response to palestra38

Looks like a key for Tape is staying out of foul trouble. He fouled out of 3 of the 5 prior games before managing better in those final 6 games - 4 of which were against the Ivy Tournament teams. His rebounding numbers dropped in those final 6 games. I noticed that Chris Lewis' was a lot less aggressive on rebounds last year, and I suspected that this intentionally a way to avoid picking up fouls. With more height and depth in 2019-20, Tape should benefit in that way as well.

Tape hit 66.7% of his shots on the year, and is a decent foul shooter. If he finds his groove and against some matchups he can be a very efficient weapon.

Can't defend the last second trey from 40 feet though!

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2349

Reg: 02-15-15
08-26-19 11:23 AM - Post#287213    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

The double pump, last second trey is what you meant to say.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1653

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
08-26-19 11:30 AM - Post#287214    
    In response to PennFan10

Agreed.

Actually, Bryce only fit beneath an elevated 6'9" center. Ironic luck.

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1765

Reg: 10-09-09
08-26-19 12:11 PM - Post#287216    
    In response to palestra38

Meaningless seems a bit much. At least some of the games were against teams seeking a position in the tournament, and in bifurcated season, it just happens that his six games were when he finished strong.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 22148

Reg: 11-21-04
08-26-19 12:54 PM - Post#287220    
    In response to cc66

I don't mean that the games were meaningless as much as his numbers don't reflect a game where his team is likely to be this year (I see CU as much stronger than last year) with Smith back and some young guys with a year of experience in them. Thus, I think the extrapolation is not likely to reflect a full season under much different circumstances. That's probably good for Columbia.

 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2328

Reg: 03-02-08
08-26-19 02:20 PM - Post#287223    
    In response to palestra38

I think Brodeur is certainly an excellent player, but I think of him as a 4 rather than a 5. I think of the other big men as 5s. So in drawing my comparison I did not have Brodeur in mind. As far as Tape as compared to the P and H big men, I would put Lewis third in that group. As far as pure athletic upside I would go with Tape.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 22148

Reg: 11-21-04
08-26-19 02:47 PM - Post#287224    
    In response to Chet Forte

Well, he plays center at Penn. I'll agree that Tape is bigger, but they play head to head.

 
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