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Username Post: Breakout star        (Topic#23269)
Columbia 37P6 
Postdoc
Posts: 2163

Reg: 02-14-06
08-26-19 09:45 PM - Post#287230    
    In response to palestra38

My expectation is that senior transfer Smoyer will make an immediate favorable impact on Columbia Basketball. We finally have some depth up front with Tape, Iweke, Brumant, Smoyer and the three freshman bigs. I'm excited by our prospects for a highly successful season.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
09-01-19 01:00 PM - Post#287334    
    In response to cc66

Yes, my unhelpful point on this is that either camp could be right. Plenty of guys are capable of having a run. There are slices of Chris Lewis’ career where he looked better than Tape’s late season run. At a different position, Nate Hickman is a guy who played like a lead guard for a while, but lacked the consistency and ability to adjust necessary to do it over the long haul. But other guys flip the switch at some point and it just stays on. We’ll find out which one Tape is.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
09-01-19 09:51 PM - Post#287346    
    In response to SomeGuy

Tape was not consistent over a full Ivy round robin. He played well down the stretch. He will have to prove it every game if he wants to be considered in the top tier. He can’t go 18-12 3 games and then foul out with 6 pts and 2 reb followed by 18-12 again.

 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2958

Reg: 03-02-08
09-02-19 07:48 AM - Post#287349    
    In response to PennFan10

Tape was foul prone until the second half of the Ivy season. Then he seemed to put it all together. What makes him so tantalizing is that he is 6’10” but unlike most big men moves like he is a SF. He is unusually athletic for a man is size and can run the court. So if he continues his upward trend he can be a very, very good player. To me, the other issue for him is being more consistent in finishing around the rim. PS on Brodeur; I had thought that Wang was playing the traditional 5 and Brodeur was playing the 4.


 
Stuart Suss 
PhD Student
Posts: 1439

Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
09-02-19 11:21 AM - Post#287360    
    In response to Chet Forte

Just to stir the pot on this discussion . . .

The individual efficiency statistics which I post each year have Patrick Tape ranked 4th in the league in conference-only games.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 3614
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
09-02-19 02:15 PM - Post#287369    
    In response to Stuart Suss

Stu - interesting that all of Top 5 players are bigs

 
Stuart Suss 
PhD Student
Posts: 1439

Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
09-02-19 02:39 PM - Post#287370    
    In response to Mike Porter

Mike, box score metrics place a high value on rebounds. So, rebounders (usually bigs) tend to rank higher than perimeter players. To be fair, players should be compared against others at their same position.

Box score metrics can only weigh factors for which a box score number exists. A player can do many good things on a basketball court for which no box score number exists. On the ball defense is merely one such example.

A deep, well-balanced team will share the wealth (points and rebounds). So co-champion Harvard had nobody ranked in the top 15, but 5 of the next 11 and 8 of the next 23.

These numbers don't prove that Patrick Tape was the 4th best player in league regular season games last year. They do refute the suggestion that he is undervalued.


 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
09-02-19 10:50 PM - Post#287384    
    In response to Chet Forte

Not sure what you saw with Wang that seemed 5 like. He’s more of a perimeter player than Brodeur. He’s also not as good an interior defender, although AJ generally would draw the tougher assignment between the two, whether that was the 5 or the 4.

I know you are super high on Tape. While he is athletic for his size, most Ivies have a guy of like size and athleticism (including Wang for Penn, who is athletic enough that he isn’t even a center).

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
09-03-19 12:29 PM - Post#287389    
    In response to SomeGuy

Max was the 5 and AJ the 4 last year when those two played. Max guarded Tape when he was in the game (21 and 27 min) against Columbia. AJ guarded him most other times. AJ played the 5 when he was the only big on the floor, otherwise he was a 4 (which I define for defensive purposes).

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
09-03-19 12:41 PM - Post#287391    
    In response to Stuart Suss

  • Stuart Suss Said:
Just to stir the pot on this discussion . . .

The individual efficiency statistics which I post each year have Patrick Tape ranked 4th in the league in conference-only games.



Stu, maybe you should run this analysis for just the last 6 games of the Ivy slate as it seems that's all that matters for the purposes of this discussion.

 
Stuart Suss 
PhD Student
Posts: 1439

Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
09-03-19 04:17 PM - Post#287400    
    In response to PennFan10

"Chet Forte" is invited to give me all of Patrick's numbers from the final 6 Ivy games. I will plug them into the spreadsheet and see if the results are significantly different from the full Ivy season numbers.



 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
09-03-19 04:50 PM - Post#287401    
    In response to Stuart Suss

If you go to Bart's site, you can filter down for any span of games and see metrics like Box +/-, Points Per Game Above Replacement (at that usage rate), etc.

http://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&am...

Patrick Tape did have a very strong end to the season - certainly if you look at just those six games, but also if you look at the last couple months. While I have my own thoughts on what "predictive" means in this context, what's more important here is that the quality of the bigs in this league is extremely high. Between Brodeur, Aririguzoh, Bruner, Atkinson, Lewis, Knight and Tape, that's seven bigs where the seventh on that list is still really, really good.

I think if I had to take two from that list, I'd probably take Brodeur and Knight, but I'd be happy with any combination of the seven.

 
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