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Username Post: Strength of Schedule        (Topic#23357)
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 805

Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
10-09-19 08:31 PM - Post#288418    

2019-20 Men's Basketball Schedule
Scheduled Games
DARTMOUTH KP:218
Projected to finish last by most forecasts. Late losses in Barry (injury) and Emory (unknown), Jackson (transfer). Lost two assistants to bigger programs. Finished last in the Ivy. The following noncon schedule is a nice mix off top of conference opponents and sub KP rated teams. We lack depth and the intangibles further depleted by the loss of players.

DATE:TIME:OPPONENT:18-19 KP RATING
Nov 8 (Fri) 7:00 PM at Buffalo KP: 22
Projected to be 3rd in the MAC. Lost in the 2nd rd of Tourney last year. New HC.

Nov 11 (Mon) 7:00 PM vs FGCU KP: 213
Projected 5th finish in the A-SUN. They return only 2 starters from last year after finishing 3rd not bad for a first year coach though. They play a lot like Enfield's Dunk City teams. This will be an interesting contrast to the Big Green's Ivy league style.

River Hawk Invitational Nov 15-17
Nov 15 (Fri) 4:30 PM vs Merrimack KP: NR
Freshly minted DI Merrimack enters the NEC at a projected 8th place finish. They were the Northeast 10 conference champion last year. They also return 5 top scorers.

Nov 16 (Sat) 1:30 PM vs Jacksonville KP: 247
Project 8th in the A-SUN the Dolphins return only 3 starters from last years campaign. They finished above 200 in KP in the past several years. They are 1 of the two opponents the Green will face out of the A-Sun.

Nov 17 (Sun) 3:30 PM at UMass Lowell KP: 258
Our secret scrimmage buddy from the past several years. We finally play a game that counts. The have an all conference player in Lutete and are projected to finish 5th in the America East. They return 4 starters and are coming off their best season in a while. They should be formidable as we play them in their tourney at their house.

Nov 19 (Tue) 7:00 PM vs Thomas College DIII
This is the first of the two Terriers teams the Big Green Play. They lost in their conference championship last year then the coach resigned in the summer to coach at Earlham after only on year. He was replaced by assistant coach Deshon Gaither. There shouldn't be too much slippage from the previous year. We should get a W here and they should get better for playing up.


Nov 30 (Sat) TBA at Bowling Green KP:105
Projected to win the MAC this year. #1 in the MAC. Lost in the conference tourney last year. That loss came from Buffalo, which was a national top 25 team at one point last season. They return 4 starters including all conference level player in Turner, Jr. They are projected to have one of the top backcourts in their league.

Dec 3 (Tue) 7:00 PM Georgia State KP: 124
Projected to be 6th in the Sun Belt. Lost in the first round of the Tourney last year. New coach this year.

Dec 6 (Fri) 8:00 PM at USF KP: 99
Projected to be 7th in the AAC. Won the CBI last year and return 9 players from last year. Has a projected all conference player on the team.

Dec 11 (Wed) 7:00 PM at Maine KP: 358
Has not been over 300 in KP for a while. 2nd year coach. Like Dartmouth lost a lot of close games.

Dec 14 (Sat) 1:00 PM at Boston Univ KP:231
Expected to finish in the top half of the Patriot. Has one of the better front courts. Has former Dartmouth assistant Quinn on their bench.

Dec 18 (Wed) 11:00 AM vs Central Conn KP:321
Finished at the bottom of the NEC, expected to finish last again. Returns 1 of their starters from last year. Hasn't finished above 300 in KP in a while.

Dec 21 (Sat) 12:00 PM vs Bryant KP:327
Finished 9th in NEC last year. Expected to finish in 6th this year. 2nd year Coach in Grasso. Retruns 3 starters

Dec 30 (Mon) 2:00 PM at New Hampshire KP: 345
Our Granite state rival finished 2nd to last in the America East and expected to finish last this year. Expected to return 3 starters from last years team. They will play Merrimack, Harvard, Northeastern, and Central Connecticut before they play Dartmouth.

Jan 2 (Thu) 7:00 PM vs Vermont KP:76
Perennial leader atop the American East. They've bested Dartmouth 12 of 14 times. They have an all conference player in Lamb who is projected to be conference player of the year.

Jan 18 (Sat) 2:00 PM at Harvard KP:114
We'll beat them once.

Jan 25 (Sat) 7:00 PM vs Harvard KP:114
If were really really lucky maybe twice. I refuse add any more platitudes.

Jan 31 (Fri) 7:00 PM at Princeton KP:175
Hasn't finished below 200 in KP in a while. They return only 1 of the starters from last year. Projected to be 4th in the Ivy despite the lone returning starter. That lone starter, Aririguzoh, is a projected all conference player. Have not finished below 200 in KP in a long time.

Feb 1 (Sat) 7:00 PM at Penn KP: 130
Expected to finish 2nd in the Ivy. They should have both a good front and backcourt. They return 2 starters. They have a man's schedule playing several top 100 teams in the noncon season.


Feb 7 (Fri) 7:00 PM at Brown KP:153
Coming off a strong season last year where they played in the CBI. The Bears are expected to finish just outside of the Ivy tourney qualifiers at 5th in the league. They return Cho who is a projected all tourney team member, as well as, 2 others from the CBI tourney squad. They should have one of the better front courts in the Ivy.

Feb 8 (Sat) 7:00 PM at Yale KP:77
Yale lost in the first round of the big dance last year. They also lost a player to the NBA. Despite only returning 1 starter the Bulldogs are expected to host and play in the Ivy tourney. With a winning coach and next man up returning bench, Yale is expected to finish 3rd in the Ivy.

Feb 14 (Fri) 7:00 PM vs Columbia KP:215
Columbia starts with the letter C. They return 2 starters the lose a lot of the intangibles, hence the C. They lost an all conference player in Stefanini to injury prior to the season. They are projected to finish ahead of the Big Green in most forecasts.

Feb 15 (Sat) 7:00 PM vs Cornell KP:221
Played in the CIT last year. They return 3 starters from that tourney team. Gone with his scoring, is Matt Morgan's who signed with the Raptors to play in summer league. They are projected to finish ahead of the Big Green in most forecasts. They are the team most like the Big Green with a lot of questions to answer in the depth category.

Feb 21 (Fri) 7:00 PM vs Penn KP:153
Feb 22 (Sat) 7:00 PM vs Princeton KP:175
Feb 28 (Fri) 7:00 PM at Cornell KP:221
Feb 29 (Sat) 7:00 PM at Columbia KP:215
Mar 6 (Fri) 7:00 PM vs Yale KP:77
Mar 7 (Sat) 7:00 PM vs Brown KP:153
"...no excuses - only results!”


Edited by GoBigGreenBasketball on 10-09-19 08:44 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Greenhorn 
Senior
Posts: 318

Reg: 11-24-04
10-10-19 11:59 AM - Post#288455    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball


I don't see a path to .500 here.

Early Optimistic Projection

4-10 in league
10-16 overall with wins over Bryant, UNH, Merrimack, CCSt, Maine, Thomas.

Don't see us taking a game from Harvard.



 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 805

Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
10-10-19 04:06 PM - Post#288467    
    In response to Greenhorn

Bart Torvik Has this for the Big Green, but I expect it to change significantly when the season starts and all the factors are in. You're not far off on your league projections.

Projected Record: 16-13 (6-8)

T-Page for Dartmouth
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 805

Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
10-20-19 02:55 AM - Post#288799    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Dartmouth opponent Bowling Green bests DePaul in their secret scrimmage.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 805

Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
10-21-19 01:37 AM - Post#288827    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

BEGINNING OF THE SEASON KENPOM PREDICTIONS

14-15 OVERALL & 6-8 LEAGUE

DATE/RANK/OPPONENT/ W/L /SCORE/WIN PROB/LOCATION
Nov 8 93 Buffalo L, 79-68 0.18 Away
Nov 11 250 FGCU W, 75-69 0.72 Home
Nov 15 285 Merrimack W, 75-70 0.69 Neutral
Nov 16 289 Jacksonville W, 76-71 0.7 Neutral
Nov 17 248 UMass Lowell L, 77-76 0.47 Away
Nov 19 NR Thomas W 1 Home
Nov 30 117 Bowling L, 80-71 0.22 Away
Dec 3 162 Georgia St. L, 76-71 0.32 Away
Dec 6 76 S. Florida L, 77-65 0.13 Away
Dec 12 336 Maine W, 72-66 0.7 Away
Dec 14 200 Boston Univ L, 75-72 0.38 Away
Dec 18 345 C.Conn W, 81-65 0.92 Home
Dec 21 325 Bryant W, 79-68 0.85 Home
Dec 30 323 N.H. W, 71-67 0.65 Away
Jan 2 78 Vermont L, 73-69 0.33 Home
Jan 18 75 Harvard L, 78-66 0.12 Away
Jan 25 75 Harvard L, 75-69 0.3 Home
Jan 31 180 Princeton L, 73-69 0.34 Away
Feb 1 112 Penn L, 76-68 0.21 Away
Feb 7 176 Brown L, 76-71 0.33 Away
Feb 8 146 Yale L, 78-72 0.29 Away
Feb 14 151 Columbia W, 75-73 0.54 Home
Feb 15 298 Cornell W, 78-69 0.8 Home
Feb 21 112 Penn L, 73-71 0.43 Home
Feb 22 180 Princeton W, 72-70 0.59 Home
Feb 28 298 Cornell W, 75-72 0.59 Away
Feb 29 151 Columbia L, 77-71 0.3 Away
Mar 6 146 Yale W, 75-74 0.53 Home
Mar 7 176 Brown W, 75-73 0.58 Home





"...no excuses - only results!”


 
Greenhorn 
Senior
Posts: 318

Reg: 11-24-04
10-22-19 11:01 AM - Post#288900    
    In response to Greenhorn

Looks like 29, not 26 games.

I'll add a W against FGCU and update the projection to 11-18, 4-10 in league.

KenPom has us beating Yale & Princeton at home to finish 6-8 in league. That still seems unlikely.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 805

Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
10-22-19 03:33 PM - Post#288927    
    In response to Greenhorn

The Ivy League official poll has us last in the league tied with Cornell with 33 votes. Hard to get excited again seeing us at the bottom of the rankings going in. I wonder what we'd look like with Barry in the lineup and not having lost Jackson to NAU, and Emery.

With a lack of media and information coming out of the Woods your left to assume the worst. Very little preseason hype. No results from the Green and White scrimmage. No leaks from the secret scrimmage. Nothing from the head coach, no media interviews, no podcast appearances.

If the trend of the past three seasons continues we're in for 1 win in league.

CBS poll has us ahead of Cornell so maybe we won't be dead last. We'll we still have to play the games. It will be interesting to find out what adjustments we're going to make in the absence of Barry.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 805

Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
10-30-19 01:40 AM - Post#289260    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

If you're good at Where's Waldo then this strength of schedule graphic is for you.(see link below). I found Dartmouth, Brown, and Columbia. Dartmouth average KenPom opponent is approximately 225 while Dartmouth is ranked 196. With the exception of Cornell all our lesser ranked opponents are non conference matches.

I've never been a proponent of playing weaker competition. I can see where getting a couple Ws under your belt may boost confidence and pad the record a but, if you believe in the axiom iron sharpens iron, then these non conference games won't prepare us for Harvard. Harvard is under 100 in KenPom preseason, 75 to be precise. We kinda got iron sharpening alloy.

Strength of schedule visual chart





"...no excuses - only results!”


 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 805

Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
10-30-19 08:56 AM - Post#289269    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

At least we're not Fordham. SMH
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
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