mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-05-19 09:43 AM - Post#289727
So, now Vegas has opined on some of our teams. If we take some popular assessments of opponents as given (a questionable assumption, but stay with me), what range of national ranking does that implicitly put our teams in?
Penn (+7.5) at Alabama
Alabama is No. 35 at Bart's site, so Penn would be in the 70 range based on Alabama's ranking. Alabama is No. 70 at KenPom and the line is seen as roughly fair there, so Penn would be maybe a nudge better than 112. So, it's fair to say Vegas sees Penn in the 70-110 range.
Princeton (+5.5) at Duquesne
KenPom has Duquesne at 110, so that line would have Princeton in the 130s. Bart has Duquesne at 100, so that line would have Princeton in the high 110s/120 range.
Yale (-2) at Stony Brook
Bart has Stony Brook at 212. That line, which has since been bid down to -1, would have Yale in the 120s (the -1 would have them in the high 130s). Stony Brook is 229 at KenPom and -2 would have Yale in the 130s (-1 would be right on where Yale is at currently at 146).
Binghamton (+7) at Cornell
Bart has Binghamton as one of the worst Div I teams (350). *Only* being favored by 7 at home has Cornell in the 320/330 range. KenPom is a little higher on Binghamton (324) and thus the -7 line at home would put Cornell slightly ahead of where they are in KenPom (in the 280, low 290s range).
Brown (-6) at Bryant
KenPom has Bryant similar to Binghamton at 325. Being favored by 6 on the road puts Brown right where they currently are in KenPom (177). Bart has Bryant at 298 and being favored by 6 on the road would imply Brown is somewhere in the 150s.
Columbia (-2) at Lafayette
KenPom has Lafayette at 248, and the line at exactly -2, implying that Columbia is right at its 151 ranking. Bart has Lafayette at 221 and +2 at home would imply the 130s.
Here's the summary of what the Vegas lines imply in terms of national rank:
Penn - 70-110
Princeton - 110-130
Yale - 120-150
Columbia - 130-150s
Brown - 150-180
Cornell - 280-330
All I can say is... the tint of rose color in those glasses is STRONG.
We won't find out what Vegas thinks of Harvard and Dartmouth until the Friday lines are posted.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8248
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-05-19 10:08 AM - Post#289732
In response to mrjames
Nice analysis here. Few things are as unreliable as the lines at this time of year, but Princeton looks like a nice take.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-07-19 07:26 PM - Post#290279
In response to Streamers
Final two lines/teams to analyze for tomorrow:
Harvard (-1.5) at Northeastern
KenPom and Bart vary a little bit on the Huskies with KenPom in the 130s and Bart in the 140s. The answer is about the same though. The -1.5 line would imply a rating of Harvard in the 70s or 80s (in line with KenPom’s preseason rating but way under Bart’s, which would have implied a -6.5 line). Some of this might be due to uncertainty around Aiken. The betting public clearly feels that way, as they’ve already bid this down to a PK. The odd lineups, long bench and unacceptable litany of turnovers vs MIT might normally be written off as a D3 oppt thing, but given that Harvard has struggled with those exact things in the past... it gives one pause, for sure.
Dartmouth (+11) at Buffalo
KenPom has Buffalo just inside the Top 100, so an 11-point line would put Dartmouth right around the 200 mark. Bart thinks that’s nuts placing Buffalo in the 175 range, for which an 11-point line would put Dartmouth near the 300 mark. I’m a Dartmouth skeptic for now, but certainly not in the Bottom 100. So, if KenPom is right about Buffalo, this line probably overrates Dartmouth a little. If Bart is right about Buffalo, this line might underrate Dartmouth by 50-100 spots.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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11-08-19 01:25 PM - Post#290306
In response to mrjames
Thank you for these write-ups. They are appreciated.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-13-19 07:00 PM - Post#290853
In response to Quakers03
Another fun way to look at things... here are the national ranks of each Ivy team thus far for just the performance this season and no preseason weighting (now, this is *why* you have preseason rankings, because they stabilize things early and convey valuable info):
123. Dartmouth
134. Yale
161. Columbia
178. Penn
188. Harvard
193. Brown
219. Princeton
236. Cornell
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