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Username Post: Siena        (Topic#23520)
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-14-19 02:30 PM - Post#290993    

No idea what to expect tonight vs Siena.

On the Harvard side, unlikely we'll see Bryce or Seth and possibly even Christian. Henry and Kale haven't suited up yet either.

Siena has played well, beating American and St. Bonaventure easily but losing to #19 Xavier. Siena runs off of NBA prospect/top 50 sophomore Jalen Pickett. However, vs the Bonnies, 3 Siena players each scored 19 points with a fourth scoring 15. I attended last year's matchup at Siena. Pickett drove us crazy. He seems to hold/dribble the ball on every possession. He is a deft and selfless passer with the ability to score if nothing else develops. Very unusual offense that requires a great defender on Pickett and patience.

The Crimson lost a close one last year at Albany without Lewis, Aiken and Towns. Harvard is favored by 11.5 to 12.5 points tonight and is roughly 100 spots ahead of Siena in KenPom and Sagarin, but if 3 potential starters are out I find that line to be a stretch. This game and Saturday vs Buffalo in Toronto will be tough to play shorthanded. Silver lining is that guys like Haskett, Djruicic, Ledlum and Sakota are seeing quality minutes. Don't overlook fact that Haskett is 7-10 on 3's. If you recall, he hit two bombs in the closing seconds in the second round of the NIT to bring the Crimson within a point of NC State. Baker is starting and seeing substantial minutes and Forbes is getting some run as well. Good for the long run I guess, but not what we had hoped for.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Siena
11-14-19 03:27 PM - Post#291000    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

So, from a line perspective, Vegas lines are pretty much mirroring KenPom at this point - at least for the bulk of games not involving big names.

Which is interesting because KenPom's Harvard rating implicitly includes both Bryce and Seth, but happened to be an underestimation of Harvard if it had those two players (due to the heavy pull of the team and league recent history in his model).

Without Bryce and Seth, the underestimation becomes an overestimation, but will return to an underestimation when they come back. In the meantime, Vegas seems content to take the KenPom line that is essentially middling those two's absence (without explicitly intending to do so).

It's very odd. At this point, given Harvard's specific offensive struggles (a playmaker to run the offense through), Bryce is probably worth 5-6 points to the line. Thus, probably the right line without him is in the -9 range and the right line with him is in the -15 range.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-14-19 03:47 PM - Post#291002    
    In response to mrjames

Thanks Mike. I guess the line becomes tighter if Christian doesn’t play, but probably not by much.

Last game was interesting. I believe line was Harvard by 21.5. Didn’t look like Harvard would come close to covering until Crimson closed it out on a 19-4 run. Tommy O’Neill entered in the final minute and hit his first college basket - a trey -to put Harvard up by 22, 68-46. At least that’s how ESPN’s play by play still reports it. Actually, the officials went to the monitor with a few seconds remaining and ruled that O’Neill’s foot was on the line. Harvard won by 21 and didn’t cover.

While we’re on discrepancy’s, did NE’s Jordan Roland score 42 or 44? App’s read 44 during the game but I’m now reading 42.

 
mrjames 
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-14-19 03:51 PM - Post#291003    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Looks like the line did fall today to -9.5, so the market does look to be expecting him not to play. If he does, that line's gonna shoot up before tip.

I was surprised that there was so much confusion around O'Neil's shot. His foot was clearly inside the line and the ref put the hand down to his side to indicate a 2-pt attempt. Bizarre that it was ever counted as a three.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-14-19 04:14 PM - Post#291007    
    In response to mrjames

Ref obviously took Harvard and gave the points!

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-14-19 05:33 PM - Post#291015    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Oh, and would have been a three just months ago.

 
84grad 
Junior
Posts: 277

Age: 64
Reg: 11-09-17
11-14-19 07:28 PM - Post#291037    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Per Jeff Goodman

So, Harvard will be without its top three players tonight against Siena: Seth Towns (knee) out indefinitely, Bryce Aiken (calf) day to day and Noah Kirkwood (illness) also day to day. Good news is Henry Welsh expected to return.

 
84grad 
Junior
Posts: 277

Age: 64
Reg: 11-09-17
11-14-19 07:36 PM - Post#291039    
    In response to 84grad

Ugh. Take the points. Better yet - the money line.

Juzang also back.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-14-19 09:01 PM - Post#291046    
    In response to 84grad

Okay Mike, you were prescient. No Kirkwood and Harvard down 15-7. Ledlum enters and hits three consecutive treys. Harvard up 37-30 at the half behind Ledlum's 14 points

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
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11-14-19 10:04 PM - Post#291048    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Defense won tonight's game by smothering Pickett, holding him to 4 points.

Without Kirkwood, Harvard offense bailed out in the first half by Ledlum (14pts) and Haskett (9 pts). With those players scoreless in the second half, Crimson held to 22 points but defense holds on for 59-56 victory. No offense at all.

Big Siena bodies neutralized Chris Lewis (2pts, 11rbs, 3blocks).

Juzang had a rough outing. Missed all 6 shots and in foul trouble throughout.

Ugly win?

 
Naismith 
Sophomore
Posts: 149

Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
11-14-19 10:15 PM - Post#291049    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Upside: 3 FY kids score 23 points, which should raise some eyebrows around the league. The correct spelling on 2nd straight Cambridge ROY is L-e-d-l-u-m.

Downside: 20 turnovers

Par for the course: 3 best players in coats and ties.

Bottom line: still nice win over pretty good team.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-14-19 10:57 PM - Post#291051    
    In response to Naismith

If Ledlum and Haskett don't hit 3's while Siena's best player is out in first half with 2 fouls then Harvard was toast. Pickett sat 7 minutes in for the entire half and 15-7 deficit became a 37-28 lead. Ledlum scored 14 first half points and freshmen and Haskett came up big.

Siena shut down Harvard open 3's in the second half turning this into a defensive struggle. Had Siena not made only 4-22 three's or Pickett gotten going this wouldn't have ended well.

Attribute the win to Lavietes.



 
mrjames 
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-15-19 09:06 AM - Post#291072    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

There are definitely a lot of positives in all of this - they're just not the type of positives that you want in a year where everything is about *this* year.

Haskett is getting closer and closer to being a positive piece. Clearly he can shoot it. If he can completely get into 3-and-D mode and avoid the, often crazy, attempts from inside the arc and the turnovers, he has some real value moving forward.

I wouldn't have imagined Ledlum getting a 40% usage night during this freshman year, but here we are. And he pretty much carried them after they got punched in the face early.

At this point, Harvard's five seniors have a combined usage-adj, PPG above replacement of 3.4. That's 0.3 lower than Noah Kirkwood's alone. The top six in that stat right now for Harvard are a freshman, a sophomore, two juniors and two seniors.

If Harvard can get to Orlando at 5-1 and get Bryce back, it'll still have that same opportunity that everyone expected to make meaningful noise in that tournament. It just either has to get Bryce back (possible) or find another way to manufacture enough offense to beat a decent Buffalo team AND a Holy Cross team that invariably gives Harvard fits. Luckily the schedule has cooperated. Aside from NU, the upside games are Thanksgiving to early January.

 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
11-15-19 09:45 AM - Post#291076    
    In response to mrjames

It's really disappointing that Seth Towns is still not on the court 20 months after his injury.

Do people have any knowledge of a college or pro player that took this long to come back from a knee injury and what the actual injury was?

Gordon Hayward, Paul George and Kevin Ware are three players who come to my mind with bad injuries, but all returned earlier than 20 months.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-15-19 11:32 AM - Post#291088    
    In response to rbg

Seth seemed ready to join the team last March.

Seems to me that Siena is a stronger team than being given credit for. They have four legitimate double digit scorers (3 averaging over 15ppg) and big bodies underneath, plus one of the best pro prospects in the country.

Siena plays at Yale next Wednesday. Very interested to see how that turns out.

 
Naismith 
Sophomore
Posts: 149

Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
11-15-19 09:02 PM - Post#291164    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Seth has been Day-to-Day, Week-to-Week and now the unsettling progression may be Year-to-Year or never, even a couple years at another college program.

That unfortunate slip and grotesque knee injury in the Palestra has cost Harvard two trips to the dance and the third one is up in the air.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-15-19 09:35 PM - Post#291168    
    In response to Naismith

Feel really badly for Seth. He’s a real competitor. Hopefully we’ll get him back.

 
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