Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-26-19 10:44 AM - Post#292363
In response to 10Q
I'm more optimistic that Coach can teach perimeter defense than he can teach Simmons to become an effective backup.
With you there. I hate to say this, but I think it's time to come to terms with the likelihood that Simmons is never going to be an effective D1 player. For whatever reason, despite being so highly rated as a recruit, he just hasn't been able to make the transition from HS to college ball. We also probably need to accept the fact that Mike Wang is never going to be consistently healthy, and that Mark Jackson is going to remain the tallest bench warmer Penn has ever had.
That being the case, until Max L-L is ready to contribute, I wonder if we're going to see Donahue experiment occasionally with a no-center lineup. That's hardly an unusual approach these days in college ball.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-26-19 10:45 AM - Post#292364
In response to 10Q
But few teams we will play in the Ivies can capitalize inside like the teams we are playing now. Against them, the perimeter defense is a far greater issue. If Donahue can teach them how not to play against teams like Lafayette, we will have a good year.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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11-26-19 11:33 AM - Post#292373
In response to Streamers
Good point. I think the problem is that without AJ on the floor, we lack the high post facilitator that makes the offense run. Simmons isn't the playmaker AJ is; while he can hit the three point shot from the top of the arc, he isn't the passer who can patiently survey the floor and then find cutters going to the basket. Defenses recognize that and play him accordingly.
This was something Max R. did so well when AJ was not on the floor.
Simmons, for whatever reason, does not seem to have the ability and his fear of fouling limits him on the defensive end, but he is not terrible there. We have seen him defend well at times.
Rothschild's ability to make plays for his teammates also freed AJ to be more of a finisher offensively, when they played together. One of the things that really worried me coming into this season was the loss of size along the front line. Wang's injury issues and Simmons' ineffectiveness are going to be problems at some point. There will no doubt be games where the coaching staff is going to be walking a fine line trying to manage AJ in foul trouble down the stretch.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-26-19 11:46 AM - Post#292375
In response to weinhauers_ghost
at his absolute zenith, max Rothschild was a 100 ORAT player. for three out of four years he was a 92 ORAT player who clogged all our spacing while making "hustle" (aka what gets ascribed to white people) plays.
He had certain things to recommend on defense. But let's not have the haze of time past corrupt our memories.
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QHoops
Senior
Posts: 368
Reg: 12-16-04
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11-26-19 11:48 AM - Post#292376
In response to weinhauers_ghost
I agree wholeheartedly.
At Providence I only noticed one play where AJ backed off to avoid the 5th foul. (other than the very end).
He plays such fundamentally sound defense he is hard to exploit this way, but I think that when he picks up his 4rth foul with 12 minutes to go the outcome will usually not be as favorable as it was on Sat.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-26-19 11:54 AM - Post#292377
In response to QHoops
Well, Mike Jensen agrees with me---the issue is perimeter defense. Good article featuring Penn:
https://www.inquirer.com/college-sports/villan ova-...
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-26-19 12:01 PM - Post#292378
In response to palestra38
Let's call them Issue 1a and Issue 1b.
Maybe Dr. Suess has written a book that can help.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
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11-26-19 12:54 PM - Post#292380
In response to palestra38
This is probably why Monroe is getting some PT. Whether or not he is ready, he adds a more physical defensive option on the perimeter and wings.
If substitute big man is our major weakness, we're in really good shape. I think our major weakness is defense on the perimeter, without Antonio. Goodman is great with his hands---not so great with the body. Dingle is just learning. Betley is pretty immobile. Eddie and AJ are just fine. It's really up to the freshmen to provide help since I am dubious Wang will help this year, Jelani is lost and when you have to go to Ray Jerome, you are going to a notably lesser player. The freshmen will have to step up and develop into non-freshmen in composure by the Ivy season.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-26-19 06:12 PM - Post#292430
In response to Jeff2sf
at his absolute zenith, max Rothschild was a 100 ORAT player. for three out of four years he was a 92 ORAT player who clogged all our spacing while making "hustle" (aka what gets ascribed to white people) plays.
He had certain things to recommend on defense. But let's not have the haze of time past corrupt our memories.
ORATs do not describe his excellent passing ability. The offense ran well through him when he was in the high post.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-26-19 06:43 PM - Post#292431
In response to Streamers
What will be interesting is to see if Mike Wang can do that to give AJ some time to rest (hopefully he is healthy enough to play sooner than later) because he is a very good passer himself.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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11-26-19 08:55 PM - Post#292447
In response to Mike Porter
What will be interesting is to see if Mike Wang can do that to give AJ some time to rest (hopefully he is healthy enough to play sooner than later) because he is a very good passer himself.
Wang also distorts the way a defense has to play simply because of his range. If he's hitting from long distance, we can balance the floor effectively with him and Betley. That opens up the middle of the floor and the post for AJ to go to work.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-26-19 10:16 PM - Post#292463
In response to weinhauers_ghost
I am not optimistic at all that we will ever see him play again.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-26-19 11:35 PM - Post#292471
In response to palestra38
Do you know something I don’t know?
I’m going to go with positive vibes on my end and hope that we actually see him back on the court this season. Last we heard was week to week with no definitive time table. That’s not great, but it’s not forever either. So I’ll balance out with positivity, haha.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1120
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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Re: ORAT
11-27-19 12:35 AM - Post#292474
In response to Streamers
I am pretty sure that KenPom's ratings reflect assists and turnovers. So a good passer will get some credit.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: ORAT
11-27-19 09:08 AM - Post#292487
In response to UPIA1968
I am pretty sure that KenPom's ratings reflect assists and turnovers. So a good passer will get some credit.
I’m sure Mike James can clarify how assists impact ORAT; but a minority of effective passes are counted as assists. This is another case of trust your eyes, not the stats.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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11-27-19 10:00 AM - Post#292493
In response to Streamers
If our biggest problem this year is being unable to replace Max Rothschild's minutes then we're in a heap of trouble.
Let's say you buy into the idea that advanced metrics underrate Rothschild's contributions. Where would you have ranked his level of importance to last year's team? He was 4th at best behind AJ, Antonio and Dev. You can make a strong argument that Jake was more important by the end of the year.
I'm doing this ranking based on my memory, I haven't even looked at the numbers.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-27-19 10:12 AM - Post#292494
In response to TheLine
I look at that to the contrary of your view--if our worst problem is replacing Max's minutes, then we have solidified the perimeter defense and are hitting our 3s, both of which are far more of a problem with probably the best center we ever had in the middle.
We'll get something down to replace Max's minutes as substitute for AJ. And I agree with Jeff and disagree with Streamers that Max was more often in the way on offense with AJ in the game than helping because of his passing skills. He had no outside game and therefore either clogged the middle or stood at the top of the key with his man double teaming someone else. He had his moments but really was only effective playing low post as substitute center.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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11-27-19 10:53 AM - Post#292498
In response to palestra38
I'm going to make a statement contrary to both of you guys. I am not a proponent of playing small consistently, and the point I would make is that when facing lineups with two or more frontline players 6'8" or taller, Rothschild would generally guard the more physical post player. That spared AJ the physical pounding and frequently allowed him to avoid foul trouble.
If we can't find a complement among our bigs who can give us minutes either alongside or in relief of AJ this year, we're going to have some problems. Yale goes big with Atkinson and Bruner. Harvard can go big with Lewis, Baker, Catchings, Djuricic and whoever else Amaker decides to throw out there. Princeton is bookending Aririguzoh with Evbuomwan, who's 6'7" but plays bigger. You want to guard those guys with a combination of Scott and Monroe? I say that gives up too much on the boards.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-27-19 10:59 AM - Post#292499
In response to palestra38
Clearly, the challenge here is to find a way for the team to remain at least reasonably effective on both offense and defense when AJ is on the bench. I think this is a huge deal, because it creates a major weakness that any halfway-competent opposing coach will know how to exploit. Solving it will be key to a successful season. Some possible solutions:
- Jarrod Simmons. 2+ years into his college career he has yet to show himself to be a consistently effective D1 forward. I'm maybe five games away from concluding that he's never going to get there.
- Mike Wang. He's got a D1 game, and has been consistently effective when he's played. Unfortunately, I don't think he's ever going to be consistently healthy.
- Mark Jackson. Fun to think about because he's 12 feet tall, but I find it hard to imagine that a guy that big would have ended up at an Ivy if he were any good. I'd love to be wrong about him.
- Max Lorca Lloyd. There's clearly potential there, but my guess is that he's not going to be seeing a lot of minutes this season. There seem to be a lot skills he needs to learn, and he also probably needs to bulk up.
- A no-big man lineup. This is not uncommon in college ball these days, and the team has a number of pretty versatile 6-6-ish guys. While it can create a weakness on defense, the corresponding offensive advantages might balance that out.
Am I forgetting something? If there's another option here, I hope somebody will point it out. Assuming I've covered everything, and being that options 1-4 all seem unlikely to pan out, I hope the coaches are working on #5.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-27-19 11:08 AM - Post#292502
In response to Silver Maple
I think AJ will play 30-35 minutes and Simmons the rest. Against most teams we play, Simmons will be fine. But we have to work Lorca-Lloyd in, for next year, if not earlier. But the athleticism we have in Dingle, Scott and Goodman will be fine most of the time to hang in there on the boards. Our guard play is our weakness so far, not rebounding. We are at historic lows (I know it's early) in assists and steals---after taking a dive last year with the graduation of Foreman, now another deep dive after Antonio finished up. We need a PG far more than a Rothschild replacement.
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