bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
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02-08-06 02:42 PM - Post#14930
we are a 9 point underdog, with a 20% chance of winning the UNI game.(Click "Schedule" in the left border of this page) I guess this is because in the Pomeroy rankings (not the rpi), he has UNI ranked 11th, while we have slipped, despite continuing to win, all the way down to 51st. In other words, Pomeroy does not give us much of a chance.
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Panthers Win!!
newbie
Posts: 47
Reg: 01-30-06
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Re: According to Pomeroy...
02-08-06 03:06 PM - Post#14931
In response to bison63
That's what these Bracket Busters are for though. I'm curious how often Pomeroy's predictions are accurate. One thing that the objective ratings don't consider is how teams are playing at various times and how a particular team matches up with another. As well, a top team in a league like the Patriot League is "penalized" for playing teams in it's league that have a poor strength of schedule or just a number of bad losses. The Bison don't have a choice but to play Army, Navy, American, or Colgate.
Bottom line is that the Bison are unquestionably better than their RPI and UNI won't be considering the game a gimme by any means. When teams like UNI and Bucknell get to play in the national spotlight with a Top 25 ranking likely going to the victor you never know what can happen.
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jck45
Junior
Posts: 221
Reg: 01-24-06
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Re: According to Pomeroy...
02-08-06 03:32 PM - Post#14932
In response to Panthers Win!!
If Vegas does indeed put out a line on this game, my guess is that UNI will be 6.5 favorite.
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GoBison
Junior
Posts: 221
Reg: 01-22-06
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Re: According to Pomeroy...
02-08-06 03:35 PM - Post#14933
In response to jck45
I'm thinking "under" is the play here...
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ericatbucknell
PhD Student
Posts: 1940
Reg: 01-22-06
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Re: According to Pomeroy...
02-08-06 04:22 PM - Post#14934
In response to GoBison
pomeroys ratings dont penalize bucknell for playing army. rather, bucknell has slipped because they have failed to cover many of the spreads in patriot league play. in other words, a 9 point loss to uni does nothing to our pomeroy rating. an 8 point loss helps it and a 10 point loss hurts it.
im not sure that bucknell is much better than their rpi indicates. that said, i dont think uni is actually as good as theirs, either. thats not to say that theyre not good... but i dont think anyone honestly thinks theyre a top 10 team.
The Bracket Bustin' Bison are Back!
Okay. First round streak BACK ON! |
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jck45
Junior
Posts: 221
Reg: 01-24-06
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Re: According to Pomeroy...
02-08-06 04:56 PM - Post#14935
In response to ericatbucknell
We really don't have the QUALITY of wins we did last year. Fortunately, we dont have the bad losses either. I wish though we could have gotten to play more teams that were ranked 10-20. I know Syracuse was #17 but I think everybody knew deep down they didn't deserve it.
I think UNI is going to be the perfect test for us.
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Panthers Win!!
newbie
Posts: 47
Reg: 01-30-06
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Re: According to Pomeroy...
02-08-06 07:16 PM - Post#14936
In response to ericatbucknell
When I say penalize I mean that hypothetically if one is a top 10 team and that team plays in a league where the other teams don't win a lot out of conference your SOS will suffer. That great team wouldn't be able to demonstrate their ability (or raise their RPI) because they're just beating up on "cupcakes". In effect yes, a team would be "penalized" in the sense that they would be deemed only as good as your competition.
It's why UNI is also being rewarded (from an RPI standpoint at least), perhaps unjustly relative to actual strength, for having it's league win a lot of out of conference games this year and for keeping it's top teams free of losses to the low RPI teams in the league.
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: According to Pomeroy...
02-08-06 07:31 PM - Post#14937
In response to Panthers Win!!
Quote:
When I say penalize I mean that hypothetically if one is a top 10 team and that team plays in a league where the other teams don't win a lot out of conference your SOS will suffer. That great team wouldn't be able to demonstrate their ability (or raise their RPI) because they're just beating up on "cupcakes". In effect yes, a team would be "penalized" in the sense that they would be deemed only as good as your competition.
It's why UNI is also being rewarded (from an RPI standpoint at least), perhaps unjustly relative to actual strength, for having it's league win a lot of out of conference games this year and for keeping it's top teams free of losses to the low RPI teams in the league.
You're correct that UNI is rewarded by the RPI formula for its tough schedule. Bucknell likewise is penalized by the RPI for its conference schedule.
However Pomeroy's "rankings", like Sagarin's, attempt to adjust for the caliber of opposition by looking at the score differentials. IF Bucknell had consistently beaten all of its Patriot League foes by 20 or 30 points, its ranking would not have been adversely affected, although Sagarin (and possibly Pomeroy as well) does apply a diminishing returns principle that does not reward a team for beating some weak team by 50 points.
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Panthers Win!!
newbie
Posts: 47
Reg: 01-30-06
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Re: According to Pomeroy...
02-09-06 12:31 AM - Post#14938
In response to Bison137
Ah, I see. I stand corrected. While Ken Pomeroy's ratings seem to be well respected I just don't like the idea of factoring in point margin. There are far too many games I see that were close until the last minute when the foul barrage begins and it gets far beyond what it was during the entire game. Sometimes it goes the other way. As well, although much less frequently, a game will be well out of hand and a coach substitute much more liberally to get his starters rest and the bench experience. The margin may be much closer in those situations than the real quality of the teams.
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: According to Pomeroy...
02-09-06 02:14 AM - Post#14939
In response to Panthers Win!!
You point out a definite problem with any ranking system that uses margin of victory. On the other hand, the RPI gives the same credit for beating a team by 1 point or by 41 points, and that can also be criticized. Neither method will accurately reflect the relative strengths of the teams. Sagarin (and maybe Pomeroy also) actually has several different ways of ranking teams - one method gives credit for margin of victory, one only looks at who wins, and then the third method weights the results of the other two methods. The third is the published Sagarin rankings that you see in USA Today.
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