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Username Post: Women -- IL Play        (Topic#23809)
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1337

Age: 70
Reg: 01-15-16
01-11-20 08:51 AM - Post#296498    

Based on non-conference play, Tigers need to go at least 11-3 in IL play to make the NCAAW Tournament regardless of IvyMadness and today's game on the road plus the game at New Haven will be very challenging although games at Ithaca and NYC are not slam dunks.

It is only game 1 of the IL season so it is not a life and death situation to put it mildly based on Tiger's non-conference performance but it is a rivalry game and it is at the Palestra -- anything can happen in BB as witnessed over the past week at the Palestra and Jadwin. Several of the women were watching the 1st half last night and the walkaway is that they are tall, strong and well-conditioned.

Penn and Princeton have very comparative stats especially on the defensive end although the SOS is markedly different, #330 vs. #97. Of all IL teams, Penn's SOS is significantly lower than all other IL teams so prior stats may not mean as much although Penn has blown out most teams.

A victory for the Tigers would move them up several spots on the AP and Coaches Poll based on losses of several teams currently ahead of them this week so it is a very important game for NCAAW seeding purposes plus it helps to keep the Tigers in the spotlight. If the Tigers can get a #6 or even possibly a #5 seed, they improve their odds to get to a Final 16 although it is a long way to go plus injuries can occur.

Rivalry games are a challenge and Penn has a lot of talent with a big C to guard Bella, a good PG and a very good frosh scorer plus a great coach -- today's game is probably not going to be easy.

Although the IL Championship is always important, this team has the opportunity to achieve something that few IL teams have achieved in the past in Tournament play. It is rare indeed to have a top talent at Center in the IL plus a very good PG with a good supporting cast. This is Bella's senior season so this year is the opportunity year with obviously no guarantees. Blake Dietrick's undefeated team was very good but not up to the level of this year for Tournament play against Power 5 programs.

Cannot go to the Palestra today but will look forward to watching a replay, win or lose.

 
whitakk 
Junior
Posts: 298

Age: 28
Reg: 11-11-14
Re: Women -- IL Play
01-11-20 11:22 AM - Post#296504    
    In response to bradley

  • bradley Said:
Blake Dietrick's undefeated team was very good but not up to the level of this year for Tournament play against Power 5 programs.



The 2015 team finished #8 in the Massey ratings and won at #38 Pitt, #41 Michigan, #62 Duquesne, and of course #30 Green Bay in the tourney -- all by double digits -- plus five other top-100 wins. They would've been favored to make the Sweet 16 if not for getting horribly screwed by the committee.

 
whitakk 
Junior
Posts: 298

Age: 28
Reg: 11-11-14
01-11-20 01:39 PM - Post#296515    
    In response to whitakk

Connolly playing really well with Littlefield out.

First time really watching Penn this year, Padilla sure is something...

 
Tiger84 
Freshman
Posts: 60

Age: 57
Reg: 03-06-17
Women -- IL Play
01-11-20 01:56 PM - Post#296520    
    In response to whitakk

Hoping that Littlefield can stop Padilla in the second half if she can stay out of further foul trouble. Padilla is going to be a handful for the next 4 years.

Edited by Tiger84 on 01-11-20 01:57 PM. Reason for edit: Typo

 
welcometothejungle 
Sophomore
Posts: 166

Age: 22
Reg: 07-31-19
01-11-20 02:52 PM - Post#296528    
    In response to Tiger84

Very impressive 2nd half from the Tigers leads to a 75-55 win. Alarie leads the way with a typical 23/11 with 2 blocks and 2 steals, Baur also had perhaps the best game of her career with 15 points and 11 rebounds. Cunningham and Littlefield struggled a little offensively, but Connolly and Meyers stepped in off the bench. This team's depth is really special.

Penn's Padilla is a really good player, she'll be fun to watch going forward

 
whitakk 
Junior
Posts: 298

Age: 28
Reg: 11-11-14
01-11-20 02:52 PM - Post#296529    
    In response to Tiger84

This team is so good on defense and the glass -- eighth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency entering the game per HerHoopStats and will probably stay in that range after holding Penn to .87 PPP.

14-1 from here on out (no gimme in a tough league, but they just won the toughest game on paper by 20) should get them a top-8 seed I'd think, but always hard to know what to expect...

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1337

Age: 70
Reg: 01-15-16
01-11-20 04:01 PM - Post#296534    
    In response to whitakk

Courtney, either by design and/or by luck to some degree, did an incredible job of recruiting a perfectly balanced team with a lot of talent. Unlike Blake Dietrick's team and Weisz/Cook team, this group is just at a higher level as to the potential to compete with top Power 5 teams largely due to construction of the team in addition to talent level. If this team was in a Power 5 conference, they have the skill sets to compete against the best.

What should help them from a seeding standpoint assuming that they play well in the IL, is that the IL women's conference is 8th ranked and although the Tigers RPI will go down based on league play, they should receive a #6 or #5 seed let's say if they finish 13-1 in league play and win IvyMadness -- big ifs based on the talent of the league.

There is one player on the roster that is a wild card as to the heights that they can achieve -- Meyers. She is either the 2nd or 3rd most talented player on the team but she is challenging for Coach Berube to corral. Her ability to play disciplined basketball may decide the Tiger's ultimate fate.

Penn is a very good team and in all likelihood, the 4th best team that the Tigers have faced so far in a very challenging non-conference schedule. It was good that the Tigers escaped the Palestra today.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1337

Age: 70
Reg: 01-15-16
01-11-20 05:01 PM - Post#296542    
    In response to bradley

After watching replay, Princeton did not play well in the 1st half and Padilla was unconscious in 3 pt shooting and Penn hit some tough shots. Tigers should have been up by 10 at HT but they started to put it together in the 2nd half. Tigers took Penn's best shot in the 1st half but started to put it together in the second half. Defense really tightened up in the 2nd half.

Penn gave them a good battle which the Tiger's need. Zone defense was a very good move by Penn Coach as it confused the Tigers. Penn announcers were a joke -- "Our Team"??

Tigers may get to #22 in AP poll and #21 in Coaches Poll.

 
welcometothejungle 
Sophomore
Posts: 166

Age: 22
Reg: 07-31-19
Women -- IL Play
01-14-20 12:22 PM - Post#296667    
    In response to bradley

The Tigers dropped out of the AP Top 25 this week despite the 20 point win at Penn, but were the highest in the "others receiving votes" category. Unfortunately, previously unranked Iowa and Arizona State both had 2 upset wins over ranked opponents this week, which led to both teams leapfrogging the Tigers and knocking them out of the top 25

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1337

Age: 70
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Women -- IL Play
01-14-20 12:47 PM - Post#296668    
    In response to welcometothejungle

Tigers also dropped to #26 in the Coaches Poll. Both the AP poll and the Coaches Poll now have them as #26. As you pointed out, several teams jumped the Tigers due to major upset wins on Sunday including Iowa that upset #4 ranked Indiana in double OT. It is unfortunate indeed that the Tigers blew a 6pt lead to Iowa in OT on the road as a win against Iowa would have securely kept them in the top #25 but there is time for them to get back up in the top 25. Unfortunately, with the Tiger's break and upcoming games on the road against Dartmouth and Harvard, they are probably not going to get back to the top 25 for several weeks. If they beat Yale and Penn at home that will give them 2 quadrant one wins and should get them back in the top 25 dependent on what other teams do.

ESPN had moved them up to a #6 seed prior to the win against Penn but just dropped back to #7 based on what happened this past weekend. A long way to go but in a perfect world they wind up as a #5 seed or no worse than #6 to improve their odds to reach the final 16.

Over the past 6 games including Penn, Penn State, Missouri and St. Louis, the average margin of victory is 28 points in dominant wins. They have played only two single digit games, 2 pt win against Seton Hall on the road and 3 pt loss in OT to Iowa on the road.

To get to a #5 seed, they may have to win every IL regular season game as well as IvyMadness which will be a very tall order even with their skill level as IL is clearly the #8 conference in the country.

Hopefully, Penn will beat both Villanova and Temple in upcoming games as it will be good that Penn is a quadrant 1 game as well as Yale.

 
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