bradley
PhD Student
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01-11-20 09:51 AM - Post#296498
Based on non-conference play, Tigers need to go at least 11-3 in IL play to make the NCAAW Tournament regardless of IvyMadness and today's game on the road plus the game at New Haven will be very challenging although games at Ithaca and NYC are not slam dunks.
It is only game 1 of the IL season so it is not a life and death situation to put it mildly based on Tiger's non-conference performance but it is a rivalry game and it is at the Palestra -- anything can happen in BB as witnessed over the past week at the Palestra and Jadwin. Several of the women were watching the 1st half last night and the walkaway is that they are tall, strong and well-conditioned.
Penn and Princeton have very comparative stats especially on the defensive end although the SOS is markedly different, #330 vs. #97. Of all IL teams, Penn's SOS is significantly lower than all other IL teams so prior stats may not mean as much although Penn has blown out most teams.
A victory for the Tigers would move them up several spots on the AP and Coaches Poll based on losses of several teams currently ahead of them this week so it is a very important game for NCAAW seeding purposes plus it helps to keep the Tigers in the spotlight. If the Tigers can get a #6 or even possibly a #5 seed, they improve their odds to get to a Final 16 although it is a long way to go plus injuries can occur.
Rivalry games are a challenge and Penn has a lot of talent with a big C to guard Bella, a good PG and a very good frosh scorer plus a great coach -- today's game is probably not going to be easy.
Although the IL Championship is always important, this team has the opportunity to achieve something that few IL teams have achieved in the past in Tournament play. It is rare indeed to have a top talent at Center in the IL plus a very good PG with a good supporting cast. This is Bella's senior season so this year is the opportunity year with obviously no guarantees. Blake Dietrick's undefeated team was very good but not up to the level of this year for Tournament play against Power 5 programs.
Cannot go to the Palestra today but will look forward to watching a replay, win or lose.
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whitakk
Masters Student
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Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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Re: Women -- IL Play 01-11-20 12:22 PM - Post#296504
In response to bradley
Blake Dietrick's undefeated team was very good but not up to the level of this year for Tournament play against Power 5 programs.
The 2015 team finished #8 in the Massey ratings and won at #38 Pitt, #41 Michigan, #62 Duquesne, and of course #30 Green Bay in the tourney -- all by double digits -- plus five other top-100 wins. They would've been favored to make the Sweet 16 if not for getting horribly screwed by the committee.
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whitakk
Masters Student
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Age: 32
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01-11-20 02:39 PM - Post#296515
In response to whitakk
Connolly playing really well with Littlefield out.
First time really watching Penn this year, Padilla sure is something...
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Tiger84
Senior
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Women -- IL Play 01-11-20 02:56 PM - Post#296520
In response to whitakk
Hoping that Littlefield can stop Padilla in the second half if she can stay out of further foul trouble. Padilla is going to be a handful for the next 4 years.
Edited by Tiger84 on 01-11-20 02:57 PM. Reason for edit: Typo
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
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01-11-20 03:52 PM - Post#296528
In response to Tiger84
Very impressive 2nd half from the Tigers leads to a 75-55 win. Alarie leads the way with a typical 23/11 with 2 blocks and 2 steals, Baur also had perhaps the best game of her career with 15 points and 11 rebounds. Cunningham and Littlefield struggled a little offensively, but Connolly and Meyers stepped in off the bench. This team's depth is really special.
Penn's Padilla is a really good player, she'll be fun to watch going forward
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whitakk
Masters Student
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01-11-20 03:52 PM - Post#296529
In response to Tiger84
This team is so good on defense and the glass -- eighth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency entering the game per HerHoopStats and will probably stay in that range after holding Penn to .87 PPP.
14-1 from here on out (no gimme in a tough league, but they just won the toughest game on paper by 20) should get them a top-8 seed I'd think, but always hard to know what to expect...
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bradley
PhD Student
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Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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01-11-20 05:01 PM - Post#296534
In response to whitakk
Courtney, either by design and/or by luck to some degree, did an incredible job of recruiting a perfectly balanced team with a lot of talent. Unlike Blake Dietrick's team and Weisz/Cook team, this group is just at a higher level as to the potential to compete with top Power 5 teams largely due to construction of the team in addition to talent level. If this team was in a Power 5 conference, they have the skill sets to compete against the best.
What should help them from a seeding standpoint assuming that they play well in the IL, is that the IL women's conference is 8th ranked and although the Tigers RPI will go down based on league play, they should receive a #6 or #5 seed let's say if they finish 13-1 in league play and win IvyMadness -- big ifs based on the talent of the league.
There is one player on the roster that is a wild card as to the heights that they can achieve -- Meyers. She is either the 2nd or 3rd most talented player on the team but she is challenging for Coach Berube to corral. Her ability to play disciplined basketball may decide the Tiger's ultimate fate.
Penn is a very good team and in all likelihood, the 4th best team that the Tigers have faced so far in a very challenging non-conference schedule. It was good that the Tigers escaped the Palestra today.
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bradley
PhD Student
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Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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01-11-20 06:01 PM - Post#296542
In response to bradley
After watching replay, Princeton did not play well in the 1st half and Padilla was unconscious in 3 pt shooting and Penn hit some tough shots. Tigers should have been up by 10 at HT but they started to put it together in the 2nd half. Tigers took Penn's best shot in the 1st half but started to put it together in the second half. Defense really tightened up in the 2nd half.
Penn gave them a good battle which the Tiger's need. Zone defense was a very good move by Penn Coach as it confused the Tigers. Penn announcers were a joke -- "Our Team"??
Tigers may get to #22 in AP poll and #21 in Coaches Poll.
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
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Women -- IL Play 01-14-20 01:22 PM - Post#296667
In response to bradley
The Tigers dropped out of the AP Top 25 this week despite the 20 point win at Penn, but were the highest in the "others receiving votes" category. Unfortunately, previously unranked Iowa and Arizona State both had 2 upset wins over ranked opponents this week, which led to both teams leapfrogging the Tigers and knocking them out of the top 25
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bradley
PhD Student
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Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Women -- IL Play 01-14-20 01:47 PM - Post#296668
In response to welcometothejungle
Tigers also dropped to #26 in the Coaches Poll. Both the AP poll and the Coaches Poll now have them as #26. As you pointed out, several teams jumped the Tigers due to major upset wins on Sunday including Iowa that upset #4 ranked Indiana in double OT. It is unfortunate indeed that the Tigers blew a 6pt lead to Iowa in OT on the road as a win against Iowa would have securely kept them in the top #25 but there is time for them to get back up in the top 25. Unfortunately, with the Tiger's break and upcoming games on the road against Dartmouth and Harvard, they are probably not going to get back to the top 25 for several weeks. If they beat Yale and Penn at home that will give them 2 quadrant one wins and should get them back in the top 25 dependent on what other teams do.
ESPN had moved them up to a #6 seed prior to the win against Penn but just dropped back to #7 based on what happened this past weekend. A long way to go but in a perfect world they wind up as a #5 seed or no worse than #6 to improve their odds to reach the final 16.
Over the past 6 games including Penn, Penn State, Missouri and St. Louis, the average margin of victory is 28 points in dominant wins. They have played only two single digit games, 2 pt win against Seton Hall on the road and 3 pt loss in OT to Iowa on the road.
To get to a #5 seed, they may have to win every IL regular season game as well as IvyMadness which will be a very tall order even with their skill level as IL is clearly the #8 conference in the country.
Hopefully, Penn will beat both Villanova and Temple in upcoming games as it will be good that Penn is a quadrant 1 game as well as Yale.
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bradley
PhD Student
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Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Women -- IL Play 01-19-20 10:17 PM - Post#297109
In response to bradley
Top 25 teams had a very good week this past week. Unlikely, the Tigers will not move up one spot to get back into the top 25 due to their inactivity and the performance of others.
Tiger's RPI is currently #21. Warren Nolan has them going 14-0 in the IL and a final RPI ranking of #10. Realtime has the Tigers finishing up 14-0 as well with a final RPI ranking of #13. Both RPI rankings seem unlikely based on the assumption that the Tigers go undefeated and a number of top 25 Teams falter. At the end of the day, the hope is to get a #6 seed if at all possible.
Even with Penn's loss to Villanova, IL conference held its' #8 conference ranking. Strength of schedule for the IL women is only #18 but the win ratio is the fifth highest in the country, 67% 68-33. Both IL women and men need to toughen up their non-conference schedules next year, especially the women.
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bradley
PhD Student
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Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Women -- IL Play 01-21-20 05:32 PM - Post#297171
In response to bradley
Tigers drop to #28 - AP poll and remain #26 - Coaches Poll. ESPN still has them as #7 seed in NCAAW Tournament.
Unless several 25 teams falter, the Tigers will probably not have the opportunity to move up to the top 25 until after February 14th when they play Yale on the road and/or the rematch with Penn on 2/25 --- only if they win both games which will be not easy especially the road game at New Haven. Both Yale and Penn hopefully will be quad 1 games.
To hold the #8 ranked conference, it would certainly help if Penn wins on the road against a good Temple team this week.
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
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01-28-20 06:48 PM - Post#297716
In response to bradley
This week's ESPN bracketology has the Tigers as a 6 seed, and interestingly has them in as an at-large now that Yale with 2 wins is in 1st place in the league and gets the autobid in bracketology. Yale comes in at a 12 seed.
In an article about this week's prediction mentions that Princeton is a solid at-large candidate should they lose in the Ivy League tournament
https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basket ball/sto...
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bradley
PhD Student
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Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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01-28-20 09:27 PM - Post#297724
In response to welcometothejungle
Interesting article and says it all as to how the IL women are getting recognition, nationally. Yale is a good team as they have a very good big plus a tough PG and very good 3 pt shooters. The Tigers game at New Haven may be their biggest challenge.
Even though the Tigers have not played in a while, they are #26 in AP and #27 Coaches Poll and very close to getting into the top 25 now that they are back in action this weekend on the road at Dartmouth and Harvard. The game against Harvard should be somewhat challenging.They will have a significant size and talent advantage against Dartmouth but you never know.
Reality is that the Tigers need to win every game in the Il regular season if they are going to get a #6 seed or possibly a #5 seed. They probably also need to win games in convincing fashion -- double digit wins to capture the attention of voters. If they have a 13-1 or 14-0 IL regular season, IvyMadness may not cause a major disruption in seeding if they do not win the wacky tournament.
Hopefully, the rust from the layoff does not cause a disruption this weekend -- I suspect not but time will tell.
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Albert08
Masters Student
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01-30-20 02:20 PM - Post#297836
In response to bradley
An interesting article (Jan. 29, 2020) about Olivia Miles, the #2 ranked 2021 player, who's a junior at Blair Academy:
https://www.espn.in/womens-college-basketb all/stor...
For Tiger fans, the shocking quotes are the following:
"For now, Miles has narrowed her list to six schools: North Carolina, Stanford, Notre Dame, Oregon, Princeton and Connecticut.
"Miles' recruitment likely would be over if coach Courtney Banghart hadn't gone from Princeton to North Carolina.
"I would have gone there if she didn't leave," Miles said. "I wouldn't have committed there, but it would've had a very high chance because all my family wants to see me play."
We know Courtney was a great recruiter (and she still may land Miles at UNC). But if Carla could pull this off, it would be a pretty amazing feat, and further raise the profile of the IL for future recruits.
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
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01-31-20 10:01 PM - Post#298135
In response to Albert08
Very similar to the men's game, the women's game was much tighter in the first half than the second half, as the Tigers stretched a 10 point half time lead into a 32 point win over the Big Green.
Both men's and women's teams put up 66 points today!
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bradley
PhD Student
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01-31-20 10:31 PM - Post#298143
In response to welcometothejungle
Thanks for update. Defense wins games and Tigers women and now men play D. Tomorrow night much tougher game against Crimson women. I hope that Berube used height advantage tonite.
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bradley
PhD Student
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Age: 74
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02-01-20 11:15 AM - Post#298178
In response to bradley
Watched replay - Tigers allow 20 points over final 30 minutes with many players off bench. Bella dominates when Littlefield has off night and win by 32. Margin of victory off past 10 games is insane. Tonight - Harvard has a legit big to fend off Bella -good PG and 3 pt shooters. Win let alone double digit win is the challenge.
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
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02-01-20 06:46 PM - Post#298235
In response to bradley
WBB up 32-22 at the half at Harvard. Lead had ballooned to 14 before 7-0 run by Harvard cut it in half, then an Alarie 3 at the buzzer sent the Tigers to the locker room up double digits.
Relatively quiet half for Alarie with 7 points on only 4 FG attempts, as Harvard mostly has done a good job swarming her and forcing others to score. Cunningham with 8 and Stone has 5. Tigers shot just 2/9 from 3, but scored 22 points in the paint
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
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02-01-20 07:41 PM - Post#298255
In response to welcometothejungle
WBB cruises to a 60-46 win. 16 for Cunningham, 13/6/2 for Alarie, Littlefield with 10 points and 5 assists
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