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Username Post: Yale II        (Topic#23853)
Chip Bayers 
Professor
Posts: 6997
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
01-24-20 08:45 PM - Post#297340    

This is some U-G-L-Y basketball both ways. Yale up 28-22 2:25 left in the half.


 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
01-24-20 10:20 PM - Post#297342    
    In response to Chip Bayers

Looked beautiful to me...nice win by Yale.

I had brown with the upset. they were home and everyone was on Yale’s jock after hating them 2 mos ago.

Of course matthue Cotton, a part of Yale’s “overvalued” sophomore class according to this boards quant geeks preseason—was the difference.

Yale is flawed and brown hates them. but it’s survive and advance and the defense was tough as hell

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3988

Reg: 11-23-04
01-24-20 10:44 PM - Post#297343    
    In response to james

Yale's D was excellent, two weeks in a row, is that a trend? Brown out-rebounded Yale, and missed a few layups, but Yale got better shots. I think we will be seeing more of Cowen. Bruner got 2 pts, both FTs. Cotton had a career high 20 pts, and 5-10 from 3. DeWolf was ill and played 3 minutes in the first half. Ganey didn't score, Yale kept him away from the hoop. Hope we can find some better ball movement.

 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
01-24-20 10:59 PM - Post#297345    
    In response to Old Bear

Yale’s d has been excellent for 2 months in a row.

Mike James thinks it mean reverts. But he also hated their recruiting.

Now he thinks they are a tourney team.

I think they are tough given what they lost and have talent. But I thought that 2 mos ago and don’t need an algorithm.

They don’t have Harvard’s talent even with the latters injuries so jury is out.

 
JBears 
Senior
Posts: 334

Reg: 06-06-12
01-24-20 11:15 PM - Post#297346    
    In response to Old Bear

Yale clearly the better team. Bigger. Stronger. Bigs skillful and shoot well. Good shooters and a true point guard. And they play real tight D. Dogs had very active hands when Brown got in the paint, with quite a few steals. All that said, the Bears acquitted themselves well, overall. Very good defense and out rebounded good rebounding Yale team. But Bears had a lot of unforced TO’s, although Yale’s mere presence probably attributed to some. Got in Bear’s heads. Brown played tight and had a poor shooting night. In the post game Martin said he has to do a better job creating more and better opportunities. In was a great atmosphere for a collage b-ball game, with the Pitz looking just about full from my vantage point. The students were ready get rocking on a few plays, but Yale quieted things by not allowing the Bears to get on a roll as they did against URI. Tough matchup to start the season. It is starting to remind of playing Yale first in football during the 70’s and many years after, Brown usually losing, starting league play 0-1 all too often. Need to go at least 3-1 in next 4 games, all at home. Or the chances of making tourney may be dim.

 
Bruno 
PhD Student
Posts: 1414

Loc: Brooklyn, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
01-25-20 12:13 AM - Post#297349    
    In response to JBears

Agree with the Bear that Yale played great defense again. They’re just better. Brown didn’t get great shots all night and didn’t make their open looks. Offense struggling. But I thought defensively Brown was good and had some great stretches again. Liked their mini-comeback late, but with a good crowd for the Ivy opener on national TV, I wish they’d had a better showing.

Give credit to the staff for making some changes to the starting lineup. Pulling Howard seemed to have some impact - he played a little more aggressively I thought. Hunsaker may have to be next. URI aside, he just doesn’t hit shots anymore.
LET'S go BRU-no (duh. nuh. nuh-nuh-nuh)


 
Naismith 
Sophomore
Posts: 149

Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
01-25-20 06:04 PM - Post#297425    
    In response to Bruno

Back to backs at Yale and Brown are going to be brutal for the other six teams. Yale can check off the Out of Providence Alive box so that's a big win.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-26-20 12:50 PM - Post#297510    
    In response to james

You really hear what you want to hear.

NOT ALL D MEAN REVERTS!!!!!!!!

There are elements of the game more under the control of the offense. Those will tend to mean revert over time. There are elements of the game that are more under the control of the defense. Those will sustain over time.

Yale is a strong defensive team around the tin, and that will sustain. They have been incredibly lucky on 3PT D and on 2PT J D. That won’t sustain. They’ve also been unlucky defensively from the stripe and on non-steal TOs. All told, Yale has gotten better defensive outcomes than it deserves, but it’s not like the D should fall out of the 50-75 range.

As for the recruiting piece, pretty sure my only major comments have been about how I thought Cotton wasn’t the 4-star people were saying he was and Kelly wasn’t a true 3-star. Feels pretty on the mark. Cotton has been a serviceable piece, but not what you’d expect out of a 4-star as a sophomore.

I also don’t think Yale will END up having a tourney caliber resume, because they’re gonna lose a few Ivy games. As of now they have one, but that has been predicated on a defense that is good but not truly Top 25 nationally.

 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
01-29-20 10:50 PM - Post#297787    
    In response to mrjames

Cotton a 4 star? Ha

he had offers that were pulled but I can’t find a ranking his senior year which remotely resembled a 4 star. 4 star athlete, yes!

Kelly was in the same boat. Of course I watched him play also but his status even in ga faded when Wendell graduated as he played a Robin role bc he was a dunker/finisher but didn’t have a well rounded game and wasn’t an obvious guard/swing player at the d 1 level which is why yale got him

For the record cotton is showing he was an excellent recruit for Yale and Kelly still holds promise as he is a high major athlete which is why he was attractive when playing Robin.

If your Yale you don’t replace 4 starters and compete even in the IL if you don’t consistently find and stash the cotton and Kelly’s, high major athletes who can develop. Cotton is emerging this year. Kelly hasn’t yet but still time for him to round it out and show out. We’ll see but it nothing has been a surprise to anyone inside the program thus far.

Revisionist history or in some cases post revisionist history is too rampant in the IL

And you can’t model recruiting at least at this level of d1

 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
01-29-20 10:52 PM - Post#297788    
    In response to james

no idea on defense mean reverting.

I would argue the length and athleticism at the 3-5 helps a ton but is offset at 1-2 when you factor in guarding the line.

of course you scheme it but swain and monroe could be a liability.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-30-20 07:38 PM - Post#297868    
    In response to james

There’s a great, old thread on the Penn boards entitled “2018 recruiting.” That has all the info about how Cotton was being paraded around as a 4-star even though his stock was falling. My point at the time was that he was nowhere near a four-star but was still a very good Ivy recruit.

As for modeling out recruiting, you certainly can, even at this level of D1. I would know because I have. I have a very good sense what what you can model out with decent confidence (predicting win shares for team-level aggregate classes) and what you can’t get a ton of confidence around (individual recruits win share outputs).

I’m not all that surprised about how Yale is doing this season. Once you luck adjust their defense, they’re in the 100-ish range.

 
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