palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32859
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-30-20 12:04 PM - Post#297816
I figure that to ensure a playoff spot, Penn has to win 8 of its remaining 12 Ivy games. With 4 against Harvard and Yale, that will not be easy. Assuming that Penn wins all 4 of its home games against Columbia, Brown, Dartmouth and Cornell (only the last of which is truly a sure W), that requires a combination of 4 wins against Harvard and Yale at home and the other 4 on the road.
Is that doable?
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8288
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-30-20 12:26 PM - Post#297820
In response to palestra38
First of all, I think they sweep Cornell. Despite our dismal record at Levien, sweeping Columbia is also better than 50/50. We will certainly be favored in all 4 games unless AJ gets hurt. In that case, all you need is a split with H&Y. Very doable if they can shoot 35% from 3 and avoid meltdowns like what we saw against Temple.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2817
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-30-20 12:28 PM - Post#297821
In response to palestra38
You can get the first six by wiring the Palestra scoreboard.😜
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
01-30-20 12:37 PM - Post#297822
In response to palestra38
I haven't run the sims, but I'd think more likely than not 7 wins will get it done. Won't go through all the permutations there, but I think 7 will be enough.
First, Penn is close to 45% to be .500 after the weekend and should be favored in both games (Harvard could be a PK, but -1 to -2 makes more sense). In general, Penn is 80% or so to grab at least one from Harvard and Yale. 6-2 against the other four seems reasonable.
It feels like, to me, there are two paths to the tourney:
1) Sweep Brown. Any reasonable performance outside of that probably puts you in.
2) Put up 7+ wins (as long as Princeton finishes no better than 3rd - possibly 8 if they win the whole thing).
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Quaker75
Freshman
Posts: 37
Age: 59
Reg: 12-29-13
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01-31-20 10:03 AM - Post#297884
In response to mrjames
I think you get to eight wins by scoring more points than the other team 8x. 
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2697
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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01-31-20 10:18 AM - Post#297886
In response to Quaker75
If either Brown or Penn sweep their home/home, that should be determinative.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2140
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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01-31-20 08:31 PM - Post#298103
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Tonight's win was a good start. Would have been a lot less stressful if we hadn't gone ice cold for most of the second half.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-01-20 01:28 AM - Post#298154
In response to weinhauers_ghost
If the tournament started today, we’d be the 4th team in, remarkably.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3619
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-01-20 01:39 AM - Post#298155
In response to SomeGuy
The key is NO LET DOWN tomorrow. Dartmouth did not play well against Princeton, but this is the kind of game/team that this Penn team has not played well against. Just can’t have a letdown tomorrow and have to protect home court. Let’s hope we can rediscover ability to hit 3’s at a good clip as a team again.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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02-02-20 10:11 PM - Post#298433
In response to Mike Porter
Anyone else thinking like me? That Princeton is the best team in the league. Makes me want to puke.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2140
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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02-02-20 11:25 PM - Post#298437
In response to OldBig5
Anyone else thinking like me? That Princeton is the best team in the league. Makes me want to puke.
Let's see how they look against Yale before we reach that conclusion.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3589
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-03-20 12:35 AM - Post#298441
In response to weinhauers_ghost
Yale is decidedly the best team in the league and I don’t think Princeton is a close 2nd.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-03-20 12:37 AM - Post#298442
In response to OldBig5
Yale has been the best team in the league thus far, and it isn’t very close. Princeton underperformed their talent early on but seems to have come together. But Yale has played at a higher level more or less all year.
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Quaker75
Freshman
Posts: 37
Age: 59
Reg: 12-29-13
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02-03-20 12:30 PM - Post#298465
In response to SomeGuy
Lots of things can happen, the games are often about matchups. Go Quakers
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Quaker75
Freshman
Posts: 37
Age: 59
Reg: 12-29-13
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02-03-20 12:31 PM - Post#298466
In response to Quaker75
Lots of things can happen, the games are often about matchups. Go Quakers
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2697
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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02-03-20 01:02 PM - Post#298470
In response to Quaker75
Not unlikely that Princeton hosts Yale on Valentine's day with both teams being 6-0. That's one matchup threatening to ruin a lot of Valentine's Day plans.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2817
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-03-20 01:07 PM - Post#298471
In response to Quaker75
To OldBig5: Princeton will likely settle to earth soon. Hard to disagree that Yale looks like the class of the League.
Oh, and if you want to puke, try sticking your finger down your throat.ðŸ…
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32859
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-03-20 01:38 PM - Post#298475
In response to Tiger69
...or drink the tap water down by where you're living.
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Quaker75
Freshman
Posts: 37
Age: 59
Reg: 12-29-13
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02-03-20 01:41 PM - Post#298476
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
How one team plays another can be much different. Cornell gave Yale a fight. The IVY back to back schedule weighs as well. The Quakers have their work cut out for themselves against Cornell and Columbia. Lots of good players giving great effort at all of these schools.
Makes it fun.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4915
Reg: 02-04-06
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02-03-20 07:21 PM - Post#298497
In response to Quaker75
Rational Tiger fans are not feeling cocky, but are now endowed with hope. The team has jelled quite a bit on both ends, has a rotation giving fairly predictable inputs, and still has things that could plausibly improve without trading off other stuff. But nobody is taking any games for granted, much less future contests with Yale.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 4002
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-03-20 09:17 PM - Post#298511
In response to palestra38
I am pretty sure that P69 drinks the beer, not the water.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2817
Reg: 11-23-04
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How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
02-04-20 02:21 AM - Post#298521
In response to Old Bear
True that, OB. It’s the safest thing to do! And, I’m too old to drink much.ðŸ™
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Kwaequer
Postdoc
Posts: 3084
Age: 43
Reg: 12-20-15
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02-04-20 07:36 AM - Post#298522
In response to Tiger69
So you're 69 years old and trolling our site? Nice. And here I thought it was your IQ.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2817
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-04-20 06:31 PM - Post#298558
In response to Kwaequer
Hello, Kwacker. You appear to be new at this game.ðŸ…
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Charlie Fog
Masters Student
Posts: 587
Age: 55
Loc: Philly
Reg: 11-12-13
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02-05-20 08:08 AM - Post#298578
In response to Tiger69
Hello, Kwacker. You appear to be new at this game.ðŸ…
yeah he must be.
you have been at this for years, whenever Princeton prematurely ej the season and then you disappear.
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westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts: 196
Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
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02-06-20 01:07 PM - Post#298702
In response to Charlie Fog
I hate looking at this thread title "How do we get to 8 wins?".
Let's leave that kind of thinking to the Brown's and Dartmouth's of the world.
Can we pretend we're back to the good old pre-tournament days and switch it to "How do we get to 11 or 12 wins and finish in first place?".
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1156
Reg: 07-28-07
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02-06-20 01:55 PM - Post#298712
In response to westphillywarrior
Exactly the way to think WPW!
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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02-07-20 10:18 AM - Post#298780
In response to Tiger69
Hello, Kwacker. You appear to be new at this game.ðŸ…
Dad always warned me about your Princeton types.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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02-07-20 10:20 AM - Post#298781
In response to westphillywarrior
I hate looking at this thread title "How do we get to 8 wins?".
Let's leave that kind of thinking to the Brown's and Dartmouth's of the world.
Can we pretend we're back to the good old pre-tournament days and switch it to "How do we get to 11 or 12 wins and finish in first place?".
10 seems a good hit end target. Still have Yale and Harvard on the road--lose both those and run the other games and you end up 10-4.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
02-07-20 06:23 PM - Post#298871
In response to SRP
I know it's way too early, a lot can happen (especially with injuries) and this is probably the kiss of death, but if we're able to get in, what do we want? I'd like to start choosing a side when watching these other conference games. It seems that avoiding Yale makes sense, but outside of the problem that two bigs presents, we match up pretty well against them. Then you have Harvard at home who may or may not have their stars back or a Princeton team that owns us. I'm torn.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
02-07-20 07:28 PM - Post#298882
In response to Quakers03
Harvard 52
Yale 49
Big first half lead apparently cut now.
Ten minutes left and anything can happen but are many of you still sticking with yale being the class of the league?
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
02-07-20 07:38 PM - Post#298884
In response to OldBig5
Harvard by 10 with about 5 minutes left. It's on ESPNU BTW,
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-07-20 07:43 PM - Post#298885
In response to OldBig5
Tune in after for the 7-14 Niagara game which gets the primetime slot over the Ivies. Only the best for this league!
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-07-20 07:57 PM - Post#298891
In response to Quakers03
Some game. How in the world do Swain or Atkinson not take the shot down 2?! Swain has ice water.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-07-20 07:59 PM - Post#298892
In response to Quakers03
Bruner, who earlier tweaked his knee, got blocked, got the rebound, kicked it to an open Cotton ... who air balled an open 3 with 6 seconds left.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-07-20 08:01 PM - Post#298893
In response to Quakers03
Welp, force the ball to Bruner and you can beat Yale. What poor execution in a loss that just dashed the two-bid ivy chances.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-07-20 08:03 PM - Post#298895
In response to Quakers03
Or maybe not!
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-07-20 08:03 PM - Post#298896
In response to Chip Bayers
Are you effing kidding me?!?!
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-07-20 08:05 PM - Post#298898
In response to SRP
Officials successfully ice Swain, Harvard wins.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-07-20 08:05 PM - Post#298899
In response to Quakers03
There’s my boy Tim Kelly icing Swain as they look at the clock. Lol. He’s the worst.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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02-07-20 08:17 PM - Post#298903
In response to Quakers03
Excuses are for losers.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
02-07-20 08:24 PM - Post#298904
In response to OldBig5
Sydney Johnson, who I’d venture to say knows a WHOLE LOT more than you about that kind of circumstance, remarked seconds prior that Swain has been waiting an awfully long time. Had he missed the shot off right or left I could hear it, but he was short, the EXACT result that comes from waiting for so long. I understand they need to look, but they do NOT need to take that long. I’m just glad we’ve yet to see Tim this year. He remains the worst, but par for the course with our Mickey Mouse league.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
02-07-20 08:37 PM - Post#298907
In response to Quakers03
That's the way games are at all levels now--guys have to be ready for that when they shoot free throws. I would think teams practice it.
Is there any actual empirical evidence to suggest guys miss more when there is more time taken? I kind of doubt it because I think any nervousness would be offset by the rest you get--chance to clam down and take some deep breaths.
I know people in football have looked at icing the kicker and although it worked for the Eagles last year it doesn't seem to have any effect.
Seems like this is a myth.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-07-20 09:03 PM - Post#298912
In response to OldBig5
It is 100% not a myth in basketball. Just look at how he missed the shot. I’ll have to find the football study I read recently but that had more to do with getting a practice kick off.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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02-07-20 09:12 PM - Post#298914
In response to Quakers03
It is 100% not a myth in basketball. Just look at how he missed the shot. I’ll have to find the football study I read recently but that had more to do with getting a practice kick off.
IN your mind it's not a myth but I remain unconvinced.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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02-07-20 09:45 PM - Post#298921
In response to Quakers03
It is 100% not a myth in basketball. Just look at how he missed the shot. I’ll have to find the football study I read recently but that had more to do with getting a practice kick off.
This was the only thing I could find. The author admits it's a small sample size but to be honest based on one quick read through I could not tell the time period of the data he is looking at.
I would think at the end of games fatigue is a factor also and would also account for free throws being short. Often times in recent years when Penn is shooting I wish the other team would ice our guys.
http://www.zigzaganalytics.com/home/-can-you-reall...
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
02-08-20 05:11 PM - Post#299056
In response to OldBig5
Harvard 52
Yale 49
Big first half lead apparently cut now.
Ten minutes left and anything can happen but are many of you still sticking with yale being the class of the league?
Do I have to comment on this?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32859
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
02-10-20 09:17 AM - Post#299357
In response to SomeGuy
OK, we're 4-2, with 4 straight Ivy wins. With the 2 C's at home, that should be 6 wins with the need to get to 8 (with the way things are playing out with Brown and Harvard, it may necessitate 9, but I don't think so). Dartmouth on the road becomes a must win, and then have to pick up only 1 win from the 4 games with Yale and Brown (assuming a loss at Harvard for the purposes of this discussion---if we win that game, we will probably contend for a top 2 seed).
I'm feeling much better about things now than after than 2nd Princeton game. And we're now playing the guys who have the best chance of getting us there and being competitive once we get there.
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LyleGold
PhD Student
Posts: 1712
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
02-10-20 12:39 PM - Post#299390
In response to palestra38
I'm feeling much better about things now than after than 2nd Princeton game. And we're now playing the guys who have the best chance of getting us there and being competitive once we get there.
I agree about being forced to play the guys who are most likely to be effective. Betley seemed to be the odd guy out as a starter, although he was getting a little more consistent with his shot before the latest injury. However, that didn't make up for the other deficiencies that became evident this year. Eddie Scott has responded well to more playing time, and Martz now knows he has to be more aggressive offensively. In the long run, we may be better off.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32859
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-07-20 11:27 PM - Post#303549
In response to palestra38
Well, my post title was right, but my suggestion that Dartmouth was the "must" game was incorrect--it was Brown. But we got to 8 and got the spot.
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frank
Junior
Posts: 211
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-08-20 05:47 PM - Post#303674
In response to palestra38
P38, once again you display your Trump-level bundle of insecurities.
Do you really think anyone gives a sheet about your predictions?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32859
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-08-20 05:51 PM - Post#303676
In response to frank
How a post like that can garner that much of a statement of hatred is beyond me. But in this era, nothing surprised me anymore.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-08-20 06:06 PM - Post#303678
In response to palestra38
Still surprised it took 8 wins with some game teams at the bottom of the table like Cornell and Dartmouth. But that it did.
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LyleGold
PhD Student
Posts: 1712
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-08-20 06:44 PM - Post#303684
In response to frank
P38, once again you display your Trump-level bundle of insecurities.
Do you really think anyone gives a sheet about your predictions?
Wow, where did that come from?
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omegahouse
Freshman
Posts: 84
Reg: 12-06-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-09-20 12:20 AM - Post#303705
In response to LyleGold
Geez, Frank, lighten up already. It’s just a game.......
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-09-20 07:35 AM - Post#303706
In response to omegahouse
Geez, Frank Francis, lighten up already.
FYP
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21247
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-09-20 07:50 AM - Post#303708
In response to TheLine
That’s the fact—Jack.
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13otto
Masters Student
Posts: 779
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-09-20 07:55 AM - Post#303709
In response to mrjames
Still surprised it took 8 wins with some game teams at the bottom of the table like Cornell and Dartmouth. But that it did.
And, had Penn not squandered that late 10-point lead at Yale, it would have taken 9 wins for the Quakers to get in. Entering the final weekend, Penn (7-5) still would have needed to sweep the C's since Brown would have owned the tiebreaker by virtue of its sweep of (first-place) Harvard.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-09-20 10:02 AM - Post#303727
In response to TheLine
That's Psycho to you.
Francis
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2697
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-09-20 10:26 AM - Post#303731
In response to Condor
And Harvard could have won the regular season!
Thanks for nothing guys!
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-09-20 10:32 AM - Post#303733
In response to 13otto
What a world...
Definitely possible when you have three really bad teams to have five teams push the threshold to 9 wins, but two of the three teams at the bottom of the table were picking off a bunch of wins.
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LyleGold
PhD Student
Posts: 1712
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: How Do We Get To 8 Wins?
03-09-20 11:47 AM - Post#303748
In response to mrjames
And the rock bottom team was very unfortunate not to have picked off a couple of the top teams.
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