iogyhufi
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02-03-20 01:32 PM - Post#298474
KenPom has Yale as a 9-point favorite on Friday (72-63). Fun fact: since 2017, Yale has never lost in the postseason to Harvard (2-0) and never beaten them in the regular season (0-6).
Harvard will present a bigger challenge to the Yale offense than most of their recent opponents in no small part because Harvard has personnel that match up well with Yale's (they have a strong defensive center! they won't try to guard Bruner with someone way shorter than he is!). Having said that, Harvard's offense is likely to struggle with Yale's stellar defense. In order to win games, it seems like Harvard's offense needs either an exceptional shooting night from 3 or a huge game from Lewis. Yale has done a good job of limiting both 3P% and opposing centers this year, but we'll have to see how they hold up on Friday
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HARVARDDADGRAD
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02-03-20 09:03 PM - Post#298507
In response to iogyhufi
Yale #2 behind only Gonzaga in College Insider Madmajor poll.!
Harvard drops from #11 to #23
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james
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Re: Harvard
02-04-20 03:27 PM - Post#298541
In response to iogyhufi
couldnt agree more. harvard does match up well.
And the real q is will we see Aiken or not?
i think harvard matches up well without him relative to other Ivies and with him i give them the advantage even with home court.
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iogyhufi
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Re: Harvard
02-04-20 05:49 PM - Post#298551
In response to james
Aiken is definitely an X-factor - but I can't help but remember the last time an All-Ivy 1st-Team guard came back from a protracted foot injury just in the nick of time for a road Harvard-Yale game.
Harvard's style of defense calls for overplaying the passing lanes in order to disrupt dribble handoffs and force steals. This of course leaves one vulnerable to back-door cuts, but Harvard makes up for that by having weak-side help rotate in to take charges and/or having Lewis or Baker rotate in to protect the rim. Steve Donahue and Mitch Henderson both took advantage of this in the early parts of their games against Harvard by playing 5-out, keeping the potential help defenders out of the play and beating Harvard for easy back-door layups over and over and over.
Yale, like Penn, has a very capable big man with the ability to shoot well enough to command respect on the perimeter alongside incredibly strong court vision. It wouldn't surprise me to see Coach Jones use Bruner in much the same way as Donahue used Brodeur in that game at the Palestra.
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james
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02-04-20 06:37 PM - Post#298559
In response to iogyhufi
feel like Bruner prefers playing the stretch 4.
i would like to see him dive more and he showed signs this weekend. actually took his defender off the dribble a few times.
usually, while a great passer, he looks for the open 3 ball or he pushes the ball left or right. i think he handles the ball well but seldom shoots off the dribble.
he needs to go to the rim more and when he does, finish. for whatever reason since coming back from injury he is tentative in the paint.
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james
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02-04-20 06:41 PM - Post#298560
In response to james
having said all this....to your point there is a reason he spreads the floor so well for atkinson by playing 4 out.
i just think yale gives up too much without atkinson posting all the time. but that means Lewis clogs the paint. so there are trade-offs. which is why harvard matches up well.
i didnt see how the 2 p's played harvard though imagine yale resembles princeton more than penn. brodeur is a high post version of atkinson. but thats not the latters strength.
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PennFan10
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02-04-20 09:06 PM - Post#298569
In response to james
Both P's played MTM and didn't double the post. Made Lewis score over Brodeur and RA. They tried to limit 3pt attempts and make Harvard beat them 1 on 1 over a defender. Without Aiken they struggle to do that. When harvard moved the ball they scored more easily it seems.
Yale will probably employ a similar gameplan. Atkinson has been Yale's best player so far and with Yale's length on D, they are tough to score against.
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james
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02-05-20 12:19 PM - Post#298604
In response to PennFan10
fair point on defense. we were discussing offense.
yale has to play lewis 1 on 1 as its strength on strength.
Atkinson scores the most points and has improved his rebounding but Bruner is the best all around player for Yale and his floor spacing enables atkinson as does his passing.
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iogyhufi
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02-05-20 02:59 PM - Post#298628
In response to james
Oh, I'd certainly agree wrt Atkinson - you neutralize your most consistent weapon when you take him out of the post. But it's nice that Yale has options. Atkinson's biggest weapon is his craft, not his strength (as opposed to Lewis, who has essentially no craft but makes up for it by being strong as an ox), so I feel as though he might be able to score a little on Lewis if the guards can get him the ball in good position.
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PennFan10
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02-05-20 03:54 PM - Post#298635
In response to iogyhufi
You can watch Lewis vs AJ and Richmond last week. I don't think Atkinson is any better than either of those 3 bigs who have all faced off this year against each other.
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iogyhufi
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02-05-20 04:49 PM - Post#298639
In response to PennFan10
I'm not sure that I take your point - Brodeur scored an efficient 20 points against Harvard and Aririguoh was quieter, though he did score the most-crucial two points of that game. It's also worth noting that "better" is a relative term. Even though those three bigs are comparable (although fwiw KenPom thinks Atkinson is currently the best player in the IL - better than Brodeur and Aririguzoh), they've got different strengths: Aririguzoh is the quickest and possibly the strongest of the three, Brodeur is the best passer, for example.
(also, odd fact: while looking up Aririguzoh in KP, I noticed that KenPom thinks that Aririguzoh's closest player comparison for this year is...Gabas Maldaunas in 2015. Let us pray that the comparison doesn't extend to game-winners.)
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james
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02-05-20 05:12 PM - Post#298643
In response to iogyhufi
interesting. I dont know where atkinson is without Bruner. His talent is rare as a passer, in particular, and a legit 4 man with a 7'2" wingspan. esp when you factor in his defense.
but atkinson has the best post moves i have seen in a while in the IL. Brodeur does too candidly. very similar. but Brodeur is more complete player. And can play the high post.
Bruner is a cross bt the two but doesnt carry the extreme strengths of either. a hybrid.
Atkinsons go to spin is tough around strength. he doesnt usually go over but around guys the same size. lewis and Arriguzoh make that difficult.
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james
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02-05-20 05:16 PM - Post#298644
In response to james
if atkinson extends his game then KenPom is right. but you likely wouldnt see that until next year when Bruner is gone which will be quite the vaccuum at Yale.
I just think he has excellent post moves/touch and benefits from floor spreading and having a unicorn true 4 (in the IL) as a passer. And he isnt the same defender of Bruner.
I dont think the stats tell the full story.
said another way, who gives up the most at Yale relative to talent? Bruner. he makes it go.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
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Harvard
02-05-20 05:20 PM - Post#298645
In response to iogyhufi
I know I'm biased, but I've been really impressed with Lewis' defense this year. Less fouling and causing opposing Ivy centers to limit shots. Aririzugoh (3-7, Brodeur (6-13) and Knight (4-11 & 4-7) had to work hard to score, shooting 44.7%, almost all shots close in. Lewis also has 11 blocks in 4 Ivy games, easily leading the league.
Lewis will do fine vs Atkinson, wonder if Baker can guard Bruner. Baker was awesome at Lavietes vs Yale last year in Crimson double digit victory with 13pts, 7rbs. Atkinson scored 7 and Bruner scored 5. Baker barely played in Yale II at Yale but Atkinson & Bruner each only scored 6. Baker didn't play much in Tourney Final, but Yale - despite scoring 97pts - didn't rely on Bruner (10pts) and Atkinson (8pts).
Looks like Yale guards did the scoring, at least vs Harvard, last year.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-05-20 05:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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iogyhufi
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Re: Harvard
02-05-20 05:41 PM - Post#298648
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
That's fair, but Yale's scoring in general last year mostly came from its high-usage guards (Copeland, Oni). Honestly, the most bizarre part of this season for me has been how diametrically opposite this year's Yale team is compared to last year's. This year's team is a slow, defensive-minded team that thrives on inside-out play and shoots a ton of threes. Last year's team played super quickly and was a streaky, offense-oriented team that scored best in transition or though isolation plays for its guards.
This year's Yale team is so different from last year's. Yale started Bruner at the 5 last year and that caused them innumerable matchup problems on the defensive end whenever they played teams with strong post-oriented bigs (e.g., Aririguzoh, Lewis) because Bruner wasn't physical enough to guard them and Reynolds wasn't tall enough. Doubling the post isn't a terribly effective defensive strategy when you have to do it every possession. This year, I suspect that that won't be an issue.
Edited by iogyhufi on 02-05-20 05:42 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
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02-05-20 05:45 PM - Post#298650
In response to iogyhufi
Sounds like a strong job of coaching to reflect the talents of the players by coach Jones. Looking forward to this weekend.
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james
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02-05-20 05:55 PM - Post#298652
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
last year yale had a guy named miye oni. This year they dont. And copeland def killed them w the midrange. I actually think Harvard matches up better this year on defense though
Oni never played great vs harvard (except 2016?) but the offense went through him. And it all worked for Harvard until the championship.
this year it goes through Bruner and with good reason given his passing and the high/low game, which is a greater emphasis due to personnel.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
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02-05-20 06:00 PM - Post#298654
In response to james
Interesting matchups.
Atkinson will likely eat up Forbes, and he doesn't shoot away from the basket. Lewis can likely force him out of his range.
Bruner likes to shoot the 3 and is certainly a touch matchup for a 4. I guess Lewis would guard him if Atkinson isn't on the floor. Othwise, it's likely Baker or Djuricic.
Harvard can switch fairly well, as Bassey, Ledlum and Kirkwood are larger and strong for guards. Atkinson and Bruner will be tough matchups for them.
Wonder if Henry Welsh might spend a few minutes keeping Atkinson honest?
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mobrien
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02-05-20 07:45 PM - Post#298663
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Seems like there's a good chance that the Lewis-Atkinson matchup mostly ends up being a wash. In that case, the game would probably come down to two things: which point-forward, Bruner or Kirkwood, has a better game, and which team's role players can knock down more threes.
Considering how flat Harvard came out at the beginning of both games last week, the first five minutes could tell us a lot this week.
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PennFan10
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Re: Harvard
02-05-20 08:42 PM - Post#298666
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I know I'm biased, but I've been really impressed with Lewis' defense this year. Less fouling and causing opposing Ivy centers to limit shots. Aririzugoh (3-7, Brodeur (6-13) and Knight (4-11 & 4-7) had to work hard to score, shooting 44.7%, almost all shots close in. Lewis also has 11 blocks in 4 Ivy games, easily leading the league.
Lewis will do fine vs Atkinson, wonder if Baker can guard Bruner. Baker was awesome at Lavietes vs Yale last year in Crimson double digit victory with 13pts, 7rbs. Atkinson scored 7 and Bruner scored 5. Baker barely played in Yale II at Yale but Atkinson & Bruner each only scored 6. Baker didn't play much in Tourney Final, but Yale - despite scoring 97pts - didn't rely on Bruner (10pts) and Atkinson (8pts).
Looks like Yale guards did the scoring, at least vs Harvard, last year.
You are biased, but I agree. Lewis has been a monster on defense for longer stretches this year. Best I have seen him in a couple years. He will give Atkinson all he can handle.
Atkinson is a totally different player this year from last. He is much more aggressive and, as has been mentioned, is taking many more shots that previously went to Oni.
Atkinson is in the group with those other bigs, he isn't better. Maybe he'll end up better but he should get going if his 4 year numbers are going to anywhere in close to AJ's.
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iogyhufi
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Re: Harvard
02-05-20 09:01 PM - Post#298667
In response to PennFan10
The fact that AJ Brodeur has been a massively high-usage player his whole career whereas Atkinson has not does not necessarily make Brodeur a better player at this juncture. I wouldn't say that Atkinson is better necessarily as a player, however we want to define that, but he's probably had a better season thus far than has Brodeur.
EDIT: Let me revise "probably" to "plausibly;" upon looking at the stats again, I think I overstated Atkinson's case initially.
Edited by iogyhufi on 02-05-20 09:05 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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james
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02-05-20 09:49 PM - Post#298669
In response to iogyhufi
Brodeur has been the go to player on his team for 4 years. He is the center of the offense a point center if you will
And he has had a great career.
Atkinson is the best finisher on Yale. He is not the mvp. even this year. He leads Yale in scoring and isn’t close in rebounding assists blocks and isn’t the defender of bruner who leads Yale and the ivy in 2 of those other categories
Kenpom is wrong
Brodeur is a better player and he is one year older
#%$@ penn
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iogyhufi
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02-05-20 10:15 PM - Post#298671
In response to james
Bleh, this is what makes "better" conversations hard. Brodeur isn't a particularly efficient scorer, but then Penn asks him for volume, not efficiency. He's also absolutely more integral to his team than Atkinson is. Yet Atkinson is an extraordinarily efficient finisher around the rim. Who's better may really depend on what a team needs. If we want to define better as "who's more capable of being 'the man' on a team," then yes, it's Brodeur and it's not that close. If Atkinson had to be the primary creator like Brodeur is, Yale would be substantially worse than they are. Fortunately, Yale has the luxury of Bruner and Monroe to handle those duties.
I will confess myself to being biased, since I've never been a huge fan of Brodeur's post game (I'm sure he's taken shots with his left hand, but Lord knows I can't remember any specific instances off the top of my head), but I suppose I should take my homer glasses off for a second and acknowledge that you can't argue with results *grumble grumble*.
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Mike Porter
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Harvard
02-06-20 04:26 AM - Post#298673
In response to iogyhufi
Huge AJ fan as a Penn fan, so I’d argue him best overall player, BUT I think all these guys are fantastic college bigs. As an Ivy fan in general you have to marvel at how many really #%$@ good bigs this senior class has... Brodeur, Lewis, Bruner, Aririguzoh, and I’d even throw in Baker and Tape if he has stayed at Columbia in the mix. That’s 6 players all 6’8 or taller across 5 teams in an 8 team league and every one of them has the skills, size and athleticism to play at a power school. I’d guess it will be a while until we have a class of bigs this good again.
P.S. this will be good news for Yale with Atkinson next year because it will be a much clearer path in the post in league games.
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iogyhufi
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Re: Harvard
02-07-20 02:16 PM - Post#298812
In response to Mike Porter
I'm told that there's a substantial security presence at PWG today (apparently athletics is worried about a repeat of what happened at The Game), so if you're planning on attending, I'd allow a little extra time.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
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02-07-20 02:35 PM - Post#298822
In response to iogyhufi
League POY will be tough, and I can see why it often goes to the 'best' player on the 'best' team.
Brodeur is more important to Penn than likely any player is to his team in this league. Next likely is possibly Boeheim and Cornell.
Atkinson is part of a balanced attack on a good but not deep team.
Harvard's MVP is Towns ... I mean Aiken ... I mean Lewis or, maybe, Bassey or Kirkwood.
Princeton fans may argue for Aririzugoh or even Llewellyn, but Princeton was 1-7 with those two but not Schweiger. On the other hand, without Aririzugoh Princeton could be 1-3 in this league.
0-4 Columbia would have to redistribute 20+ shots without Smith, but the results would be the same.
Boeheim is important, but 0-4 Cornell isn't, same for Dartmouth.
Brown is too balanced for this discussion.
Thus, I believe that POY is likely the center on the regular season champion. Only Brodeur has a shot even if Penn isn't the regular season champion.
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james
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02-07-20 06:52 PM - Post#298877
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
U know it’s a rivalry game when Robert baker turns into an all world player at 7’
brutal
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Chip Bayers
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02-07-20 07:04 PM - Post#298880
In response to james
Bruner having a very bad game so far.
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iogyhufi
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02-07-20 10:12 PM - Post#298931
In response to Chip Bayers
Some thoughts:
Well I, for one, love how Harvard can look abysmal for 4 consecutive games and then all of a sudden they get 30 points combined from Djuricic and Baker.
Yale was sloppy on defense early and let Harvard get hot. Can't ever do that against a good team and expect to get away with it.
Harvard hit a TON of tough, tough shots in the 8:00-4:00 window to keep Yale at bay; if Amaker hadn't very unwisely tried to put it in the cooler too early, that probably would've been enough.
Atkinson missed 6 FTs, Yale lost by 1. Sigh.
Bruner played by far his worst game this year. Getting blocked by Danilo Djuricic *twice* should never happen to a player of his talent level.
To respond to HDG from the other thread, I don't know if I'd say Yale got *exposed*, per se. This is how Yale usually looks - they'll get contributions from somewhere, but it's not always the same place. Unfortunately the supporting cast all had bad games on the same night.
Atkinson made Lewis look bad and Forbes look putrid. Aside from the FTs, his only really disappointing play came early on when Harvard played Baker at the 5 and he got lost, leading to a couple of threes.
I'm not convinced that, sans Aiken, Harvard is capable of playing much better on aggregate than that. Sure Ledlum and Lewis were bad, but you're not getting production like that from Baker and Djuricic most nights.
Yale learned the lesson that Harvard had learned last weekend: maybe don't spot your opponents 15 points if you wanna win.
Ah well, you weren't gonna win them all anyway. On to Dartmouth.
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iogyhufi
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02-07-20 10:13 PM - Post#298932
In response to iogyhufi
Also, the 4 minute review at the end was so terribly frustrating. Really wish the NCAA would do something about those.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
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02-07-20 10:32 PM - Post#298934
In response to iogyhufi
Good observations. Very much on point. As I"ve been saying, this is going to be a crazy year. No team is that good. Each has it's own flaws and each has its own ceiling. Depends what shows up each night.
Yes, Atkinson dominated Lewis and Forbes, but Baker did a nice job on Bruner.
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iogyhufi
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02-08-20 12:04 AM - Post#298942
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
No doubt, Baker very much outplayed Bruner tonight. Harvard's depth is a huge asset in no small part because Harvard has 8-9 guys who can score on any given night, so even . Yale on the other hand has 3? 4? They really really need all their starters to play well on any given night, because help isn't coming from the bench most nights. If Cotton could find a little more consistency, that'd be huge for Yale. As it is, they really need to play highly superior defense in order to keep the totals down enough for their offense to be able to score what they need to.
Fortunately, they've been able to do so in most of their games thus far, but when they don't, they've got trouble.
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james
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02-09-20 10:20 AM - Post#299166
In response to iogyhufi
Bruner is limping around in a knee brace and on the bench for Dartmouth. Something wasn’t right. Hope for his sake it isn’t #5.
he hasn’t been steady in the post in 2 weeks.Think it’s the knee.
Prayers to him.
Harvard has their number except when it matters. The ball stuck too much in Yale’s offense.
Oh and yea all the IL experts are now saying Yale isn’t dominant. After there was no chance they make tourney 2 mos ago. Then they should have an at large bid and run through the league.
The quant nerds either don’t watch the games or don’t get nuance. Yale was and is a flawed team as is every IL team at the top.
Yale will be severely impacted with an impaired bruner though Wyatt yess and even alausa are fine IL talents.
Bruner has looked uncertain inside since he sat out the last d3 game. Now watching him limp in the brace in the Dartmouth handshake line is no bueno.
I give my fellow Yale homer credit for calling Atkinson. what he did to Lewis was criminal. Pure abuse. Though not doubling was the right decision bc harvard held Yale down from 3 and won the game.
If he relearns to hit foul shouts swains free throw doesn’t matter.
On that note cheers to the refs on the 4 minute stoppage. Class.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
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02-09-20 12:12 PM - Post#299189
In response to james
Horrible news about Bruner. Not surprised. Bruner definitely wasn't at 100% on Friday, even before he went down late in the game. Scary that he returned to finish Friday night's game but ended up sidelined the next night. Hope he didn't do additional damage.
For what's its worth, when evaluating an injury I look at who gets to play that didn't before. It isn't about the backup, but the delta between the minutes injured player and the guy off the bench who otherwise wouldn't have those minutes. For me, it's not just that Juzang is playing more, but without Aiken last night Harvard had to use freshmen Sakota and Tretout for 9 minutes in a 1 point game.
Hoping for a speedy recovery to all.
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bradley
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02-09-20 06:18 PM - Post#299332
In response to james
[quote= Oh and yea all the IL experts are now saying Yale isn’t dominant. After there was no chance they make tourney 2 mos ago. Then they should have an at large bid and run through the league.
The quant nerds either don’t watch the games or don’t get nuance. Yale was and is a flawed team as is every IL team at the top.
I remember your comments to suggest that the coronation of Yale as IL champs was not in touch with reality and obviously premature. Any team that loses Oni, Copeland, Reynolds and Phils will not be the same team unless some brilliant freshmen walked thru the door. Yale has 3 very good players and a good scorer off the bench with an outstanding coach but there are holes as you suggest and clearly a lack of depth.
For Yale to be where they are says a lot about Coach Jones but the suggestion that Yale would be a dominant team in the IL seemed like a huge stretch. If they are, it might say more about the league vs. Yale.
Who wins the regular season is an unknown as there is no dominant team. Perhaps, a team with a few good seniors may have the edge plus avoiding injuries. It would be ironic if Brown pulls off a miracle and somehow wins the regular season and then gets knocked out in IvyMadness - the irony.
Even with Bruner's injury, Coach Jones will keep them in the hunt.
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mrjames
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02-10-20 02:35 PM - Post#299413
In response to james
Oh and yea all the IL experts are now saying Yale isn’t dominant. After there was no chance they make tourney 2 mos ago. Then they should have an at large bid and run through the league.
The quant nerds either don’t watch the games or don’t get nuance. Yale was and is a flawed team as is every IL team at the top.
I can’t tell if you are deliberately misconstruing what people are saying to make an argument or if you actually believe that’s what you’ve read.
When it comes to the at large bid arguments, I know I’ve made them, but based on where they were in the moment and what they’d have to do to get there. Yale has never been better than 50-50 to do what it would take (at least 13-1 reg season) ultimately to meet that mark, but it’s just a matter of fact to discuss where their resume was in the moment and what it would take to keep their resume there.
I think we (the quant nerds, I guess) have been clear on what the flaws of this team were - namely that their defense is good to great but only appears elite right now due to jumper luck. Ivy teams will hit threes at a high rate against them and make that defense look less stellar. Yale also isn’t deep, and if this Bruner thing is real, it’ll take some real James Jones magic (or carnage behind Yale) to stay on top.
Yale has dramatically outperformed expectation this year, but as its defense regresses, it won’t be such a crazy outperformance. Two months ago, Harvard had Bryce back playing well and still expected Towns back. Of course Yale’s odds were low in the face of playing that team on the road in the tourney. Not sure why that would be such a surprising change...?
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iogyhufi
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02-10-20 03:10 PM - Post#299425
In response to mrjames
Can't speak for James but I definitely remember hearing before the season started from at least some people (don't believe you were one, but Torvik was wrt "quant nerd" representation) that Yale wouldn't even make / was unlikely to make the Ivy League Tournament. Despite the production Yale lost, they still brought back three legitimate starter caliber players, two of whom had produced at All-Ivy levels before the season started (i.e., Bruner and Swain), so I wouldn't think that that claim ought to be considered free from criticism.
The claim that d3P% is close to a crap shoot is, shall we say, not one that any basketball player or coach with whom I've ever spoken would agree. What most will say is that the degree to which three-pointers are contested will affect the percentage. Further, they'll say that stalwart shot-contesting early is likely to make shooters miss relatively easier shots later in the game because they haven't "found their range" yet. I'm sure there's plenty of data to support your hypothesis (and the plural of anecdote is not data of course), but I must confess that this particular idea isn't one that I can see terribly easily.
(the above is not to say that the concept of shot luck doesn't exist in the Luddite basketball world - if I had a dollar for every time I've heard "we gotta tip our hats to them, they made some tough shots today," I could afford the rent on a neutral venue for the Ivy League Tournament. But I've definitely seen in film sessions/heard from coaches that "he doesn't make the tough ones later if you don't give him [X wide-open shot] now." And defensive positioning/discipline is definitely in control of the defense!)
Please do let me know if I've misunderstood anything; this is mostly just my take on this whole idea and less of a response, but I'd prefer to keep my facts straight 
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
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Harvard
02-10-20 03:19 PM - Post#299428
In response to mrjames
How about what appears to be the fact that Bruner might have been injured going into this weekend.
If you look at predictions going into the season:
1. Harvard (134) - assumed Aiken and Towns playing;
2. Penn (115) - assumed Wang and Betley were healthy, and possibly Charles, Williams, Mujakowski
3. Yale (94) - Yale was healthy until this weekend (Bruner)
4. Princeton (88) - Schweiger is back, Barnes
Gladson, & Kyle aren't
5. Brown (62) - Gainey has returned, Mawanda-Kalema wasn't expectd to
6. Columbia (51) - no Tape and no Stefanini yet, Ellis missing, Turner returned
7. Cornell (33) - expected to be missing Gear and Harshany
8. Dartmouth (33) - expected to be without Barry, Krystowiak still not returned
Essentially, Harvard took a major hit, losing possibly the best two players in the league. Penn did not expect to be without Want or Betley. Bruner is a big problem for Yale, and possibly explains Friday night's loss. Princeton improved dramatically once Schwieger returned. Brown and Cornell are healthy, and Columbia is decimated while Dartmouth misses Barry greatly. Gainey means a lot to Brown's defense, thus their upward trajectory. So, Harvard, Penn & Yale have dropped closer to Princeton and Brown, while Brown has improved with Gainey. Columbia is no longer a contender and dropped to languishing with Dartmouth and Cornell.
I see consistency in analysis, but changes in personnel.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-10-20 03:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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iogyhufi
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Re: Harvard
02-10-20 03:40 PM - Post#299437
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Oh, also as regards the Bruner injury, it looks like Bruner and Coach Jones are optimistic about the timeline there: https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2020/02/09/mens- bas...
Semi-relatedly, hats off to Will McCormack, the YDN's beat writer for men's basketball. He's produced a lot of consistently stellar articles about the team in his time on the beat.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
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Harvard
02-10-20 04:04 PM - Post#299438
In response to iogyhufi
Good news about Bruner, although I maintain that he wasn't at full strength the entire night, not just after he fell.
Article is a little concerning though, knee pain is not like a bruise.
“His range of motion is better than it was last night,†Jones said. “I don’t know that you feel better if there’s something wrong. Normally if there’s something wrong, you just feel bad until you get it fixed. The fact that he feels better is great, and I spoke to him today, and he felt like he was going to have to tolerate some pain but he thought he’d be able to play this weekend, but we’ll see. It’s a day to day thing, but we’ll see and hopefully guys can step up and play when they’re needed.â€
Scary how Seth Towns was in pain for almost two years before doctors figured out what it was.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-10-20 04:05 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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bradley
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02-10-20 07:18 PM - Post#299470
In response to iogyhufi
I philosophically agree with the points made by both James and you.
There is certainly an element of randomness/luck in BB -- relevant to a particular shot, or particular quarter shooting percentage and in fewer cases, the entire game. One only has to look at FT%s to see a certain level of randomness, i.e. the Tiger's poor defense on FT shots both in non-conference and conference games this year but far more important is how effective are teams in contesting shots. James is correct as to being able to watch games and see who contests shots and takes open shots. Anyone who has played the game at a competitive level knows the difference as to the effect of good defense on shooting percentages.
I remember in Princeton's undefeated season, I would simply count the number of contested vs. uncontested shots for both teams and Princeton held a significant edge over opponents and shooting percentages were obviously effected. The clearest example is this year's Tiger's women team and as Werner Wolf would state "Go to the videotape" and it is not a function of random bad luck by their opponents regarding their very low shooting percentages in addition to turnovers.
Looking at many of Yale's games this year suggested that Coach Jones and his team did a remarkable job but this year's teams talent level based on watching games was very different than last year's team.
Statistics/analytics are a supplement but I will take the word of knowledgeable basketball junkie any day of the week. Analytics are often looking in the rear view mirror trying to predict the future and not everything stays the same over time.
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welcometothejungle
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Harvard
02-11-20 12:31 AM - Post#299496
In response to bradley
I don't think there's really a basketball coaches vs. stats nerds distinction here. There are definitely coaches who base their defensive systems on not playing the 3 point lottery. MH's Princeton teams, along with SD's Penn teams are always pretty stingy with 3pt attempts compared to the national average, which I think would be evidence that those coaches seek to limit attempts in an effort to not even play the 3 point lottery if they can afford to. That's not to say either of them would say their defense has no control over those shots, but I think they would agree that the defense has less control over perimeter shots than other shots.
Looking at Princeton's 3pt defense this season is an interesting example.
From the start of the season to December 10, Princeton was allowing opponents to hit 44% of their 3s. In that time span that ranks 352nd out of 353 D1 teams.
http://barttorvik.com/?sort=19&begin=20 191101&...
From December 11th to today, Princeton is allowing opponents to hit 27% of their 3s, which ranks 7th in the country in that time span.
http://barttorvik.com/?year=2020&sort=1 9&l...
Sure, the Tigers' defense has improved, but did Princeton's defense improve that much halfway through the season to jump 345 spots? I'd say there's probably some element of randomness to both numbers, and that Princeton's true defensive quality is probably around average, as it was throughout the season.
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bradley
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Re: Harvard
02-11-20 08:31 AM - Post#299507
In response to welcometothejungle
As I said, there is an element of randomness but quality of defense/ contested shots is far more determinate of shooting percentages and yes, the Tigers have played much better defense as many Tiger fans have noted since Penn watching games.
If randomness is such a prevailing factor, how come the Tiger women have not experienced???? Luck or contested shots -- a bit of luck but a lot of contested shots.
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james
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02-11-20 10:11 AM - Post#299520
In response to bradley
it’s pretty simple. I am taking the broad consensus of what I read. It’s not scientific. But it’s some element of reading comprehension. Nothing more. Nothing less. Of course the limitation is said interpretation is limited to the characters in a message board. I feel good about my ability to do so. I am capable and hopefully my literature professors would agree. Thanks Yale.
Now leveraging my mba; Statistics are inherently backward looking. Yes they can be a predictor of trend. But one. There are many qualitative inputs obviously and they are ever changing esp when factoring in the competitive set. You can’t predict the success of a lineup solely by what it did last year. I think we can all agree on that. And yes losing 4 starters makes this more difficult when you don’t know the personel well to begin with.
So how do I do it? Well I am a program insider as a basketball alum so I hear and see things (practice occasionally). And I watch a lot of Yale games. I feel strongly bruner has been up until last weekend Yale’s most impt player. He has struggled all year with confidence in his knee as he did last year albeit a bit less. This was manifested in tougher play against bigger and better competition year over year even in the post.
This introduces some real problems should at best it be a nagging problem. When you have 4 surgeries in 2 years it becomes metaphysical. anyway you see it in bruner in the post this year vs his freshman year. And certainly you did last year most acutely. Where are we on the spectrum now?
yess and alausa are talented but limited vis a vis bruner. It just is what it is.
it probably matters the most if the competition doubles Atkinson. Harvard didn’t and given their size adv they really limited Yale’s open 3 point looks. Now the ball stuck but I think one on one matchups had something to do with it.
So Harvard traded atkinsons efficiency for limiting the team. I probably would’ve schemed the same bc I would be scared of bruner and would play the matchups. And unlike my friend on here I would’ve assumed Lewis would be more effective 1 on 1
As it was good job amaker. It worked. In part bc bruner wasn’t himself and couldn’t dunk an open bunny. that play undermines the bullish Yale thesis going forward as we haven’t seen that this year.
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mrjames
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Re: Harvard
02-11-20 10:16 AM - Post#299522
In response to bradley
I bristle at this notion that there is some kind of war between "stats nerds" and "coaches" - for a variety of reasons. First, I wouldn't call what empiricists in basketball are doing today being a "stats nerd." To me, that's someone that memorizes and can recite all of the stats off the back of a baseball card. The deeper level of information available today (especially at the professional and major D1 level) has unearthed truths that are literally changing the way in which the game is played. And that is happening because analysts/data scientists/whatever you want to call them aren't viewed as the wonks in the corner, but a true partner in separating fact from fiction, signal from noise.
In 2010, the 3PT rate (ratio of 3PA to total FGA) was 22% in the NBA. The highest individual team was at 35%. Today, the average is 38% and the lowest team is at 31% - only seven teams are below the league-leader from just a decade ago. While the move hasn't been as pronouced, in college basketball the average 3PT rate in 2010 was 32% and there were 33 teams at or above 40%. By last season, the average 3PT rate had risen to 39% and 142 teams were at or above 40% (prompting the NCAA to push back the line, which has had a trivial impact).
Teams are doing this for a specific reason - namely, that they realize the defense can't do much to stop them from taking a three if they really want to and those looks, mathematically, are worth more than the looks that they'll get elsewhere. The reason defenses can't impact the opponents' 3PT shooting percentage isn't because they aren't contesting enough shots. Contesting shots does lower make rates even at the highest levels of the game. BUT, the opponents can take whichever shots they want, so what contesting shots actually does is to lower 3PT rates (3PTers taken) not the actual make rates.
That's the misconception about 3PT defense. It's not that a defense can't defend the 3PT line - it's that you won't see that success or failure manifest itself through the make rates, but rather through the take rates. Take rates are the second-most controllable item for the offense and third-most for the defense (on a relative scale the control is about 70/30 offensive).
When it comes to the actual make rates, 3PT shooting percentages are the second-least controllable element of the game on aggregate for the defense and the least controllable on aggregate for the offense. On a relative scale, the offense controls over 80% of 3PTer make rates, but there's very little there that is controllable to fight over.
That's why 3PT shot outcomes are seen as a lottery, but the rate of 3PTers taken is decidedly not.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Re: Harvard
02-11-20 10:20 AM - Post#299525
In response to welcometothejungle
Oh, I'm not saying that there can't possibly be luck involved (although I do think Princeton is playing better D now than they were before). But my impression is that mrjames' position is that d3P% is mostly luck, which I'm willing to be convinced of, but am skeptical about.
Penn's style of defense is meant to limit both threes and layups. The grounding idea for this is not that one might get unlucky from 3 but that, ceteris paribus, threes and layups are the highest-yield shots an offense can take, so if you really sell out to contest threes (like by jumping at the shooter every time he so much as catches on the perimeter) and have a good rim protector waiting underneath, the offense will probably take more long 2s, which are analytically low-yield shots.
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iogyhufi
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Re: Harvard
02-11-20 10:23 AM - Post#299526
In response to iogyhufi
Oops, missed mrjames' response when I posted. Hmm, I'll have to think about that one.
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james
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02-11-20 11:15 AM - Post#299533
In response to iogyhufi
I am not interested in a war with the quants. I am merely pointing out the predictive flaws thus far (can change)to the extent it was solely informing preseason predictions. But who knows what happens from here if the competitive set changes.
and not sure you shld take it personal in that not sure i am aiming solely at your posts, at least not intentionally except where called out.
I think it is interesting data and to your point, there is more and better data now and it absolutely should be used.
Its an interesting point you make on the 3 point data. i must let it sink in a bit though it stands to reason that defense is more preventative from an effectiveness perspective.
in yales case i also agree ( you have made this point) that rim protection enhances their 3pt defense to this end. Obviously that is all in doubt now for yale pending Bruners status bc they take a massive step down in this regard if he cant go or is limited from here.
i suppose that would be example of marrying the qualitative and the quantitative.
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