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Username Post: Harvard        (Topic#23908)
iogyhufi 
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
02-03-20 01:32 PM - Post#298474    

KenPom has Yale as a 9-point favorite on Friday (72-63). Fun fact: since 2017, Yale has never lost in the postseason to Harvard (2-0) and never beaten them in the regular season (0-6).

Harvard will present a bigger challenge to the Yale offense than most of their recent opponents in no small part because Harvard has personnel that match up well with Yale's (they have a strong defensive center! they won't try to guard Bruner with someone way shorter than he is!). Having said that, Harvard's offense is likely to struggle with Yale's stellar defense. In order to win games, it seems like Harvard's offense needs either an exceptional shooting night from 3 or a huge game from Lewis. Yale has done a good job of limiting both 3P% and opposing centers this year, but we'll have to see how they hold up on Friday

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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02-03-20 09:03 PM - Post#298507    
    In response to iogyhufi

Yale #2 behind only Gonzaga in College Insider Madmajor poll.!

Harvard drops from #11 to #23

 
james 
Masters Student
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Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
Re: Harvard
02-04-20 03:27 PM - Post#298541    
    In response to iogyhufi

couldnt agree more. harvard does match up well.

And the real q is will we see Aiken or not?

i think harvard matches up well without him relative to other Ivies and with him i give them the advantage even with home court.

 
iogyhufi 
Masters Student
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
Re: Harvard
02-04-20 05:49 PM - Post#298551    
    In response to james

Aiken is definitely an X-factor - but I can't help but remember the last time an All-Ivy 1st-Team guard came back from a protracted foot injury just in the nick of time for a road Harvard-Yale game.

Harvard's style of defense calls for overplaying the passing lanes in order to disrupt dribble handoffs and force steals. This of course leaves one vulnerable to back-door cuts, but Harvard makes up for that by having weak-side help rotate in to take charges and/or having Lewis or Baker rotate in to protect the rim. Steve Donahue and Mitch Henderson both took advantage of this in the early parts of their games against Harvard by playing 5-out, keeping the potential help defenders out of the play and beating Harvard for easy back-door layups over and over and over.

Yale, like Penn, has a very capable big man with the ability to shoot well enough to command respect on the perimeter alongside incredibly strong court vision. It wouldn't surprise me to see Coach Jones use Bruner in much the same way as Donahue used Brodeur in that game at the Palestra.

 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
02-04-20 06:37 PM - Post#298559    
    In response to iogyhufi

feel like Bruner prefers playing the stretch 4.

i would like to see him dive more and he showed signs this weekend. actually took his defender off the dribble a few times.

usually, while a great passer, he looks for the open 3 ball or he pushes the ball left or right. i think he handles the ball well but seldom shoots off the dribble.

he needs to go to the rim more and when he does, finish. for whatever reason since coming back from injury he is tentative in the paint.

 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
02-04-20 06:41 PM - Post#298560    
    In response to james

having said all this....to your point there is a reason he spreads the floor so well for atkinson by playing 4 out.

i just think yale gives up too much without atkinson posting all the time. but that means Lewis clogs the paint. so there are trade-offs. which is why harvard matches up well.

i didnt see how the 2 p's played harvard though imagine yale resembles princeton more than penn. brodeur is a high post version of atkinson. but thats not the latters strength.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
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Reg: 02-15-15
02-04-20 09:06 PM - Post#298569    
    In response to james

Both P's played MTM and didn't double the post. Made Lewis score over Brodeur and RA. They tried to limit 3pt attempts and make Harvard beat them 1 on 1 over a defender. Without Aiken they struggle to do that. When harvard moved the ball they scored more easily it seems.

Yale will probably employ a similar gameplan. Atkinson has been Yale's best player so far and with Yale's length on D, they are tough to score against.

 
james 
Masters Student
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Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
02-05-20 12:19 PM - Post#298604    
    In response to PennFan10

fair point on defense. we were discussing offense.

yale has to play lewis 1 on 1 as its strength on strength.

Atkinson scores the most points and has improved his rebounding but Bruner is the best all around player for Yale and his floor spacing enables atkinson as does his passing.





 
iogyhufi 
Masters Student
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
02-05-20 02:59 PM - Post#298628    
    In response to james

Oh, I'd certainly agree wrt Atkinson - you neutralize your most consistent weapon when you take him out of the post. But it's nice that Yale has options. Atkinson's biggest weapon is his craft, not his strength (as opposed to Lewis, who has essentially no craft but makes up for it by being strong as an ox), so I feel as though he might be able to score a little on Lewis if the guards can get him the ball in good position.

 
PennFan10 
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02-05-20 03:54 PM - Post#298635    
    In response to iogyhufi

You can watch Lewis vs AJ and Richmond last week. I don't think Atkinson is any better than either of those 3 bigs who have all faced off this year against each other.

 
iogyhufi 
Masters Student
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
02-05-20 04:49 PM - Post#298639    
    In response to PennFan10

I'm not sure that I take your point - Brodeur scored an efficient 20 points against Harvard and Aririguoh was quieter, though he did score the most-crucial two points of that game. It's also worth noting that "better" is a relative term. Even though those three bigs are comparable (although fwiw KenPom thinks Atkinson is currently the best player in the IL - better than Brodeur and Aririguzoh), they've got different strengths: Aririguzoh is the quickest and possibly the strongest of the three, Brodeur is the best passer, for example.

(also, odd fact: while looking up Aririguzoh in KP, I noticed that KenPom thinks that Aririguzoh's closest player comparison for this year is...Gabas Maldaunas in 2015. Let us pray that the comparison doesn't extend to game-winners.)

 
james 
Masters Student
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Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
02-05-20 05:12 PM - Post#298643    
    In response to iogyhufi

interesting. I dont know where atkinson is without Bruner. His talent is rare as a passer, in particular, and a legit 4 man with a 7'2" wingspan. esp when you factor in his defense.

but atkinson has the best post moves i have seen in a while in the IL. Brodeur does too candidly. very similar. but Brodeur is more complete player. And can play the high post.

Bruner is a cross bt the two but doesnt carry the extreme strengths of either. a hybrid.


Atkinsons go to spin is tough around strength. he doesnt usually go over but around guys the same size. lewis and Arriguzoh make that difficult.



 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
02-05-20 05:16 PM - Post#298644    
    In response to james

if atkinson extends his game then KenPom is right. but you likely wouldnt see that until next year when Bruner is gone which will be quite the vaccuum at Yale.

I just think he has excellent post moves/touch and benefits from floor spreading and having a unicorn true 4 (in the IL) as a passer. And he isnt the same defender of Bruner.

I dont think the stats tell the full story.

said another way, who gives up the most at Yale relative to talent? Bruner. he makes it go.



 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Harvard
02-05-20 05:20 PM - Post#298645    
    In response to iogyhufi

I know I'm biased, but I've been really impressed with Lewis' defense this year. Less fouling and causing opposing Ivy centers to limit shots. Aririzugoh (3-7, Brodeur (6-13) and Knight (4-11 & 4-7) had to work hard to score, shooting 44.7%, almost all shots close in. Lewis also has 11 blocks in 4 Ivy games, easily leading the league.

Lewis will do fine vs Atkinson, wonder if Baker can guard Bruner. Baker was awesome at Lavietes vs Yale last year in Crimson double digit victory with 13pts, 7rbs. Atkinson scored 7 and Bruner scored 5. Baker barely played in Yale II at Yale but Atkinson & Bruner each only scored 6. Baker didn't play much in Tourney Final, but Yale - despite scoring 97pts - didn't rely on Bruner (10pts) and Atkinson (8pts).

Looks like Yale guards did the scoring, at least vs Harvard, last year.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-05-20 05:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
iogyhufi 
Masters Student
Posts: 679

Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
Re: Harvard
02-05-20 05:41 PM - Post#298648    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

That's fair, but Yale's scoring in general last year mostly came from its high-usage guards (Copeland, Oni). Honestly, the most bizarre part of this season for me has been how diametrically opposite this year's Yale team is compared to last year's. This year's team is a slow, defensive-minded team that thrives on inside-out play and shoots a ton of threes. Last year's team played super quickly and was a streaky, offense-oriented team that scored best in transition or though isolation plays for its guards.

This year's Yale team is so different from last year's. Yale started Bruner at the 5 last year and that caused them innumerable matchup problems on the defensive end whenever they played teams with strong post-oriented bigs (e.g., Aririguzoh, Lewis) because Bruner wasn't physical enough to guard them and Reynolds wasn't tall enough. Doubling the post isn't a terribly effective defensive strategy when you have to do it every possession. This year, I suspect that that won't be an issue.

Edited by iogyhufi on 02-05-20 05:42 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-05-20 05:45 PM - Post#298650    
    In response to iogyhufi

Sounds like a strong job of coaching to reflect the talents of the players by coach Jones. Looking forward to this weekend.

 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
02-05-20 05:55 PM - Post#298652    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

last year yale had a guy named miye oni. This year they dont. And copeland def killed them w the midrange. I actually think Harvard matches up better this year on defense though

Oni never played great vs harvard (except 2016?) but the offense went through him. And it all worked for Harvard until the championship.

this year it goes through Bruner and with good reason given his passing and the high/low game, which is a greater emphasis due to personnel.



 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-05-20 06:00 PM - Post#298654    
    In response to james

Interesting matchups.
Atkinson will likely eat up Forbes, and he doesn't shoot away from the basket. Lewis can likely force him out of his range.

Bruner likes to shoot the 3 and is certainly a touch matchup for a 4. I guess Lewis would guard him if Atkinson isn't on the floor. Othwise, it's likely Baker or Djuricic.

Harvard can switch fairly well, as Bassey, Ledlum and Kirkwood are larger and strong for guards. Atkinson and Bruner will be tough matchups for them.

Wonder if Henry Welsh might spend a few minutes keeping Atkinson honest?



 
mobrien 
Senior
Posts: 390

Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
02-05-20 07:45 PM - Post#298663    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Seems like there's a good chance that the Lewis-Atkinson matchup mostly ends up being a wash. In that case, the game would probably come down to two things: which point-forward, Bruner or Kirkwood, has a better game, and which team's role players can knock down more threes.

Considering how flat Harvard came out at the beginning of both games last week, the first five minutes could tell us a lot this week.



 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
Re: Harvard
02-05-20 08:42 PM - Post#298666    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
I know I'm biased, but I've been really impressed with Lewis' defense this year. Less fouling and causing opposing Ivy centers to limit shots. Aririzugoh (3-7, Brodeur (6-13) and Knight (4-11 & 4-7) had to work hard to score, shooting 44.7%, almost all shots close in. Lewis also has 11 blocks in 4 Ivy games, easily leading the league.

Lewis will do fine vs Atkinson, wonder if Baker can guard Bruner. Baker was awesome at Lavietes vs Yale last year in Crimson double digit victory with 13pts, 7rbs. Atkinson scored 7 and Bruner scored 5. Baker barely played in Yale II at Yale but Atkinson & Bruner each only scored 6. Baker didn't play much in Tourney Final, but Yale - despite scoring 97pts - didn't rely on Bruner (10pts) and Atkinson (8pts).

Looks like Yale guards did the scoring, at least vs Harvard, last year.



You are biased, but I agree. Lewis has been a monster on defense for longer stretches this year. Best I have seen him in a couple years. He will give Atkinson all he can handle.

Atkinson is a totally different player this year from last. He is much more aggressive and, as has been mentioned, is taking many more shots that previously went to Oni.

Atkinson is in the group with those other bigs, he isn't better. Maybe he'll end up better but he should get going if his 4 year numbers are going to anywhere in close to AJ's.


 
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