mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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02-07-20 11:14 PM - Post#298938
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
There’s been a debate about how real Yale’s defense is, given that they’ve been pretty lucky with 3PT and 2PT jumper percentages against, and the answer is not as real as the numbers suggest.
At least not against shooting bigs.
I was impressed, especially in the second half when their defensive intensity went way up, with how tightly they were guarding guys on the perimeter, and how quickly they were running guys off the three point line. They can afford to play that aggressive because of the shot blocking behind them. So that part is very real. The thing is, though, Bruner and Atkinson aren’t as comfortable on the permitted and can lose shooters at times. Baker and Djuricic we’re getting good looks all night. It certainly was the case tonight, and very could be in the future that that’s the key matchup. In any case, we shot 42% from three and 60% from two.
Forbes is getting close to playing himself out of the rotation. He gave us good minutes against Penn, but he hasn’t been strong enough to stop Ariruguzoh or Atkinson the last two games. It’s been an automatic foul, basket, or both. I might rather play Catchings, who I don’t understand isn’t playing, over Forbes. Those guys can easily shoot over Catchings, but he has the bulk to keep them off their spots and make them finish tougher looks.
Juzang was masterful running the show for us. Clutch free throws too. Kirkwood needs to keep working at that...
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-08-20 01:25 AM - Post#298947
In response to mobrien
I would like us to maybe not draw conclusions based on a one-game sample size about the realness of Yale's defense (If we're including Cornell, their guards were the ones hitting most of those). Of note: Harvard shot 52% (7/13 iirc) in the first half from 3 and then in the second, when Yale ratcheted up the defensive intensity (as you pointed out), Harvard shot appreciably worse. I can't remember the exact number, but provided I remembered the first half right, Harvard was a cool 1-6 in the second half (and that one was Djuricic draining a tough one flat-footed with a hand in his face - hardly a result of systematic success).
I won't pretend that this isn't a matchup that isn't great for Yale, but it seems evident to me that they figured something out in the second half. Whether that's a lasting thing or not, we won't get to even sniff that answer until the last game of the regular season, alas.
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4361
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-08-20 06:53 AM - Post#298950
In response to iogyhufi
Not sure Yale’s defense was better in the second half, but it’s clear that shots that went in in half 1 were missed in half 2.
My takeaway - push the ball against Yale. Don’t walk it up all the time- a pattern Penn has fallen into.
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digamma
Masters Student
Posts: 468
Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
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02-08-20 08:20 AM - Post#298951
In response to AsiaSunset
Just want to add what a phenomenal atmosphere it was last night. Yale students were so into it. Really fun.
Inconsistent officiating the whole way. But neither team let it matter.
What a second half by Swain.
We had several shots in the second that were halfway down and rimmed out. Those could have changed the numbers too.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Yale
02-08-20 09:14 AM - Post#298954
In response to digamma
Now four last second shots to win or tie in three games over eight days! Harvard basketball is certainly worth the price of admission! Will it happen again tonight at Brown?
I certainly miss Bryce’s end of game heroics, but this team is starting to figure it out. Gigantic shots by Kirkwood, Juzang and Bassey in game on the line situations with Djuricic and a Haskett coming up big late also. It’s certainly been tough sledding, but this team could be 5-0, or just as easily 2-3. Oh, and all on the road.
And how about Lewis. He stuffed Aririzoh 3 times at the rim (yes, foul called but I think on Bassey) and now Bruner twice after Djuricic did the same on the prior possession.
Can’t wait for Lavietes!
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-08-20 09:17 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-08-20 12:35 PM - Post#298972
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Harvard shot 42% from 3 last night on an opponent's floor. They are gonna win most games when that happens.
More interesting is Harvard may have shot that way in large part because they shared the ball last night more than they have all season. 23 assists on 31 made baskets. Their highest assist rate (by a lot) all season. Further, Harvard had 23 assists to 11 turnovers, which is a massive standard deviation from their season results. Harvard has had a 1/1 or worse A/TO ratio in 14 of 20 games. In their loss at Penn they had a season worst 5 assists to 12 turnovers.
If Harvard can continue to protect the ball and share it, their shooting % will stay high and they will be very hard to beat. But the results of the season so far say that was a pretty big anomaly.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-08-20 12:56 PM - Post#298977
In response to PennFan10
For what it's worth, Yale kind of invited that level of ball movement by switching ball screens a ton. Wyatt Yess, God love him, cannot be expected to keep Juzang in front of him.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-08-20 01:44 PM - Post#298978
In response to iogyhufi
I’d be careful to read too, too much into Assist Rates. Since 3PT Js tend to be heavily assisted and 2PTers much less so, quite often, fluctuations in Assist Rates are heavily related to 3PTers falling or not.
Generally teams with higher Assist Rates have higher offensive efficiency, but that relationship is confounded by the fact that teams with higher Assist Rates tend to see a higher percentage of shots as threes (which also is correlated with higher efficiency).
That’s not to mention the small, but still significant, impact the defense can have on Assist Rate based on the choices it makes.
Not necessarily disagreeing with the premise, but it’s a complicated issue (which could be made a bit less complicated by measuring ALL shots off of passes, rather than just the ones that happen to go in).
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-08-20 02:35 PM - Post#298980
In response to mrjames
I don't disagree and looking at assist rate alone, especially for just one game, isn't very reliable. I was looking at the A/TO rate over the course of the season and simply noting that for last nights game, it was way beyond anything Harvard had produced in any of its other games. That and shooting 42% from 3 for only the 5th time all season (all wins) are worth noting.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-08-20 03:17 PM - Post#298985
In response to PennFan10
Yeah, that game was an anomaly in a variety of ways, though. That was Harvard's second-worst FT Rate allowed of the season. While, yes, Harvard made a little more than a three-pointer more than it should have, Yale getting 29 free throws is something I don't see happening again either.
Both teams played really well. I don't expect either to play as well offensively at Lavietes - would expect a final in the 60s there.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-08-20 03:52 PM - Post#299010
In response to mrjames
4 pts less is a loss last night no?
And Leaving Swain open for a 3 with less than a minute left off a ball screen was a major blunder by Lewis (the one before Haskett fouled him). Lewis was camped out in paint while Atkinson set a screen on Bassey, and Swain had a wide open look from the the top.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-08-20 06:17 PM - Post#299066
In response to PennFan10
I’m less inclined to buy that line of reasoning when a team is up double-digits with five minutes to go. This was Yale’s worst average lead/deficit score of the season. Granted, you CAN lose with that large an average lead (Yale already did at Penn St this year), but when your average lead is in the 7s for the game, you need to have a ridiculous “luck†showing (for instance, Princeton’s 13-for-23 night from 3) for me to buy the “that won’t happen again†argument.
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mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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02-11-20 05:59 PM - Post#299587
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
This is a better shot of what happened at the end of the Yale game. Rio definitely reached in, and probably did foul.
https://twitter.com/ivybball/status/12262 243592343...
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