Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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02-13-20 04:32 PM - Post#299827
Opens Eli -4 1/2
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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02-13-20 05:20 PM - Post#299831
In response to Eric Von Zipper
I think Swain is the key matchup tomorrow night for the Tigers. While Atkinson and Bruner are certainly all-Ivy talents, Swain's shooting is what pushes Yale to the next level. He's shooting an absurd 52% on 7.6 3PA/game during Ivy play, and he's been held below 2 makes just once by D1 competition this season. Personally, I like Wright on him because of his length and athleticism, but containing Swain has to be a team effort. I think the goal should be for Swain to have no more than 5 3PA - a tough ask since Brown is the only team to do it this season, but there has to be an emphasis not just on closing out hard, but on denying him any looks since he'll hit contested shots from distance. I think I'd start with Wright on Swain, JL on Monroe, Schwieger on Gabbidon, Evbuomwan on Bruner and RA on Atkinson. I'd also like to see a bit more of the full court trapping press the Tigers have shown every once in a while in lineups with Morales/Llewellyn/Wright/ Evbuomwan/RA. That's a quick and long lineup, and it's had some success getting turnovers.
Aririguzoh-Atkinson should be a really good matchup. Richmond had a career high 24 against Yale in the Ivy League tournament semifinal last year, and a good bulk of those points came against Atkinson (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuGwzKMfLB0). I don't anticipate Atkinson will take the matchup lightly, and on the other end RA has to stay out of foul trouble or else the Tigers could be in danger against Atkinson.
I thought Llewellyn had a really nice weekend on the NY trip, and he also played well @Yale in the ILT semi, and a good game from him Friday would be huge.
Yale's bench is not very deep (or at least, has not played much - 338th in the country in bench minutes). Bruner's health probably swings the odds in this game quite heavily, as a healthy Bruner can bang with RA, or can guard Schwieger/Desrosiers/Evbu omwan and take away any of the size advantages they've enjoyed in previous games, and can deter drives from Morales, Llewellyn and Wright.
I do like that it's at home - it feels like we've shot the ball better from 3 far better at home recently - and hopefully there's a good crowd out. Yale home games in the past have had pretty solid crowds
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Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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02-13-20 06:15 PM - Post#299834
In response to welcometothejungle
I think Swain is the key matchup tomorrow night for the Tigers. While Atkinson and Bruner are certainly all-Ivy talents, Swain's shooting is what pushes Yale to the next level. He's shooting an absurd 52% on 7.6 3PA/game during Ivy play, and he's been held below 2 makes just once by D1 competition this season. Personally, I like Wright on him because of his length and athleticism, but containing Swain has to be a team effort. I think the goal should be for Swain to have no more than 5 3PA - a tough ask since Brown is the only team to do it this season, but there has to be an emphasis not just on closing out hard, but on denying him any looks since he'll hit contested shots from distance. I think I'd start with Wright on Swain, JL on Monroe, Schwieger on Gabbidon, Evbuomwan on Bruner and RA on Atkinson. I'd also like to see a bit more of the full court trapping press the Tigers have shown every once in a while in lineups with Morales/Llewellyn/Wright/ Evbuomwan/RA. That's a quick and long lineup, and it's had some success getting turnovers.
Aririguzoh-Atkinson should be a really good matchup. Richmond had a career high 24 against Yale in the Ivy League tournament semifinal last year, and a good bulk of those points came against Atkinson (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuGwzKMfLB0). I don't anticipate Atkinson will take the matchup lightly, and on the other end RA has to stay out of foul trouble or else the Tigers could be in danger against Atkinson.
I thought Llewellyn had a really nice weekend on the NY trip, and he also played well @Yale in the ILT semi, and a good game from him Friday would be huge.
Yale's bench is not very deep (or at least, has not played much - 338th in the country in bench minutes). Bruner's health probably swings the odds in this game quite heavily, as a healthy Bruner can bang with RA, or can guard Schwieger/Desrosiers/Evbu omwan and take away any of the size advantages they've enjoyed in previous games, and can deter drives from Morales, Llewellyn and Wright.
I do like that it's at home - it feels like we've shot the ball better from 3 far better at home recently - and hopefully there's a good crowd out. Yale home games in the past have had pretty solid crowds
Tigers are 3-0 ATS at home in Ivy games. All games have gone under (Just posted at 137 1/2)
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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02-13-20 06:53 PM - Post#299836
In response to Eric Von Zipper
I would suspect that Valentine's Day will not help attendance.
Arirguzoh had a very good game against Atkinson during IvyMadness but Atkinson is a much improved player. Hopefully, Jones decides to have Atkinson take on Richmond one on one rather than doubling like Cornell did last weekend. Earl used a great strategy of doubling Richmond as soon as he touched the ball which disrupted Richmond leading to turnovers or slowly developing plays. Richmond had a very poor 1st half.
Jaelin had a pretty brutal game at Cornell but made a nice comeback at Columbia as he played under control. Earl got Jaelin to speed up and take a lot of shots rather than letting the Tigers utilize all five players on the court. Hopefully, Jaelin plays under control as the team performs more efficiently.
4 1/2 pt spread seems right. Will be a tough game for the Tigers to win but the IL is so crazy this year == who knows.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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02-14-20 11:22 AM - Post#299878
In response to bradley
Warren Nolan has the Tigers men losing by 6, 76-70, and realtime bu 2, 73-71. Spread is 4 1/2.
Nolan has Tiger women winning by 6 pts, 68-62, and realtime by 8 pts, 68-60. Vegas spread is 13 1/2 which is crazy as Princeton has a rpi of 20 and Yale 41 plus the game is on the road. This game might be the most important game of the year.
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Tiger84
Senior
Posts: 379
Age: 61
Reg: 03-06-17
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02-14-20 12:13 PM - Post#299893
In response to bradley
Curious where you are finding WBB spreads?
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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02-14-20 12:29 PM - Post#299898
In response to bradley
Massey Ratings have the women projected to win 69-55, a lot closer to the spread. Their composite rankings have the Tigers at #13 in the country right now
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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02-14-20 01:13 PM - Post#299903
In response to welcometothejungle
Website that accepts women's NCAA bets is hard to find -- one is 5Dimes Sportsbook.
13 1/2 points seems like a very big spread especially with the game at New Haven. Yale has a PG and C that can compete against Bella and Carlie which is rare indeed. Tigers have not experienced being under any stress since the Iowa OT game so you are never sure how they might react plus they are due for an off night. On the other side of the equation, I suspect that Carla will have them extremely focused and the biggest factor is how well they play defense which should keep them in any game. Yale also has two 3 pt shooters and they have a high powered offense -- something that the Tigers have not experienced in a while.
Got it wrong last week as they covered the huge spread against Cornell but Tigers played lazy in the 4th quarter and gave up the spread cover which they had secured by the end of the 3rd qtr. Giving up points and going with Bella and crew has been a very pleasant experience this year.
Not touching this game tonight. More inclined to place a friendly wager on men but the IL men is so hard to figure out.
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Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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Yale
02-14-20 02:31 PM - Post#299913
In response to bradley
Drifting down to Yale -3 1/2 O/U 136 at the lunch hour.
For those so inclined, Ryan Betley is out indefinitely for Pennsylvania. Bruno (+7) has won 4 in a row and is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 visits to the Palestra with an avg spread cover of 9.1 pts. Their one ATS loss was last year when they were getting +6.5 and lost 58-51.
Edited by Eric Von Zipper on 02-14-20 02:32 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2272
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-14-20 02:44 PM - Post#299918
In response to bradley
So this is where I go to get tutorials on betting?? 
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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02-14-20 07:59 PM - Post#299963
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Yale -4 makes more sense with Bruner starting.
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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02-14-20 08:11 PM - Post#299967
In response to whitakk
Good aggressiveness from Evbuomwan early, he’s got 6 including 2 layups going right at Bruner. Tigers trail 15-10 at the U16 but Bulldogs have come out hot and the Tigers have missed some layups early
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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02-14-20 10:01 PM - Post#300032
In response to welcometothejungle
Brutal game all around. Offense never got into a rhythm and the defense couldn’t buy a stop. Not much else to say besides need to be a lot better tomorrow night
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1885
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-14-20 11:05 PM - Post#300042
In response to welcometothejungle
Oof. Really tough night and I burned some serious chits with the wife to take in the game with her on Valentines Day.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2272
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-15-20 09:24 AM - Post#300066
In response to TigerFan
I did not watch live due to Valentines Day, but I followed the score on my phone periodically, to my dismay.
Just watched the entire game this morning.
Yech!
Yale is VERY talented, and as always, exceptionally well coached.
From our end, basically nothing from Richmond, Jae-Llew and Schwieger. End of story.
At least they are rested for tonight's game, which now becomes so important.
Funny riff from Noah Savage about 5 AM five mile runs at Yale, and 5 AM practice at Princeton.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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02-15-20 09:56 AM - Post#300071
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Pitiful - Defense looked like Swiss Cheese and offense was sad. On top of it all, Atkinson had limited minutes and the Tigers played at home.
The season has been a roller coaster as has been the coaching of Mitch and the play of the team. The challenge tonight is to play ferociously hard on defense in an attempt to avoid a season collapse similar to last year. Mitch and the coaching staff have been unable to get to the team to play hard, smart and well. Where is Spencer Weisz and Stephen Cook when you need them.
One can only imagine if the men played on the road last night at New Haven and shot poorly with only 2 of 13 3 pointers and being down 12-0 after 6 1/2 minutes yet win by 16 points. For comparison purposes, Yale's women team has a lower rpi than Yale's men team both before and after the game. Why such a difference? -- is it simply talent or something else. Every word that first comes out of Berube or her player's mouth is DEFENSE. Players are all in with Berube's coaching philosophy and it shows in their play.
I hope to see something from Mitch and the player's tonight at Jadwin. Will be rooting for them but Mitch needs to do some soul searching as to his coaching philosophy.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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02-15-20 10:54 AM - Post#300081
In response to bradley
I think this is just a high-variance team (aside from Aririguzoh) -- which makes sense given their reliance on threes and the fact that most of the team is still pretty young and figuring out the fit together.
Optimistically, reminds me of last year when they got destroyed by Yale twice and then should have won the rematch on the road in the tournament. But a strong bounceback tonight would sure help.
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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02-15-20 12:36 PM - Post#300100
In response to whitakk
Optimistically, reminds me of last year when they got destroyed by Yale twice and then should have won the rematch on the road in the tournament. But a strong bounceback tonight would sure help.
Had the same thought as well, and watching last night felt a lot like watching last year's home game against Yale. Both this year and last year's Yale teams play with a ton of swagger and confidence, and when they get on a roll you can feel it and they're letting you know.
As bad as last night was, the Tigers are still in position to be just 1 GB of Yale with a win tonight, and could even get back into a tie if Yale struggles in Philly. Last night was brutal but I agree that this is a high variance team so hopefully tonight looks better. Brown has won 2 straight at Jadwin and 5 games in a row, so not an easy task at all.
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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02-15-20 12:48 PM - Post#300101
In response to welcometothejungle
Also on the (extremely limited) positive side, it was nice to see Langborg back after he'd missed some time with injury to start Ivy play. Not sure he has a path to the rotation this year at this point in the season but he hit a tough contested 3 and had a finish in transition.
Evbuomwan also had his best night as a Tiger, which is encouraging as well. He goes to the rim with a lot of control and is able to sort of slow-mo defenders into jumping past him and giving him easy uncontested layups.
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Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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02-15-20 03:26 PM - Post#300118
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
I teach a course at the local Community College "Ace Rothstein..the Man and his Methods".
Has been oversubscribed for the past 2 years and I've been after them to offer it on-line.
Next offering is in April 2020. Let me know if you are interested and I'll give you a seat.
Very reasonable, only $95.00.
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