rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3053
Reg: 10-20-14
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02-22-20 10:02 PM - Post#301452
In response to Bryan
After 2/22/20 games -
Men
Yale 8-2
Harvard 7-3 (1-1 vs Princeton; best win vs Yale)
Princeton 7-3 (1-1 vs Harvard; best win vs Brown)
Brown 6-4 (1-0 vs Penn; best win vs Harvard)
Penn 5-5 (0-1 vs Brown; best win vs Yale)
Dartmouth 3-7 (1-0 vs Cornell; best win vs Penn)
Cornell 3-7 (0-1 vs Dartmouth; best win vs Princeton)
Columbia 1-9
Women
Princeton 9-0
Penn 7-2
Columbia 6-4 (1-1 vs Yale; best win vs Harvard)
Yale 6-4 (1-1 vs Columbia; best win vs Brown)
Harvard 5-5 (1-0 vs Yale; 0-1 vs Columbia; best win vs Penn)
Brown 2-8 (2-1 vs Cornell and Dartmouth)
Dartmouth 2-8 (1-1 vs Brown and Cornell)
Cornell 2-8 (1-2 vs Brown and Dartmouth)
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mrjames
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-20 10:01 AM - Post#301486
In response to rbg
And now on 2/23, here's where we stand:
Wins needed for fourth -
9 - 12%
8 - 67%
7 - 21%
6 - <1%
Percent of sims where the *fifth* place team has this number of wins -
9 - <1%
8 - 15%
7 - 62%
6 - 23%
5 - <1%
And the top combinations of teams (in any order):
Brown, Harvard, Princeton, Yale - 52%
Harvard, Penn, Princeton, Yale - 47%
Tourney Odds:
Yale 100% (Probably too few sims, Yale isn't clinched)
Princeton >99%
Harvard >99%
Brown 52%
Penn 48%
Difference between today's and yesterday's numbers is that Brown's ratings took a hit, and Penn's improved marginally, giving Penn better odds to win the pivotal game at Brown.
Bid Odds:
Yale 47%
Harvard 34%
Princeton 9%
Penn 6%
Brown 3%
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
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Breaking It All Down
02-23-20 10:23 AM - Post#301491
In response to mrjames
First, let us bow our heads in respectful silence for Columbia, the first team to be mathematically eliminated from tournament contention.
Second, let's look at the magic numbers for each remaining team. I'm not going to include Cornell or Dartmouth; suffice it to say that they need basically every game to break their way. With 4 games to play:
Yale: 2 wins or Penn/Brown losses
Princeton: 2 wins or Penn losses (owns tiebreaker over Penn)
Harvard: 2 wins or Penn losses (Harvard wins nearly all ties with Penn by virtue of their win over Princeton)
Brown: 4 wins or Penn losses
Penn: 6 wins or Brown losses (5 if Penn beats Brown, since they win the tie in that circumstance)
Edited by iogyhufi on 02-23-20 10:35 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Streamers
Professor
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Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-20 11:36 AM - Post#301503
In response to iogyhufi
Penn's victory at Cornell is looking better all the time. Boeheim should have gone down earlier ;-)
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-20 03:57 PM - Post#301552
In response to Streamers
More context...
Adjusted Efficiency Margin in Ivy Play:
Yale +12
Princeton +6
Harvard +4
Penn -1
Dartmouth -3
Brown -6
Cornell -7
Columbia -8
Implied Records Based on "Game Script" (average lead over the course of the game):
Princeton 8-2
Yale 7-3
Penn 7-3
Harvard 6-4
Cornell 4-6
Dartmouth 3-7
Brown 3-7
Columbia 2-8
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2274
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-20 06:34 PM - Post#301580
In response to mrjames
Am I to infer that Princeton gave away games that had been won statistically?
Is this (over time) a criticism of coaching?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-20 09:43 PM - Post#301595
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
No, no - sorry didn’t explain that one well enough.
Game Script is the average lead/deficit calculated by averaging the margin at every moment in the game. So, if Team A and Team B are playing, and Team A scores a 2-pointer right at the opening tip, then Team B hits a 3-pointer right out of the second half break, and that’s all the scoring, then the average lead for Team A (deficit for Team B) would be 0.5 points (2-point lead for the entire first half, 1-point deficit for entire second half), BUT Team B would win the game.
So, all that means is that Princeton has had a net of one game where it jumped out to an early lead that it held for a good amount of time and ended up losing the game.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-24-20 12:55 PM - Post#301622
In response to mrjames
Advanced look at the different Friday scenarios (with odds of that scenario happening from which I removed the Dartmouth-Cornell result since it doesn't really matter):
All Road Teams Win - 5%
Yale 100%
Princeton 100%
Harvard 100%
Penn 71%
Brown 29%
Penn L, Other Road Teams Win - 25%
Yale 100%
Princeton 100%
Harvard 100%
Brown 51%
Penn 48%
Dartmouth 1%
Penn/Princeton L, H Wins - 34%
Yale 100%
Harvard 100%
Princeton >99%
Brown 64%
Penn 37%
Penn/Princeton L, H L - 13%
Yale 100%
Princeton >99%
Harvard 98%
Brown 65%
Penn 37%
Penn/Princeton W, H L - 3%
Yale 100%
Princeton >99%
Harvard 99%
Penn 72%
Brown 29%
Penn L, Princeton W, H L - 10%
Yale 100%
Princeton 100%
Harvard 99%
Penn 51%
Brown 48%
Dartmouth 2%
Penn W, Princeton L, H L - 3%
Yale >99%
Princeton 99%
Harvard 97%
Brown 56%
Penn 49%
Penn W, Princeton L, H W - 7%
Harvard >99%
Yale >99%
Princeton 98%
Brown 53%
Penn 50%
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2274
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-25-20 07:44 AM - Post#301705
In response to mrjames
No, no - sorry didn’t explain that one well enough.
Game Script is the average lead/deficit calculated by averaging the margin at every moment in the game. So, if Team A and Team B are playing, and Team A scores a 2-pointer right at the opening tip, then Team B hits a 3-pointer right out of the second half break, and that’s all the scoring, then the average lead for Team A (deficit for Team B) would be 0.5 points (2-point lead for the entire first half, 1-point deficit for entire second half), BUT Team B would win the game.
So, all that means is that Princeton has had a net of one game where it jumped out to an early lead that it held for a good amount of time and ended up losing the game.
If your game script W/L is better than your actual record by several wins (hypothetically), then you can't hold a lead, and, vice versa, you are a good come-back team.
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mrjames
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-25-20 04:23 PM - Post#301723
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Bingo... generally for me, I use game script in the following way: Since game script is highly correlated with winning and margin, I use it to understand whether the final margins are hiding something about how good a team is.
For instance, up until very recently, it appeared Harvard was a lot better than its Pythag, as it had a lot of impressive Game Scripts that ended with less than impressive margins. Then, it swept this past weekend despite losing both Game Scripts, so it'll be interesting to see if that was a momentary blip or a trend.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3053
Reg: 10-20-14
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02-28-20 10:57 PM - Post#302230
In response to mrjames
After 2/28/20 games
Yale 9-2
Harvard 8-3 (1-1 vs Princeton; 1-0 vs Yale, 0-1 vs Brown, 1-1 vs Penn)
Princeton 8-3 (1-1 vs Harvard; 0-1 vs Yale, 2-0 vs Brown, 2-0 vs Penn)
Brown 6-5 (1-0 vs Penn; 0-2 vs Yale, 1-0 vs Harvard, 0-2 vs Princeton)
Penn 5-6 (0-1 vs Brown; 1-1 vs Yale, 1-1 vs Harvard, 0-2 vs Princeton)
Dartmouth 4-7
Cornell 3-8
Columbia 1-10
Remaining Games
02/29/20 (Sat) Dartmouth at Columbia, Harvard at Cornell, Penn at Brown, Princeton at Yale
03/06/20 (Fri) Brown at Harvard, Columbia at Princeton, Cornell at Penn, Yale at Dartmouth
03/07/20 (Sat) Brown at Dartmouth, Columbia at Penn, Cornell at Princeton, Yale at Harvard
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3053
Reg: 10-20-14
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02-29-20 04:27 PM - Post#302370
In response to rbg
After 2/28/20 games (updated)
* 1 Yale 9-2 (2-0 vs Brown, 2-0 vs Columbia, 2-0 vs Cornell, 1-0 vs Dartmouth, 0-1 vs Harvard, 1-1 vs Penn, 1-0 vs Princeton)
* T-2 Princeton 8-3 (2-0 vs Brown, 1-0 vs Columbia, 0-1 vs Cornell, 2-0 vs Dartmouth, 1-1 vs Harvard, 2-0 vs Penn, 0-1 vs Yale)
** T-2 Harvard 8-3 (0-1 vs Brown, 1-0 vs Cornell, 2-0 vs Columbia, 2-0 vs Dartmouth, 1-1 vs Penn, 1-1 vs Princeton, 1-0 vs Yale)
4 Brown 6-5 (2-0 vs Columbia, 1-1 vs Cornell, 1-0 vs Dartmouth, 1-0 vs Harvard, 1-0 vs Penn, 0-2 vs Princeton, 0-2 vs Yale)
5 Penn 5-6 (0-1 vs Brown, 1-0 vs Columbia, 1-0 vs Cornell, 1-1 vs Dartmouth, 1-1 vs Harvard, 0-2 vs Princeton, 1-1 vs Yale)
6 Dartmouth 4-7 (0-1 vs Brown, 1-0 vs Columbia, 2-0 vs Cornell, 0-2 vs Harvard, 1-1 vs Penn, 0-2 vs Princeton, 0-1 vs Yale)
7 Cornell 3-8 (1-1 vs Brown, 1-1 vs Columbia, 0-2 vs Dartmouth, 0-1 vs Harvard, 0-1 vs Penn, 1-0 vs Princeton, 0-2 vs Yale)
8 Columbia 1-10 (0-2 vs Brown, 1-1 vs Cornell, 0-1 vs Dartmouth, 0-2 vs Harvard, 0-1 vs Penn, 0-1 vs Princeton, 0-2 vs Yale)
* officially clinched Ivy Tournament spot
** unofficially clinched Ivy Tournament spot (see Harvard's Columbia II thread)
Remaining Games
02/29/20 (Sat) Dartmouth at Columbia, Harvard at Cornell, Penn at Brown, Princeton at Yale
03/06/20 (Fri) Brown at Harvard, Columbia at Princeton, Cornell at Penn, Yale at Dartmouth
03/07/20 (Sat) Brown at Dartmouth, Columbia at Penn, Cornell at Princeton, Yale at Harvard
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Breaking It All Down
03-01-20 11:57 AM - Post#302542
In response to rbg
So, here’s what we know:
Tourney odds:
Penn 98%
Brown 1.6%
Dartmouth 0.4%
First seed:
Yale 51%
Harvard 49%
Second seed:
Yale 49%
Harvard 46%
Princeton 5%
Third seed:
Princeton 95%
Harvard 5%
Fourth seed:
(Same as Ivy Tourney odds above)
Bid odds:
Harvard 45%
Yale 35%
Penn 11%
Princeton 9%
Odds of losing in the semis:
Princeton 72%
Penn 67%
Yale 32%
Harvard 28%
Brown 1%
Dartmouth <1%
Odds of losing in finals:
Yale 33%
Harvard 28%
Penn 19%
Princeton 19%
Brown <1%
Dartmouth <1%
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-01-20 03:59 PM - Post#302579
In response to mrjames
If anyone besides h or Y wins the bid this season we should drop the Tournament until we are a 2 bid conference. At the very least the Tournament should include the greater of two teams or the number of teams that tie for first place.ðŸ…
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1149
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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03-01-20 04:05 PM - Post#302580
In response to Tiger69
If anyone besides h or Y wins the bid this season we should drop the Tournament until we are a 2 bid conference. At the very least the Tournament should include the greater of two teams or the number of teams that tie for first place.ðŸ…
If anyone besides H or Y wins the bid, they will likely be sent to Dayton, where they have an excellent chance of winning a game and bringing a big NCAA check to the league.
You knew that, right?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-01-20 04:16 PM - Post#302583
In response to Go Green
In an ironic twist, we may get helped by the crazy overvaluing of Tier I wins if Penn wins the Ivy Tourney. I suspect that Penn would start as a high 14 and could easily get bumped to the 13 line with normal amounts of conf tourney mayhem. Princeton could end up in Dayton (though probably still wouldn’t), but it’s gonna be hard for the committee to look at a Penn team with those wins at not give them a 13 or 14.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
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Reg: 02-15-15
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03-01-20 04:19 PM - Post#302586
In response to mrjames
What kind of seed would H or Y draw?
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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03-01-20 04:20 PM - Post#302587
In response to Go Green
I would tend to say that it would be better for the league to send a team that has the best chance of winning a high-profile game rather than preferring to send a team to go play Northwest-Southeast Wyoming Tech in Dayton and then lose to Kansas by 30. The additional money really isn't terribly much when divided up by school, and it's not like the Ivy League is hard up for cash.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1149
Age: 52
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03-01-20 04:35 PM - Post#302590
In response to iogyhufi
I would tend to say that it would be better for the league to send a team that has the best chance of winning a high-profile game rather than preferring to send a team to go play Northwest-Southeast Wyoming Tech in Dayton and then lose to Kansas by 30.
The Patriot League (and likely others) respectfully disagree.
https://www.si.com/college/2016/03/17/nc aa-tournam...
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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03-01-20 04:51 PM - Post#302593
In response to iogyhufi
I can't speak for Princeton, but Penn has competed very well against high level competition this year.
And I don't ever recall Penn getting completely blown out of an NCAA tourney game from the get-go. Maybe the last time it happened was the 1979 consolation game (but heck, by then they had made the Final Four).
I would tend to say that it would be better for the league to send a team that has the best chance of winning a high-profile game rather than preferring to send a team to go play Northwest-Southeast Wyoming Tech in Dayton and then lose to Kansas by 30. The additional money really isn't terribly much when divided up by school, and it's not like the Ivy League is hard up for cash.
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