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Username Post: Insight from KenPom        (Topic#24034)
UPIA1968 
PhD Student
Posts: 1116
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
02-23-20 12:36 AM - Post#301470    

The obvious one is three-point shooting. Per our learned friend Mike James Penn excels at getting and preventing tree attempts, a critical stat. Penn ranks 42 in getting them and 16 in preventing them. That is the coaching part – Grade A. The problem is that, for a team designed around the three, they rank 264 in 3%. That is the talent part. Three or four, if you count Charles, of their best three shooters are injured. So that is a combination of bad luck and spotty recruiting. Consider that there is no good three shooter in the Junior Class.

The other factor is number of possessions. Penn is excellent in both offensive efficiency, rank 90, and defensive efficiency, rank 88. Moreover the rank 19 in 2% and 72 in 2% defense. Moreover they rank 114 in assists on offense and 7 on defense. Somehow it seems like Penn goes dry on offense while the opponents can’t miss. That is simply not so. Same goes for their propensity to foul. They are ranked 38 despite Ivy League refs. Finally, they excel at avoiding turnovers, ranking 105. There are plenty of signs of good coaching here.

Now here is where it gets interesting. On offense, if they miss, nothing good happens. They rank 330 on FT attempted and 329 on offensive rebounds. They are the classic one and done team, even against Ivy opposition.

Of defense, again, they are surprisingly good at avoiding fouls. However they rank 302 in causing turnovers, seldom denying their opponents the opportunity to score. In the same vein, and just as important is their defensive rebounding. They rank 250 in preventing offensive rebounds. So even though their opponents are not that good at creating baskets, Penn seldom reduces the number of opportunities through defense and gives them extra opportunities through poor defensive rebounding.

Wanna know why this year’s team will achieve less than last year’s team. Their creation of turnovers has fallen by 166 points in rank and their denial of O boards by 163 ranking points. Perhaps Wang and Betley would have helped on the boards, but most of this drop-off is simply less talent. Both issues have much to do with fundamental positioning skills, something Freshmen seldom do well.

It is nice to know that a win next week in Providence and a final weekend sweep will still probably get them in the tournament. Still, the imbalance of opportunities between them and their opponents is troubling.


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21081

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Insight from KenPom
02-23-20 03:54 PM - Post#301551    
    In response to UPIA1968

Did not see either game but the offensive rebounding issues have really plagued them all season long.

 
pennsive 
Junior
Posts: 200

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Insight from KenPom
02-23-20 04:43 PM - Post#301560    
    In response to UPIA1968

You nailed it statistically, but what is the remedy on defense when we are undersized, have only a few quality players who are healthy, and have such a thin bench? I have proposed a zone on different threads for two years now, but I feel as though I am all alone and baying at the moon. Obviously, better recruiting, and more numbers would address, or at least mask, these deficiencies, but this is not what we have for this year, so how can the coach stop the bleeding right now?

 
Chip Bayers 
Professor
Posts: 6997
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
02-23-20 05:28 PM - Post#301561    
    In response to pennsive

Zone with the undersized lineup probably just creates more offensive rebounding possibilities against a team like Harvard with the athletes to find the gaps when there’s no one to put a body on them.

Could play more minutes of L-L rather than Simmons at the 5, with Brodeur at the 4.


 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Insight from KenPom
02-23-20 05:32 PM - Post#301564    
    In response to pennsive

I thought the only good couple of minutes Friday night was when we went zone on Dartmouth. Not sure why we went away from it after a few stops in a row

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
02-23-20 06:18 PM - Post#301575    
    In response to AsiaSunset

I just don’t know how much Penn has practiced zone this year. I agree mixing it in as a change up is a good idea. Cornell really confused Yale with a zone for a lot of the time.

The problem isn’t defense as much as it is offense. We are 178th on offense and 140th on defense. Holding teams in the 60’s should be enough. We need to score more. The reality is the Ivy Champ has always had a top 75 offense or defense and we aren’t close in either area. Yale has both, Princeton has a top 100 offense, no one else is close on either side.

 
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