HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-02-20 12:27 PM - Post#302677
For Saturday's game vs Yale to decide the Ivy League Regular Season Title, Harvard needs to get by Brown on Friday. Although Dartmouth is playing well, Yale will still be expected to prevail in Hanover, nothwistanding the ghosts of Gabas Maldunas and Justin Sears (2015).
Based on KenPom, Harvard could be favored by 15 points. That is unrealistic. This Harvard team, especially absent Christian Juzang, doesn't beat anyone by that margin and, even when playing well in spurts, hasn't been able to contribute a solid 40 minute effort. Seems like we get a good 20 to 25 minutes, with a 15-20 minute scrum. By the way, this is where missing your top 2 point guards is most evident.
Brown did beat Harvard in Providence, but that result was heavily influenced by the refereeing. I'm not griping about particular calls, but rather the fact that 49 fouls were called. Harvard's 'Bully Ball' was neutralized, although Brown does have the size to compete better than most in this league (Gainey, Choh, Howard & DeWolf).
Brown is possibly among league's worst offensive teams - at 63.8ppg in conference, ahead of only Princeton (62.8) and Dartmouth (59.1). Brown is the league's worst shooting team at 38% (Harvard is 44.9%) and second worst three point shooting team at 26.5%. Brown's defense also ranks in the bottom half of the league as well in virtually every category, with the exception of blocking shots (see Gainey) and rebounding (3rd in margin behind Yale and Harvard).
The area where Brown excels is FT shooting. Brown leads the league at 76.1%, while Harvard is last in the league at 65.1. Harvard was expected to be better, but replacing attempts Towns and Aiken (roughly 85% ) with Ledlum, Kirkwood and Forbes (61%) is problematic, and the loss of Christian Juzang (78.4%) is likely only to make things worse.
So, the reason why I point to the refereeing in the game at Pizzitola is that the high rate of foul calls catered to Brown's strength. The teams were virtually even in all statistical catergories (rbs, TO, assists, steals, 3 pt shooting, fg shooting). The difference was that Brown was 28-32 on FT's compared to Harvard's 12-18. That's a 16 point differential that Harvard actually overcame, until Brown's Choh hit a last second shot and, yes, free throw, for a 1 point home victory. The fouls compounded Harvard's woes as Chris Lewis was limited in minutes, playing only 25 minutes and finishing with 4 fouls.
If you look at each team's other 11 conference games, Brown gets to the line 18.7 times per game and the Crimson 17.9. Thus, applying the FT shooting prowess of each team against virtually identical competition, Brown can be expected to outscore the Crimson by a point or two at the line, not 16 points!
So, my expectations for Friday rely heavily on whether the refs let them play, or whether we get that god-awful group that called 49 fouls on a dreary night in Providence.
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digamma
Masters Student
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Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
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03-02-20 12:52 PM - Post#302681
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I know this is going to raise your ire, but this season I really don't care about the regular season title. I'd trot out Sakota, Brayboy, O'Neill, Catchings and (in a nod to an old mrjames joke) Drew Faust for both games this weekend. No more injuries.
I also personally don't want to play against Brodeur again (unless it's in the Ivy final).
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digamma
Masters Student
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Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
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03-02-20 12:57 PM - Post#302682
In response to digamma
I know Tommy won't do that, btw, and I will cheer just as hard Friday and Saturday night. Just want to get back to the tournament for this class.
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iogyhufi
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Age: 27
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Re: Brown 03-02-20 01:03 PM - Post#302683
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
It still hurts to hear G-s M-s mentioned. What an unfortunate way to blow a season.
Relatedly, if I ever meet Patrick Steeves, I'm going to buy him a beer.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
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Brown 03-02-20 02:40 PM - Post#302703
In response to digamma
Doesn't raise my ire at all. The League has made the coming final weekend close to meaningless in favor of bringing Yale back to Lavietes the following weekend, along with the P's or maybe Princeton and Brown.
Like to think that Crimson can play hard this weekend and do so again for the Tournament. Unfortunately, at Yale, being 6-0 vs the participants didn't matter and the year before we were setting up for the finish at Penn when Seth went down with about 8 minutes left. Based on that - as well as 6-8 Penn taking 14-0 Princeton down to the wire in 2017 - regular season performance isn't really very relevant any more. The only reasons to play hard are (a) if you want to claim the regular season championship and it's meaningless top seed, and (b) you want to assure yourselves of at least an invitation to the NIT. With regards to the latter, I assume Yale would garner an invite, not sure about Harvard.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 03-02-20 02:41 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
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Re: Brown 03-02-20 03:53 PM - Post#302723
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
The ironic thing is that Harvard is on the NIT bubble right now, but the win that would get it into firmer status is also the win that would (more than likely) give it the auto-NIT berth. So, it doesn't really seem to have a path to the NIT without securing the NIT auto berth. People mock the NIT, but after the auto-bids are put in the field, there are really only ~20 spots left, which means you have to be darn close to the NCAA bubble to get an at large into the NIT.
To be honest, I think Harvard values winning the league title right up there with getting the bid (the NIT auto-berth doesn't seem to be much of a motivator). So, I think they'll be going all out to win a title this weekend, potential injuries be damned.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
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Re: Brown 03-02-20 04:19 PM - Post#302725
In response to mrjames
They absolutely should do their best. Rings are forever, even if they aren't accompanied by an NCAA bid.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-02-20 04:33 PM - Post#302728
In response to iogyhufi
So, here's the dilemma. Assume Saturday determines the title (even via tie breaker). It's Senior Day. Does Amaker start Henry Welsh with Bassey and Baker? Can't have Chris Lewis start as well as that would be 3 bigs clogging the lane and watching Swain and Monroe shoot 3's.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
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03-02-20 04:45 PM - Post#302730
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
The way Yale has sometimes handled this is that in the case where there are more seniors than can feasibly start, Coach Jones might sit the senior at the position at issue who usually starts. Another solution is to start the all-senior weird lineup, then give a foul on Yale's first possession in order to sub in some more-logical personnel, probably choosing to sit the senior who most-frequently starts. At the 16-minute mark, you can bring in your regulars.
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digamma
Masters Student
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Loc: Minneapolis
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03-02-20 04:59 PM - Post#302732
In response to iogyhufi
We're talking about playing for a minute. Henry, Big Game Bob, Lewis, Bassey and if he can go Juzang.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-02-20 06:16 PM - Post#302749
In response to digamma
Even if Juzang could go this weekend, why would he? Take a chance on reinjuring himself and missing the tournament? No way.
This weekend is nice, but doesn't ultimately count for much.
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palestra38
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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03-02-20 06:25 PM - Post#302757
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Don't you want to be able to say that you earned your home court advantage?
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-02-20 06:27 PM - Post#302758
In response to palestra38
Why?
There's no precedent for that.
#2 seed + HCA = NCAA Bid!
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-02-20 06:48 PM - Post#302763
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
That's based on a tie. You have to at least tie to get there.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-02-20 07:17 PM - Post#302768
In response to palestra38
True enough
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Noah Friedman
Freshman
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Age: 25
Reg: 01-19-20
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03-02-20 10:44 PM - Post#302782
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
What does everybody think? What is the best team you could ever see Harvard hosting? Do you think a power 5 conference team would ever go to play at Harvard?
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palestra38
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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03-02-20 11:14 PM - Post#302787
In response to Noah Friedman
Had they built the 5000 seat arena they said they would build and had the money to build, yes. But in an 1800 seat gym? No
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mrjames
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
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03-03-20 08:24 AM - Post#302793
In response to Noah Friedman
Under Amaker, Harvard has hosted Michigan, Colorado and BC and won all three of those games pretty convincingly.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-20 08:40 AM - Post#302794
In response to mrjames
Of course, the LAST of those 3 was on 1/1/14 in a 2 for 1 series against a local school, BC. You have to go back to 2010 against Colorado and before that against Michigan, Amaker's old school. Frankly, I thought it was the inability to get good out of conference teams at home that was one of the reasons to build the much bigger arena.
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mrjames
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
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03-03-20 10:19 AM - Post#302803
In response to palestra38
A potential new arena is still on the table and had absolutely nothing to do with basketball concerns. Harvard wanted the space near the river that Lavietes currently occupies for dorms and other University buildings. So, it needed to move the current basketball gym and build a new one. I also believe the latest plans before the project was postponed had the arena somewhere in the 3s not 5K.
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