Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-15-20 10:07 AM - Post#304627
Well, with social distancing limiting our options primarily to our homes, our computers, and to isolated work conditons, I thought I would start this thread even though it is probably premature. I also acknowledge that next year’s basketball season may be in jeopardy.
Projected roster:
Wings:
Jordan Dingle
Jelanie Williams
Jonah Charles
Lucas Monroe
Bryce Washington
Griffin Ryan
Alex Imegwu
TJ Berger
Clark Slajchert
Andrew Laczkowski
Wing/Forwards:
Eddie Scott
Max Martz
Forwards/Centers:
Jarrod Simmons
MLL
Michael Wang
Mark Jackson
Of course, everything will change in the post AJ Brodeur era. You can’t replace a transcendent player such as AJ, and the offense will need to be redesigned to accommodate Simmons, MLL, and Jackson at the 5. I can’t imagine a point center next year. If Wang is healthy, I would expect to see two of Simmons, MLL, Jackson, Wang, Scott, and Martz at the 4/5 positions.
If Jelani is healthy, I assume he, Jordan, and possibly Monroe will share running the offense. Beyond that, I would expect Washington to get major minutes along with Charles (based on the preseason hype of last season). Hopefully Imegwu, Ryan, or some of the freshmen will also be ready for prime time.
The defense will really be challenged without AJ and Devon. I hope that MLL will be ready to make an impact defending around the basket.
Overall, my expectations are very low. At the same time, it will be interesting to see which players assume a major role. This will probably be SD’s most challenging year to date at Penn.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next year 03-15-20 11:10 AM - Post#304636
In response to Condor
It should be bumpy, but I cannot see going with anyone in the middle other than MLL---our future success depends on his development. We have seen Simmons' ceiling and it is not high enough to win. Think the 1976-7 team that was loaded with athletic talent up and down the roster but lost to Princeton because they simply made too many mistakes. I can see this team playing like that--but look where that team was in the following 2 years. The only returning non-freshman who I expect to play major minutes is Eddie, who can run with these guys. And that is what they will have to do. Create havoc on defense---with presses, overplays and blocked shots, get out and run. With the graduation losses of Harvard and Yale, I expect that Penn will probably be either the most athletic team in the League or right up there with Harvard, and certainly the youngest. So let's do what they do best. I don't see MLL as anything but a low post center, so he has to be working with a big man coach this summer and learn some scoring moves in the paint. Everyone else needs to work on their three point shooting. It will be a high variable team, but it has the potential to be very good within 2 years.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2125
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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Re: Next year 03-15-20 12:49 PM - Post#304641
In response to palestra38
It should be bumpy, but I cannot see going with anyone in the middle other than MLL---our future success depends on his development. We have seen Simmons' ceiling and it is not high enough to win. Think the 1976-7 team that was loaded with athletic talent up and down the roster but lost to Princeton because they simply made too many mistakes. I can see this team playing like that--but look where that team was in the following 2 years. The only returning non-freshman who I expect to play major minutes is Eddie, who can run with these guys. And that is what they will have to do. Create havoc on defense---with presses, overplays and blocked shots, get out and run. With the graduation losses of Harvard and Yale, I expect that Penn will probably be either the most athletic team in the League or right up there with Harvard, and certainly the youngest. So let's do what they do best. I don't see MLL as anything but a low post center, so he has to be working with a big man coach this summer and learn some scoring moves in the paint. Everyone else needs to work on their three point shooting. It will be a high variable team, but it has the potential to be very good within 2 years.
Wang is the X factor. From what we saw of him in his freshman year, in addition to his range as a shooter, he's actually a pretty deft passer. I would expect him to play at the high post fairly often and run the offense through him. As for MLL, he needs to get stronger if he's going to play low post minutes. He does seem to have the shot-blocker's mentality, which I think is a positive. With the graduation of players like Lewis and Aririguzoh, there aren't going to be a lot of low post bruisers left in the league. Atkinson is more of a finesse player, and guys like Choh and Nweke are bruisers, but not that tall.
I do like the idea of ratcheting up the pressure defense, though. The question is whether or not we have the depth to pull it off successfully. It's never seemed apparent to me that SD has that defensive mindset, though.
Edited by weinhauers_ghost on 03-15-20 12:51 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next year 03-15-20 01:57 PM - Post#304644
In response to weinhauers_ghost
I still want to see Simmons get a chance to play 20 minutes a game in an offense that is not designed around AJ’s skillset before we decide he has hit his ceiling. I think he and MLL will split time at the 5. I hope we see more from both.
I agree with WG that Wang creates some options, but wouldn’t he be more likely to play the 4?
P38, if none of Williams, Washington, Simmons, and Wang get significant minutes, we will have an extremely thin bench unless at least two of the three freshmen are ready to play out of the gate.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next year 03-15-20 02:01 PM - Post#304646
In response to Condor
I hope we will get PT from one of Wang, Williams or Washington. I will be pleasantly surprised if we get that....
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2125
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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Re: Next year 03-15-20 02:12 PM - Post#304648
In response to Condor
I could see playing Wang at the 4, but then that means a commitment to playing two bigs. That was often the case when AJ and Rothschild played together, but we rarely saw that alignment this past season. I'd say it would depend on Wang's health and mobility.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next year 03-15-20 10:43 PM - Post#304671
In response to palestra38
Not sure we have the horses to play pressure defense. We actually lose almost all the guys who get steals — we had 6 guys getting more than one steal per 40 minutes this year, and four of them graduate. That just leaves Monroe and Washington as guys who produce much in terms of turnovers.
My guess is that Donahue doesn’t want to change. He made DNH, AJ, and Max R into the type of high post passer he wanted, so I assume he finds it somewhere. Wang seems the most obvious candidate to step in. If not, I am curious to see if he would move to something a little more point forward-like. I wonder if you could see Martz or Monroe playing some kind of smaller high post.
Just a guess as to what Donahue will want to do, though. As I suggested quite a bit this year, I would have liked to have seen a different offense without the high post when AJ was off the floor this year. So I’d be fine with a more Dingle oriented offense.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next year 03-16-20 08:39 AM - Post#304678
In response to SomeGuy
I don't think the steals numbers are particularly meaningful to deeming a pressure defense possible. We have great strength, speed and athleticism among this year's freshmen, the most highly recruited of whom didn't even play. Add Eddie and the incoming freshmen and we are a totally different team than this year. We should have numbers to play up close on opposing guards and give them trouble.
I am expecting a less than even transition, but in the long run, it is always better to devise a game plan that fits your players rather than fit your players into a pre-set game plan.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2125
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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Re: Next year 03-16-20 09:33 AM - Post#304685
In response to palestra38
I agree. While steals are a desirable outcome, I've always felt that pressure defense is best if your goal is to speed up the opposition and force them to make mistakes, and cause them to burn shot clock time before getting into their offense.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3765
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-16-20 10:57 AM - Post#304693
In response to weinhauers_ghost
That's a good list of defensive goals. I'd add to that forcing the opposing team to take, what is for them, a low-percentage shot.
Also, let's not forget that Fran Dunphy's greatest Penn teams (excepting when Ibby Jaaber was playing), routinely led the conference in all key defensive measures except steals (for which they were usually last). This was by design.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-16-20 11:05 AM - Post#304695
In response to Silver Maple
when I think of changing systems, I think back to Tony hicks who was penn's best (albeit flawed) player. Donahue didn't think he fit and basically told him to pound sand.
I think Steve has a system based on data that says this is the best way to play and he's not going to deviate too much from that. I don't have too much of a problem with this.
other things, sure.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-20 11:10 AM - Post#304696
In response to Jeff2sf
Except Tony Hicks was a senior on a team Donahue inherited. These are all his recruits. It's not the same thing. They are freshmen and sophomores and if their skill sets lay in playing a different style (primarily on defense), I think that's what they have to do. I don't think anything will change in terms of shooting the 3. We had 2 freshmen this year who shot a lot of 3s and we have a couple of shooters in the incoming class as well. But getting defensive pressure so we get out on the break gives us a possibility of getting easy 2s in addition to the 3s and somewhat reduces the need to play half court offense as much when we may be lacking at the point.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3765
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-16-20 11:32 AM - Post#304700
In response to palestra38
Right now, it's clear to me that Donahue has been struggling to recruit enough players who can play his system well enough to win the conference. I'm hooping that this year's crop of freshmen is a sign of things to come and not an anomaly. If we get another dry recruiting class or two, then somebody's going to have to ask the key question: is this the coach's fault, or are there systemic factors that are creating this situation? I can't help but wonder if financial aid disparities aren't at least part of the problem here.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8141
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-20 11:44 AM - Post#304701
In response to Jeff2sf
I think Steve has a system based on data that says this is the best way to play and he's not going to deviate too much from that. I don't have too much of a problem with this.
I hope you are wrong about this. I have always felt that coaches always need to adapt to the talent they have. After seeing him, I am pretty sure they recruited MLL for his low post/rim defense than his potential as a point center. I really think Penn's stable of big guards will be the focus of the offense for a while. Wang is the X-factor.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-16-20 12:45 PM - Post#304706
In response to Streamers
Could be both are true. MLL may be envisioned as the rim protector in the middle on defense, but not the point center in Steve’s offense. Also, while Steve has clearly had a spot that DNH, AJ, and Max R played In the high post, it wasn’t necessarily a feature of his Cornell offense as I remember it. So it is theoretically possible that it isn’t an absolute feature.
On the pressure defense, I think some of the freshmen are built for that (Monroe and MLL) and some are not (Dingle and Martz). They may develop into something different as we go. Agree with P38’s point that pressure defense may be better for the offense though.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1117
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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Re: steals 03-16-20 06:34 PM - Post#304719
In response to SomeGuy
In 2019 Penn ranked 101 in steals, playing within Steve Systems.
I ask a different question. How can Steve make his system better using more athletic players?
That said, a starting lineup of Martz, Dingle, MLL, Wang and Monroe would have no exceptionally quick players. We have seen a jumper in Scott, and probably MLL. Dingle is strong. The only guy I can think of who was quick enough to make a difference was Devon. He did lead the team in steals a year ago, but was just ahead of Silpe and Max.
I would rather talk about players with skills not athleticism.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: steals 03-16-20 07:00 PM - Post#304720
In response to UPIA1968
In the early part of the season, we saw Dingle get by his defender quite often. Combination of quickness plus strength in finishing.
Not as quick as Goodman, but then again that's a pretty high bar.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1117
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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03-16-20 07:14 PM - Post#304721
In response to UPIA1968
It’s time for my fearless projections for next year based on three factors, 2020 finish, losses to graduation and gains from recruiting (and returning from injury). I used a simple ordinal ranking for each and then combined the ranking with equal weight. It’s just a means to get some ideas. I’m sure the Mike James will do a waaaaay better job as usual.
Here are the conclusions.
Surprise contender: Dartmouth has small losses in a year when most everybody else loses a lot. They also have a very good recruit.
Biggest regression: Brown. Ordinary results for whole of 2020 with no improvement in talent next year. They overachieved in the league this year.
Second biggest regression: Harvard – Big losses even without Aiken and Townes. No super recruits coming in. Unless the younger players step up they will have difficulty making the tournament. We will see how good a developer Amaker is.
Misses Tournament: Princeton – A significant loss with nothing spectacular coming in. Remember, they finished behind Penn in KenPom ranking this year.
Wins league: Yale in a close finish in a much weaker league. They lose a lot with no studs coming in but ranked way ahead of everyone else this year.
Treads water: Cornel and Columbia
Highest variance: Penn: Biggest losses but biggest gains, IF Wang plays well. With good health will make tournament and could contend in a weakened league. Remember that this year’s team had two great players but no depth. They return the best freshmen class and have the possibility of contributions from three significant injured players. This year will be a big test of Steve’s ability to mold a team.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2125
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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Re: steals 03-16-20 07:15 PM - Post#304722
In response to UPIA1968
In 2019 Penn ranked 101 in steals, playing within Steve Systems.
I ask a different question. How can Steve make his system better using more athletic players?
That said, a starting lineup of Martz, Dingle, MLL, Wang and Monroe would have no exceptionally quick players. We have seen a jumper in Scott, and probably MLL. Dingle is strong. The only guy I can think of who was quick enough to make a difference was Devon. He did lead the team in steals a year ago, but was just ahead of Silpe and Max.
I would rather talk about players with skills not athleticism.
When you have players who are skilled but lack athleticism, you will often get beaten by teams whose players have both skills and athleticism. Why can we not recruit enough players with both attributes?
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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Next year 03-16-20 08:24 PM - Post#304727
In response to UPIA1968
Second biggest regression: Harvard – Big losses even without Aiken and Townes. No super recruits coming in. Unless the younger players step up they will have difficulty making the tournament. We will see how good a developer Amaker is.
Harvard is bringing in 6-9 center Justice Ajogbor, who's ranked #64 by 247 Sports and #173 overall in their composite rankings, with offers from Auburn, Maryland, and UConn among SEC and ACC schools. Haven't seen him play so I don't know if he's a "super recruit" but I am pretty sure he's the highest rated incoming freshman in the league
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