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Username Post: Ranking Next Year’s Recruits        (Topic#24223)
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
04-02-20 03:00 PM - Post#305606    

Thought I’d take a crack at ranking the incoming recruits while social distancing. I like to do this periodically in an effort to smoke mrjames out into providing a better sense of how players might really stack up. Yes, I know this is a silly academic exercise and actual results will always be different from any attempt to stack things up now. All comments welcome, including suggestions that the endeavor is stupid. I did this in tiers, but I did make a vague effort to rank recruits in the tiers. But within the tiers I think the differences are slight.

Players with multiple high major offers:
Ajogbor (H)
Hemmings (H)
Basa-Ama (Y)

Players with extensive mid-major interest and/or a single high major offer

Hooks (Pr)
Nelson (H)
Berger (Pe)
Slajchert (Pe)
Murphy (Col)
Allocco (Pr)
Martini (Pr)
Gharram (Y)
Kolaja (Y)
Laczkowski (Pe)
Knowling (Y)

Some mid major interest:
Antwi (Col)
Ndur (B)

Ivy/Patriot level interest:
Christenson (D)
Taylor (B)
McLean (Col)
Gray (Cor)
Moses (B)

Low major offers:
Adebayo (Pr)
Neskovic. (D)
Cook (Col)
Manon (Cor)
Odunowo(Col)
McRae (D)


No reported D1 offers:
Boothby (Cor)
Ferrari (B)
Reynolds (Col)
Hansen (Cor)
Johnson (D)
Robinson (D)
Silverstein (H)
Buyukhanli (Y)

Ranking the classes:
Harvard
Yale
Princeton
Penn
Columbia
Brown
Dartmouth
Cornell






 
Go Green 
PhD Student
Posts: 1124

Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
04-03-20 09:25 AM - Post#305655    
    In response to SomeGuy


I know that it's apples and oranges, but Dartmouth fans can take heart that our football recruiting classes are consistently ranked in the middle (if not lower) half of the Ivy year-in-and-year-out.

The results on the field though... are a different matter.



 
mountainred 
Masters Student
Posts: 509

Age: 57
Loc: Charleston, WV
Reg: 04-11-10
Ranking Next Year’s Recruits
04-03-20 10:52 AM - Post#305662    
    In response to Go Green

As a Cornell fan, that is just depressing.

I'd be tempted to flip Gray and Manon -- Manon reportedly had an offer to BU, while the only Ivy or Patriot to offer Gray was 3-29 Holy Cross. But that doesn't change the obvious talent gap or impact the analysis.

Edited by mountainred on 04-03-20 10:53 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: anking Next Year’s Recruits
04-03-20 02:37 PM - Post#305715    
    In response to SomeGuy

HA! I'm not quite in the mode of chasing down thoughts on recruits yet, though I have heard some things throughout the year for the ones that committed a lot earlier in the process.

Ajogbor and Basa-Ama are the real prizes here, but I think there's a lot of intriguing talent beyond that.

Harvard's class will probably hinge on whether Hemmings returns strong from his knee injury, as Ajogbor will take some time (as Lewis did as a freshman) and Nelson might struggle for immediate playing time in a crowded backcourt (though Nelson could end up being a four-year starting PG... mentality could be as important as talent there).

Yale's class is sneaky strong. Harvard's is probably still better, but you could make a decent case for Yale's.

Princeton's is always a shrug. Usually one player that was really heavily pursued nationally (Hooks, who should be solid, but might struggle a bit to start against more athletic college bigs; in the past it's been Langborg, Llewellyn, Much) and then a couple players who somehow will fit its system beautifully out of nowhere and comprise a class that outperforms expectations.

Not as in love with Penn's class as the categorizations below would indicate. And that's even before getting into the fact that it didn't really address its key need (bigs).

Brown's class will outperform the way it's been listed below. Another sneaky Mike Martin recruiting job there.

Don't know much about the rest of the teams, tbh. Will know more as we get closer to the start of the 2020-21 campaign.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: anking Next Year’s Recruits
04-03-20 03:06 PM - Post#305717    
    In response to mrjames

One clarification question— not as high on the Penn class “as the characterizations below would indicate.” Does that simply mean that Penn’s class is below the top three, as indicated, or does it mean that you think the characterizations overestimate Penn’s recruits?

I think one difference we sometimes have is that your take on the classes tends to be driven by total win shares, while I lean a little more toward average per recruit. Penn has the fewest recruits overall, which will limit total win shares for the class, but it does have the best weakest recruit by a good measure, if that makes sense. Everybody else has at least one totally under the radar recruit (AI booster?). The big thing, though, as you point out, is that Penn is the only team that didn’t get a big. That only amplifies getting the fewest recruits.

 
welcometothejungle 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
04-03-20 05:08 PM - Post#305722    
    In response to SomeGuy

One thing I'm curious about from a Princeton POV is to see what/if anything Adebayo can contribute. As mentioned here he's only gotten low major offers and is definitely the least heralded in Princeton's class, but I wonder how much of that is related to him being from Australia and just not having eyes on him. Tosan Evbuomwan (from the UK) had no other offers on his Verbal Commits page besides Princeton, and ended up starting 18 games this year, including 11 Ivy games

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: anking Next Year’s Recruits
04-03-20 06:42 PM - Post#305729    
    In response to SomeGuy

There are certainly a lot of different ways to look at recruiting beyond just expected win shares of the class. Need is way, way up there for sure. That's one of the biggest reasons why I don't like Penn's class. You could argue that Penn's needs are just general talent, but if you're picking a spot, 4s and 5s seemed to be a real focus area. Whiffing entirely is almost inexcusable given the general consensus around what Simmons and MLL can bring to the table. I'm very, very concerned.

I also don't think the class is very good either. So, combine the two, and I think I'd have them a step behind Brown/Columbia?

Penn's already maxed out on strategy, which is a testament to Steve's coaching. I don't think there's a way to save the 2020-21 team. I'd be surprised if Penn were a Top 200 team next year.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: anking Next Year’s Recruits
04-04-20 12:42 AM - Post#305744    
    In response to mrjames

Pushing a bit here, what makes Brown’s class better than Penn’s? I know what gets publicized isn’t always accurate, and guys commit at different times that sometimes preclude offers they otherwise would get. But the interest on all 3 Penn guys seems to have been multiples of the Brown guys. Only Ndur seems to have had higher level interest, and he only had a few offers, compared to (reportedly) double digits and mid majors for all the Penn guys.

Note that I didn’t include the transfers, so no Meren. He would considerably help the class for Brown. Didn’t include Patel (Cornell) either.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: anking Next Year’s Recruits
04-04-20 08:10 AM - Post#305749    
    In response to SomeGuy

I like what Brown did to answer needs. Since CK graduated, Brown went from a team with a really strong interior (especially with Maia there as well) to one it was just trying to paper over with strong 6-4 to 6-7 guys playing way out of position. Gainey’s the closest thing Brown has had to an answer there, but I really like Moses, who finished second-team in the highest NEPSAC level (and produced a bit on the EYBL circuit). Ndur doesn’t seem to have had the same level of season (seems like a bit more of a projectable player at this stage) but has the athleticism to be a problem defensively. Between those two, I think Mike will find quality minutes that help solve the front court issue.

The other Brown need was point guard (wings/combo forwards remain a strength for the Bears - especially with Meren eligible now). Zach Taylor seems like a plausible answer there (productivity at NMH translates well to this league).

Penn and Brown kind of had the same needs, and I like Prince Moses the most of any of the combined set of recruits. Penn has a clear edge at lead guard in the haul, but Brown’s class at least has options across its needs, whereas Penn’s doesn’t.

You can probably argue Brown, Columbia and Penn any which way, and depending on what you think of Hooks, you might argue that Princeton is in that group as well. I just really don’t like how Penn hasn’t addressed its biggest need at all.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: anking Next Year’s Recruits
04-04-20 08:28 AM - Post#305750    
    In response to mrjames

It all depends on MLL. IF he is the real deal, they have a starting center for 3 years. Their soph class would then be a superstar class. If he is a miss, it's a disaster.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: anking Next Year’s Recruits
04-04-20 09:31 AM - Post#305752    
    In response to palestra38

As I’ve cautioned on here before, it’s important to paint recruits within the light of their senior year offers not their prior offers. That just helps keep expectations fair. My understanding is that the Top 150 status and high-major offers weren’t there during the senior year. The NEPSAC HM award would be indicative of a potentially productive Ivy player, but no lock. Certainly, you’d expect a Top 150 kid to at least make the 2nd team and likely 1st/challenge for POY.

This is a lot like the Matthue Cotton and Isaiah Kelly situations we’ve discussed previously.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: anking Next Year’s Recruits
04-04-20 09:51 AM - Post#305753    
    In response to mrjames

I'm basing my opinion on watching the kid play and warm up. He is something Penn has never had before---a center with speed and incredible jumping ability. He's not a high post center, and simply would not have fit in last year's scheme. Now if Wang comes back, a major question, Penn could use Wang at the high post and MLL at the low post. But having a guy of such great athleticism cannot be overlooked. He needs to be coached up and let loose---I don't worry about his recruiting rankings.

 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 776

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
04-04-20 09:52 AM - Post#305754    
    In response to mrjames

I have seen the top guys play a few times live mostly in atl events.


Basa ama is my favorite recruit. He has an incredible ceiling though admittedly will have to improve his body and outside game to realize it.

He is a cross between bruner and Atkinson physically at this stage though Paul had a similar body in high school.

At this point he plays more like Atkinson in high school also. He has a very nice touch inside and is very quick and long which is why power 5 press teams wanted him.

But he has some of bruners high school pre knee prob pop which was as good as any big I saw in that high school vintage. Atkinson was less quick twitch though he has improved this in college.

Ajogbor is a specimen. A physical beast. he does remind me of Lewis in high school though I think he is bigger. He is very athletic. While developing he doesn’t have the fluidity or touch of basa ama at least when I saw him. He can dunk on your head.

jake lanford of yale who hasn’t played yet bodied him very effectively in high school when a very good porter gaud team stuffed ajogbors Asheville team on the road. Jake is a big strong kid and admittedly had 2 years on him.
Porter gaud also had Aaron nesmith who cld be a lottery pick even this year and the kid at ut, a 6’7” pg so that helped but ajogbors team was loaded.

The other Yale kids I have seen on video. I am biased. But it’s a well rounded class with great potential at every position.

But at that top basa ama is quite the recruit. That I have seen with my own eyes.




 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 776

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
04-04-20 09:56 AM - Post#305755    
    In response to james

Also don’t discount Matt knowling.

I think he can play multiple positions bc of his strength and wingspan. My guess is if he was listed at 6’7” he would be in the top 250 bc of what he did in big high school events against high major guys.

The interesting thing is that his wingspan allows him to play that way. He is very smooth. Highly underrated based on what I saw.

 
james 
Masters Student
Posts: 776

Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
04-04-20 10:07 AM - Post#305756    
    In response to james

Lastly the buzz that Jordan bruner is getting on his transfer in basketball circles in the southeast is very good for Yale.

In some ways it’s too bad spring events are cancelled. But this bodes well for yale recruiting as does the success of Atkinson the pick up of basa ama.

I think the buzz is deserved and look forward to seeing Jordan with another year of knee rehab and maybe more resources to this end.

He really took it for the team individually this year and opened up the offense. he is a wonderful piece for his top 3 shld he not go to Europe or the d league.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
04-04-20 12:00 PM - Post#305760    
    In response to james

Ajogbor was easily a top 100, almost to 50 player. Has dropped to 150 or so. Anyone know why?

Chris Lewis followed a similar path, but that was because he of a back fracture that haunted him while at Harvard.



 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
04-04-20 01:08 PM - Post#305762    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Total speculation, but I still think the rankings get adjusted some based on where kids end up. So he may simply have dropped because he chose an Ivy. More often than not, it probably is an indicator that a top 100 player is a little over-ranked, but obviously that isn’t always the case. And it is probably less of an indicator now than it used to be, as Harvard in particular has pulled in a few of these kids.

 
Condor 
PhD Student
Posts: 1888

Reg: 11-21-04
04-04-20 01:27 PM - Post#305764    
    In response to SomeGuy

From my admittedly less sophisticated viewpoint than MrJames’, it seems to me that recruitment is much more complicated than the rankings. Jones always seems to get a top-level player, but most of his recruits seem to be good but typical Ivy talent. More importantly, he seems to get the most out of what he has. I think that all the Ivy’s manage as well as they can considering their constraints. Harvard is my major mystery. With seemingly lesser talent, it appears that Amaker got better results in his early Harvard years. Without Aiken/Towns he still had 2-4*/2-3* Seniors, 1-3* Junior, 1-4* Soph, and 1-4*/1-3* Fr, or a total of 4-4* & 4-3* in addition to Juzang, Djuricic, Kirkwood, Catchings, Forbes, and Tretout. If the rankings mean anything, I would think that the law of averages would have made Harvard by far the best team in the Ivy’s the last couple of years, and yet they haven’t gone to the tournament once with one of the most anticipated Ivy classes since the 70’s. I don’t prescribe to the “Amaker is a bad coach” idea because of his early success. I also don’t buy into the injury theories. I thought Penn’s injuries had a bigger impact because Penn simply does not have the depth of Harvard. I know many Harvard fans would fight me on this, but I remain surprised that Harvard’s performance makes it a discussion.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
04-04-20 03:47 PM - Post#305775    
    In response to Condor

No one on here is an expert to pick success based on recruits. I will take the under on Penn being ranked top 200.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
04-04-20 04:04 PM - Post#305777    
    In response to Condor

Hey, we're having fun talking about sports again!

On the MLL stuff, I'm sharing more of what I've heard than my own opinion (though the NERR stuff is VERY credible when it comes to tracking to Ivy performance, and MLL backed up big time there as well). And on the "dropped because he chose Ivy phenomenon," more often than not, the causality works like: kid chooses Ivy despite early high ranking and good offers because those offers no longer exist, and the commitment to an Ivy causes the rankings outlet to revisit that stale ranking (only more recently have multiple Ivies starting winning battles against HMs when those HM offers still exist). But TO BE CLEAR, MLL was still 25th at NERR, still got an HM All-NEPSAC and deserved to be in that tier where you'd expect him to be a good, productive Ivy player at some point. Just not a star, like you'd expect out of a Top 10-20 guy (depending on the depth of the New England class that year).

What is key is to look at the offers that are still there when the kid made the choice...

Ajogbor is still Top 75 at 247Sports internal rankings (that's an outlier, though, just like ESPN's was for Lewis), and I do think a Lewis-like trajectory is a good expectation (i.e. sophomore year and beyond star).

As for Harvard's 2016 class... it won the most Ivy games during its four years of any team (42) and was the only Ivy team to win 10 games each year. It had to play two title games on the road (thems the breaks) including one where it lost the POY down the stretch in a three-point loss and another where the opponents hit an insane rate on jumpers (yolo). It also got essentially zero help from the classes preceding it, and despite all the injuries, the class finished with 47 WS (seven shy of the initial projection). It also was the favorite to win the Ivy bid this season.

 
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