palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-10-20 07:46 AM - Post#306082
In response to OldBig5
Well, pretty much everything rides on that. Mike thinks he is unlikely to step from not playing to being a star level player in the League. There's certainly an argument to be made that rarely does a player go from not playing to being a star, but the circumstances here are not typical in that he played behind a POY level player, and really has a different game. To me, it's all about the coaching---will Steve coach his system or to his talent? I think he's a good enough coach to adapt.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Ranking Next Year’s Recruits
04-10-20 10:16 AM - Post#306083
In response to palestra38
Listen, it's totally fair if you don't agree with the argument, but the way you stated the argument needs to be tweaked.
MLL was not just playing behind a once in a generation player. He was playing behind a not so once-in-a-generation backup.
Hey, we both saw the Donald Moxley experience. This isn't that. The better analog for that would be Jarrod stepping into an expanded role and thriving. I'm skeptical, but I would rate it as slightly more likely than MLL becoming average in his sophomore year.
But we will see.
Or we will all die without ever watching sports again. Either/or.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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04-10-20 10:19 AM - Post#306084
In response to Jeff2sf
Jarrod played 6 minutes a game and we have had 3 years to see his limitations. I'd take that bet. If MLL isn't average it's going to be a very long season for Penn.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-10-20 10:21 AM - Post#306085
In response to Quakers03
I can't possibly bet something where both things I feel are pretty remote. Like 11% to 10%?
Anyway, I agree with your assessment of Jarrod... which is the whole point of the concern with MLL.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-10-20 10:26 AM - Post#306086
In response to Jeff2sf
Except the need for those 5 minutes a game was to not make mistakes--that's not the role for a freshman. The fact that Jarrod made those mistakes doesn't mean MLL should have been plunked down there--that was the entire Charlie Copp disaster--he was a decent player almost destroyed by having to come in and not make mistakes. I agree this isn't a Moxley situation, but it's not a Abe Orkorududu either--this kid can play. But it's really a whole new team next year and it will take some time.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2272
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-10-20 10:48 AM - Post#306088
In response to palestra38
There's certainly an argument to be made that rarely does a player go from not playing to being a star.
For Princeton, Caruso and then Stephens jumped from hardly playing to being a standout.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 789
Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
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04-10-20 10:49 AM - Post#306090
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Good points
Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder.
Ajogbar has high major frame and athleticism. As did Lewis. Actually I think he is even bigger standing next to both but both huge frames at that age
And very athletic. Basa ama is slighter. Very long. More like sears in that regard physically
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-10-20 11:16 AM - Post#306092
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Both of those two players (and others in the Ivies like Wesley Saunders) spent a season playing a third or more of team minutes before their starring season. For Stephens and Saunders that was their freshman year, for Caruso, that was his sophomore year. Either way, none of those players went directly from not playing at all to starring the next season.
If we're thinking about odds of things happening, there would be good odds for MLL to follow the Caruso path next year and play 30-40% of team minutes and maybe even be a starter by the end of the year. The problem is, without Wang, Penn doesn't have that luxury to bring him along like that. And the odds of a guy going from playing not at all to being a productive, 75+% min player are slim. That's why I would have wanted to see some viable freshmen... just more lotto tickets to eat minutes productively.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-10-20 11:21 AM - Post#306093
In response to james
The sneaky part I like most about the Harvard and Yale classes is the fits... Yale loses Bruner and Monroe, and nabs Basa Ama and Gharram. Harvard loses Lewis, Baker, Aiken/Juzang and nabs Ajogbor, Hemmings and Nelson. There's a ton of talent there, too, but the fit is excellent.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-10-20 11:35 AM - Post#306096
In response to mrjames
Questions for a couple of posters. For mrjames, is there any reason why MLL can’t become something like Jaylan Gainey as a soph? Neither guy played much freshman year. Gainey became a good rim protector and efficient (though limited) scorer as a soph, and a starter about midway through the year.
For P38, is that enough? If the idea is that MLL will be a lead offensive player next year, I think we are very likely to be disappointed. But if the idea is that he is a rim protector and whatever he gives us on offense is gravy, we could be very happy.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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Ranking Next Year’s Recruits
04-10-20 11:37 AM - Post#306098
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
There's certainly an argument to be made that rarely does a player go from not playing to being a star.
For Princeton, Caruso and then Stephens jumped from hardly playing to being a standout.
Maybe the better analogue would be Aririguzoh, who was basically not much more than a project his first two years, then made a huge leap over the summer between his sophomore and junior seasons and flourished during his last two years.
I had been hoping that Simmons would make a similar leap, but he didn't show much, if any improvement as a junior.
Edited by weinhauers_ghost on 04-10-20 11:38 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-10-20 11:43 AM - Post#306100
In response to SomeGuy
I want to see Penn get out and run as much as they can next year---we have a team that looks far more like the late '70s teams and the Allen-Maloney teams than any of our subsequent teams (not that I'm saying Dingle is the next Jerome Allen but his numbers except for FT shooting compare favorably with Allen as a freshman). We'll have a bunch of guys who can get out and run and either MLL can be with them to slam dunk or kick it out to a number of guys like Martz and Dingle who can shoot the 3. I want major defensive pressure next year and look for our offense to come from our defense as much as possible. I think we will struggle in the half court until we find a true PG. But we have a lot of guys who can run and shoot.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-10-20 11:45 AM - Post#306101
In response to Quakers03
I continue to think that we are way too hard on Jarrod here (and underestimating him). Small sample, but he had a higher ORAT and WS/40 than any of the other big men his freshman year (including AJ), and he had a better ORAT and the same WS/40 As Wang in his soph year.
Statistically, his only bad year was his junior year. What was different? He missed his 3s and he turned the ball over a lot more. Just a guess, but I think the difference may have been no Max R. Freshman and sophomore year, Simmons got to play more when someone else was playing the 5. Junior year, he almost always was the 5.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-10-20 11:53 AM - Post#306102
In response to palestra38
I assume you just mean shooting numbers? Allen as a freshman was better at everything else than Dingle (though rebounds were surprisingly close).
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Ranking Next Year’s Recruits
04-10-20 12:26 PM - Post#306106
In response to SomeGuy
Allen had 3.2 to 2.3 assists but had more turnovers. Dingle's defense really came on at the end of the season too, as did his ball handling. But overall, the numbers all around are in the same ballpark...and Allen was playing with Chambers, who was really good as a senior.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-10-20 12:46 PM - Post#306110
In response to Quakers03
If MLL isn't average it's going to be a very long season for Penn.
Define average. He will never be the offensive force AJ was. But there are other ways to win. see; Owens, Geoff. There are actually some things MLL either is, or will likely do better, than AJ. Like being a dominant defensive rebounder and rim protector. AJ was good at both, but MLL could be special. As P38 and I have pointed out, MLL has already shown unusual ability at his size to run the floor and pass on the break. If Penn becomes a real running offense, MLL will be an asset.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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Ranking Next Year’s Recruits
04-10-20 12:48 PM - Post#306112
In response to Streamers
Average in that he plays at least 25 minutes a game, shows a little on offense, and is a steadying defensive presence. I've got to be honest, if this transfer rule goes into effect, none if it might matter anyway. I cannot believe this is going to be allowed to happen. Let the poaching commence.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-10-20 02:00 PM - Post#306116
In response to SomeGuy
Gainey is realistic, IMO. I mean... maybe not full Gainey (CK and Zena were the only two other Ivy players in the KP era to be around Gainey's block rate...), but the general model of early season rotation player to Ivy starter with plus-rim defending and rebounding but invisible offensively unless set up to score... that seems like a reasonable possible outcome.
Problem is... even that scenario creates other problems. The reason why you can play Martz and Monroe together (in about 35% of Penn's lineup minutes down the stretch) or Scott and Martz (20% more lineup minutes) or ALL THREE TOGETHER (15% lineup minutes) is because you have high usage guys playing with them to cover for their low usage offensively. If you add a low usage post to the floor, you need to compensate with a high-usage guard.
So, MLL being Gainey is possible, but I still think you need Wang to come back strong, because usage from that position allows you to play the talent you want to play around that spot.
Jordan Dingle and Mike Wang is the entire list of Penn players returning that have used more than 17% of possessions successfully... spreading usage across players will be key next year.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-10-20 03:09 PM - Post#306117
In response to mrjames
Bit of a small sample, but Martz clicked up to 17% while Betley was out, with no loss of efficiency (ORAT of 107 or better 4 out of 5 games). I think he’ll be fine, though his usage may never exceed the Betley level (21% or so).
Doesn’t fit Donahue’s offensive MO, but Dingle seems like a threat to go full Matt Morgan/Mike Smith if Donahue lets him. I could see a scenario where MLL, Martz, Scott, and Monroe are out there a lot with Dingle, and Dingle just eats a lot of those extra possessions you are talking about.
That said, I think the evidence points to confidence that Wang is the 5 on offense next year.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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04-10-20 03:16 PM - Post#306118
In response to SomeGuy
Bit of a small sample, but Martz clicked up to 17% while Betley was out, with no loss of efficiency (ORAT of 107 or better 4 out of 5 games). I think he’ll be fine, though his usage may never exceed the Betley level (21% or so).
Doesn’t fit Donahue’s offensive MO, but Dingle seems like a threat to go full Matt Morgan/Mike Smith if Donahue lets him. I could see a scenario where MLL, Martz, Scott, and Monroe are out there a lot with Dingle, and Dingle just eats a lot of those extra possessions you are talking about.
That said, I think the evidence points to confidence that Wang is the 5 on offense next year.
Speaking of Wang, does anyone know whether he's gone back home to China or is still in the U.S.? Here's an ESPN piece on some of the choices the pandemic has forced international student-athletes to make.
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