Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-04-20 12:37 PM - Post#305761
It seems some of the other threads digressed from their topics, so I decided to start a new thread.
It seems to me that the enthusiasm for Charles is based on his performance during the scrimmages and/or practice. He appears to have a great shot and will be an excellent 3-point shooter for us. He, Martz, and hopefully, Wang and Washington, will provide offense from beyond the arc. That said, it seems like our projections for Charles are founded on limited data.
For those that saw him play, how do you think he will fare once he plays in an actual game? Is he strictly a catch and shoot, does he create his own offense, is he a good defender, etc.
As for the centers, AJ has been the difference maker for the last four years. As a freshman, I recall being amazed at how well he played especially for a big. It is not surprising that SD played him 35 mpg last season, and any coach would have been all-in on AJ in his final season. It will be interesting to see how much we miss him next year. If MrJames’ assessment is correct, we will be a below average team without him. He is basing that largely on our 141 ranking and the unknowns about our talent especially at the big F position.
On the 141 ranking and the likelihood that we will regress, I think we should also consider that against good teams, Penn was arguably the best team in the Ivy’s. Against weak teams, inexplicably they appeared to be one of the worst. Beyond calling them a high variance team, I still have difficulty understanding their performance. I suspect the high reliance on freshmen resulted in the strange results. Also, while Betley was a good contributor, I do not believe he was the player we had two years ago. Entering the tournament, I felt like the freshmen were becoming more mature players, and I believed we would have won the ILT. Regardless, while I respect the stats, and MrJames is our best stats guy, I am still not certain that the 141 ranking is the best benchmark to measure our regression.
A Dingle, Martz, Scott, Monroe, Washington, Charles, and hopefully, Wang, base is not too bad especially compared to the rest of the league. That brings us to Simmons and MLL. I think both will get major minutes. Also, maybe Jackson will see some more time. Regardless, we are entering the complete unknown as are most of the Ivy teams. Simmons and Wang are our only experienced bigs, and Simmons’ minutes were all as a “just don’t mess up†substitute or sidekick for AJ. As noted by others, that is no disgrace as AJ was that good. While I expect MLL to get major minutes, I would be surprised if he is our starter. I know Simmons will not be AJ, but I doubt he will be the Simmons we saw the last three seasons. While MLL doesn’t have much game experience, he did get to practice against AJ for a year.
Most of us had given up on Silpe and Wood before their senior seasons. Also, Scott certainly raised his game this year. At this point, I wouldn’t give up on any of SD’s players. Also, the notion that we have not recruited well at the big position is confusing to me. Wang and Simmons were 3*, and MLL was a 4*, and before that we got AJ (3*). As for 20-21, it seems we should give the recruiting/transfer efforts some time before we declare this a disaster.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: More on next year & Jonah Charles/centers
04-04-20 01:29 PM - Post#305765
In response to Condor
We will learn a lot this year. Some evidence that mrjames might be right: our Pomeroy rating the last year without AJ was 253 overall, 226 on defense. We jumped in both the moment he walked in the door. We jumped about 100 spots defensively his first year, and have been no worse than 137 during his 4 years (twice in the top 100). There is some evidence that we have simply had a transcendent player. So it is possible we will go right back where we were.
More bad evidence is that only Scott and Martz were efficient for us offensively among the returnees. Will be interesting to see if they can stay efficient and carry more burden. Dingle ended up in the range where to me it isn’t a red flag given his usage rate. But he will need to get better (I assume he will). Monroe is similar (with lower usage).
While there are some bad indicators, if the team gets Wang and Washington healthy and producing like they did OOC as freshmen, things will look a lot better.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: More on next year & Jonah Charles/centers
04-04-20 02:47 PM - Post#305770
In response to SomeGuy
Most of the time, the team struggled when AJ was off the court. Of course, when you design an offense around such a unique player, it is bound to break down when he isn’t on the court. I like what I saw from the freshmen, and I think they will all improve. Hopefully, we will add some healthy pieces. We will not look like last year, but maybe we will be closer to a version of SD’s good Cornell team. I can see some regression, but not the collapse that MrJames sees.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-04-20 03:40 PM - Post#305773
In response to Condor
The hype on Jonah Charles didn't come from recruitment, it came from Steve Donahue, who publicy said in the pre season he would play a lot this year. Our expectations were set by the Head Coach, not any observations from here.
Max didn't play because he didn't know the plays, something we have seen before. Once he learns where to be and when, he will play a lot. That also comes from public comments by the HC.
Remember, our recruiting classes always suck relative to H and Y according to the "experts". Somehow we always seem to compete with much better teams.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-04-20 04:54 PM - Post#305778
In response to PennFan10
Thank you, PF10. I admittedly missed those SD comments. Now the hype is making sense.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-04-20 05:21 PM - Post#305780
In response to PennFan10
I think Max is going to be a helluva player.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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More on next year & Jonah Charles/centers
04-04-20 06:36 PM - Post#305787
In response to palestra38
I think Max is going to be a helluva player.
I hope you're right, P38. The thing I've seen from him in limited minutes that I like is a defensive mean streak. To my thinking this is essential for a shot blocker/rim protector.
I am curious to see how and where he fits into a retooled offense. I'm not sure he's a pure, back-to-the-basket post-up guy, and I haven't seen enough of him to get a sense of where his offensive strengths are.
Edited by weinhauers_ghost on 04-04-20 06:37 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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04-04-20 06:47 PM - Post#305789
In response to weinhauers_ghost
I am absolutely not trying to be snarky, but how can a PG recruit from an Ivy feeder school like Northfield Mt. Hermon not know the plays? Ok, how can he not know them in February? If he's a stalwart on defense, how about putting MLL out there when AJ is sitting and running a different offense, or at least plays he "knows."
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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More on next year & Jonah Charles/centers
04-04-20 06:52 PM - Post#305790
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I am absolutely not trying to be snarky, but how can a PG recruit from an Ivy feeder school like Northfield Mt. Hermon not know the plays? Ok, how can he not know them in February? If he's a stalwart on defense, how about putting MLL out there when AJ is sitting and running a different offense, or at least plays he "knows."
I think it's less a question of "not knowing the plays" than just having a different skill set than AJ did. You're seriously going to plug in a guy as a freshman reserve and expect exactly the same performance as your first team All Ivy star? That's unrealistic.
And has been mentioned upthread, the combination of different skill set and inexperience was most likely what kept MLL from cracking the rotation.
Edited by weinhauers_ghost on 04-04-20 06:53 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: More on next year & Jonah Charles/centers
04-05-20 08:46 AM - Post#305804
In response to weinhauers_ghost
From what little we did see of MLL on the court, in addition to his potential as a rim protector, we saw that he runs the floor really well for a guy his size and knows how to finish on the break. That’s one way to help the offense, when he’s not grabbing the rebounds himself.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Re: More on next year & Jonah Charles/centers
04-05-20 10:04 AM - Post#305811
In response to weinhauers_ghost
I am absolutely not trying to be snarky, but how can a PG recruit from an Ivy feeder school like Northfield Mt. Hermon not know the plays? Ok, how can he not know them in February? If he's a stalwart on defense, how about putting MLL out there when AJ is sitting and running a different offense, or at least plays he "knows."
I think it's less a question of "not knowing the plays" than just having a different skill set than AJ did. You're seriously going to plug in a guy as a freshman reserve and expect exactly the same performance as your first team All Ivy star? That's unrealistic.
And has been mentioned upthread, the combination of different skill set and inexperience was most likely what kept MLL from cracking the rotation.
I agree with both of you.
HDG, that was a good question, one I was thinking about also.
WG's explanation makes sense.
Also, when it's clear that the right thing was to maximize AJ's minutes and impact, how many minutes did that leave MLL anyway?
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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04-05-20 10:15 AM - Post#305816
In response to TheLine
One thing is certain, Steve is going to be tested because AJ and MLL are indeed very different players. It will be interesting to see how the offense changes to fit the talent.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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More on next year & Jonah Charles/centers
04-05-20 11:18 AM - Post#305823
In response to Quakers03
Chris Egi is also really really smart. Highest GPA on the squad, awards, etc. He just didn't seem to fit into Amaker's offense. The ball just stuck with him and movement was reduced. I was frustrated that Amaker couldn't find a role for him, against certain lineups or when Chris Lewis was sitting. Never happened. Really felt bad for Chris. Don't know if circumstances are similar here.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 04-05-20 11:19 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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04-05-20 11:22 AM - Post#305824
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Sorry, the first part of my submission got deleted. I was wondering whether MLL is like Chris Egi. Egi was possibly the most athletic 6'8" player in the league. He could defend, block shots, was strong and could he leap. There's video of him clearing 2 or 3 taller teammates for a dunk - as in jumping completely over their heads with his entire body. Amaker never found a spot for Chris. Maybe the ball stuck with him or he didn't switch on defense. Really a shame. It wasn't like Chris didn't know basketball. He played in the rotation at Montverde with Ben Simmons when they won the national championship. Wondering if MLL needs to overcome same things.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-05-20 11:32 AM - Post#305826
In response to Quakers03
I am not 100% convinced that MLL won’t play center in the way that AJ, Jarrod, Max R, and DNH have for Steve. I agree that the skill set seems different, and I was advocating finding ways to get him on the floor as a rim protector who could run the floor and stay out of the way on offense this past year. But reading some of AJ’s comments (about how hard it is learning to be a Steve 5 man and how MLL is coming along), and watching warmups (where MLL’s job seemed to be to follow AJ around and do whatever he did), it seemed like at least for last year the vision seemed to be developing MLL into a system fit. I would presume that, at least next year, it would look more like Jarrod than anything else, where the position still goes to the same spots, but isn’t a focal point of the offense in the same way. Just a guess though. They could have used that approach while AJ was around to maintain consistency.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-05-20 11:35 AM - Post#305827
In response to SomeGuy
I don't see Penn making the Ivy Tournament if Simmons is playing 25 or more minutes a game.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-05-20 11:45 AM - Post#305828
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
One factor in Egi’s experience may be how well Harvard has been recruiting in recent years. If Egi doesn’t fit, there are 8 other highly rated Ivy recruits who do. Makes it more likely that you get a 3-4 star guy who doesn’t fit. A lot of the other schools in the league absolutely need an Egi to fit.
That’s part of why I think we’ll see MLL out there next year. More rides on it. I’m not convinced they’ll change the role of the 5 just to fit him, but that is because I see some evidence they think he can play the role. If they have to use him differently to get him out there, I think they will.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-05-20 11:53 AM - Post#305830
In response to palestra38
I just meant that I could see soph MLL playing the 5 spot on offense similarly to how Jarrod does (but without the 3s). Agreed that MLL will push for time next year.
However, I won’t go so far as to say they won’t make it with Jarrod playing 25 — that 4th spot will be wide open. And I think Jarrod might be a different player if he gets to play through mistakes. He may not let them get to him in the same way if he isn’t taking a seat for AJ in 90 seconds.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-05-20 12:39 PM - Post#305831
In response to SomeGuy
That's the glass half full explanation. The other is that he makes those mistakes with such frequency that leaving him in to make them at the rate he has shown to make mistakes will just kill us.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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04-05-20 12:47 PM - Post#305832
In response to palestra38
I am hoping against hope that this isn't the case. I want to see Simmons succeed and play well consistently. The time to make that leap was over the summer before this past season, and the results we saw showed that it didn't happen.
I am not optimistic that such a leap is likely to come this late in his career.
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