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Username Post: More on next year & Jonah Charles/centers        (Topic#24230)
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 5210

Reg: 11-22-04
04-05-20 02:05 PM - Post#305834    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

But again, AJ took up a lot of oxygen for Jarrod, just like he did for MLL. Offensively, AJ always played best as the lone big. He could function with Max, because Max could play the high post effectively, allowing AJ to play more like a stretch forward. And he could function with Wang because Wang had more of a perimeter guard game. But the mix with Jarrod on offense was tougher, so they only really did it when there was a post threat like Aririgozuh or Atkinson where they needed the size on defense. So Jarrod never got to play for long stretches where the job was his.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 24171

Reg: 11-21-04
04-05-20 02:08 PM - Post#305835    
    In response to SomeGuy

Agreed, but he made critical mistakes with the ball and got eaten up on defense.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 5210

Reg: 11-22-04
04-05-20 02:17 PM - Post#305837    
    In response to palestra38

Not sure what it means, but while AJ and Jarrod together on offense didn’t work, I thought Simmons played best defensively WITH AJ. Even guarding guys like Atkinson, Simmons seemed best if he could guard the post with AJ lurking to help. And AJ was so smart and moved so well defensively that he could hedge to help and still get out to Bruner when the ball went out that way.

So I wonder again if Simmons’ best defensive role is playing with MLL. We may not have the horses to do that and deal with fouls (will need a healthy Wang plus maybe some help from Jackson). And of course figuring out how to use both on offense together (we’re having enough debate over how to use one of them) is an issue.

But yes, alone Simmons got burned defensively quite a bit, and i’ll throw in that he didn’t rebound nearly enough, either. MLL’s sample sizes are too small to know for certain, but he rebounded extremely well in limited opportunities.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 24171

Reg: 11-21-04
04-05-20 02:27 PM - Post#305838    
    In response to SomeGuy

Jackson? No, that is not going to happen. Unless we're having a Malcolm Washington-type season.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2701

Reg: 02-15-15
04-05-20 02:35 PM - Post#305839    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

"doesnt' know the plays" is code for "Steve doesn't trust him". The quickest way to a DNP is to not have earned your coaches trust. Its not just about where to be on a play, its when to be there and how to move in conjunction with your teammates. Clearly SD didn't trust MLL during the season for whatever reason. We have seen many examples of players who go from DNP to starter minutes. MLL will be one of them.

Here are quotes on MLL:

Early October:

This season’s five freshmen—guards Jordan Dingle, Jonah Charles, and Lucas Monroe, and forwards Max Martz and Max Lorca-Lloyd—can all “play at a very high level,” Donahue says. The coach, who previously led Boston College and took Cornell to the Sweet 16, adds, “I can’t imagine I’ve ever brought in a better class, really at any place I’ve ever been.”

November 3:

Donahue called Lorca-Lloyd “obviously the future.” Like any freshman, he faces an adjustment moving up to Division I hoops, and Donahue’s offense takes some studying. But once he has it down, he’ll play.

December 9th:

"We've rolled with [junior forward] Jarrod [Simmons] for most of the year because of his experience," Donahue said. "That being said, Max is a great player, and he will be a great player here at Penn. Whether it's three weeks from now or three months from now, I think you'll see Max become a big part of what we're doing once he's ready."

December 19th: AJ

“He’s being asked to play such a tough role — a Steve Donahue 5-man is no easy task," Brodeur said. "Me and Jarrod [Simmons], the two rotation big men, we’re trying to incorporate him in practice, get him reps that he needs to get to where he’s going to need to be to take over that spot. But you can see with the athleticism, the length, he has all the intangibles that you don’t see too often in the Ivy League.”

Jan 27th:

“I think over the last two months, if you asked me our most improved player, it’s probably Max Lorca-Lloyd. I think he has a chance to make a difference on both sides of the ball,” Donahue said. “He’s probably our most highly recruited kid we’ve ever got here. He’s got an incredible desire to be great, and he works his tail off. It was apparent that we needed something to help us on both sides of the ball, and I thought he brought that.”



 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 5210

Reg: 11-22-04
04-05-20 03:02 PM - Post#305840    
    In response to PennFan10

Is there somewhere where anyone actually said he “doesn’t know the plays,” or are you extrapolating from these quotes and the lack of playing time? When I read the quotes, I don’t see that (and these quotes are why I think he may well play the 5 spot in Steve’s offense, rather than the offense changing to fit him).


 
OldBig5 
Junior
Posts: 264

Age: 62
Reg: 02-18-18
04-05-20 08:10 PM - Post#305855    
    In response to SomeGuy

I'm getting excited about next year. I know they will miss AJ. He did it all. Started plays. Finished plays. High post. Low post. Effective on defense. But sometimes when you lose a top player like that others get more of a chance and do well.

All 5 sophomores could contribute. Two started this year and Monroe also played some key minutes. Add in the most prized recruit (MLL) and Charles who seems to be a shooter and it seems a nucleus that can keep us excited for three years, Maybe 2 out of Wang/Williams/Washington (the W boys) can play effective minutes also? We are due for a break from the injuries. Add in some Scott and Simmons (the S boys) and the freshmen and I think the team will be good.

 
OldBig5 
Junior
Posts: 264

Age: 62
Reg: 02-18-18
04-05-20 08:12 PM - Post#305856    
    In response to SomeGuy

  • SomeGuy Said:
Is there somewhere where anyone actually said he “doesn’t know the plays,” or are you extrapolating from these quotes and the lack of playing time? When I read the quotes, I don’t see that (and these quotes are why I think he may well play the 5 spot in Steve’s offense, rather than the offense changing to fit him).



Most coaches don't trust freshmen. If they have upper class alternatives as Steve did with Simmons they usually roll with that guy. They might say this or that to the media but it's all the same. That's why all the playing time Dingle and Martz got was impressive.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2701

Reg: 02-15-15
04-05-20 11:09 PM - Post#305866    
    In response to SomeGuy

No one is going to come out publicly and say a player doesn't know the plays. SD says here "...he'll play when he's ready". I am sure he will be given every chance to take over the starting spot next season.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 5210

Reg: 11-22-04
04-06-20 11:31 PM - Post#305920    
    In response to PennFan10

On the recruiting classes, I wanted to take a second to kind of quantify how well our freshmen played this year. Admittedly it was a big year for veterans with the senior class throughout the league. But we got more than twice as many win shares from our freshman class than any other team in the league. To put it even more starkly, Max Martz had 2.0 win shares himself. Harvard, at 2.1, was the only team that got more win shares than Martz from their entire freshman class combined.

 
Condor 
PhD Student
Posts: 1661

Reg: 11-21-04
04-07-20 11:49 AM - Post#305932    
    In response to SomeGuy

My interpretation is that our freshmen helped us win despite their lack of experience, and the freshmen on other teams didn’t get significant play which may or may not suggest any comparison going forward. Is this correct, or does win share somehow adjust for playing time?

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 5210

Reg: 11-22-04
04-07-20 01:10 PM - Post#305934    
    In response to Condor

Win shares is just a raw total. Penn had 1857 minutes from the freshmen. Columbia was the only other team to break 1000.

Looking at win shares per minute of team play, it is closer. Penn is third, a shade behind Harvard and well behind Yale.

As often seems to be the case with Yale, their backups are statistically comparable to the starters. So per minute by individual player. August Mahoney was clearly the best freshman in the league (he had the same WS per minute as Bruner). That is why I think Yale won’t lose much with Mahoney stepping into the starting lineup for Monroe. But Martz was clearly next in the league.

In terms of teams that did not do well with their freshmen this year, Columbia was 2nd in freshmen minutes and Brown 3rd, yet they were 7th (Brown) and 8th (Columbia) in total freshman win shares. And Columbia was actually negative if you take away Forrest.

 
Stuart Suss 
PhD Student
Posts: 1246

Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
04-07-20 02:32 PM - Post#305944    
    In response to SomeGuy

It is for debates like this that I have offered efficiency numbers.

For clarification:
1. WS in my table is not Win Shares, it is Berri's Win Score, as revised in 2011.

2. The GS is the Hollinger Game Score.

3. The Adj WS and Adj GS are the raw numbers, adjusted by me to equate the pace at which the individual teams play.

4.. These numbers are cumulative, so you might wish to look at the WS/40 and GS/40 which calculate the numbers on a "per 40 minute" basis. This might show underutilized players. On the other hand, some players could not sustain their numbers with increased playing time.

5. The table does not identify freshmen. You will need to identify them on your own.


 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 3080
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
04-07-20 05:11 PM - Post#305952    
    In response to Stuart Suss

I'm frustrated with the current results of our 2017 and 2018 recruiting classes, but I think the 2019 class is fantastic. I know a lot of other frosh from other schools didn't play, but personally I would take Penn's class over the rest in a heart beat and it isn't close.

 
OldBig5 
Junior
Posts: 264

Age: 62
Reg: 02-18-18
04-07-20 07:23 PM - Post#305956    
    In response to Mike Porter

  • Mike Porter Said:
I'm frustrated with the current results of our 2017 and 2018 recruiting classes, but I think the 2019 class is fantastic. I know a lot of other frosh from other schools didn't play, but personally I would take Penn's class over the rest in a heart beat and it isn't close.


Amen. And we have one guy who didn't play much and another who didn't play at all.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5802

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
04-08-20 01:21 PM - Post#306010    
    In response to OldBig5

From RealGM, here are the percent of win shares by class and raw win shares by class:

Team FR SO JR SR
BU 2% 30% 19% 48%
COM 3% 17% 23% 57%
COR 15% 16% 51% 18%
DART 3% 24% 41% 32%
HAR 12% 19% 20% 49%
PENN 29% 1% 9% 61%
PRIN 10% 43% 21% 26%
YALE 7% 12% 53% 28%

Team FR SO JR SR Total
BU 0.3 3.8 2.4 6.1 12.6
COM 0.3 1.7 2.3 5.7 10
COR 1.7 1.8 5.9 2.1 11.5
DART 0.5 3.7 6.3 5 15.5
HAR 2.3 3.7 4 9.6 19.6
PENN 4.6 0.2 1.5 9.8 16.1
PRIN 1.6 6.9 3.3 4.1 15.9
YALE 1.7 3.1 13.5 7.2 25.5

Penn had double the number of win shares from the freshman class than the next closest team (Harvard) and essentially double the percent of win shares coming from the freshman class than the next closest team (Cornell). At the same time, it had the most win shares coming from a senior class (barely over Harvard - 9.8 vs. 9.6) and the highest percentage of win shares coming from the senior class (barely over Columbia - 61% vs 57%).

In terms of returning win shares (which is in the same family as returning poss weighted mins and other metrics used to project next season), here is how the Ivies stack up:

Team Ret WS
BU 6.5
COM 4.3
COR 9.4
DART 10.5
HAR 10.0
PENN 6.3
PRIN 11.8
YALE 18.3

Obviously, this is a bit incomplete, because "answers" are easier for some teams to find than others. Naturally, upperclassmen see their win shares rise both due to more playing time and more production while playing. So, I like to add a couple lenses to see how many different players contributed to the win share total (more players means more opportunities to have a player naturally earn more win shares). The first lens is just all FR-JR players that got at least one win share (a baseline level of "productivity"). The second is graded where 0.5WS for a frosh, 1.0 for a soph and 1.5 for a jr is seen as good enough:

Team Ret WS 1+ Graded
BU 6.5 3 3
COM 4.3 2 2
COR 9.4 4 5
DART 10.5 3 3
HAR 10.0 5 6
PENN 6.3 4 3
PRIN 11.8 5 6
YALE 18.3 6 5

As you can see, a team like Dartmouth might be a bit in trouble in this view (10.5 returning win shares is great, but spread across only three productive people) whereas a team like Cornell might be more poised to take a step forward (more "productive" players with potential capacity to grow).

Back to the original point, though, certainly Penn's 2019 class has been the most productive thus far, and its 2017 and 2018 classes have been easily the league's worst.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 5210

Reg: 11-22-04
04-08-20 02:20 PM - Post#306017    
    In response to mrjames

Note, however, that in 2018-19 Penn’s freshman class (the current sophs) also led the league in freshman win shares by a significant margin. Penn’s class doubled everyone but Harvard and Columbia. So I think just looking at what returns from this past year doesn’t provide a complete picture.



 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5802

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
04-08-20 02:33 PM - Post#306019    
    In response to SomeGuy

Yes. If Penn gets Wang and Washington to throw in 75% or so team minutes each at their non-conf, freshman year production, this is a VERY different conversation.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 5210

Reg: 11-22-04
04-19-20 03:28 PM - Post#306379    
    In response to mrjames

To further quantify Penn’s soph class, even with Wang not playing a minute this year and Washington playing sparingly (likely qualifying for an extra year as well), the class still has more total win shares than Yale or Cornell’s soph class, and about the same number as Columbia. And the soph year numbers for Harvard, Brown, and Dartmouth all just barely exceeded what the Penn sophs got as freshmen. Only Princeton’s class has really stepped forward as better than Penn’s so far.

Just another way of looking at the numbers — totally agree that Penn’s sophs had the worst year as sophs among these classes. I also recognize that everyone’s numbers are impacted by health (Llewelyn, Catchings, Ellis all leap to mind as guys who have lost time), and Wang may be in the process of proving Jeff2SF’s point that health is a skill.

 
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