penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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07-01-20 02:10 PM - Post#309842
In response to palestra38
That is not necessarily true.
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Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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07-01-20 02:15 PM - Post#309843
In response to Bryan
Condor, I wasn't able to follow your conclusion on the likelihood of dying from Covid-19 for those age 18-44 with no underlying health conditions. If it's 0.34% for the combined age group and 96.4% of the deaths are for those with an underlying health condition, don't you need to know what portion of those age 18-44 have an underlying health condition to determine the chance of death for those without an underlying condition? To take an extreme (and certainly incorrect) example, if 96.4% of the population age 18-44 had an underlying condition then the risk of dying would be the same 0.34% for both those with and without an underlying condition, right? Am I missing something?
Hello Bryan,
I was not trying to extrapolate from the numbers to make conclusions about one’s chances of infection and death for the total population. However, 96.4% of confirmed deaths in NYC in the age range of 18-44 did have underlying conditions. In the older groups, the percentage was higher. The numbers suggest that healthy individuals, i.e. those who do not suffer from an underlying health conditions, have a significant probability for survival if infected with the covid-19 virus regardless of age.
It also suggests that those with underlying conditions need to be especially diligent in their efforts to socially distance themselves, and others need to be respectful of the potential danger they could inflict on this group if they do not practice good protocol.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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07-01-20 02:37 PM - Post#309848
In response to Condor
Condor:
The main drawback is the rather substantial number of cases from the NYC stats where we simply don't know the status of potential underlying conditions.
So the answer, at least for now, is that we just don't know.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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07-01-20 02:48 PM - Post#309850
In response to penn nation
It really wasn't that substantial and it is probable that the unknowns did have pre-existing risk factors. Now by this time, it is inexcusable that we don't have the numbers down cold, but that's what we are dealing with. One thing I can tell you from hearing from young people (under 35) in New York is that none of them know of anyone who suffered anything worse than flu-like symptoms and the vast majority either had very minor or no symptoms at all. While we need to protect those in vulnerable groups, there is virtually no fear of severe consequences in this group.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3615
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: If there is no Ivy basketball season next year 07-01-20 03:13 PM - Post#309855
In response to Old Bear
Interesting piece in today's WSJ from Provost and Pres. of Cornell.
The article from yesterday was very interesting! Basic premise is that kids are going back to school at Cornell if government allows it. They say 50% of students are saying they are coming back to Ithaca regardless, and that they have some modeling to show that this is a better alternative than just virtual class because it will involve rigorous testing and tracking on campus versus. If virtual class one, there will be no testing or training and will have kids hanging out anyway. Obviously Ithaca is different from Philly, but still interesting premise.
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Bryan
Junior
Posts: 231
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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07-01-20 04:57 PM - Post#309869
In response to Condor
Condor, thanks for the clarification. I agree each healthy individual 18-44 has a high chance of surviving covid-19 infection. I just couldn't get to the one in a million figure.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
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07-07-20 07:12 PM - Post#310106
In response to Bryan
How come no one wants to talk about the fact that we truly have no idea what this virus does to people down the line? Sure these young people might not die, but how does a lifetime of lung issues sound? What does that do to their livelihood?
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3044
Reg: 10-20-14
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07-07-20 08:33 PM - Post#310117
In response to Quakers03
I agree with Quakers03. Thanks for mentioning this.
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ivyrules
Freshman
Posts: 19
Age: 51
Reg: 11-27-17
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If there is no Ivy basketball season next year 07-09-20 01:07 PM - Post#310190
In response to Streamers
So what do you do now as a basketball player (or any winter sport player) in the Ivies?
Do you withdraw for the year and aim to return to the team the year after next?
Do you sit out athletically and complete your degree and then grad transfer to use that extra year of eligibility elsewhere?
Or do you move forward, knowing that, at best, you might if lucky, get 14 league games in starting in Jan?
Edited by ivyrules on 07-09-20 01:07 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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ivyrules
Freshman
Posts: 19
Age: 51
Reg: 11-27-17
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07-09-20 01:11 PM - Post#310191
In response to ivyrules
How would you advise your son or daughter at this point?
I don't think there is a right or wrong answer, but I think I would advise my kid to just go for it. Stick with your school and team, with hopes there is a partial season.
Because who knows what the future holds and you have to move forward...
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: If there is no Ivy basketball season next year 07-12-20 07:04 PM - Post#310267
In response to ivyrules
I believe that a fair number of the better players in the league who have hopes of playing at the next level, including Europe, may sit out a year of BB, attend school and then be a grad transfer student. Someone like Llewellyn crosses my mind.
IL rules are so antiquated and absurd that it may encourage this approach.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: If there is no Ivy basketball season next year 07-12-20 07:54 PM - Post#310268
In response to bradley
Indeed they are, but one thing that wouldn't change is that the Ivies are not going to offer grad school scholarships, nor guarantee admissions on a preference to some of the top grad schools in the nation. So who wants to stay and pay their way when other schools are offering a free ride, even assuming they can get into programs where only 5% or so of applicants are admitted?
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