james
Masters Student
Posts: 789
Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
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05-02-20 10:12 PM - Post#306935
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Sweden pursued herd immunity the hard way
They are the test case. So we shall see
There is no good option including bankrupting the country with massive unintended consequences including mental health
I will say it again there is no good option.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 789
Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
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05-02-20 10:22 PM - Post#306936
In response to james
Like hiv?
Well I don’t know smart guy there are a few differences in terms of incentive structures but I would agree we haven’t exactly cured or eliminated all viral effects.
Hiv didn’t shut down the global economy and as a ceo and in the health care field I am aware of some very encouraging developments some interesting innovation and massive capital going towards attacking the problem.
It doesn’t take a pie in the sky optimist to see how we might close the gap relatife to hiv treatment development decades later
It also doesn’t hurt that this impacts 7.8bn ppl through global lockdowns so the incentive and scope are perhaps both different. And the innovation and capital formation of these decades all help in addressing this over a reasonable time frame
But sure you have no interest in any of this. And it can look clever to be cynical
I have hope but no certainty. but I don’t get out of bed without hope which is why I take risk and respect those who play the proverbial game
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 789
Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
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05-02-20 10:29 PM - Post#306937
In response to james
I have data scientists who crunch ever number you can imagine and tweak every scenario
But we still don’t know the denominator and the ro while high could be so much lower than your herd immunity assumption
So case studies matter like Sweden Though it pains me to say given the expense of said analysis. Doesn’t matter when the inputs are flawed
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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05-02-20 10:48 PM - Post#306938
In response to james
It doesn't seem like flooding the zone has worked especially well.
The Netherlands tried that with disastrous consequences.
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mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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05-03-20 12:37 AM - Post#306939
In response to penn nation
I've been pessimistic about what's going to happen with this new coronavirus, but I'm optimistic about getting a vaccine.
There are two reasons it would be hard to generate a vaccine. The first is if the virus does a good job hiding from antibodies once you've been infected. This is why we haven't been able to develop a vaccine for HIV (and why you're never fully cured, although antivirals are now able to manage it). The second reason is if the virus mutates so rapidly that the vaccine we have one year doesn't work the next. This is why we need to get a new flu shot every year. From my understanding, though, this new coronavirus doesn't do either of these things. It actually exposes itself to antibodies so that it can spread faster in those first couple of days before you become symptomatic, and it mutates very, very slowly. I think we will get a vaccine, and I think there's a decent chance the immunity we get from it could last a lot longer than we've been willing to hope.
The bigger issue is there are reports that not everyone who's gotten Covid-19 has actually developed antibodies, or at least strong levels of them. It's hard to know if that's real or just a matter of testing error, but it could make it harder to get to herd immunity even if we are able to find a vaccine that's effective for most people.
I can't imagine a vaccine would be ready before the start of next basketball season. Heck, just manufacturing enough of it for everyone before the season after that would be a challenge. But we're eventually going to get there.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2272
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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05-03-20 07:16 AM - Post#306941
In response to james
But sure you have no interest in any of this. And it can look clever to be cynical
Wow. Hard to take the time to respond to this.
I'm leaving the basement quarantine to round in a hospital with 62 inpatient COVIDs.
My boss at NIH NIAID spent his life working on a vaccine for RSV. I only spent a little over a year.
I try to tincture my optimism with respect for the vagaries of mother nature and her viruses.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4910
Reg: 02-04-06
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05-03-20 03:19 PM - Post#306958
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
While we’re going off-topic here, treatment by polyclonal antibodies derived from recovered patients shows some potential. DARPA also has a more-speculative program to inject only the mRNA needed to generate these antibodies (not a vaccine, but a temporary defense). The timeline for both of these (to have them if they turn out to work) is the end of the year.
The existence of good treatments would completely change the risk-benefit calculus for the young and healthy who were unlikely to get sick in the first place. Their ability to gather would then only be constrained by the risk of their transmitting to the more-vulnerable. At that point, “fencing out†potentially dangerous carriers from the vulnerable will become much more sensible than “fencing in†everyone as a general measure. And, of course, if we get cheap, fairly accurate, spit-on-paper antigen tests then everything gets easier to manage.
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ivyrules
Freshman
Posts: 19
Age: 51
Reg: 11-27-17
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If there is no Ivy basketball season next year
05-04-20 01:20 PM - Post#306982
In response to SRP
I think Cornell and Columbia would benefit from a year off. I was maybe going to put Dartmouth in that category as well, but I think Go Green is right. That they are supposed to be better than usual, so it would actually hurt them.
I agree with Silver Maple that no season would hurt Yale.
What would it hurt or help Brown, Princeton, Penn, Harvard?
Would a blown up season pave the way for a new paradigm, in which the playing field is leveled across all 8 schools if not for the longterm, for a few years at least?
Edited by ivyrules on 05-04-20 01:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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ivyrules
Freshman
Posts: 19
Age: 51
Reg: 11-27-17
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05-11-20 12:26 PM - Post#307190
In response to ivyrules
The more I see, the less optimistic I feel about there being Ivy basketball. So many question marks.
Maybe the disease will allow some Ivies, but not others, to return to campus in the fall. What's happening on Ivy campuses this entire upcoming year will likely vary from campus to campus. That variation coupled with a likely second wave in fall or winter could be a killer.
Maybe there will be an attempt to have a season that has to be aborted, or maybe there will be a pre-determined shortened season with only league play, or maybe this is another lost season.
If there is some type of a partial season, will our best seniors elect to finish their Ivy education but sit out and maintain eligibility for a grad season elsewhere?
How many games can a senior or any player for that matter play before it officially counts as a year of eligibility used up?
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1145
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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05-11-20 12:48 PM - Post#307193
In response to ivyrules
Maybe the disease will allow some Ivies, but not others, to return to campus in the fall.
My own prediction is that if even one Ivy campus is closed, then there will not be Ivy sports.
Get well soon, New York and Boston!!!
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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05-11-20 01:27 PM - Post#307201
In response to Go Green
It's not just those two locations.
NJ has 140,000 confirmed cases, including 5,400 in Mercer County (Princeton) alone.
CT with over 33,000 confirmed cases, including 9,200 in New Haven County (Yale) alone.
RI with over 11,500 confirmed cases, including 3,100 in Providence County (Brown) alone.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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05-11-20 01:38 PM - Post#307203
In response to ivyrules
Normally the rule is 30% of your team’s total games. I am curious how this is applied to last year, where, even assuming a first round loss in a conference tournament and no NCAA bid, lots of teams lost at least one game. How this rule applies probably impacts a few kids close to the line. Bryce Aiken is apparently viewed as under the line, but there is an argument as to whether he would be eligible For another year (while he played less than 30% of Harvard’s games, he appeared in a game past the 30% mark). Bryce Washington is in a similar boat (though I believe he needed the first round playoff game to be under 30%). These are injuries though. I don’t think you can get an extra year by just leaving the team after playing a bunch of games.
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mbaprof
Senior
Posts: 345
Age: 66
Reg: 12-24-11
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Re: If there is no Ivy basketball season next year
05-11-20 08:36 PM - Post#307231
In response to ivyrules
What if there are no players? I was speaking with a D3 player at an excellent school who told me he is at least taking the Fall off as he sees classes being virtual and not worth the considerable money when he can do an internship or volunteer somewhere.
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ivyrules
Freshman
Posts: 19
Age: 51
Reg: 11-27-17
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05-13-20 03:44 PM - Post#307317
In response to mbaprof
Even if they cancelled the season with plenty of notice for players to drop out and save a year of Ivy eligibility, which I doubt will happen, I think there will be plenty of players for each Ivy to field a team.
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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05-14-20 01:14 PM - Post#307363
In response to ivyrules
https://twitter.com/IvyLeague/status/1260 978969974...
The league has officially announced its plans to return to Harvard as the site for the tournament next season (presuming there is a season)
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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05-14-20 02:49 PM - Post#307369
In response to welcometothejungle
Awesome!
I'm sure Seth, Bryce, Chris, Robert, Justin, Christian and Robert are super pumped!
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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05-14-20 02:52 PM - Post#307370
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
In a less snarky vein, I wonder how many lives Harvard saved by being the canary in the coal mine last year?
Not just Ivy League, but did our cancellation influence cancellations of other conference tournaments days later?
I would hold the tournament at Lavietes every year! Saves lives!
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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05-14-20 03:18 PM - Post#307372
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Undoubtedly the right decision. Few of us thought so until the NBA news came down---that was sort of like the second plane hitting the tower.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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If there is no Ivy basketball season next year
05-14-20 04:06 PM - Post#307376
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
The tweet that remains burned into my brain came one week after they made the call:
Imagine fading Harvard
It was the NBA that changed the country, but Harvard definitely saw it first.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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05-14-20 04:22 PM - Post#307377
In response to Quakers03
Hmmm. Harvard saw it first and cancelled the ILT while still planning to let their hockey team and other teams compete that weekend?
They got it right, but it was more eventually than right away.
It was a bold move to cancel but it would have much more impressive if they did it all in one shot. Leaves the impression there was more at play in the decision.
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