mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: 2021 Recruiting
06-18-20 10:54 AM - Post#309200
In response to palestra38
To be clear, Harvard is winning every recruiting battle with Yale as well.
And Yale came in to the 2010s with actual success under Jones (consistent Top 4 finishes, about half the 2000s in the Top 200, a shared title). Harvard's best year in the 2000s under Sullivan was 218th.
Yale won 103 Ivy games from 2010-2020. Harvard won 117. That's a substantial, immediate flip.
But again, you miss what I mean by "unicorn," because you don't know what you are talking about. What I mean by "unicorn" is that Amaker has made huge efforts to become part of the Harvard community in a way that is not required of a basketball coach. Most people believed that Amaker would turn Harvard around and immediately head back to a high major. I remember telling people over and over again - no, you don't get it... he loves Harvard. Not being its basketball coach, but being part of the Harvard community. People scoffed. Basketball coaches don't love schools. They're free agents open to the highest bidder. People were wrong.
The "unicorn" piece is that it's hard to imagine ever finding someone who is as strong a program builder and recruiter as Amaker, who also, arguably, loves being part of the Harvard community more than being the Harvard basketball coach. The fit is what made him a unicorn. If you continue to make the unicorn point exclusively about basketball, you completely miss the point. Amaker can sell Harvard in a way no one else can, because he truly loves being at Harvard. It's that simple.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: 2021 Recruiting
06-18-20 11:08 AM - Post#309201
In response to mrjames
If I were making $1 million a year, my wife gets a cushy job at Harvard Medical, I get a house and plenty of other benefits while essentially allowing the brand to sell itself, I would love it too. He's recruiting at a level far above Ivy level, something he did not do when in the Big East or Big 10.
It's the brand, not the man, no matter how much he loves Harvard.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: 2021 Recruiting
06-18-20 11:12 AM - Post#309202
In response to palestra38
Your confidence in your ignorance is bumming me out.
|
Naismith
Sophomore
Posts: 149
Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
|
Re: 2021 Recruiting
06-18-20 12:04 PM - Post#309204
In response to mrjames
The unicorn assessment is spot on if you follow the Boston scene. Amaker could be Harvard's Admissions Director if he stopped coaching. They love him there.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: 2021 Recruiting
06-18-20 12:05 PM - Post#309205
In response to Naismith
All 500 or so fans
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
06-18-20 01:11 PM - Post#309210
In response to mrjames
Well, Harvard hasn’t been in the top 100 in the last 5 years either. So I find that I am unsure why the last 4-5 years of performance seems to be the top of the scale for one school and the bottom for the other. After 4 years, the results are the results.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
06-18-20 01:39 PM - Post#309212
In response to SomeGuy
Here is why:
1. Harvard has been in the 80s in SOR the past two seasons. We've documented on here before why some teams overperform their KenPom ratings in their W-L record, and Harvard does that far more often than not. While I think KenPom generally is a better metric than Ws-Ls, every model comes with assumptions, and when behavior violates one model's assumptions, sometimes the inferior model can become a better measure for a team.
2. Harvard lost two years of two different Ivy POY-caliber players. While that "result is the result," Harvard has continued to recruit at that level, so you'd assume that if injury luck ever benefits Harvard, it will see the results it should have seen with four years of both players.
3. Harvard has incredible depth which reduces the stress on any one position to perform. That reduces variance, specifically related to downside risk, which is why I see Harvard's floor as a lot higher than Penn's. While I don't see Penn as that far behind Harvard if everything works out for it heading into next season, if things (namely the interior situation) don't work out, Penn is in big trouble. And that issue seems consistent over time, which is why I see where Harvard has been over the past five seasons as a relative bottom and where Penn has been as a relative ceiling.
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
06-18-20 02:29 PM - Post#309220
In response to mrjames
I think (2) may be more predictable than you think. I think Harvard is recruiting in a range where they are more likely to have players who want to play a year (or more) in grad school at a high major. Not saying that either Towns or Aiken did anything untoward, but I think there is an incentive right now for Ivy players to sit out with injuries. Getting to play 2-3 years as a big fish star while getting an Ivy degree, and then getting a free year or two of grad school while playing at a high major can be pretty appealing. And while Harvard isn’t the only Ivy getting kids who can play at high majors, it is getting more of those players than anyone else. My guess is that the phenomenon will continue to increase, and will hit Harvard harder than anyone else.
I think (3) is complex as well. I agree that Harvard gets more bites at the apple, but it also creates certain kinds of inefficiency. When Penn gets Brodeur, there isn’t any question that Penn is going to make sure the system fits the player. Harvard gets so many Brodeurs that there is less commitment to making it work for any one player. Maybe this is an extreme example, but would Chris Egi have been a star at Penn? I think it is entirely possible. Harvard had the luxury of being able to just go to the next high level recruit when he didn’t develop. I suspect Pen would have found a way to develop him.
The other thing the depth creates, which is a strength and a weakness, is the ability for Amaker to really play with matchups. I think Penn’s fades down the stretch against Harvard in 2019 had to do with Amaker’s ability to show very different looks. So in a way it is a strength, but again, it takes away from the team’s ability to really establish a consistent identity.
|
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
|
2021 Recruiting
06-24-20 11:34 PM - Post#309569
In response to SomeGuy
Amaker's recruiting lauded by a frightening source, "BallDurham" - Duke basketball publication.
https://balldurham.com/2020/06/24/duke-baske tball-...
"But wait, for Amaker seems to only be getting better as a recruiter. This week, he drew the attention of 247Sports top recruiting insider Evan Daniels for his early success with 2021 targets:
"If the Team Rankings were based just on 247Sports player rankings, Harvard would be at No. 2 in the Team Rankings with two top 100 players and a three-star."
All three announced their pledges within the past six weeks. The top two prizes Daniels noted are both four-stars. Notre Dame Prep (Ill.) shooting guard Louis Lesmond, who ranks No. 87 on the Top247, chose Harvard over the likes of Marquette, Wisconsin, and Xavier. And Amaker was able to help convince Deerfield Academy (Mass.) big man Bennett Pitcher, No. 88, to choose hoops over football (he's a three-star offensive tackle)."
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 06-24-20 11:35 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
Re: 2021 Recruiting
06-25-20 08:22 AM - Post#309571
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Note that, if Pitcher is a top 100 recruit, then I take back my statement about Penn getting a more highly rated big man. That is by far the highest I’ve seen him (for basketball).
|
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
|
06-25-20 09:04 AM - Post#309572
In response to SomeGuy
Yes, that surprised me as well.
Hope they’re right!
Also hope these guys can stay healthy
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: 2021 Recruiting
06-25-20 09:09 AM - Post#309573
In response to SomeGuy
That’s probably slightly higher than I would have expected, but the 100-150 range seemed very fair. He’s just never really been taken seriously as a basketball recruit, so I suspect as he’s rated, that’s where he’ll end up on average.
I still firmly believe that Pitcher should end up the highest rated of any Ivy finalist or commit at NERR (and, yes, I’m including Simmons... though we’ll see if he can live up to how he’s been projected and stay in the Top 10).
|
Naismith
Sophomore
Posts: 149
Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
|
Re: 2021 Recruiting
06-25-20 10:10 AM - Post#309575
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Thanks for the link. Didn't expect Amaker's bio to be followed by a rerun of his program that had appeared on CBS. That certainly does not hurt his recruiting skills and reputation.
|
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
|
06-25-20 02:19 PM - Post#309599
In response to Naismith
May Coach K retain his health and vigor for a long time!
|
mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
|
06-25-20 04:07 PM - Post#309613
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
And may Jeff Capel and Steve Wojciechowski have more success!
|
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
|
2021 Recruiting
06-27-20 04:53 PM - Post#309670
In response to mobrien
247 has now rated Harvard's 2021 recruits:
Louis Lesmond 3* .9105 #154
Bennett Pitcher 3* .9103 #155
Denham Wojcik 3* .8798 #215
National Team Recruiting Ranking #9
45.29 score for 2021 compares to 57.28 score for 2016 class that ranked #25 by 247 (ESPN #10).
Assuming a 4 recruit class, ranking could be comparable to 2016.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 06-27-20 05:00 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
84grad
Junior
Posts: 277
Age: 64
Reg: 11-09-17
|
07-02-20 10:57 PM - Post#309920
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I realize the offer to Harrison Ingram is a real longshot, but that sure would be an unbelievable addition to an already stellar group. He just tweeted that he received an offer from THE Harvard University. ESPN #15. Transformative. 40 year decision, Harrison. I can dream, can I?
|
84grad
Junior
Posts: 277
Age: 64
Reg: 11-09-17
|
2021 Recruiting
07-02-20 11:11 PM - Post#309921
In response to 84grad
Love the reference to the Ivy League in this article about Harrison Ingram and his brother.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/theundefeated.com/fea...
Edited by 84grad on 07-02-20 11:15 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: 2021 Recruiting
07-03-20 08:12 AM - Post#309923
In response to 84grad
Kinda ironic that Amaker’s former assistant just brought a five-star to Howard last night, shocking the college basketball world.
|
rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3050
Reg: 10-20-14
|
07-03-20 09:52 AM - Post#309931
In response to mrjames
ESPN looked into this possibility last week.
"Why HBCUs could again become serious options for elite basketball prospects"
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/story...
- But due to the disparity in competition, resources and exposure, HBCU coaches are aware they're engaging in uphill battles to land some of these players out of high school. Like most mid- and low-major schools in general, eyebrows are raised when a top-50 prospect includes a non-power conference team on his list.
When asked to respond to those who might express skepticism over a five-star prospect committing to an HBCU, Blakeney responded, "I'd say they're 100 percent accurate."
"I'm very cautious with pursuing this," he continued, recalling a recent conversation he had with a ranked prospect. "I said, 'Hey, look, I'm going to be honest with you. We don't have locker rooms like a blue blood university, we don't have practice courts, our offices aren't what you would see at a blue blood. That said, do you still have interest?' I wanted to be more negative than positive with that conversation, so I don't waste my time pursuing these kids and only do it so they get their numbers up with social media and get in the conversation on a hot-button issue. I want someone that wants to be at Howard and understands what Howard is."
There's also the question: What happens if and when a five-star player does pick an HBCU? What if it doesn't work immediately?
"Wherever a five-star lands, we can't mess it up," Blakeney said. "If we mess it up, we may not have another opportunity to be able to do it."
It's too early to definitively say one of the five-star or high-major prospects talking to HBCUs this month will ultimately decide to commit to one. Williams, whose mother went to Hampton, is No. 3 in the ESPN recruiting rankings for 2023 and might not ever play college basketball. Huntley-Hatfield, the cousin of former Kentucky forward Alex Poythress, is looking at the Wildcats, Tennessee, Memphis and others. Ellis had the likes of Oregon, Louisville, UConn and Texas Tech alongside NC Central on his final eight.
That said, HBCU coaches as a whole sense a potential opening right now, and they're only going to be more aggressive in pursuing five-star prospects.
And if it does happen? It's a game-changer. -
- The social justice movements around the country and the growing mutual interest on both sides of these recruitments would seem to make a marriage between top recruits and HBCUs more likely than at any point in the past couple of decades. A ripple effect could follow.
"This trailblazing path that's trying to get re-sparked, it's already been blazed before," Collins said. "It's just time for somebody to blaze it again." -
|
