SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-04-20 12:50 PM - Post#308503
In response to mrjames
What is the evidence that FA isn’t a big deal with matching? Can you name even one kid who took an offer from a matching school? It may just be that Tommy is a great recruiter, but how can you possibly know for certain that kids are choosing Harvard because they are being recruited by a master rather than because they got a full offer with FA from Harvard first? One of the most common things you will hear kids say when they commit is that a certain staff was the first on me, they were the first to offer, they were most aggressive, etc. If one school can move first in a tangible way, that is a huge advantage.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-04-20 01:13 PM - Post#308504
In response to Stuart Suss
As long as you express it as your opinion rather than objective fact that Yale and Princeton have outrecruited Penn, fine. But I disagree. Indeed, had the refs not totally screwed over Penn at Yale in 2018, Penn would have had an undisputed solo first place finish. In virtually every year over the past 3, Penn has outplayed Yale head to head. And Penn plays a much tougher out of conference schedule.
As I pointed out earlier, I think personal feelings get in it for you vs Steve. He took over a moribund program and has consistently performed as well as any team outside of Harvard, which as we all agree, has such advantages in recruiting that it will not change any time soon no matter what Steve does. Do I like the fact that Princeton is 4-0 against us the last 2 years? Of course not. But you cannot isolate those games as being of any greater significance than any other Ivy loss. Penn has made the tournament each of those years and outperformed Princeton as a whole for each of those seasons. So the question to you is do you fire the coach simply because he cannot out-recruit Harvard and lost 4 straight times to Princeton? Or is it personal?
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-04-20 01:34 PM - Post#308506
In response to Stuart Suss
I don’t necessarily agree that we are getting outrecruited. Each of the last two years, Penn has gotten the most win shares from their freshmen of any Ivy team. Harvard has been second both years.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-04-20 01:58 PM - Post#308511
In response to SomeGuy
Of course, freshman PT is not apples to apples depending on your upperclassmen.
But I agree with you--Penn is not being out-recruited except by Harvard, and there is nothing we can do about it unless we out-pay Harvard for a REALLY big time coach.
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-04-20 02:11 PM - Post#308515
In response to SomeGuy
It may just be that Tommy is a great recruiter, but how can you possibly know for certain that kids are choosing Harvard because they are being recruited by a master rather than because they got a full offer with FA from Harvard first?
As Mike J has already said, Amaker brought in talent at Seton Hall and Michigan that was above their previous level. I think it's fair to give Amaker credit as a top flight recruiter and to attribute much of Harvard's success to that. It certainly helps when the FA cards line up at the same time, but I think the evidence is pretty overwhelming that TA is a premiere recruiter.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-04-20 02:30 PM - Post#308517
In response to palestra38
Penn is definitely getting outrecruited by Yale. Does everyone forget Isaiah Kelly and Matthue Cotton?
Princeton's on a different wavelength with recruiting. It beat out Harvard for Jaelin, and I'm sure there were other wins I'm forgetting, but it goes after a lot of kids relatively solo from other Ivies. Hard to slot them into the pecking order, but right now, it's Harvard - Yale - Penn.
As for FA not being a big deal... the area where it's a big deal is when Ivies that can't offer as much FA go it alone for a player and the most aggressive FA schools don't join in. Then, the former school can't give the best package up against external full rides. When the Ivies are competing, it seems generally well known that FA won't be an issue (I've heard stories about gamesmanship with FA reads, for sure, but generally not as big a deal).
|
Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
|
06-04-20 02:40 PM - Post#308518
In response to mrjames
Mike James,
Is Yale's recruiting success, as you see it, compared to Penn a product of structural and institutional factors (brand name, financial aid)?
Perhaps because of some of the recruiting losses you have mentioned, I am sensing that Penn is heading in the Princeton direction and looking "solo from other Ivies" in order to avoid head to head recruiting battles. Are you noticing that trend?
I disagree with you regarding the impact of financial aid as it impacts head to head recruiting within the league. I believe that "SomeGuy" has accurately depicted the financial aid situation. A detailed response will be saved for another discussion.
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-04-20 02:40 PM - Post#308519
In response to PennFan10
And I agree that Amaker is a great recruiter. My questions are about whether FA matters. I think it does. You do too, seemingly, based on your response.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
06-04-20 03:17 PM - Post#308522
In response to Stuart Suss
Yale's superior recruiting is frankly based on being competitive in three tourney games and being seen as a top contender in the league along with Harvard. Name brand is probably helpful both in terms of Yale's own brand as well as its association with Harvard from a rivalry sense.
No one here seems to want to talk about Penn's advantage in recruiting multiple players at the floor, which has allowed it in recent years to take multiple players at a level where HYP essentially get to choose one, max.
Since when did Penn start portraying itself as an unfortunate minnow that has the deck stacked against it trying to make excuses for why other Ivies have it easier? Penn has tremendous institutional advantages. It could easily be pulling in Top 100 kids consistently. It isn't. And it was predictable (at least for me, and seemingly some others around these parts) that it wouldn't happen at the time.
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
06-04-20 04:20 PM - Post#308525
In response to mrjames
Genius. You should take your predictive powers to Vegas or Wall Street.
|
Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-04-20 05:55 PM - Post#308537
In response to PennFan10
It may just be that Tommy is a great recruiter, but how can you possibly know for certain that kids are choosing Harvard because they are being recruited by a master rather than because they got a full offer with FA from Harvard first?
As Mike J has already said, Amaker brought in talent at Seton Hall and Michigan that was above their previous level. I think it's fair to give Amaker credit as a top flight recruiter and to attribute much of Harvard's success to that. It certainly helps when the FA cards line up at the same time, but I think the evidence is pretty overwhelming that TA is a premiere recruiter.
Yep, this was exactly my point earlier in thread. Amaker is a great recruiter. Full stop. He has shown a history of it before Harvard. Full stop. Saying it is just Harvard's recruiting advantages is a cop out in my opinion. If Amaker was at Penn, I have zero doubt he would be bringing in highly ranked players. Other stuff would very well be worse, but recruiting better. This doesn't mean I want to give up on Coach Donahue or that I want to trade places, but I do think we can be honest with ourselves.
Steve Donahue is a great coach, I'm a big fan, and I hope he can find a way to win more games in league and stay here forever. I think he is very good at finding under recruited players that are excellent. I think based on that skill that he landed the best 2019 class (my opinion).
BUT, he isn't very good at landing highly competed for top prospects. He didn't do that at Cornell. He didn't do that at Boston College. He hasn't done that at Penn (basically 2 kids in 5ish years, AJ and MLL). I hope he can find a groove and start doing more of this consistently like Harvard and Yale have. I don't expect he has to win every battle, but we need to win more than we are. I think our recruiting needs to be more consistent class to class in general to get where we all want it to go. 2021 class would be a great time to prove we can take it to next level and start showing that consistency.
|
Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
|
06-04-20 06:04 PM - Post#308538
In response to mrjames
Since when did Penn start portraying itself as an unfortunate minnow that has the deck stacked against it trying to make excuses for why other Ivies have it easier? Penn has tremendous institutional advantages. It could easily be pulling in Top 100 kids consistently.
This was basically my point earlier in thread. Penn has a lot of advantages and things to offer still in recruiting, so I think it is a cop out to just say HYP got us beat because they have more $$ and brand cache and call it a day and that we can't go head to head.
|
Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
|
06-04-20 06:12 PM - Post#308539
In response to Mike Porter
I've seen it referenced before, but aren't assistants also fairly important in recruiting? There seems to be a mainstay of Steve's throughout the years in question.
|
Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
|
06-04-20 06:39 PM - Post#308540
In response to mrjames
Since when did Penn start portraying itself as an unfortunate minnow that has the deck stacked against it trying to make excuses for why other Ivies have it easier? Penn has tremendous institutional advantages. It could easily be pulling in Top 100 kids consistently. It isn't. And it was predictable (at least for me, and seemingly some others around these parts) that it wouldn't happen at the time.
Interesting points in the last paragraph here. You seem to be saying that Donahue just has a lower ceiling as a recruiter. You may be right. I'm not ready to say one way or another, as I think there are a lot of factors in recruiting. He clearly hasn't been a dominant league leader.
I've raised the topic of FA, but people like you and Asia have told me that it isn't really a big deal - and I trust you both as knowledgeable and thoughtful. It isn't an issue in Ivy recruiting battles. But is it possibly an issue in non-ivy recruiting? For example did players like Towns, Aiken, Ledlum, Edosomwan, Lewis, and Kirkwood look closely at other Ivies? If not, would they have even looked at Harvard if not for the full financial aid? If so, wouldn't that be an advantage vs. applying from Penn - where you'd have to wait to find out your financial aid package rather than knowing right up front whether you qualify for a certain tier of aid? This isn't whining or complaining about disadvantages - I'm just trying to understand.
|
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
|
06-05-20 12:05 AM - Post#308543
In response to Penndemonium
I believe most of those listed would have received full scholarships outside of the Ivy League. That list may also not have seriously looked at other Ivies. Would suggest FA isn’t an issue with top recruits.
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
06-05-20 01:33 AM - Post#308544
In response to Penndemonium
Nobody has really answered why the first mover advantage isn’t a big deal. The basic argument that FA doesn’t matter within the conference seems to be “trust me, it isn’t an issue.†My question is why — it seems to me that on its face it would be an issue when kids and families care about who is most focused on them, etc. As my kids’ friends have reached the age of recruiting, at least in the small sample size I hear about, families feel a lot more comfortable with an offer and aid in hand than they do when they are told “I can get you in and get you money, just give me a month.â€
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
06-05-20 01:47 AM - Post#308545
In response to mrjames
To be clear, I am not intending to knock Amaker or Harvard. Just considering where the baseline is for evaluation. No question in my mind that Amaker moves the needle in a very positive direction. I just think Jones might move it more.
I’m also not making excuses for Donahue or saying that Penn is disadvantaged in a fundamental way that needs to change. As you say, we should be careful what we wish for. But I do think that Penn has disadvantages compared to HYP in the FA space. Can they be overcome? Absolutely.
As for Donahue’s recruiting ceiling, yes, you said it when he was hired. You also said he couldn’t (or wouldn’t) coach defense. That turned out to not be true — he has ended up being more focused on defense, and arguably a better defensive coach than offensive coach at Penn. And that is the problem I have with all of the “we know what we are getting: mere competence†statements. Coaches change. What held back Donahue at BC doesn’t need to hold him back now. He can learn and adapt. Just like what held Amaker back at Michigan doesn’t need to hold him back now. The narrative that he isn’t a great game coach, his teams crumple under pressure, etc. — a lot of that comes from a pre-existing narrative that simply isn’t the case anymore.
|
Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
|
Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 02:34 AM - Post#308546
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I believe most of those listed would have received full scholarships outside of the Ivy League. That list may also not have seriously looked at other Ivies. Would suggest FA isn’t an issue with top recruits.
I think that's missing the point. I accept on faith that FA isn't as much of an issue when the Ivies are battling for a recruit.
Here is a complete hypothetical situation. If you are Chris Lewis... (and keep in mind I know zero about him other than that he was a good player)...
If he is deciding between Harvard and say... Ohio State. Ohio State is offering a scholarship and an amazing basketball program. Harvard is offering 100% financial aid if your income is below $XXX,XXX and a great education. There is no ambiguity about whether you qualify for the aid as long as your income is in the range. The threshold is published and well understood for 100% aid. You might decide that a scholarship vs. 100% financial aid is not a meaningful spread and choose Harvard.
Now let's say he's applying to Penn and Ohio State. Penn would be able to offer the same player admission to a great university (maybe not quite as storied as Harvard) and a great basketball program (more storied than Harvard). Penn would only be able to offer the POSSIBILITY of good financial aid. It would be opaque until you've applied and waited. The coach can't really vouch for the amount of aid, because they don't control it and the formulas aren't clear. You have to fill out invasive paperwork before you can even find out. The aid probably wouldn't be as comprehensive UNLESS you also simultaneously applied to HYPr. Choosing between Ohio State and Penn could realistically turn out very differently purely due to the FA situation, right? Is it possible that Penn doesn't even know which players are losing because they don't bother applying due to the FA situation and the lack of visibility/transparency?
100% FA and knowing the qualifications is pretty compelling. The possibility of getting 80% if you apply to a black box for it is not so good. In a lot of cases, that student chooses Ohio State and doesn't apply to Penn. Transparency matters a lot.
Thoughts?
Edited by Penndemonium on 06-05-20 02:39 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 10:00 AM - Post#308547
In response to Penndemonium
And if you think Amaker and Jones don't play up the fact that they surely can give a recruit a free ride and that they are taking a chance if the recruit chooses Penn, well, that's laughable.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 10:22 AM - Post#308548
In response to Penndemonium
Correct - the area that I've been very critical of is when an Ivy goes alone for (or goes further down the path with) a recruit than one of the Ivies that tends to have more generous FA packages. In those cases, unless an HYP hangs in, a program that doesn't offer as lucrative an FA package can't have the HYP FA offer to match against to get as close to the full scholarship from outside the league as is possible.
I believe there should be a MFN table of offers so that Ivies can put their best foot forward for a recruit if they're going it alone.
That being said, if you compare aid programs these days, they're pretty similar as to where they draw the lines for full aid, mostly covered (tuition or a percent of total cost of attendance), etc. The areas where there are gaps are small and the gaps themselves are small.
Also, I refute the notion that every player going to the Ivies is getting 100% aid. Some are getting very little to none. There are also plenty in the "not fully covered, but small family contribution" zone.
It's just important to scope FA issues correctly, and not make it seem like schools are significantly apart.
|
