Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 12:27 PM - Post#308551
In response to mrjames
Is anyone able to indicate the difference between a Harvard FA package and a Penn FA package if HYP isn't involved?
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 01:21 PM - Post#308553
In response to mrjames
So you agree with the scenario laid out but conclude it's not a big deal? I just don't get it. Isn't Some Guy's scenario very plausible? Does it not immediately put a school like Penn behind the 8 ball? You're saying this only affects a very few? Or is it you think it's offset by the AI situation so we shouldn't complain.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 02:44 PM - Post#308557
In response to Quakers03
As a league guy, I want the league to win every battle that it can, and I do think there is merit to saying that certain schools can't put out the best possible Ivy package when pursuing kids outside the league that the best Ivy FA schools aren't pursuing. I don't like that and wish that we had an MFN aid policy. That being said, I don't think that the differences in aid between schools are that big anymore and are of differential sizes (often zero) in different areas of the income/asset bracket.
For battles within the league, I think the impact is being dramatically overstated here.
And, yes, Penn has a rather large (but shrinking due to the continued increase of the AI floor) advantage in AI that helps it in battles with HYP.
Put another way, if Penn hired a Tommy-like recruiter tomorrow, that coach would be able to put together Top 25 classes just the same as Harvard. So if you ask me to allocate 100 points between "Penn needs better FA" or "Penn needs a better recruiter," I'd probably go somewhere in the range of 0-5 and 95-100 as my allocation.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1173
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 03:20 PM - Post#308562
In response to mrjames
Explain to us non-international trade experts what you mean by an MFN financial aid policy.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8338
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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06-05-20 03:23 PM - Post#308563
In response to mrjames
Another factor in all this is that the big state schools all have honors programs with preferred registration, small classes, etc. Can’t match Ivy branding but do match the undergrad education for liberal arts and sciences. Wharton and engineering are another matter.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 04:19 PM - Post#308577
In response to mrjames
How is the lower AI floor a help to Penn if they can’t offer the same aid package that HYP can (the one that would be more competitive against scholarships)? The AI floor by definition only helps Penn in regard to recruits that the higher FA schools can’t make an offer to.
As for the “just hire a Tommy level recruiter,†do you really think that if Amaker was coaching both schools simultaneously, they would get the same level recruiting classes right now? If we started 15 years ago with Penn as the class of the league, maybe. But right now I think on court results actually need to change first. And by more than they already have. I challenge you with my arguments about Penn winning the league more recently, Harvard going a whole recruiting cycle without winning the league, Penn’s freshman classes getting more win shares, etc., but these are arguments around the edges. Harvard has been the class of the league since Tommy’s arrival.
Steve has done the initial things that needed to happen — getting competitive enough to make the tournament and win the league when things break right. He has to kick it up a notch to turn the recruiting tide against Harvard and Yale. I personally don’t think he HAS to be the top recruiter in the league to win, but he has to be close enough. All a round about way of saying that, while I disagree with your take (and Stu’s and Jeff’s) about the last 4 years under Steve, what happens in the next year or two will be determinative for Steve IMO. He may just have been the benificiary of one super recruit (AJ).
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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06-05-20 05:18 PM - Post#308580
In response to SomeGuy
MFN= most favored nations
basically means, if I am reading this right, that any ivy has the right to match or put forward their best deal out there for FA for a recruit, not just when another Ivy is on them.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 05:58 PM - Post#308581
In response to SomeGuy
If Harvard had been able to keep Frank Ben-Eze in Tommy’s first class, that first class with Keith Wright, Max Kenyi, Oliver McNally was rated Top 25 by ESPN.com. He then grabbed Kyle Casey, Brandyn Curry and Christian Webster from higher-level league interest the next year and by year four pulled in his first high-major kids (Wes Saunders, Kenyatta Smith, Steve Moundou-Missi). I’ve very confident he could flip Penn’s recruiting immediately.
The AI helps because while each of HYP can get generally one recruit at the floor a class (and not always), Penn can recruit multiple there. So what ends up happening is HYP have to decide is this the one recruit we want to make a case for an add to our class (and frequently have to back off good players because they’re not promising enough to spend the spot on). Penn doesn’t have to make those value judgments as much, which is an advantage. Now, that advantage is decreasing because the floor is now in the 180s, but when it was in the 170s as recently as a few years ago (IIRC), it was certainly an advantage.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 06:16 PM - Post#308582
In response to palestra38
And if you think Amaker and Jones don't play up the fact that they surely can give a recruit a free ride and that they are taking a chance if the recruit chooses Penn, well, that's laughable.
This ^
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 07:10 PM - Post#308586
In response to mrjames
My question, though, is whether Amaker could flip it competing against himself. If two teams were recruiting at Amaker’s level that first year, what does that 2nd team get? Are there enough AI eligible higher level guys floating around that it just doubles the league’s haul? Or do they split those 4 guys and dilute the Harvard class? And remember that there was a void at that time that Amaker filled. Both Penn and Princeton suffered some self-inflicted wounds. There isn’t a void now. Anyone who comes in needs to deal with the possibility that the league is doing a pretty good job of getting the kids it can. Meaning that, in order to move the needle in the way you suggest, you need to find a way to take kids from Harvard.
As far as who can fish at the floor, the Ben-Eze situation has always confused me. That was clearly an instance where Harvard was fishing in an area that Penn felt it could not. Things may have changed since then, but it suggests that Penn was unwilling to use its AI advantage at that time. Obviously any choices Penn makes in that regard are just their choices, but it may not be an advantage that is playing out.
Luckily, the recruiting rankings don’t determine who wins. Penn has gotten better faster than I expected under Donahue, which leads me to believe that we can win regardless of who is getting the highest rated recruiting classes.
Edited by SomeGuy on 06-05-20 07:14 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1904
Reg: 11-29-04
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Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 07:32 PM - Post#308589
In response to mrjames
Thanks, mrjames. This is helpful to understand. I would argue that transparency on income vs. FA reward is also a big deal. If I have to apply for an uncertain outcome, I might not bother if I have a known scholarship from an already great school (say... UNC for example). Even if they are given 80% assurance, it's still a problem. A top ivy recruit has to balance getting into the school they want to attend with not holding out too long to take a good offer in hand - before the scholarship offer disappears. They also have to be careful about alienating a coach to see whether their Ivy FA package is good enough.
Again, correct me if I'm wrong on this - just putting myself in a recruit's mind, but with no actual direct knowledge.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dev Goodman piece
06-05-20 07:40 PM - Post#308592
In response to Penndemonium
What I always find interesting is that Mike concedes that Amaker, who makes 3 times what any other Ivy coach dreams of making, has a clear recruiting advantage in terms of financial aid certainty in addition to the AAU connections in exchange for which he got 3 times as much pay. Yet, he simply decides, purely subjectively, that it is only 5% of any advantage. OK. Whatever. He's getting paid that much for a reason.
Yet Harvard has won no more titles since Amaker's run years ago than any other of the 4 contenders.
Again, I think that Penn is going to surprise a lot of people this year. They have better athleticism than a Penn team has had since the Ugonna teams. Find themselves a shooter and this team will run some others off the court. That is what I care about---we are not getting rid of Donahue, nor should we. He won't out-recruit Amaker, but that's ok.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1122
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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06-05-20 08:50 PM - Post#308595
In response to palestra38
Two comments: First Steve's recruiting challenges are most recruiting against non-ivies.
Second, if Kosmalski can develop a number 1 program at Swarthmore, it can be done at Penn.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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06-05-20 09:53 PM - Post#308597
In response to UPIA1968
You seriously think that Division 3 is comparable to any Division 1 program?
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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06-06-20 02:49 PM - Post#308605
In response to palestra38
Plenty of examples of D3 coaches taking their show to D1 and succeeding. The money and facilities are different and therefore the quality of the athlete is also different. But fundamentally, the recruiting, X and O's and program building is very similar.
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1156
Reg: 07-28-07
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06-06-20 03:02 PM - Post#308606
In response to palestra38
Look at Penn’s own Mike McLaughlin who went from Holy Family to Penn - I would certainly say that he has run a successful program.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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06-06-20 03:37 PM - Post#308608
In response to SteveChop
You guys are completely missing the point. Of course a lot of coaches, especially at the mid-major level, step up from D-3. But we're talking about RECRUITING AT THE LEVEL OF AMAKER. The number of D-3 coaches with AAU connections is tiny---they don't give scholarships (technically, neither do the Ivies, which is why the FA discussion is so much more important than 5% as my good friend Mike James suggests). To come in and compete with Amaker from D-3 is well-nigh impossible.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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06-06-20 04:55 PM - Post#308609
In response to palestra38
Probably the most known of your "impossible" would be Bo Ryan who came from D3 Platteville and took Wisconsin to the National Championship, beating Amaker a few times along the way both on the floor and in recruiting. Before him Dick Bennett was successful at Wisconsin including a final 4, he came from D3 Wisconsin Stevens point.
Jay Wright was an assistant at Univ of Rochester, D3. Shaka Smart was a D3 guy.
I get your point, but there are more examples than you think from D3.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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06-06-20 06:11 PM - Post#308610
In response to PennFan10
All of them had intermediate steps at mid-majors (as I said) where, shall we say, the admissions department did not stand in their way. However, I take your point. I just don't think it is likely that a really ambitious Div 3 coach of the caliber of the 3 you mention would want a first stop at the Ivy level. When we first needed a coach after Miller imploded, Gary Williams was available. That's the only kind of coach I think we could get who would compete with Amaker for recruits.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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Dev Goodman piece
06-06-20 06:43 PM - Post#308611
In response to palestra38
Bo Ryan spent 2 years at Wisconsing Milwaukee with a .500 record before getting the Wisconsin job. Glen Miller, by the way, was a D3 head coach before Penn. Sorry to bring that up.
I agree it's unlikely, just not unprecedented.
Edited by PennFan10 on 06-06-20 06:44 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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