bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
|
02-17-06 02:50 PM - Post#15711
We have something to lose in this game. UNI is imo the 3rd best team we play this year. Unlike our other BIG games though, we have something at stake. Possibly an at large bid, and definitely our #24 ranking, but more importantly in my mind is our credibility as a premier MM program.
We lost to 2 teams clearly better than us, but many "pundits" are making us the favorites in this game, as are a lot of fans based on the internet polls we have seen. ESPN has built us up as a MM power. This is a game where we have to step up.
Clearly, the MVC is a big step up from the PL, and this team is arguably the best of the MVC. I do not think that anybody truly knowledgable could make us a favorite, but the perception of many is we should win. If we lose newspapers will say it is an upset just because of that 24. I think a win or close loss solidifies our rep, but a bad loss fuels speculation that we are maybe an overrated media concoction of ESPN--an opinion some of our detractors have already expressed.
Any thoughts?
|
Anonymous
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-17-06 03:01 PM - Post#15712
In response to bison63
1. I agree that the Bison are definitely underdogs. Pomeroy shows us as 7.3 point underdogs (including the home court factor), while Sagarin's formula produces a 5.3 point margin. Somewhere in this range seems about right, although travel fatigue and their dome might produce a bigger home/road split than the normal four point margin.
2. I also agree that the perception of some of the uninformed media might make a loss seem worse than it really is. A close loss theoretically should reinforce our credentials as a strong team, but it might not in some ignorant quarters.
|
bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-17-06 03:10 PM - Post#15713
In response to
And apparently there are a lot of ignorant quarters. (athough we've reaped the benefit of that, so I guess we can't complain).
|
Anonymous
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-17-06 03:27 PM - Post#15714
In response to bison63
No question the Bison will be underdogs, and I don't see where most are saying they will win. It's a road game against a top-team (with a significantly higher RPI) from the top mid-major conference.
Speaking of dogs, bodog does have the game listed, but no line yet.
|
Panthers Win!!
newbie
Posts: 47
Reg: 01-30-06
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-17-06 04:53 PM - Post#15715
In response to bison63
I really see it as a tossup. Both teams have played well. UNI plays in a stronger conference and Bucknell in a weaker (top to bottom) conference. UNI has losses to some good teams in conference and some good wins outside. Bucknell has, other then when it played a couple of the best teams in the country by any standard, run the table. Because Bucknell hasn't been challenged for quite awhile I think it's hard to say just how well they are playing at this point. I think either team could win this but it'll be a close game either way.
For me it comes down to individual matchups, coaching/preparation, depth (particularly injuries to UNI's guards Crawford and Little), and execution. I think those factors are difficult to predict. If either team has an advantage I'd say it has to be UNI for playing at home. If the game were at Bucknell I'd give the nod to the Bison.
I think this game is different because it will be seen as a statement game. Is Bucknell really a good team or is it that the Patriot League is just very weak? Is UNI a good team and the MVC a strong conference this year or is the high MVC conference RPI a statistical anomaly?
Regardless of the outcome you guys have been great hosts in our discussions in the weeks leading up to the game. I know I'll enjoy following Bucknell after the game Saturday. Best of luck and let's hope for a good, close, hard fought game with no injuries or officiating getting in the way.
|
Anonymous
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-17-06 04:57 PM - Post#15716
In response to Panthers Win!!
I hardly say Bucknell hasn't been challenged in quite awhile. They've been down double-digits in the 2nd half in several recent games.
|
bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-17-06 07:08 PM - Post#15717
In response to
Quote:
I hardly say Bucknell hasn't been challenged in quite awhile. They've been down double-digits in the 2nd half in several recent games.
To teams we had no business being down double digits to (Except HC). PW makes an interesting point that we have not been tested for awhile, although we have passed every test thrown at us, which is all we can do. Also, I guess I consider Holy Cross a test, but this is a bigger one. We do not HAVE to win, but we do have to play well and compete. And we have to do it from the start--the deer in the headlights thing we pulled vs 'nova and Duke won't cut it.
|
Panthers Win!!
newbie
Posts: 47
Reg: 01-30-06
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-17-06 09:14 PM - Post#15718
In response to
Bucknell has had a propensity for starting slowly. I wouldn't say being down to an opponent means the Bison have been "tested" by that opponent. Looking at the stats of the HC game I see the Bison were down by five with seven minutes left in the game yet turned it on and ended up winning by five. You guys know better then me but maybe the Bison were “playing down” to competition. HC is only 15-11 with a RPI of 132. While it was a close game I just don't see it as a test against a good opponent. It looks to me that when they had to the guys flipped a switch and did what they needed t to do. Lehigh looks to be the next best team in the PL and once again lead early but shortly after the second half started Bucknell took the lead which it never relinquished.
When I said test I meant really pushed against good competition later during the conference games. Bucknell is, at least to most PL outsiders, the extreme cream of the crop in the PL. Assuming they are a better team later in the season then when they played Duke and Villanova it’s hard to judge where they are at this point in the season.
By the way, what happened in the Santa Clara game? I know that's a game you guys would prefer to forget and it's been a long time since it was played but the outcome of that game is inexplicable. Maybe that’s the one game every year most teams just don’t show up for for whatever reason.
|
bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-17-06 09:46 PM - Post#15719
In response to Panthers Win!!
Down by 5 with 7 to go is the least of it. We were down by 8 at halftime and before we could blink an eye in the second half it was 15. That is before a full house on the road against a good team that is very well coached(don't let their record fool you). They have been plagued by injuries this year but they were primed to beat us, and are still the team we think we'll have to beat for the automatic bid (though Lehigh will disagree).
|
Anonymous
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-17-06 11:33 PM - Post#15720
In response to Panthers Win!!
Quote:
HC is only 15-11 with a RPI of 132. While it was a close game I just don't see it as a test against a good opponent. It looks to me that when they had to the guys flipped a switch and did what they needed t to do.
By the way, what happened in the Santa Clara game? I know that's a game you guys would prefer to forget and it's been a long time since it was played but the outcome of that game is inexplicable. Maybe that’s the one game every year most teams just don’t show up for for whatever reason.
As Bison63 mentioned, Holy Cross is actually a very good team when at full strength. They returned two 1st team all-league players this year, but they were both hurt/sick for most of the first two months. Both are back now at fairly full strength. HC also graduated its two big men and were a little weak up front at the start. Now, however, a freshman and sophomore have both stepped up their games and made them a lot tougher than they were early on. Had the HC team been at full-strength in the pre-league schedule, they would have three or four more wins and an RPI no worse than 100. HC has the same three key players as last year when they won the regular season crown and beat Notre Dame in the NIT.
As for Santa Clara, it appears that it was a combination of bad play by the Bison, very hot shooting by Santa Clara, some road weariness, and some home-court refereeing by the WCC crew. Santa Clara in that game had the best FG pct yielded by the Bison this year - - - better than Duke, better than Villanova, better than Syracuse. Shortly after that game, Santa Clara gave Gonzaga a real good game for 30 minutes before falling short. Since then, they have played poorly.
|
Hoop Time
Sophomore
Posts: 131
Reg: 01-23-06
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-18-06 12:19 AM - Post#15721
In response to
Bottom line, if the Bison get blown out, an at-large bid will be out of the question and their seeding will suffer if they win the league.
The selection comm/ would look at them as a team that lost by a wide margin every time they played someone good. Syracuse and DePaul have lost their luster to a great extent.
Play close, lose by single digits and they drop out of the Top 25 but remain a possible at large team and still are in shape for a decent seed.
Win and it is a tremendous boost all around.
|
bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
|
Re: Why this game is different
02-18-06 01:23 AM - Post#15722
In response to Hoop Time
That about sums it up.
|
