HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2692
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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11-10-20 11:02 PM - Post#316504
In response to palestra38
I’m not sure what was offensive. We reacted in March and it turns out Harvard was right. My point was that I see a similar dangerous optimism now. Nevada and Wisconsin just announced stay at home orders. I expect Illinois and others will follow. Northeast is probably weeks to a month or so behind. Over 130,000 new cases today and, again, record hospitalizations.
The good news is that the mortality rates are down, although death totals will be rising. Vaccines may save 2021-22, not this year.
So, what’s condescending? I’m tired of idiots selling the dream that it’s under control or almost over.
So, how do NCAA sports work during stay at home orders?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32833
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-10-20 11:09 PM - Post#316505
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
You're just talking to yourself, which is a characteristic of yours.
A Bubble that gives our athletes a chance to compete safely when everyone else is playing (not so safely) is win-win.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2692
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Ivy Season
11-10-20 11:54 PM - Post#316506
In response to palestra38
I hear your proposal, and it is a reasonable option, except for the following:
1. I believe we’re headed to lockdowns;
2. The restrictions will likely impact the participating schools;
3. They will also likely restrict or more likely eliminate college athletics, just as they did in March; and
4. In view of the foregoing, the leaders of our esteemed institutions won’t give a “****†about basketball.
Otherwise, a bubble is a nice idea.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 11-10-20 11:55 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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11-11-20 01:53 AM - Post#316507
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
The NBA did an excellent job with its bubble, better than I thought was possible. But I think people are losing sight of the fact that this wasn't just about good planning. There was a fair amount of good luck involved too. The second wave of cases peaked just as the NBA was restarting its season, which is a completely different scenario than what we're looking at this winter.
We already have uncontrolled spread—and unlike prior waves, this one has no geographic center, but is rather everywhere—and it's only getting worse. People are just tired of covid restrictions, and they want to visit their families. The WSJ already has a story about public health authorities trying to get high schools to cancel their basketball seasons. Given that the Ivies don't have the financial incentive to play that the big conferences do, we'll probably be more like the high schools in our decision-making. And we should be. The only thing we should be looking at right now, as a conference, is public health. By that metric, not playing is once again going to be the obvious decision.
It sucks, but that's where we are.
(Btw, here's the WSJ article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/health-exper ts-warn-o...
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21204
Reg: 12-02-04
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11-11-20 05:35 PM - Post#316540
In response to mobrien
Governor Cuomo just announced that indoor gatherings at private residences are limited to no more than 10 individuals, beginning on Friday at 10 pm.
Of course, save for households where there are more than 10 individuals.
An attempt to prevent a catastrophe from engulfing us during Thanksgiving and the winter holidays, although no doubt some folks will ignore this--and we will all suffer as a result.
In any event, does not seem like the timing is right for any indoor sports league activities.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32833
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-11-20 07:29 PM - Post#316545
In response to penn nation
I'm a little tired of symbolic gestures. If we can do it safely, we should do it. The danger of people coming home for Thanksgiving is an entirely different issue. We sent kids back to schools and they appear to have been the catalyst for this outbreak. But a bubble for Ivy basketball would not threaten any lives.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3054
Reg: 10-20-14
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11-11-20 08:17 PM - Post#316549
In response to palestra38
with regards to hockey:
https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/i d/302920...
- ECAC (TBD start)
The ECAC has made no formal announcements about return-to-play plans. As the conference that holds each of the six Ivy League universities with hockey programs, scheduling has to be difficult. Ivy League schools have suspended all athletics until January at the earliest. As a result, many players have left those programs to sign NHL contracts, play on pro deals in Europe or transfer schools. It remains unclear when ECAC will play and if it will be able to count on all of its member institutions fielding teams. -
- TEAMS MOST IMPACTED BY EARLY DEPARTURES
Harvard
Before the Ivy League announced that all athletics would be suspended until Jan. 1, it looked like the Crimson were going to return a team capable of contending for a national title. But then top defensemen Jack Rathbone and Reilly Walsh signed NHL contracts, second-leading scorer Jack Drury signed a contract to play in Sweden, and top recruit Matthew Beniers made the decision to de-commit and enroll at Michigan.
Cornell
The Big Red were No. 1 in the country when their 2019-20 season was cut short. They're going to have a competitive team once again, but leading scorer Morgan Barron signed his pro deal with the New York Rangers. Barron wanted to come back, but the delay in the season was going to be a little too challenging with his NHL career in the balance. The team also lost top returning defenseman Alex Green, who signed with the Lightning in September. -
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-11-20 10:41 PM - Post#316555
In response to rbg
I’m still hearing enough optimistic sounds that I’m not ready to say it’s over, but the cases being where they are right now is about the least auspicious environment you could have hoped for to make this decision.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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11-12-20 01:46 PM - Post#316580
In response to mrjames
ACC, including BC and Syracuse, just announced BB schedules for the upcoming season. There are a number of very good academic schools in the conference including Duke, UVA, WF,GT etc so we are not dealing with a bunch of crazy wild eyed administrators. Obviously, much larger conference with a lot more money at stake but they are certainly surviving the uncertainty surrounding COVID during the football season.
I watched WF play Syracuse on TV in an empty stadium two weekends ago with no players missing action due to COVID. During interviews, both coaches expressed concern that one of their players could catch COVID from a non-football classmate but they have established extremely specific safety guidelines and players have been really careful according to them.
Facts and reality get really blurred in the COVID conversation but colleges and pro teams have handled the situation very well and that is backed by numbers not speculation.
IL could do it if they want to but I have my doubts.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-12-20 03:12 PM - Post#316584
In response to bradley
18 FBS games have been cancelled in the past two weeks as the surge has intensified.
At present there are a bunch of college basketball teams that are on pause including at least two in my general vicinity (Seton Hall and Iona, the latter of which has already cancelled games).
I'd argue that college teams have managed better than I would have thought (though that's starting to deteriorate rapidly in the face of this surge), but "very well" is a bit of an overstatement.
I just don't foresee Ivy administrators wanting any part of trying to thread a difficult needle with such large downside risk. I don't blame them either. There is no feasible way for the Ivy League to play with 100% guaranteed safety, and I don't think the appetite for risk is all that large.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-12-20 03:50 PM - Post#316587
In response to mrjames
As reported by a few different folks - there's a meeting tonight. I don't think you need a prediction from me on what's gonna come out of that...
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3054
Reg: 10-20-14
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Ivy Season
11-12-20 04:03 PM - Post#316588
In response to mrjames
Yeah.
It was announced yesterday that 8 football players from Maryland tested positive and their game vs Ohio State was cancelled. With Big 10 protocols keeping positive players out for a minimum of 21 days, it is likely the Terps will have more games canceled.
I was just talking to a friend at University of Delaware. Two weeks ago, the campus had a semester low 19 cases. Last week, they had a then-semester high of 88 cases. This week, they've shattered their high with 97 cases in 5 days.
While some areas had good results during the summer, as a country we've never really gotten out of the first wave. Now, the numbers of positive cases are growing incredibly fast and are expected to get even worse.
Based on present covid numbers and past league decisions, its certainly hard to see the IL presidents going ahead with any type of winter sports season.
Edited by rbg on 11-12-20 04:05 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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11-12-20 04:12 PM - Post#316591
In response to rbg
Here is the tweet from Dana O'Neil:
Sources tell The Athletic: Ivy League presidents will present plans for winter and spring sports in calls to coaches and athletes this evening. Stay tuned ...
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21204
Reg: 12-02-04
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11-12-20 04:15 PM - Post#316592
In response to mrjames
Yeah, Iona recently had a bad breakout, all centered on athletes.
The stretch up and down North Avenue in New Rochelle has been about as hard hit this year as anywhere in America.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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11-12-20 05:03 PM - Post#316600
In response to mrjames
I agree that an argument as to using the term very well could be made but if one listens to interviews of NCAAF coaches and players and administrators, they strongly believe that the right decision was made to play. They have been necessary adjustments, including the rescheduling of games. Empirical evidence, so far, would suggest that they made the correct decision but time will tell. The naysayers could also be questioned as what they predicted would happen vs. reality to date. Theories are fine but facts are facts and playing has not been the calamity predicted by some.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-12-20 05:11 PM - Post#316602
In response to bradley
Well, we’ll have plenty of time to debate in the aftermath of this evening...
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-12-20 05:58 PM - Post#316608
In response to mrjames
Considering the announcement is coming now amid a disastrous wave with daily records for positive test results, that sure seems like a 99.999999% signal that the season isn't happening.
Considering my wife and I are debating if we even see her family for Thanksgiving (even when they've already been in our extended bubble and we have been seeing them last few months), it would be hard to argue against.
The person I will feel the worst for all around if season is officially canceled is Jelani Williams... never playing a minute for Penn, overcoming 3 ACL tears to come back this year... and have the season canceled.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2692
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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11-12-20 06:06 PM - Post#316609
In response to Mike Porter
Today's Sports Update:
New Jersey and six other states announced a joint agreement suspending interstate youth hockey competition through at least the end of 2020, Gov. Phil Murphy announced Thursday.
New Jersey, Maine, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, and Massachusetts all have agreed to the suspension, Murphy said, and there are efforts to get additional states to join the agreement, he said.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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11-12-20 06:18 PM - Post#316612
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
It's all shutting down again. It's inevitable. The question is for how long. What happens to high school recruiting? They got the season in last year...
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2692
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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11-12-20 06:31 PM - Post#316613
In response to Quakers03
The NCAA and big school sports involves so much money that it won't go easily, but I think it eventually will. The Notre Dame fiasco with fans storming the field is remarkable.
The daily new case counts are remarkabe at over 140,000 - and they not due to increased testing as positivity rates are rising. Positity rates in NY are approaching the 3% number that will close all schools. Record hospitalizations now followed up by rising death counts.
I've expected things to shut down around Thanksgiving for an appreciable period, and still feel that they should. Not a complete shutdown, but a significant one that would certainly encompass athletics.
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