bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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04-12-21 08:01 AM - Post#323133
In response to mrjames
Time will tell. The ultimate test will be the won/loss record in non-conference play over the next few years and I hope that I am wrong.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-12-21 10:03 AM - Post#323139
In response to bradley
That's certainly fair, but I also think it's important to contextualize the thinking now.
The best KP year for the league was 2019, in which the league finished with a +0.47 efficiency margin (that is the efficiency margin that would yield a .500 winning percentage expectation in league play). 2020 was close (a little better at the top, but a lot worse at the bottom) at -0.95. In those two years, a team needed to be in the 160s or 180s, respectively, to be expected to go 7-7.
KP's expectation for the league in 2021 was -4.66, which would have joined 2018 in a rough tie for the worst league season since 2010. A team in the 210s would be expected to finish 7-7.
My argument is that the 2020 to 2021 drop represents the significant step back the league had to take following the strong 2016 recruiting class. While I don't suspect 21-22 will get us back close to 2020, I do suspect it will have a good shot of moving us back in that direction. So, I just want to make sure that in the post hoc analysis, say, a -3.50 isn't viewed as a confirmatory step back for the league, but rather an improvement over where the league likely would have been if it had fully internalized the loss of the 2016 class in playing this past season.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3589
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-12-21 05:26 PM - Post#323148
In response to mrjames
You are effectively saying we'll suck less than we otherwise would have next year? So we got that goin for us, which is nice.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-12-21 06:16 PM - Post#323149
In response to PennFan10
Sort of... what I'm really saying is that we missed what would have been a pretty forgettable year *this year.* And while next year might not be at the level we're used to, at least we didn't have to see what this year would have brought... Does that sound positive enough?
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3589
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-12-21 09:29 PM - Post#323150
In response to mrjames
half full! I am in.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1173
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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04-14-21 02:04 PM - Post#323170
In response to PennFan10
"The food in this restaurant is awful."
"Yeah, and the portions are tiny!"
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-14-21 02:15 PM - Post#323174
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
It's hard to find a nice way to say: "skipping 2020 doesn't matter because we would have been really bad anyway and we didn't lose anything we weren't supposed to lose, which is good, but that doesn't guarantee we'll be that much better next year, just that we won't be worse."
I'm getting why people just say: It is what it is.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-14-21 08:05 PM - Post#323190
In response to mrjames
It is helpful to keep in mind, though. I think the league is going to have more struggles competitively next year than you do. If I am right about that (or just if there is a drop off from 2019 at all), there will be a tendency for people to say “you see, the league is worse because they shut down for 2020.†And that won’t necessarily be the whole story. we were likely to be worse in 2020 anyway.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2697
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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04-14-21 08:23 PM - Post#323191
In response to SomeGuy
Mike, I guess that rationale applies to the league, but it's a tougher pill to swallow for Yale (likely to win the title) and Brown (likely to make the Ivy Tournament).
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-14-21 10:08 PM - Post#323195
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Losing 2020 was certainly rough for Yale and Brown, but Yale maneuvered around it decently well keeping Swain, and Choh ain’t gone from Brown just yet.
Certainly both of those teams would have benefitted *relative* to the rest of League this season, but they might be somewhat okay on an absolute basis next season. Definitely will be up against stronger teams though and a Harvard team that still gets to host the Ivy Tourney.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2697
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Transfer List
04-15-21 12:15 PM - Post#323217
In response to mrjames
Points well made.
But ...... Atkinson. With graduations (Lewis, Broduer, Tape, Aririzugoh) there wouldn't have been a center in the league able to contend with him.
Looking forward to making plans for Lavietes for the 3rd year in a row!
It'll be strange as I was there on March 7, 2020 when Harvard beat Yale. Must admit I knew enought to wonder if we were safe, and recall that out of 1636 fans, only ONE was wearing a mask! As we soon learned, that was the epitome of being 'the smartest person in the room."
Wonder what it will be like next March, or even sooner?
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 04-15-21 12:16 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Transfer List
04-15-21 02:00 PM - Post#323230
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Yep. Atkinson is basically the difference (and potentially Choh if he doesn't come back to Brown). Those losses will hurt Yale (and potentially Brown), respectively, but Yale will get Swain and Gabbidon for 21-22 when they wouldn't have if they played 20-21, so that should even the two years out a bit. Brown losing Choh entirely, though, would be really tough, as it already has a lot of work to do to find players that can score.
You could have made a strong argument that Yale would be 1 and Brown would have been solidly Top 4 this season and yet, at those exact same absolute ratings, would potentially be 2 and at risk, respectively, next season.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Transfer List
04-15-21 03:31 PM - Post#323233
In response to mrjames
The lost season complicates things significantly, though. When we looked before at your predictions (and any good ones, really), you nail some things, but you also miss significantly on others. Yale in 2019-2020 significantly outperformed your expectations (and everyone else’s). But that performance becomes a primary factor in evaluating 2021. Taking a year away detracts a lot from what we can say about 2022.
For a team like Harvard, for example, we would have had a lot more information regarding whether the recruiting gap manifested in oncourt performance. They could have struggled as an inexperienced team in 2021. They also could have performed like the Fab Five and killed everyone right off the bat. Either of those results (or even the more likely in between) would be a lot more information about what we will see in 2022. Instead, we get a blank page.
For Penn, most of us expected a drop, and perhaps a significant one. But 2021 would have given us a lot of information as to whether P38 could be right about MLL, among other things. There was a chance (perhaps a small one) that Penn just kept chugging along in the top 4, and if they did, we’d know a lot more about 2022.
The high mark for both of those teams is high enough that, in combination with a strong Yale team and potential at Brown, the league could have been better than expected in 2021. Perhaps it is unlikely, but I don’t think we know enough to be sure. And that full year without info kind of doubles what is already an imperfect view of what will really happen in 2022.
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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Transfer List
04-16-21 01:25 PM - Post#323253
In response to SomeGuy
https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1 383106492...
Unsurprisingly, Cornell's Jimmy Boeheim will be playing for his dad at Syracuse next season
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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04-16-21 07:35 PM - Post#323267
In response to SomeGuy
I tend to agree with you that the IL will have a rough non-conference in 2021. Anyone who has played basketball at a very competitive level understands the impact of not playing BB for an extended period of time besides the significant loss of talent. Boeheim is just the latest talent casualty hit for the league. He may well get some significant playing time at Syracuse.
I suspect that Yale will still be a very competitive team partially due to Swain but more so based on Coach Jones. Harvard should be very competitive in league play but not sure how Yale and Harvard will perform in non-conference play -- have my doubts but hopefully Il teams somehow step up.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4917
Reg: 02-04-06
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04-17-21 05:33 AM - Post#323274
In response to bradley
Let’s have some unreasonable homer optimism. Princeton is going to be better than expected, despite the painful lost year with Schweiger. Evbuomwan will play big, Langborg and Freiburg and Wright will light it up, and one of the freshmen will turn out to be good right away. Johns will get his confidence back and depth will be sufficient. Meanwhile Llewelyn will reach the heights of leadership and two-way production toward which he has been building.
After this last horrible year, for once hope is a plan.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3060
Reg: 10-20-14
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04-20-21 10:02 PM - Post#323429
In response to SRP
Men
Transferred
Paul Atkinson (Yale): Notre Dame
Brendan Barry (Dartmouth): Temple - played this season
Tai Bibbs (Columbia): Howard
Jimmy Boeheim (Cornell): Syracuse
Randy Brumant (Columbia): Howard
Jerome Desrosiers (Princeton): Hawaii
Matt DeWolf (Brown): Washington State
Danilo Djuricic (Harvard): Santa Clara
Rio Haskett (Harvard): Hampton
Chris Knight (Dartmouth): Loyola-Chicago
Terrance McBride (Cornell): Rice
Ryan Schwieger (Princeton): Loyola-Chicago
Joseph Smoyer (Columbia): Chaminade
Gabe Stefanini (Columbia): San Francisco
Entered Transfer Portal
Luke Bolster (Columbia)
Tamenang Choh (Brown)
Reed Farley (Harvard)
Jake Klores (Columbia)
Bryan Knapp (Cornell)
Aaryn Rai (Dartmouth)
Eddie Scott (Penn) - 2 years remaining
Jake Shaper (Brown)
Jarrod Simmons (Penn)
Riley Voss (Cornell)
Returning
Jameel Alausa (Yale) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Charlie Bagin (Princeton) - taking year off, probably returning in 2021-2022
Elijah Barnes (Princeton) - taking year off, probably returning in 2021-2022
Jalen Gabbidon (Yale) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
EJ Perry (Brown) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Azar Swain (Yale) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Wyatt Yess (Yale) - staying at Yale for grad school, returning for 2021-2022
Unclear
Mark Jackson (Penn)
Ben Swett (Dartmouth)
Jelani Williams (Penn) - possibly staying for 5th year in 2021-2022
Women
Transferred
Jadyn Bush (Harvard): Cal - 2 years remaining
Riley Casey (Columbia): William & Mary
McKenna Dale (Brown): Virginia - 2 years remaining
McKenna Haire (Princeton): Hawaii
Carlie Littlefield (Princeton): North Carolina
Anna Luce (Dartmouth): San Jose State
Madison Pack (Columbia): Western Carolina
Eleah Parker (Penn): Virginia
Kallin Spiller (Columbia): Hawaii
Kate Sramac (Cornell): William & Mary
Entered Transfer Portal
Maria Guramare (Harvard)
Katie Kinum (Penn)
Dominique Leonidas (Brown)
Asha Taylor (Dartmouth) - graduating after junior year, will have 2 years remaining
Returning
Alex Cade (Yale) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Rachel Levy (Harvard) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Maddie Stuhlreyer (Harvard) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Not Returning
Tori Andrew (Yale) - enrolled, law school in 2021-2022
Ellen Margaret Andrews (Yale) - enrolled, has 2 years of eligibility remaining, joining Teach for America in 2021-2022
Sydney Boyer (Princeton) - enrolled, not entering transfer portal
Tori Crawford (Penn) - enrolled, no decision announced for 2021-2022
Christina Dicindio (Penn) - enrolled, no decision announced for 2021-2022
Michae Jones (Penn) - enrolled, no decision announced for 2021-2022
Elle Louie (Dartmouth) - working in engineering & computer science in 2021-2022
Andrea McCormick (Columbia) - enrolled, no decision announced for 2021-2022
Halley Miklos (Cornell) - enrolled, no decision announced for 2021-2022
Matilda Salen (Harvard) - enrolled, not entering transfer portal
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3060
Reg: 10-20-14
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04-27-21 09:38 AM - Post#323624
In response to rbg
Cornell's Bryan Knapp will head to GW next year.
https://twitter.com/bpkbaseball/status/13 868059456...
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3060
Reg: 10-20-14
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04-27-21 09:46 AM - Post#323625
In response to rbg
Men
Transferred
Paul Atkinson (Yale): Notre Dame
Brendan Barry (Dartmouth): Temple - played this season
Tai Bibbs (Columbia): Howard
Jimmy Boeheim (Cornell): Syracuse
Randy Brumant (Columbia): Howard
Jerome Desrosiers (Princeton): Hawaii
Matt DeWolf (Brown): Washington State
Danilo Djuricic (Harvard): Santa Clara
Rio Haskett (Harvard): Hampton
Bryan Knapp (Cornell): George Washington
Chris Knight (Dartmouth): Loyola-Chicago
Terrance McBride (Cornell): Rice
Ryan Schwieger (Princeton): Loyola-Chicago
Joseph Smoyer (Columbia): Chaminade
Gabe Stefanini (Columbia): San Francisco
Entered Transfer Portal
Luke Bolster (Columbia)
Tamenang Choh (Brown)
Reed Farley (Harvard)
Jake Klores (Columbia)
Aaryn Rai (Dartmouth)
Eddie Scott (Penn) - 2 years remaining
Jake Shaper (Brown)
Jarrod Simmons (Penn)
Riley Voss (Cornell)
Returning
Jameel Alausa (Yale) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Charlie Bagin (Princeton) - taking year off, probably returning in 2021-2022
Elijah Barnes (Princeton) - taking year off, probably returning in 2021-2022
Jalen Gabbidon (Yale) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
EJ Perry (Brown) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Azar Swain (Yale) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Wyatt Yess (Yale) - staying at Yale for grad school, returning for 2021-2022
Unclear
Mark Jackson (Penn)
Ben Swett (Dartmouth)
Jelani Williams (Penn) - possibly staying for 5th year in 2021-2022
Women
Transferred
Jadyn Bush (Harvard): Cal - 2 years remaining
Riley Casey (Columbia): William & Mary
McKenna Dale (Brown): Virginia - 2 years remaining
McKenna Haire (Princeton): Hawaii
Carlie Littlefield (Princeton): North Carolina
Anna Luce (Dartmouth): San Jose State
Madison Pack (Columbia): Western Carolina
Eleah Parker (Penn): Virginia
Kallin Spiller (Columbia): Hawaii
Kate Sramac (Cornell): William & Mary
Entered Transfer Portal
Maria Guramare (Harvard)
Katie Kinum (Penn)
Dominique Leonidas (Brown)
Asha Taylor (Dartmouth) - graduating after junior year, will have 2 years remaining
Returning
Alex Cade (Yale) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Rachel Levy (Harvard) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Maddie Stuhlreyer (Harvard) - taking year off, returning in 2021-2022
Not Returning
Tori Andrew (Yale) - enrolled, law school in 2021-2022
Ellen Margaret Andrews (Yale) - enrolled, has 2 years of eligibility remaining, joining Teach for America in 2021-2022
Sydney Boyer (Princeton) - enrolled, not entering transfer portal
Tori Crawford (Penn) - enrolled, no decision announced for 2021-2022
Christina Dicindio (Penn) - enrolled, no decision announced for 2021-2022
Michae Jones (Penn) - enrolled, no decision announced for 2021-2022
Elle Louie (Dartmouth) - working in engineering & computer science in 2021-2022
Andrea McCormick (Columbia) - enrolled, no decision announced for 2021-2022
Halley Miklos (Cornell) - enrolled, no decision announced for 2021-2022
Matilda Salen (Harvard) - enrolled, not entering transfer portal
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3060
Reg: 10-20-14
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04-28-21 10:57 AM - Post#323679
In response to rbg
Riley Voss (Cornell) will head to Wright State.
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