Anonymous
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02-20-06 02:01 PM - Post#16021
With all of the talk about a lot of big-name programs not wanting to play the Bison, I was curious about the effect of a strong school playing a weak team from a weak conference at home instead of playing the Bison. I had a couple of scenarios I wanted to work through but I'm not sure where to begin. Is there any web-site that helps to work out "what ifs" or is it just a matter of crunching a lot of numbers?
Specifically, I wanted to test the following:
1. If Maryland had played Bucknell at home instead of Nicholls State, how would their RPI have been affected if (a) they had beaten us; or (b) they had lost to us?
2. Seton Hall - same questions if they had replaced Morgan State with the Bison.
3. Penn State - same questions if they had played us instead of St Francis (PA) or Nicholls State.
Obviously a win over us would have boosted their RPI, but I'm not sure by how much. And I wonder if even losing to us, with our great record, would have been marginally better than beating a horrendous team.
Any thoughts?
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ericatbucknell
PhD Student
Posts: 1940
Reg: 01-22-06
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Re: RPI Question for Eric
02-20-06 07:12 PM - Post#16022
In response to
i have yet to find a site that will do the math for me... so i do it myself. i will run through those scenarios sometime this evening.
until then, my latest rpi projections:
win out: 0.5865
home loss: 0.5752
in short, i wouldnt be counting on an at-large come selection sunday. our rpi, should we lose in the pl championship game, is very much in the 'danger zone' as bracketologists like to call it.
The Bracket Bustin' Bison are Back!
Okay. First round streak BACK ON! |
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ericatbucknell
PhD Student
Posts: 1940
Reg: 01-22-06
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Re: RPI Question for Eric
02-20-06 08:14 PM - Post#16023
In response to ericatbucknell
okay, i took some shortcuts.
first, i compared saint francis (pa) and bucknell and assumed a 30 game season because within this scenario all rpi differences would be the same. surprisingly, beating both comes out to a STAGGERING rpi improvment of 0.0129. this was the difference between 40th and 53rd in the rpi last season. definite bubble impact.
LOSING to bucknell at home is also better than beating up on st francis. the impact is obviously much smaller and this time is variable do to home/away game weighting, but penn state worked out to an improvement of 0.0028 and seton hall 0.0025. i would expect a similar number to seton halls (which corresponds to a couple of places in the rpi) for most bubble teams.
of course, there are good reasons for not playing a good mid-major in your nonconference schedule. impact on rpi is by no means one of them. in fact, theyre the best teams to schedule because their strengths (high winning percentages) are heavily weighted in the system while their weaknesses (strength of schedules) are minimalized.
The Bracket Bustin' Bison are Back!
Okay. First round streak BACK ON! |
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Anonymous
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Re: RPI Question for Eric
02-20-06 10:36 PM - Post#16024
In response to ericatbucknell
Quote:
okay, i took some shortcuts.
first, i compared saint francis (pa) and bucknell and assumed a 30 game season because within this scenario all rpi differences would be the same. surprisingly, beating both comes out to a STAGGERING rpi improvment of 0.0129. this was the difference between 40th and 53rd in the rpi last season. definite bubble impact.
LOSING to bucknell at home is also better than beating up on st francis. the impact is obviously much smaller and this time is variable do to home/away game weighting, but penn state worked out to an improvement of 0.0028 and seton hall 0.0025. i would expect a similar number to seton halls (which corresponds to a couple of places in the rpi) for most bubble teams.
of course, there are good reasons for not playing a good mid-major in your nonconference schedule. impact on rpi is by no means one of them. in fact, theyre the best teams to schedule because their strengths (high winning percentages) are heavily weighted in the system while their weaknesses (strength of schedules) are minimalized.
Thanks. Someone should run some of these scenarios for the big conference teams that won't play us. Basically it seems like the upside outweighs the downside by a lot. Win and your RPI goes up by 10-15 slots. Lose and your RPI goes up by a small amount, although at the cost of a win. Strong teams playing at home should figure the chances of a win are fairly high and, either way, it helps the RPI.
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Anonymous
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Re: RPI Question for Eric
02-21-06 12:51 AM - Post#16025
In response to
Nice win by Syracuse tonight. Every little bit helps.
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Anonymous
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Re: RPI Question for Eric
02-21-06 01:19 AM - Post#16026
In response to
Quote:
Nice win by Syracuse tonight. Every little bit helps.
Yep. With their RPI and very high SOS, I think one more win (DePaul or first round of BE tournament) for the year will assure them of a bid. Ideally they will also upset Georgetown or even Villanova to make our win over them look better.
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