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Username Post: Ivy Projections from Torvik        (Topic#25485)
iogyhufi 
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10-07-21 06:07 PM - Post#326979    

I've been wondering how the stat guys will handle the Ivies preseason, due to the whole "not playing last year" thing. Bart Torvik is the first that I'm aware of who's posted his preseason projections: http://barttorvik.com/?conlimit=Ivy&sta te=All&...

He's got the Ivies ranked as follows (national ranking out of 358 teams in parentheses):
Yale (159)
Penn (205)
Princeton (213)
Harvard (220)
Brown (309)
Dartmouth (329)
Cornell (341)
Columbia (348)

If this played out, this would constitute the worst Ivy League we've had top-to-bottom in years. It's roughly comparable to the final numbers for 2017-18, when Penn got a 16-seed. But even then, the Ivy League had two top 150 teams and four top 200 teams in KenPom.

It's hard to say how you could account for a league simply not playing in an all-encompassing statistical model (I'd love to ask mrjames, but alas, 'tis not to be), but I have to think that the Ivy League is going to be massively undervalued as a whole to start the year.

 
SomeGuy 
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Re: Ivy Projections from Torvik
10-07-21 06:45 PM - Post#326980    
    In response to iogyhufi

The situation certainly challenges all that we assume about experience and return minutes. I assume half the league is at the very bottom of the country in this regard.

The question is how much of the statistical reliance on return minutes stems from the importance of experience, and how much it serves as a proxy for estimating the value and ability of the returning players. If it is just a proxy, then we can throw out these types of projections completely. But if it shows that experience is what matters, well, the league is in for a rough season. My guess, as with most things, is that the answer is somewhere in between. So the league will dip, but not as much as this projection suggests.


 
PennFan10 
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10-08-21 09:26 AM - Post#326983    
    In response to SomeGuy

There is a lot more talent in the league than Torvik's model can capture. Experience and returning minutes are important, but this is an anomaly situation that may not be accurately captured by models. I don't think Torvik takes into account how much actual talent teams like Harvard, Brown, Yale and even Penn have on their rosters.

My guess is that we will have at least 4 top 200 teams and possibly 1 top 100 team by the end of the season. I mean Brown at 309? That seems wildly out of touch with the analysis of their talent we have seen here.

 
iogyhufi 
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10-08-21 10:35 AM - Post#326984    
    In response to PennFan10

I completely agree—gun to my head, I would guess that HY finish in the top 125, Princeton finishes top 150, Penn top 200, and that we have at most one team ranked in the 300s. There's far too much talent in the league for it to end up looking like that.

We're about a month out today and I feel like I did as a kid when my mom broke out the Advent calendar for the first time—I can hardly wait!

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-08-21 11:32 AM - Post#326985    
    In response to iogyhufi

Given the graduations and transfers, as well as the unknowns associated with two new classes and return of players who have been out for some time, I wouldn't be surprised to see some bumpy starts. Amaker may not be the only one experimenting, but this year certainly will have a lot of uncertainty and unpredictability.

 
bradley 
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10-08-21 05:29 PM - Post#326986    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

It would seem logical that the IL will get off to a slow start but one never knows. I suspect that teams with the exception of 1 maybe 2 will have a rough non-conference schedule although several schools have a pretty soft schedule.

Not playing last year had consequences and will probably still have consequences for the upcoming year. No sense looking back but hopefully the IL learned some lessons for the future.

 
SomeGuy 
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10-09-21 12:16 AM - Post#326992    
    In response to PennFan10

He is missing Choh for Brown. He is also missing Rai for Dartmouth, and has numbers for Barry that do not seem in line with past performance. So those two teams seem like they are significantly undervalued.

 
iogyhufi 
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Reg: 10-10-17
Ivy Projections from Torvik
10-12-21 12:05 PM - Post#327063    
    In response to SomeGuy

As a contrast, Matt Norlander is putting out his own personal eye test rankings starting today:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ne ws/...

Notables:
Penn 201
Cornell 250
Columbia 257
Dartmouth 282

The numbers are more in line with what I'd expect from the league ranking-wise, but I dunno that I'd have the teams in this order; Penn out of the top 4 is especially an eyebrow-raiser, plus D seems too low given who's coming back (granted that losing Chris Knight hurts, but getting Brendan Barry back is a huge plus).

Edited by iogyhufi on 10-12-21 12:06 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
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Re: Ivy Projections from Torvik
10-12-21 01:17 PM - Post#327074    
    In response to iogyhufi

That sure is an anecdote and predict formula. But I disagree that to get in the top 3, Jordan Dingle has to be one of the top 2 players in the League. He's going to be really good. It's guys like Wang and Williams and Washington that are the question marks. I see Penn making the Ivy playoffs as a 3 or 4 even if none of these guys do anything. If they do, watch out.

 
welcometothejungle 
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Ivy Projections from Torvik
10-13-21 10:24 PM - Post#327118    
    In response to palestra38

Matt Norlander published #69-200 which rounded out the league

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ne ws/...

Yale 88
Harvard 109
Brown 156
Princeton 167
Penn 202
Cornell 250
Columbia 257
Dartmouth 282

 
palestra38 
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Re: Ivy Projections from Torvik
10-14-21 08:36 AM - Post#327126    
    In response to welcometothejungle

Agree with Yale. Disagree with just about everything else. But no one really knows after a year off.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-14-21 08:45 AM - Post#327129    
    In response to palestra38

CBS team descriptions seem to convey concerns that Brown and Princeton may be under ranked.

Agrees with what I’ve been saying about Harvard by recognizing the trio of Kirkwood, Ledlum and Forbes as a solid returning core.

Agrees with everyone that Yale and Swain are the team to beat.

 
SomeGuy 
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Ivy Projections from Torvik
10-14-21 10:24 AM - Post#327133    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

After a year off, I will be surprised if Brown is that high. Depends a lot on the guards. If the newcomers at guard are immediate stars, sure. But that is asking an awful lot, even of transfers. Brown will defend. The question will be whether they can score efficiently.

Edited by SomeGuy on 10-14-21 10:24 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PennFan10 
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10-14-21 10:24 AM - Post#327134    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I think Harvard is the team to beat. Louis Lesmond might be one of the best players in the league, this year. I'll be shocked if he doesn't start alongside those other guys day 1. They have the most talent of any team by a good margin.

 
rbg 
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10-14-21 12:17 PM - Post#327138    
    In response to PennFan10

I certainly understand why Yale is the top pick. Star players, great coach, strong system and solid role players make them a top team every year.

Harvard appears to have the most overall talent. Staying healthy will be a big key if they want to win the league.

Princeton really looks dangerous. There's a lot of good players coming back. Hopefully, Llewellyn is healthy.

I see Brown, Dartmouth and Penn in the mix for fourth place. If Wang and Washington have bounce back years, I think Penn can separate themselves from this pack. If not, I think Brown gets to the Ivy Tournament.

Columbia doesn't have the same talent from two years ago, but should get more wins. The future looks better, after seeing the recruits on the Columbia board.

I think Brian Earl always exceeds expectations, but he's lost a lot from the previous team. It's hard to predict Cornell anywhere but 8.


 
iogyhufi 
Masters Student
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Reg: 10-10-17
10-14-21 01:28 PM - Post#327143    
    In response to rbg

I think what's been lost is an equally important question as what's coming back. Continuity makes everything so much easier. Penn is usually good, yes, but Brodeur isn't going to be an easy player to replace - he was an extremely high-usage player around whom the entire offense and defense revolved. Yale loses Atkinson, who isn't going to be there to command a double every time down (which is gonna make offense a lot harder), they don't have an obvious replacement lined up, and they're going to be really really young in the frontcourt this year.

On the other side, Harvard lost plenty, but the fact that the league no longer has a ton of bruising post players makes losing Lewis hurt less (I will need to be substantially convinced that Mason Forbes will be a danger man this year, but his skinniness will hurt less without Aririguzoh/Atkinson/Brode ur/Knight to whale on him) and the others were really more role players than central pieces, with the possible exception of Juzang. I think Harvard might well be the leader in the clubhouse come Ivy season, especially if Yale can't come up with a solid contributor down low.

 
iogyhufi 
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
10-14-21 01:29 PM - Post#327144    
    In response to iogyhufi

(Am I trying to reverse jinx Yale? I refuse to say )

 
palestra38 
Professor
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10-14-21 01:37 PM - Post#327145    
    In response to iogyhufi

The loudest posters on this issue are betting on potential---Harvard clearly has the highest rated recruits. But they only have 2 guys coming back who had meaningful experience in Kirkwood and Ledlum. Compare that with Yale who brings back Swain, Cotton and Gabbidon.

And Penn brings back more than anyone. But recruiting class this year, blah blah blah. The next Ivy team that wins with freshmen leading the way will be unique.

 
PennFan10 
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10-14-21 01:50 PM - Post#327147    
    In response to palestra38

The pandemic is unique. Never had teams with 2 recruiting classes never playing a minute but lots of practice time. We won't ever see it again. So I expect some unusual results. Freshmen have won the national championship so it's not that unusual. The bottom line is that talent, of which the Ivy League has plenty, is going to win and eventually it trumps even experience. I think Harvard has talent that trumps experience this year.

 
palestra38 
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
10-14-21 02:10 PM - Post#327149    
    In response to PennFan10

Even at Harvard's level, freshmen have never dominated a winning team. This ain't the Fab 5.

But it certainly will be interesting. Too bad the schedule is so ridiculous that lots of games will be with no one watching....at least live.

 
PennFan10 
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10-14-21 02:25 PM - Post#327151    
    In response to palestra38

There have been lots of examples more recent than the fab five. It happens every year that freshmen dominate the NCAA basketball landscape. It just hasn't happened in the IL, yet. I am betting that changes this year as Louis Lesmond is the best recruit Harvard has ever had.

 
palestra38 
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
10-14-21 03:17 PM - Post#327153    
    In response to PennFan10

You have a pinky bet from me as to the regular season.

I'm not betting against them in the Ivy playoff at their high school gym.

 
PennFan10 
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10-14-21 03:40 PM - Post#327154    
    In response to palestra38

Sweet. You are on. I agree on the ILT

 
iogyhufi 
Masters Student
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Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
Ivy Projections from Torvik
10-14-21 04:38 PM - Post#327159    
    In response to PennFan10

Man, Harvard will have to be careful not to let their inexperience cause them to lose those trap games in conference, otherwise they might get swept by Brown or Cornell!

(I kid, but I wouldn't pick Harvard to be outright RS Ivy champs for precisely this reason—it's too easy to drop winnable games with an inexperienced team. The tournament, however, is a different beast.)

Edited by iogyhufi on 10-14-21 04:38 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
SomeGuy 
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10-14-21 05:29 PM - Post#327161    
    In response to PennFan10

I have questions about how Harvard’s returnees fit. The reason some of the projections don’t like them, i suspect, is that they will become even more dependent on Ledlum and Kirkwood, and neither has been a positive ORAT player so far. So statistically they become less efficient by counting on them more. Now, both players are very talented, so they could be high ORAT guys now. But when last we saw, they were not.

Yes, talent could win out, but Yale has a talented team and statistical evidence that backs it up.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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10-14-21 08:46 PM - Post#327165    
    In response to palestra38

I’m looking forward to seeing how guys who played behind their stars turn out. Catchings, Tretout and Sakota did play important minutes while newbies and Ajogbor, Pitcher and Hemings all have size. One or two of the latter 3 must step up.

 
SomeGuy 
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Reg: 11-22-04
10-14-21 09:06 PM - Post#327166    
    In response to iogyhufi

I think Yale will be fine up front. Admittedly, that is more based on years of observing Jones’ teams than it is on any specific players. Somebody just always steps up for Yale in the front court.

 
welcometothejungle 
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10-14-21 09:41 PM - Post#327167    
    In response to SomeGuy

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/ivy-2021-22-pr...

Continuing on the topic, Three Man Weave posted their always detailed league preview:

Tier 1
1. Yale
2. Penn
3. Princeton
4. Harvard

Tier 2
5. Brown
6. Dartmouth

Tier 3
7. Cornell
8. Columbia

Definitely worth a read

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
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Reg: 02-15-15
Ivy Projections from Torvik
10-15-21 12:19 AM - Post#327173    
    In response to welcometothejungle

  • welcometothejungle Said:
https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/ivy-2021-22-pr...

Continuing on the topic, Three Man Weave posted their always detailed league preview:

Tier 1
1. Yale
2. Penn
3. Princeton
4. Harvard

Tier 2
5. Brown
6. Dartmouth

Tier 3
7. Cornell
8. Columbia

Definitely worth a read




"Outside of Harvard, Penn might have the most talent in the Ivy League; the problem is that injuries are a red flag large enough to cover the entire state of Pennsylvania. If Wang, Williams, Charles, and Washington (hell, even three of the four) can play the whole season, Penn could rise to the top of the league. If they all spend more time on the training table than the hardwood, then Brown could pip the Quakers for a top four spot. Donahue has dominated the Ivy before with skill-rich rosters (see: Cornell torching the league from 2008-10, Penn in 2018), but the range of outcomes here is gargantuan."

Edited by PennFan10 on 10-15-21 12:19 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy Projections from Torvik
10-15-21 07:15 AM - Post#327176    
    In response to PennFan10

Sounds like what I said above---we could challenge for the title if healthy---challenge for 4th if not. No reason to think Jonah Charles---who was very highly rated and looked good in preseason prep before getting injured in 2019-- will not be fully healthy.

Still, Lorca-Lloyd turned down Harvard (something that almost never happens these days), and, with Dingle, Martz and Monroe, makes Penn as talented as anyone in the starting 5, before you add all the guys coming off of injury and the freshmen. It won't take all of the injured coming back strong for Penn to be very good.

 
welcometothejungle 
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10-17-21 09:45 AM - Post#327210    
    In response to palestra38

KenPom's preseason ratings are out this morning. For the Ivy:

#164 Princeton
#165 Yale
#190 Harvard
#215 Penn
#251 Brown
#281 Dartmouth
#288 Cornell
#334 Columbia

First place I've seen Princeton #1 (albeit very slightly over Yale). The preseason conference ranking puts the Ivy at #23 out of 32 conferences, which would be the league's worst finish since 2010.

 
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