palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-13-21 06:50 PM - Post#328370
In response to The Agenda
Well, there are excuses. 2 years off---entirely new lineup, tough 1st road site, horrible travel nightmare before the second game. So yes, things look horrible and could be horrible, but we're not quite there yet.
As I said before, we'll know much more after Bucknell.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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11-13-21 07:52 PM - Post#328375
In response to palestra38
Tomorrow, FSU is also playing against Florida (game time one hour before the Bucknell game), so we'll see how good FSU really is--or not.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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11-13-21 08:38 PM - Post#328381
In response to penn nation
Two games is enough to give us some major clues about the pre-ivy portion of this year.
1. The team has one certain holdover with Div-1 talent, Dingle. Charles and Martz may have that talent. Wang did pre-injuries. This is the cost of the lost year of playing and the several seasons of poor recruiting and injuries. Yale has 4 good returnees, HARVARD 4, and the Pussies 2. Penn had two guys with plenty of minutes, but only Dingle is a star. We hope that Martz will be a Grandieri and Charles keep hitting his three. No proof yet.
2. We have no holdover team skills on either end of the court. This is the cost of the lost year of playing and the loss of the two most important players in the old scheme based around the best big in program history and a very quick point guard. The team needs a completely different scheme to succeed with the talent it has. That don’t show up on day one.
3. The team has no newcomers ready for instant contributions. This is the cost of no 3-star recruits. Yale has one, Harvard has five, Princeton none. Except for Haaaarvard, that is no significant difference. Remember that, except for the AJ year, Steve has not recruited well. Jones and Henderson are doing something Steve is apparently not.
4. The team has depth in young wing players 6’4” to 6’7”. They are 2-star players with some potential, the kind that Franny feasted on. It will take time to develop them, to identify the gems, if any; at least the first half of the season, probably more.
5. The team needs a new team concept lacking the extraordinary big and quick point guard that dominated the scheme for the four previous years. It will take time to rejigger the schemes to fit the existing talent and to cover up the lack of the point guard and bigs.
6. It was obvious that our optimism of just last week, (me too) was naive in the extreme. 2-star players with no game experience do not open with success against good teams. It looks pretty likely that little development will mature before the Ivies. 4-10 would be a major success. 2-12 is more likely.
7. This talent collection reminds us of the Jerome years: lots of tantalizing tweeners. Under Jerome they seldom developed. Clearly Steve is better at development. But by just a little. Consider this based on Pomeroy. Jerome average ranking 237, Steve 177. Jerome peak year 139, Steve 125. Jerome without Silpe 263, Steve without AJ 248 (so far). The meaningful difference between the two was the blue snow recruit, AJ. Steve also benefited strongly from Foreman and Woods, Jerome recruits. Now in comparison, Franny’s last six years (includes the one holdover with Miller): Average ranking 74, Peak 48. Yes the Ivies are better, but those rankings were against all commers. Conclusion. Jerome was awful, Franny was brilliant, Steve is mediocre even with the extraordinary big.
8. As I said in the spring. This is the year we learn from sure about Steve. Does the interesting collection of 2-star recruits include a Danley, an Ibby, a Zoller, a Grandieri? Can he mold the talent into a workable ensemble like Franny or John Chaney always did, or Jay Wright always does? (Best coach in Big Five History.)
9. If it don’t happen this year, with this group and the weak 2022 recruiting class, Penn will not have success for three to five more years until a new, better coach reestablishes real excellence after this twenty-year dead zone. Sure it bottomed with Jerome. But Steve has added only one lonely Ivy and Big Five Championship to the twenty bleak years. This year the program plays to big stakes. I can’t believe I am writing the same thing only seven years after that last awful year with Jerome, and after the miracle of the 2018 turnaround. Things looked so good at the beginning of 2019.
Remember the ‘BB’ days (Before Biksky) days when Penn won both fuball and bball most years. Of course, in my junior year, Penn finished last in both sports too. But Harter and the Digger were running B-ball and recruiting their butts off. The frosh beat the varsity in both 1968 and 1969. Now it is Amaker recruiting his butt off and Jones coaching his butt off. Don’t get me wrong. I really root for the thoroughly decent man running the program. I hope this is just a short hiatus before the next superstar emerges to start an extended run of excellence. It is just there is no evidence of that happy day yet.
Oh, one more thing. How is it that Mike McGlaughlin excels year after year despite the built-in advantages of H, Y, and P? Put differently, what are Harvard and Yale’s records before Jones and Amaker. The HYP advantages are nothing new. Okay, they didn’t care about hoops. They did care passionately about football. The three dominated Penn football before Bernt showed up. Then the poor backup school one 16 championships in 33 years. Coaching counts, just ask Alabama and Clemson fans.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-13-21 09:50 PM - Post#328383
In response to palestra38
The early ringer can cut both ways. You can learn to lose, so that is the worst case. But it also could be that our next couple of opponents are going to seem smaller and slower than they otherwise would because of what we’ve had to contend with the first two games.
We made some clear and effective adjustments from game one to game two. Hopefully that will continue. I’d actually like to see Wang starting over Monroe, mainly because I liked the way the starting 5 played in the first half against FSU.
I’m happy to have basketball back, and glad I got to see the Mason game live. I think we’ll figure it out.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1899
Reg: 11-29-04
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11-13-21 10:51 PM - Post#328385
In response to SomeGuy
Yeah, I hear you UPIA1968, but honestly all I wanted this season was to have fun and no stress about basketball. Williams is playing. Everyone is living their lives. Players like Dingle have sacrificed to stay with the program. Players like Wang and Washington (in addition to Williams) are finally healthy.
I'm just going to enjoy, whether the team is good or not.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-21 11:24 AM - Post#328393
In response to Penndemonium
It's just so far too early to give the "Get off my Lawn" old man talk radio gripe of UPIA that it's not worth even discussing at this point. It's really not surprising that the team has not gelled in time to play 2 very tough teams in money games on the road. The real argument is why a school as rich as the University of Pennsylvania has to take money games to start out a season for its basketball team or charge its season ticket holders a 14 game price for an 11 game season. But this team has a lot of talent and I am confident it will gel in time for the Ivy season.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8237
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-21 11:50 AM - Post#328395
In response to palestra38
I'm fine with the optimism about our talent 'gelling' before 2022, but the strength of these other Ivy teams in the early going troubles me, competitively speaking. They will improve as well.
I am happy the league is showing up strong so far though.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-21 11:24 PM - Post#328571
In response to Streamers
I'm fine with the optimism about our talent 'gelling' before 2022, but the strength of these other Ivy teams in the early going troubles me, competitively speaking. They will improve as well.
I am happy the league is showing up strong so far though.
Not so much today with Yale getting torched by Seton Hall and Princeton losing in 2 OTs to the team projected to occupy the Big Ten cellar.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-17-21 02:11 AM - Post#328689
In response to UPIA1968
Well, we’ve reached your predicted win total for the OOC season. I guess any wins from here on out are just gravy.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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11-17-21 10:21 AM - Post#328707
In response to SomeGuy
Beating two 300 ranked schools proves this is a good team? Pomeroy has Penn losing the every game until playing Brown in January.
I hope that I am wrong and so is Pomeroy. We will know more after playing Utah State.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-17-21 10:31 AM - Post#328708
In response to UPIA1968
You do realize that you only move up by beating teams ahead of you. Using Pomeroy like you do isn't exactly scientific.
But if you would like to bet with me that Penn will be winless until they play Brown, please name your stakes.
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4361
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-17-21 10:54 AM - Post#328714
In response to palestra38
Pomeroy is pretty useless for typical Ivy mid majors in mid November.
We are not 30 points better than Lafayette. The game had a similar feel of a run of the mill Ivy game. Lafayette can shoot the ball a lot better than they did and we will also grow as we get more minutes under our feet. It’s still very early.
There is a lot to be encouraged about though.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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11-17-21 11:31 AM - Post#328719
In response to AsiaSunset
A better way to think about it is that the KP error bars are wider this time of the season than later. There are fewer data points so precision is lacking.
That's different from saying the results from the first four games are meaningless. Of course they have meaning.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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George Mason
11-17-21 12:02 PM - Post#328733
In response to TheLine
There are other data points, but they are based on using last season's stats as an approximation (or even earlier, as with Penn).
Those eventually fade away with the accumulation of more data points from the current season.
Edited by penn nation on 11-17-21 12:03 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-17-21 12:09 PM - Post#328734
In response to penn nation
The Pomeroy projections also don’t include any Myrtle Beach games beyond USU, because they have no idea who we’d be playing on Friday or Sunday.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3775
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-17-21 05:00 PM - Post#328764
In response to Chip Bayers
I can't imagine previous season data is factored into this season's projections for ivies. That would just be dumb.
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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11-17-21 08:56 PM - Post#328795
In response to Silver Maple
George Mason leading 33-32 at #20 ranked Maryland at halftime
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welcometothejungle
Masters Student
Posts: 788
Age: 27
Reg: 07-31-19
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11-17-21 10:01 PM - Post#328817
In response to welcometothejungle
George Mason wins at Maryland
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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11-17-21 10:02 PM - Post#328818
In response to welcometothejungle
Well, that's one loss which won't seem so bad now.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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George Mason
11-18-21 12:42 AM - Post#328841
In response to penn nation
Well, that's one loss which won't seem so bad now.
Early to mid-November college basketball man.
And remaining COVID protocols and the wide-opening of the.transfer portal is only making it more random.
Edited by Chip Bayers on 11-18-21 12:42 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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