Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 4000
Reg: 11-23-04
|
03-05-06 05:01 PM - Post#16930
Kevin MacNamara, the Providence Journal's lead College Basketball writter, and a very knowlegable one, makes some interesting observations in Sunday's "Buzzer Beaters".
http://www.projo.com/sports/kevinmcnamara/projo_20060305_05kmnotes.334184c.html
While I agree with his points, I don't believe these are the only factors. I would argue that the continued upward preasure on the AI is, at least, equally to blame for the current mess. In fact, I believe it may have magnified the oft-discussed existing imblance in the league. While Princeton seems to have made some progress in joining the "little 6", Penn seems to continue to go it's own way. Surely Ivy fans deserve to have something more to look forward to than more speculation on whether Penn deserves a 14th of 15th seed. If our Presidents are going to persist in their "let the rest of the world be damned" attitude, then we should encourage Penn to back up a little to make the league more ballanced. It seems to me that this could quite easily be accomplished by bumping up Penn's AI a notch or two.
|
Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-05-06 06:57 PM - Post#16931
In response to Old Bear
Is this supposed to be a joke? You need to add a smiley face.
|
Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-05-06 07:32 PM - Post#16932
In response to Old Bear
Why not just yell "Fire!" in a crowded theater?
I can't tell if you're trying to fuel the flames with this notion or are serious but I'll try to answer (and the ProJo site wouldn't let me register so I'm not sure of McNamara's points) ...
1. How would it be in keeping with the Ivy ideal to strive for excellence to say that the only way we can compete is to make our best team worse?
2. What Ivy fans? Penn and Princeton are the only two Ivy schools with actual basketball fans. If you try to make Penn worse and thus diminish the quality of the product further do you think more people will come out to the games? How many Brown students were at the game last night for senior night? 50? 100?
3. When you say that Penn "continues to go its own way" are you implying something other than Penn has a consistent coaching situation, the best arena, the best schedule, the best Ivy city for college basketball and inarguably the best recent tradition? The way that Penn continues to go is to strive to be a competitive national team even with all the ridiculous roadblocks the League throws in its way to the benefit of no one - including, obviously, the other teams in the League.
4. Since Penn has one of the largest student bodies in the League, would it really be fair to bump up Penn's Academic Index when it has so many more spots to fill and, as we all have heard repeatedly from H-Y-P chants, is already losing the cream of the academic crop to H-Y-P.
5. Surely Ivy fans deserve to have something more to look forward to than more speculation as to whether Penn or occasionally Princeton is going to be in the play-in game - which is what the speculation will be if you try to bring Penn back to the pack.
6. Ever since Penn's Final Four team, the Ivies have repeatedly raised the AI as the schools have gotten increasingly more costly. The League has gotten no more competitive. Many of us have said repeatedly that the only real way to make the League more competitive is to improve the financial aid packages across the board, but the "purists" don't want to hear it. Others think that will just make the Ps better.
They're almost assuredly right. But you're dealing with basic mathematics, which Ivy grads should be able to understand.
Let's say, for argument's sake, every DI basketball team brings in 3 recruits a year, that's approximately 1,000 kids across the country for the 330-plus teams. Now because of academics, lets say 800 of those kids are eliminated from Ivy recruiting contention and of the 200 academically qualified players, 10 are in the top 200, 30 are in the next 300 and the remaining 160 are in the 501-1000 group.
If you give competitive financial aid packages (you can call them scholarships if you wish) you have more Top 200 and Top 500 kids willing to consider the Ivies and the Ps can't get all of them. Some of them will filter down and make the other teams more competitive with their intra-state rivals, Patriot League foes and occasional major conference matchups. Raising the overall level of play in the League will get the League winner a better NCAA seed and will get League losers a chance for NIT bids and more exposure which will make the League more attractive and the cycle will feed on itself.
The way the Ivies do it now, of the 200 or so kids who may be able to get in, 45 of the Top 50 automatically take a scholarship. Then the rest of the League fights over the remaining 5 and Penn usually gets two of them, Princeton gets one and the other six teams split the remaining two then battle over the twenty of the remaining 150 players, who've decided they want to or can afford to go Ivy.
That math basically doesn't change. Maybe it's 100 instead of 200 academically eligible players but the archaic financial aid rules knock 75 percent of them out of the picture. So everyone fights over a small pool and six of the schools have inherent disadvantages when fishing in that small pool.
The only sensible solution, therefore, is to enlarge the pool. And since we all value education and do not want our teams to resemble many of the major conference programs whose athletes take joke course and still don't graduate, the only way to enlarge the pool is to make the Ivies a viable financial choice for a greater number of the academically-eligible athletes.
If you follow your suggestion and continue to shrink the pool (further raise the AI and costs) the odds are that Penn and Princeton will merely cherry-pick the players who are currently your top recruits and you will be forced down another tier and then that cycle will perpetuate itself and in another decade we'll all be longing for an opportunity to play in the play-in game.
|
AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4361
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-05-06 08:17 PM - Post#16933
In response to Howard Gensler
I think it's mostly financial, partly the lack of TV exposure, but without 1 or 2 it's a sense that it's not where real D1 college bb is being played. We remain a bit of a novelty to most and not the first choice for most of the top 150 hs ball players in the country, including the few who qualify academically. So - you hope to get a few good players, maybe steal a late bloomer and put 5 guys out on the floor who play smart and play good team basketball. For Penn we have advantages - the Big 5, the Palestra and a tradition. We share that tradition with Princeton.
AI will always be a factor, but AI is a computation built off the average of the school's last entering freshman class. It's not a number that can be arbitrarily raised sport to sport to achieve equality. Besides - Old Bear should recognize that as it stands today Brown has the lowest AI in the league with the exception of Cornell. Neither school has been able to leverage that advantage to threaten the Penn/Princeton run in bb, although both have other very successful Ivy sports programs.
|
SFlaQuaker
Postdoc
Posts: 2427
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-05-06 08:18 PM - Post#16934
In response to AsiaSunset
Being in Philly helps too, where you can get local kids like Zoller and Grandieri (and quality Jersey kids too).
|
Big R&B Truth
Masters Student
Posts: 427
Loc: Back Waters of New Englan...
Reg: 11-23-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 02:17 AM - Post#16935
In response to Old Bear
I think the real solution is for the Ivy League to cease functioning as a basketball league. Penn and Princeton should be allowed to go off and join a more competitive league. The rest of the Ivies could join up with schools like Lafayette (which despite what the article says does not give out basketball scholarships), Army and Navy. The Ivy League could continue to exist for football, lacrosse, fencing etc. This way everyone gets what they want. Penn and Princeton can have their nationally competitive teams yet remain Ivy League schools. The other 6 can continue to play basketball on their current level and actually get a chance to win their league. This is a win-win situation for everyone.
|
foehi
Masters Student
Posts: 531
Reg: 12-22-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 12:09 PM - Post#16936
In response to AsiaSunset
Does what little TV money there is e.g. Penn-Duke, Princeton-Stanford this season accrue to the schools or does it go to the League for redistribution a la the NFL? This would exclude the small YES money which clearly is a League contract.
|
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3779
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 12:59 PM - Post#16937
In response to foehi
I'm pretty it's shared equally, as is the take from the NCAA tournament. Which begs the question: would the non-p's be more motivated to put a decent team on the floor if the money were not shared?
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 05:33 PM - Post#16938
In response to Silver Maple
I'm tired of hearing this "motivated to put a decent team on the floor" stuff. Seriously. It's just such a dismissive and simplistic comment that shows little comprehension of the inherent differences between the programs and the long-standing league policies that make such gaps in talent level and program quality permanent.
I know it's easier to pretend like it's completely those programs' faults, but it really is more complicated than that.
|
Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 05:58 PM - Post#16939
In response to mrjames
What are some of the League policies you refer to? And if you are applying permanence to the problems don't you think those problems should be addressed?
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 06:18 PM - Post#16940
In response to Howard Gensler
AI, travel partners/back-to-back weekend games, no conference tournament
-mrjames
|
AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4361
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 07:39 PM - Post#16941
In response to Silver Maple
10% of net to each of the 7 teams that didn't make the tourney. The rest to Penn as per rules in the Ivy Policy Manual.
|
Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 07:42 PM - Post#16942
In response to mrjames
I don't understand. Are you arguing that Brown and Cornell's current AI advantage over Harvard and Princeton is what's making the situation "permanent"?
And how does a conference tournament raise the league's overall quality of play? If you followed Old Bear's suggestion and "raised" the AI in some magic way that would eliminate Penn's non-academic advantages (as detailed by Howard), I guess league games might more competitive, but your imaginary Ivy tourney winner would be in the play-in game every year.
|
AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4361
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 07:53 PM - Post#16943
In response to Silver Maple
Actually that split is of the gross revenues and occurs after the Ivy Fund takes its 5% off the top to cover admin costs.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 08:45 PM - Post#16944
In response to Chip Bayers
It's obviously a combination of all three factors, each of which affects different schools in different ways.
And then you have to throw in the school specific factors that each institution can control.
I think you're missing the point, if you think that I'm arguing that this is completely a league imposed problem. What I'm saying is that there are factors which are controlled by the league that contribute to the permanence of the P's dominance. There are also factors that are individual institution based, such as financial aid, staffing, money spent on the program, help in recruiting and admissions and so on.
My argument is that it's neither helpful nor accurate to pretend like this is only the fault of the six non-P institutions. On the flip side, I don't think the argument can or should be made that it's all the league's fault either. Rather, it's an interplay of the two. But I'm just tired of seeing the passing shots that seem to indicate that this is all a school-specific problem.
After my thesis is done, I'll go back to the data that I have, and I'll try to demonstrate what I mean.
|
Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 09:19 PM - Post#16945
In response to mrjames
Quote:
AI, travel partners/back-to-back weekend games, no conference tournament.
1. The AI: The difference between the schools is quite minimal and Penn does not get the most advantage. If the AI were a factor, why does Princeton consistently beat Harvard? Why is Harvard so competitive in football? One would think that an AI disdvantage would be a much bigger problem in football where you need so many players.
2. Travel partners: Maybe we could seed the travel partners each year - that Penn/Dartmouth trip would really be a blast as would Cornell/Harvard. The travel partners issue is brought up each year because it's theoretically harder for the bottom six to always play the Ps back-to-back. Even if that's true, it doesn't change the fact that it wouldn't matter: Only once in the past decade, I believe has a non-P (Dartmouth) gone 10-0 against the non-Ps. They finished 10-4.
This year, for instance, if you take the Ps out of the League, the standings go like this: Cornell 7-3, Yale 7-3, Brown 5-5, Harvard 5-5, Dartmouth 4-6, Columbia 2-8. Without the Ps, the League has parity at a fairly low level. The travel partnering of the Ps is irrelevant because the bottom six can't sweep the other weekends. Only Harvard swept its travel partner this season and it meant nothing. As as has also been demonstrated in the past, when one of the Ps has been weaker, it's done virtually nothing to help the non-Ps success with the other P.
2A. Back-to-back weekend games: I have no idea how this gives an advantage to the Ps since the Ps traditionally play their starters the most minutes under the most pressure and should theoretically be hurt the most by playing two games in 26 hours. I could argue that if you gave the Ps a day off between games and played Friday and Sunday, they would almost never lose a road game.
3. No conference tournament. We've argued this for years and there is not one shred of evidence that this would do anything to make the weaker teams stronger as it has not made any of the weaker teams stronger in the Patriot, the MEAC or any of the other lower-tier D1 conferences. It would occasionally give a weak Ivy team a chance to catch lightning in a bottle and be a 16 seed in the NCAA tournament, but that's it. What's far more likely is that until the non-Ps got better and more competitive, it would just give the Ps a few more wins and a chance to have another game on a Thursday at noon on ESPN2.
Of the three major rankings: In the RPI, there are 218 spots separating Penn and No. 8 Dartmouth and 119 spots between Penn and No. 2 Cornell. In the Sagarins it's 225 top to bottom and 158 from No. 1 to No. 2. In the Pomeroys it's 201 and 147. I believe that over the past 10 seasons, Penn's WORST RPI ranking was higher than any non-P's AVERAGE RPI ranking. That's a League that would be improved by a tournament?
If you want the Ivy League to be more competitive in basketball you have two choices: Change the financial aid rules or kick Penn out.
|
SFlaQuaker
Postdoc
Posts: 2427
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 09:24 PM - Post#16946
In response to Howard Gensler
Only "argument": In 2003, Brown went 12-2 with the only losses coming against 14-0 Penn.
|
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3779
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-06-06 11:31 PM - Post#16947
In response to mrjames
You've misinterpreted me, or perhaps I was unclear. I really don't think it's entirely the non-P's fault that they suck so bad. Penn and Princeton do have some huge inherant advantages that would make it difficult (although not impossible) for the others to overcome. However, I really don't think you can deny that part of the reason these schools are unable to improve their men's basketball teams is because they don't see it as being in their interest to do so (I mean, honestly--what do these institutions, as a whole, have to gain by winning a few more men's basketball games?)
One other thing--if the presidents of other six REALLY want to improve the overall quality of league play, they obviously have the votes to do whatever they want. They've made no move whatsoever to do so. As far as I know, it's never even been discussed.
|
Condor
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-07-06 12:59 AM - Post#16948
In response to mrjames
Really? Is it that complicated? Harvard is:
#1 Academics
#1 Elite school branding
#1 Money
Venue: Boston, MA (also home to Boston College, Northeastern, and BU)
How difficult should it be for Harvard to field a good BB team with those assets? Add this to you thesis. First, it starts with school commitment to the program. Second, Harvard should lead the cause for limited scholarships. Third, play a tougher non-league schedule. Fourth, as everything falls into place, get more TV exposure.
OTOH, you could just say that the world is too complicated.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: The State of Ivy Basketball
03-07-06 02:23 AM - Post#16949
In response to Condor
I should have been more clear. My thesis is on a completely unrelated topic (market efficiency). I just need to complete it before I can take on other projects.
I have datasets on Ivy athletics that I've made on the side for other projects that pertain to a lot of these issues. That isn't to say that Ivy League athletics wouldn't have been a much, much more interesting thesis topic than the one I'm currently slogging through.
|
