JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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12-17-22 05:37 PM - Post#348229
Only a few out of conference games left before the Ivies – the early relative strength of the teams has played out pretty much as expected. Princeton with five seniors is playing very well but they and the Ivies are missing Abby Meyers. Columbia with seven seniors has picked up from their NIT run and played winning basketball.
Tier I: - Likely Finish 1-3
Columbia (10-2 – 25 NET – Projected RPI 31)
Princeton (7-3 – 45 NET – Projected RPI 27)
Can Columbia knock off Princeton and end the Tigers-45 game winning streak that goes back three seasons? Columbia has played very well against tough out of conference competition, but after three loses to Princeton last season and having to replace seven players next season, this season is all about knocking off the Tigers and going dancing.
2 Key Dates:
Fri 6 Jan: Columbia @ Princeton
Sat 4 Feb: Princeton @ Columbia
If both teams have 12+ Ivy wins, the second-place team will likely have a legitimate shot to make the NCAAs
Tier II: Likely finish 2-5
Harvard (8-5 – 128 NET – Projected RPI 72)
Penn (7-6 – 112 NET – Projected RPI 107)
Yale (7-7 – 169 NET – Projected RPI 124)
Tiebreakers will matter – head-to-head, who has beaten a higher seed, NET ranking
Last year, none of these three teams beat Columbia or Princeton and only one combined lost to Brown, Cornell or Dartmouth. Likely one, perhaps two NIT bids here, and perhaps bids to an other tournament
Key for these teams will be how the evolve over the exam break. A lot of coaching will happen before the first Ivy game. Having one or two more players being able to step up or no one advancing could be the difference between second or fifth.
6 Key dates:
Sat 7 Jan: Yale @ Harvard
Sat 21 Jan: Yale @ Penn
Sat 28 Jan: Penn @ Harvard
Fri 3 Feb: Harvard @ Yale
Sat 11 Feb: Harvard @ Penn
Fri 17 Feb: Penn @ Yale
Tier 3: Likely Finish 6-8
Brown (8-4 – 245 NET – Projected RPI 163)
Cornell (6-5 – 218 NET – Projected RPI 184)
Dartmouth (3-10 – 336 NET – Projected RPI 258)
Last year, only Cornell beat any of the top five (Harvard). Likely could see similar strugles again this season, but off nights happen / some players go unconscious from the field. But clearly any win against a Tier II team will mean that Tier II team will have Ivy Tiebreaker concerns. Hard to see any of these three making the top four - Brown the most likey of the three to make some noise.
Edited by JDP on 12-17-22 05:45 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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WBB Thoughts as Out Of Conference winds down
01-03-23 12:13 AM - Post#348799
In response to JDP
Week 1 went pretty much to scratch … Harvard’s win was big as Princeton has been so invincible, but not a complete surprise as the Crimson are a very talented team. Harvard now holds a very key tiebreaker, one which may be the difference between 1st or 2nd place or 3rd and 4th place.
The Tiger’s loss does raise the stakes for Friday’s Columbia at Princeton contest … 2015-16 was age last time Princeton stared 0-2 in the league and it would only be the third time in 20 seasons. Columbia can take a two game lead over Princeton … or still have to prove they are good enough to beat the Tigers and be down a tiebreaker to the Crimson.
Edited by JDP on 01-03-23 12:15 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: WBB Thoughts as Out Of Conference winds down
01-03-23 02:06 AM - Post#348802
In response to JDP
The fight for the final spot in the Ivy tournament figures to be quite interesting, too.
Without Emsbo Yale looks like flawed unit and there to be had by Penn.
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Albert08
Masters Student
Posts: 573
Reg: 08-21-10
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Re: WBB Thoughts as Out Of Conference winds down
01-03-23 03:38 PM - Post#348824
In response to JDP
Correction - in 2015-16 Princeton did not start 0-2 in the Ivy League. They lost the first game to Penn (eventual Champs) 50-48, then won 12 in a row, then they lost the last game, again to Penn, 62-60, ending 12-2. They got an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.
This year's team, however, faces a problem similar to the one that team faced: while bringing back most of your starters and role players, how do you replace the one player who really drove the prior year's team's success? In 2015-16 it was Blake Dietrick, in 2022-23, it's Abby Meyers. Princeton obviously is not invincible this year, having already lost to Harvard, and they may struggle in some League games because overall the League's other teams are better than they were in 2015-16, when Princeton pretty much dominated all other teams not named "Penn.".
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-07-23 12:04 AM - Post#349067
In response to Albert08
Agreed - it was 16-17, should not look at record books on an iPhone ... agree even more with the changeover from Blake Dietrick and Abby Meyers - very hard to replace all time greats
Game 2 - Columbia - Princeton Round 1 certainly lived up to expectations and then some ... the rest of the schedule went as expected.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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01-07-23 01:52 AM - Post#349073
In response to JDP
What's interesting is how's Meyers has seemed to diminish not only the team as a whole (no surprise there) but the other individual players. Stone and Cunningham, in particular, seem less impactful this year than last.
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Albert08
Masters Student
Posts: 573
Reg: 08-21-10
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01-07-23 10:58 AM - Post#349080
In response to CM
It's sort of the old cliche about great players: they make everyone else around them better. How? partly by drawing the focus of the other team's defense onto them, giving the other players time and space to make shots, get rebounds, find open players, etc. I remember one inbounds play in the 2nd Columbia-Princeton game at Levien: before the entry pass, Abby sprinted from one side to the other, and by the time she got there, 3 Columbia defenders were covering her, leaving Chen wide open in the lane for a layup.
Opposing defenses don't have to worry about her this year, and they're making it more difficult for Cunningham, Stone and the others to score.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-08-23 07:36 AM - Post#349193
In response to Albert08
Week 3 - 1/5 of the season done
Upset Weekend
Yale winning in OT at Harvard
Penn beating Columbia at home
Five teams vying for four spots - seeding & fourth spot will likely comedown to who has the wins against a higher seeds
Columbia - win over Princeton - loss to Penn
Harvard - win over Princeton - loss to Yale
Penn - win over Columbia
Princeton - loss to Columbia and Harvard
Yale - win over Harvard - loss to Columbia
The next tiebreaker is NET ratings … those have not been update since 6 Jan yet - and there will be som shuffling
Columbia 29
Princeton 58
Harvard 82
Penn 111
Yale 204
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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WBB Thoughts as Out Of Conference winds down
01-14-23 10:56 PM - Post#349589
In response to JDP
Game 4
Games went as expected - all home teams won - still 5 teams competing for four spots.
Columbia should go 6-1 to start - as they had the hardest start going 3-1 vs the main pack with two quality away wins ... which there likely gives Penn the early lead in tiebreaker order.
Home losses increase the pressure - and Harvard, Princeton & Yale all have a home loss ... 9 wins is likely needed to make the tournament and likely with a tiebreaker
Columbia - wins over Harvard (H), Princeton (A), Yale (A) - loss to Penn (A)
Harvard - win over Princeton (H) - loss to Columbia (A) & Yale (H)
Penn - win over Columbia (H)
Princeton - loss to Columbia (H) and Harvard (A)
Yale - win over Harvard (A) - loss to Columbia (H)
The next tiebreaker is NET ratings … as of 13 Jan
Columbia 35 from 29
Princeton 55 from 58
Harvard 86 from 82
Penn 98 from 111
Yale 179 from 204
Edited by JDP on 01-14-23 10:57 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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WBB Thoughts as Out Of Conference winds down
01-16-23 10:38 PM - Post#349742
In response to JDP
Gane 5
Favorites won as expected - even though was rooting for a Penn Win.
Next two weeks will see three key matchups and if the home team can hold court ... can Yale get an another away win?
Yale @ Penn
Penn @ Harvard & Yale @ Princeton
Tiebreaker standing:
Columbia - wins over Harvard (H), Princeton (A), Yale (A) - loss to Penn (A)
Harvard - win over Princeton (H) - loss to Columbia (A) & Yale (H)
Penn - win over Columbia (H) - loss to Princeton (A)
Princeton - win over Penn (H) - loss to Columbia (H) and Harvard (A)
Yale - win over Harvard (A) - loss to Columbia (H)
Edited by JDP on 01-16-23 10:48 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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WBB Thoughts as Out Of Conference winds down
01-21-23 05:09 PM - Post#349930
In response to JDP
Game 6
Favorites won as expected
Last two key matchups of the first half next week: Penn @ Harvard & Yale @ Princeton
Tiebreaker standings
The way the season is shaping up - away wins are huge and home losses need to be made up somewhere along the way
Away Wins: Columbia (2), Yale (1) - Rest (0)
Home Losses: Harvard (1), Princeton (1), Yale (1) - Rest (0)
Columbia - wins over Harvard (H), Princeton (A) & Yale (A) - loss to Penn (A)
Harvard - wins over Princeton (H) - losses to Columbia (A) & Yale (H)
Penn - wins over Columbia (H) & Yale (H) - loss to Princeton (A)
Princeton - win over Penn (H) - losses to Columbia (H) & Harvard (A)
Yale - win over Harvard (A) - losses to Columbia (H) & Penn (A)
Edited by JDP on 01-21-23 05:09 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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