JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-28-23 08:02 PM - Post#350385
Game 7 – Half way done
I believe any of the top four teams could finish 1st ... and it feels that Harvard or Penn are the only ones that could lose out to Yale - if Yale can hold home court ... but from the first seven games, the loss of Emsbo clearly has impacted the Eli's fortunes.
1. Columbia - playing dominantly, could run the table - likely 1 or 2
2. Harvard (wins over Penn & Princeton) - great guard play - could be 1 through 5
3. Princeton (win over Penn) - improved play over 2nd half of 1st seven games ... likely 1 through 3
4. Penn - has the highest vol going forward - how will they play vs. Harvard and Princeton at home where the Quakers have been dominant - can they win at Columbia and Yale and complete the sweeps .. could be 1 to 5
5. Yale - 3 of their 4 key games are at home ... and other than Columbia, they are the only team with a road win vs. the top 5 - could be 3 to 5.
It soon will become very clear - Next weekend will go a long way in deciding Ivy Madness and seedings as all 5 teams will engage ...
Friday:
Harvard at Yale: Can Harvard avenge their only home loss – Yale’s only chance for a sweep.
Penn at Columbia: Can Columbia avenge their only loss, and not look ahead to Princeton?
Saturday
Princeton at Columbia: Princeton needs the win for a chance at the regular season Ivy Title and a #1 seed.
Other Key Dates - by mid Feb, teams fates will be well on their way being decided:
Sat 11 Feb: Harvard @ Penn
Sat 11 Feb: Yale @ Columbia
Fri 17 Feb: Columbia @ Harvard
Fri 17 Feb: Penn @ Yale
Sat 18 Feb: Princeton @ Yale
Fri 24 Feb: Harvard @ Princeton
Fri 3 Mar: Princeton @ Penn
Tiebreaker standings
Away Wins: Columbia (2), Yale (1) - Rest (0)
Home Losses: Harvard (1), Princeton (1), Yale (1) - Rest (0)
Columbia - wins over Harvard (H), Princeton (A) & Yale (A) - loss to Penn (A)
Harvard - wins over Penn (H) & Princeton (H) - losses to Columbia (A) & Yale (H)
Penn - wins over Columbia (H) & Yale (H) - losses to Harvard (A) & Princeton (A)
Princeton - wins over Penn (H) & Yale (H) - losses to Columbia (H) & Harvard (A)
Yale - win over Harvard (A) - losses to Columbia (H), Penn (A) & Princeton (A)
Edited by JDP on 01-28-23 08:07 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-03-23 11:57 PM - Post#350746
In response to JDP
Game 8 – All favorites won
Biggest game in Columbia women’s basketball history tomorrow night as Princeton comes to town.
Tiebreaker standings
Away Wins: Columbia (2), Harvard (1), Yale (1) - Rest (0)
Home Losses: Harvard (1), Princeton (1), Yale (2) - Rest (0)
Columbia - wins over Harvard (H), Penn (H), Princeton (A) & Yale (A) - loss to Penn (A)
Harvard - wins over Penn (H), Princeton (H), Yale (A) - losses to Columbia (A) & Yale (H)
Penn - wins over Columbia (H) & Yale (H) - losses to Columbia (A), Harvard (A) & Princeton (A)
Princeton - wins over Penn (H) & Yale (H) - losses to Columbia (H) & Harvard (A)
Yale - win over Harvard (A) - losses to Columbia (H), Harvard (A), Penn (A) & Princeton (A)
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
02-05-23 11:27 AM - Post#350915
In response to JDP
Three-way tie for first – each team controls its own destiny – win out and you are Ivy Champ – there could also be at least co-champs if Columbia & Princeton both win out
Dartmouth was officially eliminated this weekend - Brown and Cornell still have mathematical hope …
Penn and Yale are in the race for the fourth participant in the tournament:
• The clearest answer comes if Penn sweeps Yale in two weeks. Looking at the remaining schedule If Penn beats Yale and then can get 2 wins in their other 4 – so 9 Ivy wins –Yale would need 10, which is mathematically impossible
• If Penn & Yale split both teams likely to get to at least 8 wins, the answer likely goes to tiebreakers – who beat the higher seed – Penn has a win over Columbia – Yale a win over Harvard – or then NET ranking, where Penn has the advantage. Does either team get an extra win vs. the top 3? Penn has Harvard and Princeton at home while Yale is at Columbia and Princeton
Can one of the top 3 realistically (mathematically they can) lose their 2 game advantage over Yale? Assuming Yale gets to 10-4 – and everyone beats Brown, Cornell and Dartmouth
So
Columbia 10-3 – with just Harvard to play
Harvard 9-2 – with Columbia, Penn & Princeton to play
Princeton 9-3 with Harvard & Penn to play
Penn 8-4 with Harvard & Princeton to play
• I don’t think Yale can catch Columbia on NET Raking
• I believe here are some paths where Harvard or Princeton could end up 5th with Penn and Yale getting in.
• 5 way 10-4 would be satisfying – everyone gets a banner – Yale likely loses out on NET Ranking
Edited by JDP on 02-05-23 11:36 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
02-12-23 12:10 PM - Post#351449
In response to JDP
Weekend went as expected …
Columbia – Princeton – Harvard – Penn all control their destiny.
If Columbia (who is at Harvard next Friday) and Princeton (who is at Yale next Saturday, home to Harvard in two Saturday’s and at Penn to end the season) win out (the Lions have the far easier schedule for a sweep) – it will come down to the how the Crimson & Quakers and perhaps Eli finish … with the Penn at Yale game next Friday being critical …If Penn is alone in 3rd – likely advantage Princeton – if Harvard is alone in 3rd or the Crimson and Quakers are tied for 3rd – likely advantage Columbia
In the race for 3rd: Harvard has Columbia at home and Princeton on the road. Penn is at Yale and home to Princeton. Both are at Cornell. Penn is at Dartmouth where Harvard is home to Dartmouth. Realtime RPI has Harvard 3-1 (beating Columbia- Losing to Princeton who wins the league) and Penn 2-2 (losing at Yale and home to Princeton). But I would lean towards the “underdog” Lions and Quakers next Friday.
Yale is two games behind – but still alive –their biggest obstacle is being 100 point behind on Net Ranking and that Penn & Princeton have wins over the Lions and they were swept – so if they are tied with a team, very hard to get the tiebreaker – the Elis really need Princeton to finish a game ahead of Columbia.
• If Yale wins out getting to 9 wins and everyone beats Brown, Cornell & Dartmouth – I do not believe Yale wins any of the potential 9-5 tiebreaker scenarios … so either Columbia or Princeton need to get swept or Harvard and/or Penn have to go 1-3
• If Harvard and/or Penn are swept than Yale can go 3-1 and get in with 8 wins
• If Harvard and/or Penn are swept and Yale goes 2-2, those two wins need to be Penn & Princeton - to beat out Penn - Princeton needs to finish ahead of Columbia ... to beat out Harvard, Harvard needs to be swept by Columbia
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
02-13-23 12:52 AM - Post#351517
In response to JDP
As I think about it, there is only one path where Yale beats Penn in tiebreakers with both tied at 9-5 … Penn only beats Brown & Dartmouth, Columbia loses one more game that Princeton – which is at least 2, as Yale has to beat Princeton to get to 9 wins – so Princeton is the sole #1 team - And Yale is 1-1 vs Princeton, Penn is 0-2 in this path.
If Columbia & Harvard tie for 1st place – Penn has tiebreaker 2-2 vs 1-3
If Harvard & Princeton tie for 1st place – Yale has tiebreaker 2-2 vs 1-3 if Penn does not beat Princeton
If Columbia, Harvard & Princeton tie for 1st place – Penn has NET tiebreaker - both teams would be 2-4
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 429
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
02-13-23 06:31 AM - Post#351520
In response to JDP
My money would be on Yale dropping at least one of the Cornell/Brown games. As well, the sleeper massive upset alert is Dartmouth hosting Penn. Classic trap game.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-13-23 12:24 PM - Post#351532
In response to CM
The Ivy League schedule traditionally had a lot of trap games … long bus ride after a Friday night game – Columbia & Cornell, Dartmouth & Harvard … having to play the Ps back to back is hard to bring A games both nights, not really a trap. But now that the schedule has more single game weekends than back-to-back games (3) … Far fewer upsets from trap games are filtering in – especially where a team not competing for a Ivy Madness birth beats a team in the mix.
For the women, in the past two seasons, only one game stands out where a bottom three team has beaten a top 5 team. Harvard lost at Cornell on a back-to-back in 2022. Columbia losing at Penn after a critical OT win at Princeton may be a trap game by some – but as only 1 game separate 1st and 2nd, one could debate how to classify that game. But both games in question are Saturday night games on the road after a Friday game.
This weekend only two games really fall into the observed pattern – bottom three team after an important Friday game:
Columbia at Dartmouth
Penn at Brown
I would not include Princeton at Yale in the mix or Cornell at Harvard.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
02-18-23 07:27 AM - Post#351868
In response to JDP
Game 11:
Three are in Columbia – Penn & Princeton … Harvard is one win or one Yale lose to earn the fourth ticket
Seeding still to come
The Lions & Tigers are tied for 1st – slight advantage for Columbia to end up with a better record than Princeton.
• Columbia (8-2) has the easiest schedule remaining: at Dartmouth – at Brown – Cornell
• Princeton (8-2) has a mini Ivy tournament: at Yale – Harvard – at Penn
Many would expect the Lions & Tigers to win out and finished tied – so tiebreakers vs. lower finishers & then NET Ratings
Penn has a 1 game lead on Harvard for 3rd place … assuming both teams lose to Princeton:
• If Penn maintains the 1 game lead: #1 Princeton vs. #4 Harvard & #2 Columbia vs. #3 Penn
• If Penn & Harvard tie for third: #1 Columbia vs. #4 Penn & #2 Princeton vs. #3 Harvard - Lions & Tigers are both 3-1 vs. 3rd place – so we go to NET Rankings where Columbia is 14 spots higher 36 vs. 50 …not sure Princeton’s harder schedule can catch them up. The Quakers & Crimson also go to NET Rankings – Crimson advantage 84 vs. 106
• If Harvard has the better record than Penn: #1 Columbia vs. #4 Penn & #2 Princeton vs. #3 Harvard
If Columbia & Princeton do not sweep – then we become very path dependent
Edited by JDP on 02-18-23 07:28 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-18-23 09:21 PM - Post#351994
In response to JDP
The four tournament teams are set - just seedings left to determine.
Assuming Columbia & Princeton win out – both will be 3-1 vs Penn & Harvard who are likely to end up tied for third. The Lions are rooting for Penn not to finish alone in third, as that would give the Tigers a tiebreaker advantage and Princeton is rooting for Harvard not to finish alone in third, as that would give the Columbia a tiebreaker advantage
So most likely outcome
1. Columbia – on better NET Rating than Princeton
2. Princeton – on lower NET Rating than Columbia
3. Penn - as they swept fifth place Yale
4. Harvard – as they split with fifth place Yale
If Harvard beats Princeton and Penn does not:
1. Columbia
2. Princeton
3. Harvard
4. Penn
If Penn beats Princeton and Harvard does not:
1. Columbia
2. Princeton
3. Penn
4. Harvard
If Harvard & Penn both beat Dartmouth & Princeton – so 3 way second place tie at 10-4
1. Columbia
2. Harvard – as they are 3-1 vs. P&P
3. Penn – as they are 2-2 vs. H&P
4. Princeton as they are 1-3 vs P&P
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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02-18-23 11:09 PM - Post#352033
In response to JDP
Great post, JDP... this is helpful.
If I'm reading this right... if Columbia wins out, the only way for Princeton to get the #1 seed is if:
- Princeton beats Harvard & Penn
- Penn beats Dartmouth
- Dartmouth beats Harvard
That would give the tie-breaker to Princeton (better record vs 3rd place Penn).
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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02-18-23 11:13 PM - Post#352035
In response to PeteD
The first two will probably happen.
The third outcome seems highly unlikely.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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02-18-23 11:50 PM - Post#352041
In response to cc66
For sure... what are the chances that Dartmouth can defeat Harvard on the road? Has to be less than 10%, right?
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
02-19-23 02:17 PM - Post#352122
In response to PeteD
If Columbia & Princeton are tied, as the Lions & Tigers Princeton have split, the tiebreaker will look at who is next in the standings
If it's Harvard alone in 3rd: Columbia is 2-0 and Princeton is 0-1 ... so advantage Columbia regardless of what happens next two weekends
If it's Penn alone in 3rd: Columbia is 1-1 and Princeton is 1-0 ...so at worst tied ... If Princeton is 2-0, advantage Tigers ... if Princeton is 1-1, then it will go to the next spot, Harvard, advantage Columbia
If its Harvard & Penn tied: Columbia is 3-1 and Princeton is 1-1. Princeton needs the sweep to get to 3-1. At which point they are both 8-0 vs the rest of the league - so we are off to NET Rankings - current advantage Columbia
Edited by JDP on 02-19-23 02:28 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
02-19-23 06:56 PM - Post#352142
In response to JDP
Just noticing how close the NET rankings have become:
Just a very current slight advantage Columbia 35 vs 39 Princeton ...
So if Princeton does sweep Harvard (80) and Penn (109), Columbia better be blowing out Brown (236) & Cornell (254) to stay ahead.
Edited by JDP on 02-19-23 06:57 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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02-19-23 09:17 PM - Post#352162
In response to JDP
I noticed that too... Princeton moved up from 44 to 39 after dominating wins at Brown (236) and Yale (211).
Mississippi St dropped from 39 to 44 after a 13-point loss at Missouri (54). That seems like a big drop, but somewhat understandable.
But how does Gonzaga go from 38 to 43 after wins at home vs Pacific (161) by 11 and St Mary's (187) by 14?
If Gonzaga can drop 5 spots after winning by double digits, then you're onto something... Columbia cannot afford a close game vs Brown or Cornell in the final two if they want to stay ahead of Princeton in the NET rankings.
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ToothlessTiger
Senior
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Age: 76
Reg: 03-28-15
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02-20-23 01:38 PM - Post#352202
In response to PeteD
Seeding not really that important if Columbia and Princeton are 1 and 2.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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02-20-23 09:15 PM - Post#352232
In response to ToothlessTiger
In terms of winning the tournament, I agree, it doesn’t mean much.
But you can bet that it’s important to Griffith and her players. Winning the regular season and being the #1 seed, means a lot.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
02-24-23 03:09 AM - Post#352396
In response to PeteD
In ESPN's latest bracketology, Princeton (current NET ranking of 41) is one of the last four in, which means they would have to play a play-in game for an 11-seed or 12-seed. ESPN shows them playing Miss St for an 11-seed.
Columbia is also shown as an 11-seed, which implies they're in bubble territory too.
But here's where things get a little weird... Miami (FL) is penciled in as a 9-seed. Columbia beat Miami in Coral Gables by 7 in November, and the Lions current NET ranking is 34, compared to the Hurricanes at 49. What?!?
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: WBB Thoughts - Half Way through
02-24-23 02:59 PM - Post#352416
In response to PeteD
In ESPN's latest bracketology, Princeton (current NET ranking of 41) is one of the last four in, which means they would have to play a play-in game for an 11-seed or 12-seed. ESPN shows them playing Miss St for an 11-seed.
Columbia is also shown as an 11-seed, which implies they're in bubble territory too.
But here's where things get a little weird... Miami (FL) is penciled in as a 9-seed. Columbia beat Miami in Coral Gables by 7 in November, and the Lions current NET ranking is 34, compared to the Hurricanes at 49. What?!?
Does the women’s selection committee adjust seeds to reduce travel strain on teams? And also juggle them to avoid 1st & 2nd round matchups with conference opponents? Guessing the projection is acknowledging the latter at least may happen to keep Miami from facing another ACC team—ESPN has 7 of them in the main draw, plus Syracuse in a play-in game.
Edited by Chip Bayers on 02-24-23 03:04 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-25-23 06:51 PM - Post#352532
In response to Chip Bayers
The biggest takeaway from the weekend is that as a result of the tighter than expected Princeton win over Harvard Friday night, is that the Tigers NET Raking fell to 45 from 41 – currently 10 behind Columbia … important for Ivy Madness seeding, but even more critical for an at large NCAA bid.
How is Columbia #1
• Beat Cornell & Princeton loses to Penn
• Beat Cornell, Princeton beats Penn & Harvard beats Dartmouth – and maintains NET Raking advantage
• Lose to Cornell & Princeton loses to Penn – since Columbia swept Harvard and Princeton split
How is Princeton is #1
l
• Beat Penn & Columbia loses to Cornell
• Beat Penn & Columbia beats Cornell & Harvard loses to Dartmouth – Princeton 2-0 vs Penn, Columbia 1-1
• Beat Penn & Columbia beats Cornell – and overtakes the Lions in NET Raking advantage
How Penn is #3
• Beat Princeton
• Lose to Princeton & Harvard loses to Dartmouth
• Lose to Princeton, Harvard beats Dartmouth & Columbia beats Cornell – since Penn is 2-0 vs Yale and Harvard is 1-1
How Harvard is #3
• Beat Dartmouth, Princeton beats Penn and Cornell beats Columbia – since Harvard is 1-1 vs Princeton and Penn is 0-2
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